NSSF Report On Trump's Tariffs.

[Miami_JBT]

Note to Members Regarding Tariff Actions by the Trump Administration • NSSF

www.nssf.org

Summary from the NSSF report:

Basically, NSSF is stating that the industry can have major issues due to the Trump Slump 2.0 being multiplied with increased costs and killing foreign export markets.

Imported goods will go up in price, which will effect importers like SDS for example. But also hurt manufacturers two-fold since a lot of the basic materials for manufacturing are imported (steel, aluminum, wood, chemicals for powders, etc.) and it will strangle the export of American made firearms and products.

Lastly, high prices due to the tariffs will mean Americans will purchase less products overall.

 

[jmorris]

Basically, NSSF is stating that the industry can have major issues due to the Trump Slump 2.0 being multiplied with increased costs and killing foreign export markets.

You mean this whole time we haven't been able to find anything they have been sending it to others?

Having surplus they can't get rid of is how we get good prices, instead of "the new normal".

If you think the libs are mad at Musk, just think what they would do if Trump opens up free trade of firearms from Russa and China again. Makes me smile just thinking about it. Hey, a man can dream...

 

[KnightHawk]

Well the problem with the whole of Government is it’s been run and bastardized by Politicians and unelected Bureaucrats.
I find it refreshing to have business people making decisions. If businesses would be run like our Government has been lots of politicians and bureaucrats would be in jail.
This extends to Tariffs, we have been ripped off for years.
There will be an adjustment period for sure, but the end result will be a good one. Of course it depends on Congressional work on taxes.
It’s a dynamic issue. If it’s looked at with a static view point you will come a way with a negative view.
I don’t know about you but Government actions have caused shortages of certain items and higher costs because of agendas.
I’m going to be patient.

 

[MarshallDodge]

I found this trend by doing a quick search. It would seem that during the spikes, people purchase guns based on fear rather than need.

Maybe there isn't enough fear and panic

30+ Striking U.S. Firearm Industry Statistics [2023]: How Big Is The US Gun Industry - Zippia

Firearm industry research summary. Firearms are loved by some, and hated by others, but you can’t deny that legal firearm ownership sets the U.S. apart from any other country. From supplying the military to Walmart hunting shelves, the prevalence of firearms has created a huge industry. Knowing...

www.zippia.com

 

[Miami_JBT]

Well the problem with the whole of Government is it’s been run and bastardized by Politicians and unelected Bureaucrats.
I find it refreshing to have business people making decisions. If businesses would be run like our Government has been lots of politicians and bureaucrats would be in jail.
This extends to Tariffs, we have been ripped off for years.
There will be an adjustment period for sure, but the end result will be a good one. Of course it depends on Congressional work on taxes.
It’s a dynamic issue. If it’s looked at with a static view point you will come a way with a negative view.
I don’t know about you but Government actions have caused shortages of certain items and higher costs because of agendas.
I’m going to be patient.

Except the organization representing American businesses is saying this will hurt them.

 

[Mr. Mosin]

Except the organization representing American businesses is saying this will hurt them.

They’re saying what they’re paid to say… so who’s padding their pockets ?

 

[MarshallDodge]

It would seem that there is a bit of bias in this discussion.

I'm not seeing how a tariff on Turkish made 1911s would be a bad thing for Springfield Armory's 1911 business. Although, SA does buy foreign made guns, the XD for instance, and sells them here.

This administration is also trying to lower corporate taxes which should help the gum manufacturers.

 

[Armybrat]

This trade unfairness is not sustainable any more than the piling up of the national debt.
When I lived in Mexico during the early 1960s there was a 100% import tariff on new US automobile.

 

[AlexanderA]

The NSSF is simply stating the obvious.

 

[KnightHawk]

Wait and see. I’m not in a hurry.

 

[Speedo66]

There are many calibers where the cartridges are only made by imported brands like PPU or Fiocchi.

Hate to see the price on some of these go up 25% or more. When prices go up like that, some businesses will add their own markup.

 

[Miami_JBT]

It would seem that there is a bit of bias in this discussion.

I'm not seeing how a tariff on Turkish made 1911s would be a bad thing for Springfield Armory's 1911 business. Although, SA does buy foreign made guns, the XD for instance, and sells them here.

This administration is also trying to lower corporate taxes which should help the gum manufacturers.

SA has many of their 1911 components made by IMBEL in Brazil and a lot of their M1A parts come from the ROC.

No matter what, SA is going to be hit by the tariffs.

 

[MarshallDodge]

SA has many of their 1911 components made by IMBEL in Brazil and a lot of their M1A parts come from the ROC.

No matter what, SA is going to be hit by the tariffs.

Brazil charges a 10% tariff on US Imports.

ROC? China?

 

[sqlbullet]

Where is the "eating popcorn" gif?

I found this trend by doing a quick search. It would seem that during the spikes, people purchase guns based on fear rather than need.

Maybe there isn't enough fear and panic

View attachment 1259491

30+ Striking U.S. Firearm Industry Statistics [2023]: How Big Is The US Gun Industry - Zippia

Firearm industry research summary. Firearms are loved by some, and hated by others, but you can’t deny that legal firearm ownership sets the U.S. apart from any other country. From supplying the military to Walmart hunting shelves, the prevalence of firearms has created a huge industry. Knowing...

www.zippia.com

The trend is more that Americans are buying more guns.

