[Scenario-Your Opinion] % Chance of 1-Shot Stop With .40 JHP Through the Heart From A Full Size Gun?

Discussion in 'Handguns: General Discussion' started by LookAtYou, May 17, 2022.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    No.

    85% of human beings who are shot with a handgun survive the experience

    In order to get the right answer you have to ask the right question.

    Are you asking if 40 Smith & Wesson is an effective caliber or are you asking for validation of your choice to carry a glock 22?
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2022
    Demi-human, TarDevil and 481 like this.
  2. DeepSouth
    • Contributing Member

    DeepSouth Random Guy

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2009
    Messages:
    4,370
    Location:
    Heart of Dixie (AL)
    I just want to point out that how far the deer runs in a hunting scenario can be of extreme importance, the thicker the woods the more important in my experience. However when comparing that to a self defense situation what matters is how long before the loss of motor skills.

    Deer can cover a couple hundred yards in seconds, if your attacker is incapacitated in those few seconds that’s about as good as one can expect to do. An armed man can indeed put out a massive amount of destruction in a few seconds, but “instant” isn’t a realistic goal, imo. Not that anyone suggested it was.

    Think of it this way of the heart shot deer you killed what’s the longest you've seen one live, myself, that’d probably be single digit seconds, but I’m normally behind the heart a little. My list of direct heart shots is short.
     
  3. CapnMac

    CapnMac Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2009
    Messages:
    13,691
    Location:
    DFW (formerly Brazos County), Texas
    Premise is flawed on several counts.

    if you are in fear of your life, you don't take a shot and wait and see what effect it had. It's probably going to be psycho-physiologically impossible with the adrenaline loading in any event.

    In all likelihood, both you and the threat are moving, so the ability to focus on something as small as a fist is unlikely, too.

    Given the adrenaline, near any round through the center of the heart is going to be fatal. But, it may not be incapacitating (ref above, ad naus.)

    You shoot to stop the threat. That does not require the threat to die per se, only to stop being a threat.

    Further, very little in life is sure. Things assumed to be "100%" will not be so. Murphy is the son of a female dog and is in every corner.
     
    Demi-human and Night Rider like this.
  4. CDW4ME

    CDW4ME Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2009
    Messages:
    2,712
    Location:
    FL USA
    Person potentially has ~10 seconds voluntary hostile activity after that heart shot to shoot / stab.
    This was from a 10mm 155 XTP - the deer ran about 30 yards (ETA: on 3 legs) and fell over; if he had a gun he could have shot back at me instead.
    A quarter is .95
    Delta Deer pic2.jpg
     
    Night Rider likes this.
  5. Old Dog

    Old Dog Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2004
    Messages:
    8,883
    Location:
    on Puget Sound
    Only three pages so far? On this vitally important subject? Seriously though (and no disrespect intended toward any of the thoughtful, well-meaning posters here), but didn't we decide all this back in 1990 (or whenever it was that the FBI decreed that .40 S&W was the new miracle caliber)?

    That'd be my question, too, but personlly, I'd be looking for more expert advice than from us anonymous denizens of the interwebs, even though we all have cool screen-names...

    All of the ballistic research results are out there, and studies of actual results on the streets have been done.
     
    Demi-human, Blue Jays and Night Rider like this.
  6. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    Lost River could have done it better. JCN could have done it with a. 380 with no sights
     
    CDW4ME likes this.
  7. LookAtYou

    LookAtYou Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2020
    Messages:
    225
    I basically asked out of 10 times, how many times would a .40 to the heart be lethal. Just one. Very specific, I know. All the way down to the ammo and gun. Seems like most people say 9 or 10 times.

    All other things taken away from this question is to each their own.
     
  8. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    Killing your assailant isn't the goal, stopping him from being a threat is. 99 out of a hundred times making it clear that you're armed and willing to fight will do that without firing a shot. Which makes caliber irrelevant.

    If you want to carry a Glock 22 carry a Glock 22.

    Let your freak flag fly
     
    Blue Jays, Mike J and TarDevil like this.
  9. LookAtYou

    LookAtYou Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2020
    Messages:
    225
    What makes it unremarkable at this point in time, to you?
     
