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Seriously, what is with the falling prices of firearms

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by george burns, Jun 21, 2015.

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  1. Cee Zee

    Cee Zee member

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    $99 in 1992, which is when I bought my SKS for that very price, is worth $164.57 in today's money. Inflation matters. When I can buy a Taurus pistol that I know is good with a lifetime warranty and isn't a milsurp for $200 I don't think it's that far off of the deal I got on my SKS. Not far at all. It might even be a better deal.
     
  2. SSN Vet

    SSN Vet Member

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    HC will most definitely get the DNC nom. They are going to brow beat and intimidate any and all Dem opposition. BHO and HC made their pact 8 years ago, and now it's being acted upon.

    Jeb Bush will sink the Republicans, as no one will ever vote for a Bush again....

    Too many horses in the Republican race, and if they start slinging mud at each other HC will just sit back and let them elect her with their own stupidity .... remember the Reagan Rule? They need to resurrect it.

    HC will most definitely push for gun control. It's just a question of whether she lies about it and waits until after the election, or makes it her platform.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2015
  3. CLP

    CLP member

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    The calm before the storm. Elections are right around the corner. Get it while the gettin's good.
     
  4. Garrobo

    Garrobo Member

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    Don't worry

    about it. If it even remotely looks like Klinton or Sanders will run for the presidency that the price of guns will go up. At least that is what I am banking on. I've been buying one AR-15 a month so's to stockpile them before the election for resale. I did this before the last election and made quit a profit. I can't thank the Democrat party enough though we ended up with the &%$#@ in the WH for four more years.
     
  5. CoalTrain49

    CoalTrain49 Member

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    Gun mfg's see a perfect storm coming. I read the other day that the FBI is starting to get a lot of data from state health care professionals regarding treatment of disorders. One's ability to purchase from a dealer is becoming more difficult all the time. New laws requiring longer waiting periods are going to have an affect on gun sales. Pretty soon a delay will be common and you will get to wait while the state processes all of the information they have about you. Then they get to decide (not the FBI) if you get a proceed. Restraining order or court date will qualify you for a denial. I get to wait for days even with a license to carry concealed.

    I sure as heck wouldn't want to be a gun dealer now. They have a lot of time wrapped up in getting a buyer cleared for a purchase. Lots of times a buyer will walk out on a purchase if they get a delay. No body wants to go back 10 days later to pick up a gun they should have when they decided to buy it.

    And the market is saturated as was stated above. Too many guns, not enough buyers.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2015
  6. Ed Ames

    Ed Ames Member

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    Having lived in CA which has had 10 day waits forever, and has always been more active about state level background checks and health info, I don't buy that.

    The reality is that about 1% of background checks result in a denial, and increasing the number of mental health records used in checks probably won't change that. Why not? Because being involuntary committed to a mental hospital is not something most people forget. Even in California where a junior police officer bringing you in for a 5150 evaluation triggers a 5-year infringement on your RKBA, there is enough process and procedure involved that you will know if it has happened to you. To trigger the federaplaystriction requires civil commitment which means a judge is involved. You will know if it has happened to you.

    As for 10 day waits, leave California.

    That isn't what I see it the stores. I see not enough guns.

    I have said this before, but I'll repeat it anyway. In my area there are two types of stores. The old stores are shrinking their counter space, cutting inventory, and in general feel like they are going out of business. Then there are new stores, and there are a LOT of new stores, that have plenty of guns, many customers, and they seem busy.

    I don't believe this is a matter of the old stores wanting to die and give the market over to new players. I think the old stores are caught up in a self-fulfilling prophecy. They think the market is going to collapse, so they scale back inventory and cut corners to "run lean", and as a result they fail at the first rule of retail: retail is entertainment. People want to have fun seeing the guns, even the absurd guns they will never buy. They don't want to role play anti-soviet propaganda from the early 80s about stores with bare shelves. The result, of course, is that they are going to die...leaving the market for the new stores.
     
  7. WestKentucky

    WestKentucky Member

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    Handguns seem to be following the same trend set by rifles. One type has a high demand...bolt action rifle, polymer pistol...So everybody jumps on that bandwagon and fights for marketshare driving prices down through heavy competition. The smaller segments with static markets (lever rifles, single shot rifles, revolvers, steel frame autos (1911)) have little or no change. The latest/greatest (AR, compact defense gun) designs go from novelty category with extravagant features and prices to a neutered version sold at a discount just to enhance the market and pull it out of the novelty range. The one thing that is common among all the types of weapons is that manufacturers have entered the market over the last few years due to a boom in demand. Everybody still wants their marketshare to be enough to sustain a business, and with the boom winding down companies are settling for smaller margins just to survive a flooded market. We haven't seen a mass extinction event yet for gun companies, but we are seeing signs of trouble from a bunch...colt and remington to name two huge players. I'm no clairvoyant but I would not be suprised to see a lot more small companies sell out, and a few close up shop completely, especially in highly competitive markets where there is no standout reason for them to keep a foothold.
     
