Post-Panic, Strange Market Observations

[Cosmoline]

I remember thinking back during the panic that someone could write an economics PhD thesis on the patterns that evolved in the marketplace. But if anything it's getting weirder now. And it's NOT what I expected to see. Here are a few observations from buying and selling locally and through GB and other boards. What have you folks been seeing?

--Ammo is still tight here, and if anything has gotten worse. This is probably a function of our reliance on barges. But there are dumps of ammo that come in on pallets from time to time. So for example we have a bunch of foreign 5.56 for sale at inflated prices right now. But nothing domestic

--I have NOT seen the market dump of bought-in-haste AR's and AK's yet. In fact I haven't seen many of these for sale at all. However, the prices do seem to have come back to high-normal levels.

--The demand for C&R rifles is getting nutty. I've seen auctions go crazy for the semi-rare rifles and even some pretty common ones. I had thought this was part of the overall panic, but it hasn't abated one bit. I've watched a Pole M44 climb near $700 and been outbid for a number of Berthiers that would have gone for nothing even two years ago. Everything seems to be expensive, certainly everything that has any hint of rareness to it. East German Maks are another example. I have no explanation for this, and I don't know who's buying them.

 

[Potatohead]

--I have NOT seen the market dump of bought-in-haste AR's and AK's yet. In fact I haven't seen many of these for sale at all. However, the prices do seem to have come back to high-normal levels.

i tend to think this may not happen, or will at least happen on a much smaller scale than we originally thought. So, everyone went out and bought an AR, myself included. Even when these folks see that "hey, I'm not shooting this thing that much", I think they will still hang on to it since probably 75% of us panickers just bought one to have in case their was ever an outright ban. The potential of ban is probably never going away.

Regarding ammo, I think people are still not where they want to be, quantity wise. I know I'm not. Which means it's gonna be awhile for tons of supply. JMO

 

[rdhood]

The potential of ban is probably never going away.

This. If some idiot shoots up a school tomorrow, the drumbeat for gun control/bans/etc begins anew. We have seen the ups and downs of gun/ammo prices and we can be sure that what has happened in the last 9 months will happen again... and again. The only difference is that one of these times, a ban WILL make it through. If Newtown had happened in early 2009 when the Dems had a stranglehold on Congress, I feel quite certain we would be under an AWB now. Thus, folks might have paid a bit much for their AR-15, but at least they already have their weapon of choice when the next panic happens.

p.s. And need I remind you, GWB was ready/willing to sign an AWB during his 8 years in office. Even today, all it would take is to turn a few more big-government Republicans

 

[InkEd]

In my area, prices have come down to MSRP for ARs and AKs are still above it due to lack of supply. You can find a box or two of ammo at a big box store for reasonable prices. LGS have ammo but still way too high for it.

I don't think you're going to see people dumping their rifles anytime soon. Hillary Clinton is the presumed replacement for Obama and she is very anti-gun too. (Republicans are going to have to find a REALLY strong candidate to win!) IMHO people don't feel confident in the government and have little trust in people outside their families/close friends. Until this country has another period of prosperity and people like the leadership again; I don't foresee a huge number of people selling their rifles.



I have what I like to call my "3xTLG" belief/theory.

Basically, in a crisis scenario a person must be able to fully trust:

3 (T)hings. Those 3 things have 3 (L)etters. Those 3 letter words all start with (G).

And they are your... God, Gut* and Gun.

Gut* refers to your survival instincts not your beer belly. Although, it could be included to for starvation prep. LOL

 

[VegasAR15]

The C&R stuff is just drying up and people are starting to realize it. Once a certain rifle stops being imported for the most part, there is a fixed number of them in the country and only so many of those will be available for sale at any time.

 

[GoWolfpack]

The predicted flood of post-panic ARs and AKs never happened after 2008 either. People seem to be finding other ways to pay off their credit cards and keeping their black rifles.

 

[ngnrd]

Yeah, I don't think there will be much sell-off with the 'panic' guns.

But... I was talking to the guys at Arctic Ammo the other day, and they said they were seeing a few AR's coming back. Mostly guys that overextended to get one, and now have to sell to pay the rent type of thing.

Locally at this point, we're seeing some real selection on the shelves at normal retail prices. That's good enough for me.

 

[X-Rap]

There will always be some who have overextended, that's how I have got some of my best guns from pawn shops and lgs's that sell them cheap and buy them cheaper. The ratio of panic guns sold and those turned over because they are unaffordable will remain low IMO.

 

[mdauben]

--I have NOT seen the market dump of bought-in-haste AR's and AK's yet. In fact I haven't seen many of these for sale at all. However, the prices do seem to have come back to high-normal levels.

I think part of it too may be these people who payed $2000 for an AR are finding that if they do want to sell it, they'll be lucky to get half that. Such a big loss is probably working against a lot of them getting rid of a gun they don't really need.

 

[barnbwt]

"But if anything it's getting weirder now."

I suppose it's to be expected, now that there actually exist downward forces on price (all were upward for the last 6 months or so). I'm noticing more and more variation in prices on Gunbroker; people who have no clue what to price their goods at, since the high prices no longer sell, but no one knows how fast the decay is (meanwhile that unsold stock is leaching capital from the sellers)

I see AR lowers and kits going for anywhere from ~50$ to upwards of 100$ for the same dang product. PS90's are consistently going for 1200$ on the button, when a month ago it was 1600$ --quite dramatic. Mosins from 120$ to 300$. SKS were consistently above 500$, but now my LGS has them at 450$. Does that mean a private seller should only ask 400$? Or even lower? No one knows.