  10. Frank Ettin

    Frank Ettin Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    12,647
    Location:
    California - San Francisco Bay Area
    How is a question like this reducible to a mere matter of opinion? And what would be the value of any opinion on the matter unless solidly backed up with hard, credible data?

    There is data, and there are studies, and we have a good deal of knowledge about wound physiology. What all that shows with regard to self defense could be summarized as follows:

    1. Pretty much every cartridge ever made has at times succeeded at quickly stopping an assailant.

    2. Pretty much every cartridge ever made has at times failed at quickly stopping an assailant.

    3. Considering ballistic gelatin performance, data available on real world incidents, an understanding of wound physiology and psychology, certain cartridges with certain bullets are more likely to be more effective more of the time.

    4. For defensive use in a handgun the 9mm Luger, .38 Special +P, .40 S&W, .45 ACP, .357 Magnum, and other, similar cartridges when of high quality manufacture, and loaded with expanding bullets appropriately designed for their respective velocities to both expand and penetrate adequately, are reasonably good choices.

    5. And that's probably as good as we can do.

    Let's consider how shooting someone will actually cause him to stop what he's doing.

    • The goal is to stop the assailant.

    • There are four ways in which shooting someone stops him:

      • psychological -- "I'm shot, it hurts, I don't want to get shot any more."

      • massive blood loss depriving the muscles and brain of oxygen and thus significantly impairing their ability to function

      • breaking major skeletal support structures

      • damaging the central nervous system.

      Depending on someone just giving up because he's been shot is iffy. Probably most fights are stopped that way, but some aren't; and there are no guarantees.

      Breaking major skeletal structures can quickly impair mobility. But if the assailant has a gun, he can still shoot. And it will take a reasonably powerful round to reliably penetrate and break a large bone, like the pelvis.

      Hits to the central nervous system are sure and quick, but the CNS presents a small and uncertain target. And sometimes significant penetration will be needed to reach it.

      The most common and sure physiological way in which shooting someone stops him is blood loss -- depriving the brain and muscles of oxygen and nutrients, thus impairing the ability of the brain and muscles to function. Blood loss is facilitated by (1) large holes causing tissue damage; (2) getting the holes in the right places to damage major blood vessels or blood bearing organs; and (3) adequate penetration to get those holes into the blood vessels and organs which are fairly deep in the body. The problem is that blood loss takes time. People have continued to fight effectively when gravely, even mortally, wounded. So things that can speed up blood loss, more holes, bigger holes, better placed holes, etc., help.

      So as a rule of thumb --

      • More holes are better than fewer holes.

      • Larger holes are better than smaller holes.

      • Holes in the right places are better than holes in the wrong places.

      • Holes that are deep enough are better than holes that aren't.

      • There are no magic bullets.

      • There are no guarantees.

    • With regard to the issue of psychological stops see

      • this study, entitled "An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power" by Greg Ellifritz. And take special notice of his data on failure to incapacitate rates set out in the table headed "Here are the results."

        As Ellifritz notes in his discussion of his "failure to incapacitate" data (emphasis added):

        • There are two sets of data in the Ellifritz study: incapacitation and failure to incapacitate. They present some contradictions.

          • Considering the physiology of wounding, the data showing high incapacitation rates for light cartridges seems anomalous.

          • Furthermore, those same light cartridges which show high rates of incapacitation also show high rates of failures to incapacitate. In addition, heavier cartridges which show incapacitation rates comparable to the lighter cartridges nonetheless show lower failure to incapacitate rates.

          • And note that the failure to incapacitate rates of the 9mm Luger, .40 S&W, .45 ACP, and .44 Magnum were comparable to each other.

          • If the point of the exercise is to help choose cartridges best suited to self defense application, it would be helpful to resolve those contradictions.

          • A way to try to resolve those contradictions is to better understand the mechanism(s) by which someone who has been shot is caused to stop what he is doing.

        • The two data sets and the apparent contradiction between them (and as Ellifritz wrote) thus strongly suggest that there are two mechanisms by which someone who has been shot will be caused to stop what he is doing.

