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Ok, what's up with 'bird flu'?

Discussion in 'Legal' started by Fletchette, Oct 4, 2005.

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  1. Fletchette

    Fletchette Member

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    Almost every day I hear someone fretting about "bird flu". As I understand it, this disease has managed to kill a handfull of people world-wide, and all of these quasi-government health types are worried it will mutate into a strain that can be transmitted human to human.

    Aren't there a whole bunch of diseases that might mutate into something more harmful? Remember all the ruckus about swine flu years ago? What's all the hubbub about?
     
  2. 308win

    308win Member

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    I believe in a limited number of cases the virus has been documented in humans (Thailand I think) and is believed to have 'jumped' from birds to humans. The hypothesis that this virus if it were to mutate on a broad scale and jump to humans would initiate a pandemic that could spread world wide in 30 days because of the easy access to world wide travel and potentially kill 150MM. The last pandemic (Spanish Flu) killed 20+MM but I believe it took several months to spread world wide.
     
  3. rick_reno

    rick_reno member

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    It's an example of what happens when Mr. Chicken Little gets a spot on the prime time news. Do you know anyone with "bird flu"? I doubt it.
    A populace in a constant state of fear is easy to manage.
     
  4. Lone_Gunman

    Lone_Gunman Member

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    We are about 20 years overdue for a major flu pandemic. It may or may not be the bird flu. Sooner or later, it will happen, and millions will die.

    Our hospital has already stockpiled addition Tamiflu, as well as influenza vaccines.

    Its very possible though that widespread bird flu will never happen. The public health people are taking this very seriously.
     
  5. Chaz

    Chaz Member

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    What did I just hear?????

    Forget bird flu, what about this?!?!

    http://reuters.myway.com/article/20051004/2005-10-04T185015Z_01_DIT460356_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-BUSH-BIRDFLU-DC.html

    Someone remind me which country I live in. I have no words to express the shock of hearing these words from this man. Are we just children to them now? I voted for and supported this man for a long time but now I am beginning to question my choice. What is up with the nanny state bull dink?

    I guess the old maxim is true;

    "Power corrupts... absolute power corrupts absolutly"

    Scary times my friends. :banghead: :fire: :cuss: :mad:
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2005
  6. rick_reno

    rick_reno member

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    Tamiflu - why? It's reported to not be effective.
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1806010,00.html

    Experts in Hong Kong gave warning yesterday that the human H5N1 virus which surfaced in northern Vietnam this year was showing resistance to Tamiflu, the drug widely considered the best chance of protecting the population.
     
  7. marshall3

    marshall3 Member

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    totalitarianism is coming

    Totalitarianism is coming. It's not here yet, but the tide is definitely moving in that direction. What sort of USA will our grandchildren inherit from us? Can the tide be stopped? I'm pessimistic. There are just too many people in the USA who expect the Federal government to take care of them. Both the GOP and the DEMs will be happy to oblige.
     
  8. EasternShore

    EasternShore Member

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    Repeal of the Posse Comitatus Act is my boiling point. It should be everyones IMO. At that time congress critters might as well hand the president his nice little dictatorship on a silver platter. I can't believe I voted for Bush. :barf:
     
  9. Lone_Gunman

    Lone_Gunman Member

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    Because that is all there is really. We ordered this a couple of months ago, well before the article you cite was published.

    Everyone is screwed if Tamiflu doesnt work.
     
  10. Jmurman

    Jmurman Member

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    Just make sure you have food for a couple of months and practice really safe medical precautions...masks...wash hands etc.
     
  11. Kharn

    Kharn Member

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    Replace every mention of 'bird flu' with 'biological warfare' and I think you have a more accurate idea of what they're thinking about. :uhoh:

    Kharn
     
  12. Biker

    Biker Member

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    Good God, Kharn. I think you nailed it.
    Biker
     
  13. Jim March

    Jim March Member

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    Folks, this bug has a 50% mortality rate once it jumps to humans.

    Right now the only transmission method is bird-to-human. If it goes human-to-human, the reality is it'll be BAD. Could make the Spanish Influenza look like a head cold.

    Bad enough to justify use of the military.
     
  14. XLMiguel

    XLMiguel Member

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    BusinessWeek had an article about avian flu in their disaster issue (2 wks ago?). Mr March is correct, 50% mortality rate, incubation period is rumored to be 5-10 days, so if someone is carrying or contageous, it isn't immediately apparent, tracking the source could be 'interesting'. Tamiflu is also in limited supply and limited production, it has one source in Europe. Not a pretty prospect IF it makes the leap.
     
  15. Biker

    Biker Member

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    50%? Jesus....Got a link? I hope not...
    Biker
     
  16. 12-34hom

    12-34hom Member

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    Internet blasphemy

    Is the sky REALLY falling?

    From a reference about the flu to a possible dictatorship all in the matter of 15 replies to this thread....... :banghead:

    Salute, present tinfoil hats.

    12-34hom.
     
  17. Alex45ACP

    Alex45ACP Member

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    Probably initiated by our own government. What better pretext under which to launch the police state?

    Did you notice Jorge's comments about using the military to enforce qurantines?
     