  8. ApacheCoTodd

    ApacheCoTodd member

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    Pretty clear to me.

    Have you noted the stale inventory on dealers tables and in cases?

    Lots of folks are still prioritizing ammo these days and why not... what good's a car without gas?

    Todd.
     
  9. Ignition Override

    Ignition Override Member

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    People either have what they can afford, or if waiting for the 2016 election or next mass tragedy because they can't make their own decisions sooner.

    Many of them (some become new gun owners, or the legal age 21) prefer to be on the trailing edges of the next panicked stampeding herd.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2015
  10. Aragon

    Aragon member

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    There's another issue that I haven't seen mentioned. Fear and uncertainty caused a great number of people to accelerate future purchases. In other words they might have one day bought a firearm (anything from a basic .22 rifle to a self-defense firearm), but instead, they did it now.

    That strips out a lot of future demand that helped fuel the historic high, but have also left a future pit.
     
  11. Aragon

    Aragon member

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    It could also be that many already have what they want.
     
  12. Ryanxia

    Ryanxia Member

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    For those that said otherwise, it's worth stating that it's pretty clear there IS a saturation level at least when it comes to AR-15's. They have dipped below pre-panic prices (maybe not at your local shop but online). When you can get a milspec PSA with the same M4 profile barrel, dust cover and forward assist for $430 shipped it's hard to beat. I see people putting their used plain jane AR's up for $700+ and they wonder why it's not selling. 'But it's got a quad rail on it!' They'll say :)

    Ammo is also cheaper than it was pre-panic. So like others have said, now is the time to buy. Make it hurt :D

    The observation someone made about AK's going up/not going down is pretty interesting, I wonder why that is also. The new Century Arms US made AK's are pretty sweet and have run good so far that I've seen. You'd think the imports would at least take a slight dip back down to $395 or so.
     
  13. CoalTrain49

    CoalTrain49 Member

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    I'm talking about anyone who sees a mental health professional for any reason. Those records are being transferred to the FBI in increasing numbers and more people are being denied everyday. I know someone who was denied after having numerous proceeds. He doesn't have a clue why it happened. The part that sucks is you won't know why and they won't tell you. Who gets to decide and what is the criteria, nobody knows. States are receiving federal funds to send your health care information to the FBI.

    I will yield to your assertion that the number of denials hasn't changed significantly if you would please support that with a reference. Here's mine.

    http://everytown.org/documents/2014/10/closing-the-gaps.pdf

    http://swtimes.com/news/oklahoma-slow-release-mental-health-records-fbi-prevent-gun-sales-dangerous-people

    This isn't just propaganda. I've seen this reported in other places also.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2015
  14. Ryanxia

    Ryanxia Member

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    I could be wrong but I thought when someone gets a denial they are given a number to call and it will be explained the reason of the denial? But I think we're getting off topic a bit. Bottom line, BUY MORE GUNS. ;)
     
  15. sirgilligan

    sirgilligan Member

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    I am glad the prices are coming down. Maybe this will bust some of the myths out there that the cost of a quality firearm is twice that of the lesser firearms. Yes, it may cost a little more, but not 1.5x to 2.0x more. ( I am talking production firearms, not hand fitted customs. )

    Sounds like a good time to replace some well worn range pistols, and to get the kids or grand kids something for their birthday.
     
  16. jrdolall

    jrdolall Member

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    Virtually every gun manufacturer was running full tilt two years ago and eventually the market has become saturated, especially with the likes of Glock, S&W Shield and other, similar pistols. I mean, who doesn't make a striker fired polymer pistol?
    I will buy about 5 NIB 9mm pistols as prices get down a little more and I will simply put them up in the box. For the rest of MY life I expect 9mm to be my "go to" round so I plan to invest in that caliber in guns, ammo and reloading supplies as my primary firearms related purchases. No doubt I will still buy some other guns as they appeal to me as well.

    I tried the Glock 43 last week at a rental range and was not impressed. It was, as expected, dead reliable and easy to operate but it didn't feel good in my hand.
     
  17. Ed Ames

    Ed Ames Member

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    Federal law on why people are delayed or denied is fairly clear. Simply going to a mental health professional is not sufficient to strip your RKBA. You must be adjudicated as incompetent (meaning a judge or the like signed papers) or involuntary committed (meaning, again, a judge, board, etc was involved).