We're entering yet another period of uncertainty, where the other half of the demand cycle is motivated not by panic, but by despair (though tinged with relief at the lack of passed bans, I'm sure ). Lots of folks will probably score killer deals off people who over-guess the down swing and give their product away. But since guns are durable and don't expire, there will always be less pressure to force down prices, and the lucky few will be fewer than the guys who made a killing on 800$ cosmo'ed SKSs.

TCB

 

[MattShlock]

I think this thread has well captured the sense of the issues at hand nationally.

 

[tomturkey]

I was watching the price of 22 lr on a couple of online auctions for a while. 550 bricks that were going for $80/$85 a month ago sold for $50 a couple weeks ago. I hope the hoarders enjoy shooting up the high dollar stuff and if they planed on gouging on the price down the road, Good luck.

A friend that owns a shop in central Michigan got some 22 LR in a month ago. His whosale cost was only 35 cents more that pre panic. Could he have gouged on it? Sure. Did he? NO

As Vic said he plans on being in that bussiness for a long time and values his customers to much to do that to them.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Post Panic means the Panic is history but its not. Is alive and well. Maybe not as bad as it was in March but its still a Panic. Its August and the Panic still exists its just people have learned to live with it. The pricing of ammo continues to spike upwards. The pro shop at the local outdoor range is selling WWB 100
count 45acp for $70.25. Granted one does not have to pay sales tax and members get 10% off the price is still high. Ammo prices continue to climb with no relief in sight.

 

[Deltaboy1984]

22's is like hens teeth here in DFW ,AR' s are back under 1200 bucks in most Wal-Mart's.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Out here in West Texas we are getting 22lr. In fact this morning Academy had Remington buckets (8) and CCI standatd velocity 100 count boxes (25) on the shelf. Not a whole lot but some.

 

[Mainsail]

The people who panic-bought their $900 AR-15 for $1600 are going to be sick to their stomach when they try to sell it on the used market for $750, even if it’s unfired.

 

[benEzra]

The people who panic-bought their $900 AR-15 for $1600 are going to be sick to their stomach when they try to sell it on the used market for $750, even if it’s unfired.

I doubt many of those rifles were bought with the intent of selling them later.

 

[Old Fuff]

Until such time that the Supreme Courts rules that a Constitutionally protected civil right may be reasonably regulated, but not banned – which may or may not happen – people are going to keep their arms and ammunition close at hand. During this country’s entire history I don’t think that people’s trust of the government has ever been lower. Big Brother is no longer seen as a friend, and economic uncertainty stirs the pot.

 

[sarge83]

Quite a few AR's on the shelves at my local gun/pawn and prices seem to have dropped to pre-panic levels. AK's however are rare and are still commanding a premium for some reason.

Ammo is sparse and expensive when you can find it.

 

[Hoppes Love Potion]

I had to laugh at an ammo seller at a recent gun show. With bricks priced at $75 and $80 and a box/50 at $10, he wasn't getting much traffic.

I passed his table and went on to the next one, when he shouts, "This isn't a museum, folks! We're here to sell ammo - make an offer!"

So, he moved some bricks at $60 and $65. The free market in action.

 

[HoosierQ]

In my area, prices have come down to MSRP for ARs and AKs are still above it due to lack of supply. You can find a box or two of ammo at a big box store for reasonable prices. LGS have ammo but still way too high for it.

I don't think you're going to see people dumping their rifles anytime soon. Hillary Clinton is the presumed replacement for Obama and she is very anti-gun too. (Republicans are going to have to find a REALLY strong candidate to win!) IMHO people don't feel confident in the government and have little trust in people outside their families/close friends. Until this country has another period of prosperity and people like the leadership again; I don't foresee a huge number of people selling their rifles.



I have what I like to call my "3xTLG" belief/theory.

Basically, in a crisis scenario a person must be able to fully trust:

3 (T)hings. Those 3 things have 3 (L)etters. Those 3 letter words all start with (G).

And they are your... God, Gut* and Gun.

Gut* refers to your survival instincts not your beer belly. Although, it could be included to for starvation prep. LOL

Not wishing to be contrary...but Hillary is the real deal. She's the dyed in the wool gun control advocate from the get go. The current administration, despite much discussion, is not that. Hillary is the real deal.

 

[Potatohead]

I doubt many of those rifles were bought with the intent of selling them later.

Thats what I'm thinkin'

 

[Mainsail]

^^^ I was addressing the comments about not seeing a lot of the panic guns on the used market.

 

[goon]

There is an attempted dump at panic prices of semi-auto rifles going on right now. There are guys trying to sell M&P Sports at the $1,200 they paid for them... but there are also Colt 6920's at the local Walmart for about $1,100. Guess which one I'd spend my money on.
Ammo is available here now and rationing is only enforced on a very few things. I could have walked out of either LGS today with 500 rounds of 9mm or 5.56 with no trouble. But there is no .22 to be had locally.

 

[newfalguy101]

--I have NOT seen the market dump of bought-in-haste AR's and AK's yet. In fact I haven't seen many of these for sale at all. However, the prices do seem to have come back to high-normal levels.

Come Christmas time I suspect many of those guns will come out of the closet and onto the open market