  18. EasternShore

    EasternShore Member

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    Nope, not even with a 50% mortality rate. The Military's mission is to wage war. period. We have forgotten that all to often since the end of the cold war, yet it is the mission the military trains for to this day. The reason we justified a large miltary was as a deterent. Not to quarantine communities.

    Quite simply a military quarantine is going to result in even more deaths as soldiers are not trained to deal with those situations. What sort of ROE does a soldier get when pulling this duty? Shoot anyone that leaves the area? Including unarmed civilians?

    Yea that makes me feel warm and fuzzy. I'd preffer to use the same money and resources to get the DOCs, CDC, WHO rolling...At least they aren't going to shoot me.

    BTW I am a former soldier.
     
  19. Kharn

    Kharn Member

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    Easternshore:
    Every soldier is trained how to man a post, wear NBC protective equipment and not allow anyone to pass his position without proper credentials or authorization.

    Telling them to don their suits and masks, load their weapons and set up check points at all major roads crossing state lines with the intention of letting no one (or some, per the ROE, but thats not for some Private to figure out, some officer would figure that stuff out for him) pass would be easily understood by the troops. Most likely illegal, but the tasks are within the things every soldier is trained to do.

    Kharn
     
  20. EasternShore

    EasternShore Member

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    Very true, but that doesn't mean even the lowest private will execute the orders. Though many will, much like the Nazis. And when the shooting starts and makes the six o'clock news then what? Do we continue to be sheep? do we take a stand? how much of a stand can a nation make against it's own military? I suspect not enough, because once you start shooting civilians where does the military draw the line? Small arms only? Moab to "sanitize an area"? Hell nuke any infected community so as to stop the spread? How in a free country can the military be considered as part of the solution to a public health crisis?
     
  21. Byron Quick

    Byron Quick Moderator In Memoriam

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    Resistant is not necessarily equivalent to ineffective.

    A possibly infected person is leaving a quarantined area. If infected, he will infect your neighbors who will in turn infect you and your family. You really want to let him out of the quarantined area because he's unarmed? If he's infected with a virus that carries a 50% fatality rate then he's armed. Take a look at your family. Divide by 2.

    I don't want to see Posse Comitatus repealed or weakened. However, there are possible threats where quarantine is the best response for the safety of uninfected regions.

    The alternative to having quarantined infected areas is having an unquarantined infected country.
     
  22. EasternShore

    EasternShore Member

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    I am not saying a quarntine would not be needed but that is the job of local law enforcement and the Nation Guard if needed, under the control of local government. Not the repeal of Posse Comitatus. That is specifically what Bush was talking about. More important than even a quarntine is public education and notification. Remember the SARS outbreak? WHO and CDC jumped all over it and no quarantine of a state or major metropolitan area was needed. People do have common sense. Such an outbreak I suspect would scare people in to avoiding unneccesary contact and certainly make folks leary of traveling. As for infected areas and the mobility of influenza, ye speople would flee, and help would be needed to contain those fleeing. So set up medical shelters that are quarantine sites, if you wish to leave an infected area you go to that facility. Once you recieve a clean bill of health no problem continue on your way. But the US military is not needed in that situation IMO.
     
  23. Tokugawa

    Tokugawa Member

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    This has been my favorite subject for a few years now. It is always good for a "you are nuts, no-one is sick" sort of response. This is because most folks have never researched the 1918 epidemic.- go on, do a google search.
    The US alone lost six hundred thousand dead in 2 years. NY city lost thirty thousand dead. This flu was thought to have mutated from an avian flu. The death rate was about 2 percent of those infected. Translated to today, this mortality rate equates to one million, eight hundred thousand persons dead in the US. To date, the current H5N1 flu in asia is having (depending on the strain) between 20% and 100% mortality in those infected. Do the math.
    An Aleut village in Alaska , seeing the complete destruction of thier nieghboring villages from the 1918 flu, stationed riflemen to warn, then shoot, any outside visiters. They survived.

    To translate to the brethren here- to say the avian flu is not important because "no one I know has died" or " I'll believe it when I see it", is exactly the same as "don't worry, it's not loaded".
     
  24. Jim March

    Jim March Member

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    Try this google search:

    avian flu 50% mortality

    Example:

    -----------
    An even more dangerous flu is an ocean away.

    The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Washington is closely monitoring an avian flu that is spreading among birds in Russia and Asia. It has ordered mass production of a vaccine scientists believe can stop that particular strain of flu.

    "We've never seen anything like this," Webber says. "Our bodies have no immunity to it, and the current flu vaccines won't work against it. The mortality rate is 50 to 80 percent. If it ever came to the point where it could be readily transmitted person to person, we would be in big trouble."

    The World Health Organization's official count of human infection is 112 cases with 57 deaths.

    http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051004/FEAT07/510040337/1242
    -----------

    This is some serious stuff, folks. We are looking at a potential for chaos that *only* the military could possibly cope with.

    On edit: found a good factual link:

    http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100...avian-flu---facts-and-fiction--name_page.html
     
  25. dasmi

    dasmi Member

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    Wasn't SARS supposed to kill us all a few years ago?
     
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