    At the state level the rules vary widely. A good snapshot here:
    http://www.ncsl.org/research/civil-and-criminal-justice/possession-of-a-firearm-by-the-mentally-ill.aspx

    You can see that Texas has among the more restrictive standards, but that is for getting a concealed carry license.


    https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/appeals/nics-appeals-process/reasons-nics-background-checks-are-denied-or-delayed

    Regarding percentages, it appears that the number was under 1% for 2012 (most recent year reported) but sift through this:
    https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/2012-operations-report/nics-operations-report-2012#Federal Denials
     
  18. cfullgraf

    cfullgraf Member

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    Lately, I have been getting inundated with e-advertisements from the various gun emporiums that I frequent. That indicates to me that they are flush with inventory that they need to move to avoid paying inventory taxes.

    I suspect that all those back orders the vendors made with their suppliers are catching up and sales are getting soft.

    The AR-15 price reductions is a single example.
     
  19. wojownik

    wojownik Member

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    For a number of reasons, various firearms categories have been in a pricing bubble for the past number of years. Some of the air is seeping out of that bubble.

    With ARs, strong production may be colliding with softening demand.

    With 1911s, there is an additional driver of Colt lowering prices, putting downward pressure on some other production level 1911 brands.

    I think you need to look at the causes from category to category.
     
  20. wally

    wally Member

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    I see lots of guns that I already have at some very good prices (after a bit of shopping), most are still priced a bit more than I paid, but maybe not factoring in inflation on some of the ones I've had for 10 years or more.

    The new guns I'm looking to buy are scarce, and priced at MSRP or even a bit above when I do see them. I just hope supply catches up on these before the next panic.

    Of course some other new guns I was interested in turned out to be duds like the Walther CCP Beretta Pico, and Remington R51.

    The relatively new HK VP and SIG 320 pistols came on the market with aggressive prices compared to other guns they sell. Competition is good for us!


    Getting .22lr ammo supply and prices "back to normal" (be sceptical of new normals) will do more to jump start the gun business than about anything else -- I see lots of great deals on .22lr guns but few buyers simply because the economy of shooting them is not there and getting a decent amount of ammo for them is a hassle. The .22lr is the gateway to a lifetime of shooting enjoyment, if its gone we'll likely lose the next generation of shooters which will make it much harder to fight off the anti's.
     
  21. Ed Ames

    Ed Ames Member

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    That is very much my experience.

    The bubble prices were pretty much meaningless to me. I wasn't going to pay $2500 for an AR anyway. The lack of availability affected me directly.


    At this point we are post- or inter-bubble in many categories, but a lot of production capacity and capital shifted towards taking advantage of the bubble. Gun makers shut down production lines to increase production of bubble guns.

    If I look at the guns I would buy, much of that inventory cleared out in 2008 or so, the production was slowed to favor other products, and here in 2015 it is just really hard to find.



    Very much so, and not every category is moving in the same direction.

    I saw an RIA 1911 in a local shop's counter the other day for $739. That is a full $200 more than I paid for a similar (not quite as nice) RIA a couple years ago.
     
  22. Quentin

    Quentin Member

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    This is an important point of view. There are a lot of people on the fence about buying a first gun so we must help anyone we know in this situation make a wise decision. Our experience is invaluable to a novice friend so we must be patient and helpful. Be good examples of gun owners. We want the gun owning population to grow and we need these new owners to safely and competently operate their new purchase. And encourage their friends. Definitely point out prices of quality guns are low at this time which should encourage sales to new people.
     
  23. CoalTrain49

    CoalTrain49 Member

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    In addition to federally prohibitive criteria, the NICS must delay or deny firearm transfers based on applicable state law. This from the FBI website.

    State laws change every year. The AG crowd is on a roll getting state laws changed. The law recently changed in WA and OR.

    If you honestly believe that this isn't becoming a bigger problem for the gun buying public then I'm not going to change your mind. If it happens in your state you'll probably wake up.

    By the way this link http://www.ncsl.org/research/civil-and-criminal-justice/possession-of-a-firearm-by-the-mentally-ill.aspx is 2 1/2 years old.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2015
  24. Ignition Override

    Ignition Override Member

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    Aragon: True, and the numerous, mostly middle-aged gun owners with whom I work seldom tell me that they are looking for another gun.
    Almost none are collectors or enthusiasts, and most have young children as their focus.

    But many of us only see the excuses used by the President and his ATF careerist Apparatchiks/Nomenklatura to threaten the Second Amendment,
    and blocking imports seems much easier than going after any domestic production category or specific type. This was part of the motivation for my three Makarovs, two P-83s and a CZ-82 bought since late April.

    The more gradual the process of banning certain imports, the less it is noticed by the general population or the vast majority of gun owners.
    The majority seem to consider foreign guns to be Excluded from protections of the Second Amendment.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2015
  25. JSH1

    JSH1 Member

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    Aragon hit the nail on the head. Many of the sales that fueled the boom in 2009 and 2010 were "stolen" from future sales. People that were considering purchasing an AR or handgun bought that gun a few years ago so they have no need to purchase one today.
     
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