          • One mechanism is psychological. This was alluded to by both Ellifritz and FBI agent and firearms instructor Urey Patrick. Sometimes the mere fact of being shot will cause someone to stop. When this is the stopping mechanism, the cartridge used really doesn't matter. One stops because his mind tells him to because he's been shot, not because of the amount of damage the wound has done to his body.

          • The other mechanism is physiological. If the body suffers sufficient damage, the person will be forced to stop what he is doing because he will be physiologically incapable of continuing. Heavier cartridges with large bullets making bigger holes are more likely to cause more damage to the body than lighter cartridges. Therefore, if the stopping mechanism is physiological, lighter cartridges are more likely to fail to incapacitate

        • And in looking at any population of persons who were shot and therefore stopped what they were doing, we could expect that some stopped for psychological reasons. We could also expect others would not be stopped psychologically and would not stop until they were forced to because their bodies became physiologically incapable of continuing.

        • From that perspective, the failure to incapacitate data is probably more important. That essentially tells us that when Plan A (a psychological stop) fails, we must rely on Plan B (a physiological stop) to save our bacon; and a heavier cartridge would have a lower [Plan B] failure rate.

      • Also see the FBI paper entitled "Handgun Wounding Factors and Effectiveness", by Urey W. Patrick. Agent Patrick, for example, notes on page 8:
      • And for some more insight into wound physiology and "stopping power":

        • Dr. V. J. M. DiMaio (DiMaio, V. J. M., M. D., Gunshot Wounds, Elsevier Science Publishing Company, 1987, pg. 42, as quoted in In Defense of Self and Others..., Patrick, Urey W. and Hall, John C., Carolina Academic Press, 2010, pg. 83):

        • And further in In Defense of Self and Others... (pp. 83-84, emphasis in original):

        • And further in In Defense of Self and Others... (pp. 95-96, emphasis in original):

      And sometimes a .357 Magnum doesn't work all that well. LAPD Officer Stacy Lim who was shot in the chest with a .357 Magnum and still ran down her attacker, returned fire, killed him, survived, and ultimately was able to return to duty. She was off duty and heading home after a softball game and a brief stop at the station to check her work assignment. According to the article I linked to:
     
  11. LookAtYou

    LookAtYou Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2020
    Messages:
    225
    What's with insult? Also, you think I'm looking to carry a G22?
     
  12. Shawn Dodson

    Shawn Dodson Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2002
    Messages:
    2,657
    "Aggressive action by a determined adversary can be stopped reliably and immediately using a handgun only by a shot that disrupts the brain or upper spinal cord. Even the most disruptive heart wound cannot be relied upon to prevent aggression before 10 to 15 seconds have elapsed." - Dr. Martin L. Fackler, COL, USA; Wound Ballistic Workshop, FBI Academy; September 15 - 17, 1987; "9mm VS .45 Auto"; p. 8.

    Link to paper - https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://forum.afte.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=11085.0;attach=29687&ved=2ahUKEwj2tOeJkOr3AhWEIH0KHY8xBxwQFnoECAgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1YPaJOM0PEBkWiUVRiqag0
     
    epags and Night Rider like this.
  13. TarDevil

    TarDevil Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2009
    Messages:
    2,374
    Location:
    NC Coast
    This is, I think, the third thread you've started about the magic of the .40 S&W. People get punch drunk with repetitiveness.

    I have to ask myself why I'm even reading and responding... again.
     
    Demi-human, Blue Jays and Night Rider like this.
  14. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    What insult?

    Perhaps I misread your first post.
     
    Demi-human likes this.
  15. LookAtYou

    LookAtYou Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2020
    Messages:
    225
    The flag comment.
     
  16. Archie

    Archie Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2002
    Messages:
    3,830
    Location:
    Hastings, Nebraska - the Heartland!
    This asinine claim is based on the myth the officers and agents carrying sidearms can choose their own weapons. While I suppose there are some departments and agencies that allow officers to choose their own weapons, the great majority of agencies and departments dictate what arms may be carried either on or off duty. The choice of arm is not determined by vote of the officers or anything near that system. Arms are generally selected by some official of the agency or the sponsoring level of government usually on the basis of cost versus merchandise (guns) and services (gunsmith support and training).
    Also from official releases from a federal government agency and the discussions of some superiors in the agencies I have served, the ability to qualify on the 'official' qualification course is far more important than stopping power. Not to mention training employees to shoot is far too expensive.