Here is the same data but shown as a percentage of firearms sales:



I sourced the sales data from 247wallst and the mfg data from statista. The data for both series ends in 2022.

 

[s4s4u]

Meh.

 

[silicosys4]

Doesn't bother me in the least. Plenty of used guns still out there. I'm a believer in the long-term benefits of the current administration's economic strategies.

 

[MarshallDodge]

Where is the "eating popcorn" gif?



The trend is more that Americans are buying more guns.

Here is the same data but shown as a percentage of firearms sales:

View attachment 1259538

I sourced the sales data from 247wallst and the mfg data from statista. The data for both series ends in 2022.

That's a good chart. It's a good indicator of what happens when fear drives the purchase of a product...Clinton, Obama, and then a combo of riots, a created pandemic, and Biden.

 

[Ks5shooter]

Im good with it. Everyone fears change.The same old same old isnt working.So it needs to be done.

 

[Jim Watson]

I'm a believer in the long-term benefits of the current administration's economic strategies.

My concern is that there won't be a long term. I think the next bunch will reverse everything in short order.

 

[silicosys4]

My concern is that there won't be a long term. I think the next bunch will reverse everything in short order.

The main resistance to these economic adjustments is the older generations that are more invested in their 401K's. The younger generations by and large do not have the kind investments that are being hurt by tariffs. As the voting power of older generations who have the luxury of 401K's dwindle, the younger generations will be more likely to support reform as they have less skin in the game.

I see a lot of the younger generations supporting these changes in the hopes that housing costs will lower and blue-collar jobs will increase. They don't care about the stock market because they are too broke to invest.

 

[Walkalong]

Lets try to stay on topic, in other words how tariffs will affect firearms and accessories. We did a poor job of that last time. I know it's tough to separate it, but try.

 

[Old Dog]

At this point, I'll take anything the NSSF has to say with a grain of salt. NSSF doesn't represent all of the firearms-related businesses, only those that join as members. There are no grass-roots members of NSSF; its mission is solely to earn as much money for its member businesses as possible. NSSF isn't making any recommendations to its membership as to how to prevent passing on significant costs to consumers, simply implying doom and gloom for the industry. Which is pretty much just stating, stuff's gonna get way more expensive, but we'll still be making big profits.

Guarantee that the U.S. will figure out a way to continue importing steel, aluminum and copper until we ramp up domestic production. I see the hardest-hit portion of the industry might be the optics manufacturers but I suspect the gunmakers will survive. And given how much ammunition is being exported from the U.S., maybe we'll see some surplus from our domestic manufacturers. And I'd bet the distributors still have plenty of stock of imported ammo in their warehouses to get us through any short term pauses in importation.

From a macro-economics perspective, given a pretty substantial trade imbalance between the USA and almost all its trading partners, the tariffs make sense. And even if the tariffs serve only to get several of these countries to the bargaining table and provide some concessions to the U.S., they'll have worked.

 

[CoalTrain49]

I'll wait and see. I haven't purchased a new firearm in 10 years. Plenty of used ones out there to satisfy my needs.

Ammo, now that's a different story. My target ammo (Federal 12ga) has gone up ~20% since my last purchase 4 months ago. Now that's a substantial increase. I think it might be due to imported lead shot but I'm not sure. I'm not aware of any smelting or refining of lead here in the US. AI says there is none.

 

[Necessary_Nutrient]

Well the problem with the whole of Government is it’s been run and bastardized by Politicians and unelected Bureaucrats.
I find it refreshing to have business people making decisions. If businesses would be run like our Government has been lots of politicians and bureaucrats would be in jail.
This extends to Tariffs, we have been ripped off for years.
There will be an adjustment period for sure, but the end result will be a good one. Of course it depends on Congressional work on taxes.
It’s a dynamic issue. If it’s looked at with a static view point you will come a way with a negative view.
I don’t know about you but Government actions have caused shortages of certain items and higher costs because of agendas.
I’m going to be patient.

I know you'll hear that spewing out of the mouths of endless talk shows but it's nonsense, even if it is the official Trump Party Line.

I'm sorry, but the largest and most dynamic economy in the history of the world, which we had and even shared to an extent, wasn't built by lighting a match and throwing it on the fire. Previous Republican administrations did Republican things, of course, but generally wanted to INCREASE prosperity through proven means and could grasp consequences. They realized that, over time, tariffs distort markets, reduce economic efficiency, and stifle innovation by protecting industries from healthy competition, ultimately harming the broader economy more than they help.

If we're going to give endless goodwill and leeway to Trump no matter how ugly it gets, and based on buzzwords and endless, sunny spin-doctoring, then we're way worse than the hope + change crowd because they weren't cheering for an arsonist!

 

[tmd16556]

It will inject a level of uncertainty no business likes. Most of our big gun importers are on the ”nice list” (Turkey, Brazil) but others are on the “naughty list“ (EU, Philippines, Japan) and the bulk of production is already domestic. The GCA of 1968 was already a protectionist move (banning imports of small framed European pistols) so there is some local production already.

It’s ammo and components I’m fretting. Peruvian and Argentine birdshot; Italian, Bosnian, and Argentine primers; Belgian, Canadian, Australian, Czech powders; Serbian brass. Prices are already high enough to promote domestic investment on some of these. The blanket tariff approach isn’t as helpful here as a targeted approach could be.