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Possible reason some oppose legal guns in public places.

Discussion in 'Activism Discussion and Planning' started by JellyJar, Oct 27, 2009.

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  1. hso

    hso Moderator Staff Member

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    I think it's more likely based on the incorrect assumption that anyone that would want to carry a gun is going to be prone to use it in an unsafe manner and are therefore not that much different than a criminal's behavior.

    Statistics and facts don't bear this out, but keep in mind it's an assumption based on ignorance.
     
  2. duns

    duns Member

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    I've made a quick analysis for Texas.

    See http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/ConvictionRatesReport2007.pdf
    Out of 61,260 convictions, 160 (0.26%) involved CHL holders.

    From http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/admini.../PDF/ActLicAndInstr/ActiveLicandInstr2007.pdf, there were about 288,000 CHL holders.

    So the conviction rate amongst CHL holders was about 160/288000=0.056%.

    The adult population of Texas is about 16.2 million so the conviction rate generally is about 61260/16.2E6 = 0.378%.

    The ratio is about 6.75 (general adult population):1 (CHL holders).

    Many of the convictions relate to non-firearms related offenses. It would be interesting to analyze the rates by type of offense but I don't have time to do it.
     
  3. mec

    mec Member

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    The snopes link establishes that this came from a 1999 article with no citation nor any way to check to see if the figures given are correct.
     
  4. JellyJar

    JellyJar Member

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    I just received the latest issue of American Rifleman for March 2010. Starting on page 16 they have an article about how the VPC is attacking lawful concealed carry by citizens. On page 18 they state that ..

    then

     
  5. duns

    duns Member

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    JellyJar, I don't know about your first statistic but your second statistic does not appear correct. According to http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/getdoc/6dcf8a34-8940-4738-b8ac-5923642d32af/firearms_2008.aspx there were 34585 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008. The adult population of Florida is about 13.1 million. That means about 264 firearms crimes per 100000 adult residents per year. Your figure seems too high by a factor of about 10. Or was your figure of 3000 for the entire 22 year period?
     
  6. JellyJar

    JellyJar Member

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    duns

    If you have access to that issue of American Handguner I suggest that you read it.

    Please note where I quote the American Handguner on page 18 it says
    The next part of that quote is
    . It does not say firearm related crimes.

    Also these are not MY FIGURES. They are taken from that issue of the American Handguner.

    Also according to the FBI's Uniform Crime Index for 2008 for the State of Florida, Table 5, the rate of violent crime per 100,000 people is 2755.9. That is very close to the 22 year average reported in that article in the American Handguner.
     
  7. duns

    duns Member

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    According to your original quotation it was "firearm-related violent crimes".
    You said American Rifleman in your previous post.
    You've no doubt heard that 87.4% of statistics are made up? ;)
    According to my reading of Table 5 http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/data/table_05.html , the rate of violent crime in Florida is 688.5 per 100000 inhabitants.

    To compare apples with apples, you need a pair of crime statistics, one for CHL holders and one for non-CHL holders (or the adult population generally). In one of my earlier posts in this thread, I did just that for Texas based on conviction rates and came out with a ratio of 6.75:1 (general adult population:CHL holders). An earlier poster (highorder) said the generally accepted ratio is in the order of 5:1 to 7:1. I've seen similar ratios in various places on the web.
     
  8. JellyJar

    JellyJar Member

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    Duns

    You are correct. In rereading the article it does not state if the rate is per year or for the entire 22 year period. Now it appears to be for the entire 22 year period.

    Either way the per capita rate of violent crimes committed by permit holders is far, far less than the general adult population.
     
  9. JellyJar

    JellyJar Member

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    Perhaps I should wear my glasses even when I read. The magazine I have been quoting from is not the American Handguner but the American Rifleman.
     
  10. squinty

    squinty Member

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    mods please delete
     
  11. 1911Tuner

    1911Tuner Moderator Emeritus

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    For my 2% of a buck, you don't need validation or proof. Joe Citizen minding his own plate is more likely to suffer a for kicks beat down at the hands of a rat pack of gangstas on a given Saturday night than he is to be shot by a CCW permit holder...and probably most people who don't hold a permit, but carry anyway. Gang-bangers excluded, of course. They're as subject to shoot as they are to cut or bludgeon, and can't really be counted as representative citizens. They're a different breed, and respect nothing.

    My wager is that there are probably many times more unlicensed, peaceably disposed, otherwise law-abiding folks who carry a gun every day than licensed. In fact...I'd quote odds on that.
     
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