    Some truth to that first statement. The smaller caliber handguns are really bad at stopping. From time to time, an incident occurs wherein a villain is not incapacitated with a proper shot. One points out the same thing happens with victims of rifle shots as well.
    But a policeman or other lawman usually has only a handgun at his (or her) disposal. Calling in air strikes or artillery fire simply isn't done.
     
  17. Electricmo

    Electricmo Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2020
    Messages:
    440
    Something about this thread is disturbing.
     
  18. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    I meant if you want a Glock 22 get one
     
    Demi-human likes this.
  19. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    And that's as far as I got
     
    Demi-human and TarDevil like this.
  20. Mosin77

    Mosin77 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2019
    Messages:
    962
    A .40 to the heart of a human is going to be fatal 10/10 times, barring a miracle. And miracles do occasionally occur.

    IF you succeed in hitting your assailant with your .40, in the heart, he. will. die. The only question is if he will drop instantly or if he will continue his hostile behavior for a short time before succumbing to his injury.
     
    epags and LookAtYou like this.
  21. LookAtYou

    LookAtYou Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2020
    Messages:
    225
    Would you be surprised if others disagreed with you in this thread? Or thought all handguns are terrible at best, and one needs a rifle for any effect to be had?
     
  22. Frulk

    Frulk Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2018
    Messages:
    939
    I have no strong opinion on the .40 S&W. I own a couple. Because I shoot them as well as any 9mm I owned on the occasion I carry a semi automatic it’s in that caliber. Only because it makes a bigger hole. If I shot my 9mms noticeably better than the .40’s I’d carry one of them.

    About the heart shot.

    Hold your breath. The reason you don’t pass out right away is because your heart is still pumping oxygenated blood. Until you have exhausted that 02 supply you will stay conscious.

    About the lung shot. If it’s into the lung and no other internal damage is taken the individual could be a threat for some time. Remember, there are two lungs and even with only one functioning correctly there’s enough 02 available to maintain conscious thought.

    Lets say you get that clean heart shot and it stops functioning immediately. Meaning not beating and 02 saturated blood is not being moved from the lungs into the arteries. The result of that would be about like this:

    Watch a UFC fight when someone is getting choked out. It’s much like what happens in a heart attack or in your shot example. Blood is no longer being moved as the choke constricts arteries trying to bring the 02 to maintain consciousness. Seems unless they tap most folks go under after the lock on in about 8 seconds or so. Of course, with the kinetic energy of the round in a situation like that even if someone was conscious for that length of time their ability to remain a viable threat will likely significantly diminish over that short period.

    I doubt that in your stated scenario it will matter if the firearm used is a 9mm or .40

    Not sure if that explains it any better than what’s been said before.
     
    Demi-human, Blue Jays and Night Rider like this.
  23. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
     
  24. Night Rider

    Night Rider Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2022
    Messages:
    441
    Someone actually put me in a chokehold once as a demonstration. I tapped out before I passed out but it only took about 4 seconds before I was incapable of fighting back.

    And with that, I truly am out
     
  25. Mosin77

    Mosin77 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2019
    Messages:
    962
    Yes, I would be surprised if anyone truly disagreed with me. Because your scenario is very specific.

    In your exact specific scenario, a .40 would be fatal 10/10 times. But it leads to some ancillary questions: A) Can you be sure to hit the heart? B) Do you have contingency plans for how to handle a possible delay in incapacitation when it may take a few seconds for the shot’s fatal effects to be felt? C) Would another caliber or weapons platform achieve the same effect with greater controllability, lesser cost, or more margin of error should your shot miss? That’s what causes this thread to be 3 pages. Most folks are positing that a .40 will do exactly what you ask BUT it’s immaterial in the real world because you can’t be guaranteed a heart shot. A rifle may incapacitate faster in real life due to greater surrounding tissue destruction or hydrostatic shock or some other wounding mechanism.
     
    LookAtYou likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice