Shortage - Where are the ammo component inventories going?

[rajbcpa]

OK, so we have been living through an ammo component inventory shortage of primers, then smokeless powder, then brass, and finally projectiles for past 8 to 10 months now.

I think it is understood that manufacturers like Winchester, CCI, Federal, Tula and the like are flat out making as much inventory as possible. However, my LGS tells me that their orders to these suppliers are very very slow or the orders are not being filled at all.

So where is the inventory going?

Is this as simple as the component inventory is going to fill the US government's agencies unusually high completed ammo purchase requests?

Is the inventory going to commercial ammo makers who are trying to satisfy the newly created elevated demand for completed commercial ammo from the public?

What seems very strange to me is that the folks in Europe and Asia, South America etc. are not having any unusual supply disruption problems. If that is the case, why aren't supplies that are going to those markets being diverted to ease the supply issues in the USA?

SOMETHING HERE SMELLS FISHY TO ME.

 

[edfardos]

The department of homeland security has orders for 1.6 billion rounds of hollow point ammo (which can only be used domestically per the Geneva convention). That's enough ammo to wage an active war in their jurisdiction for 30 years.

Fatherland, motherland, now homeland.

The reality is that there are 230 million guns owned by citizens, say each gun has 100 rounds with it, that's 23 billion rounds owned by The People. A sudden real or perceived demand for ammo will immediately overwhelm supply.

Edfardos

 

[BYJO4]

I think the commercial manufacturers are getting the bulk at this point in an attemp to catch supply up with demand. Next, are the very large wholesale buyers who get priority because of their huge orders. However, they are then filing all the back orders that they have accumulated. Once backorders have been taken care of, we will see supplies returning to normal.

 

[frankenstein406]

If you were watching auction sites not only guns were going for crazy prices but also reloading equipment. I think the new reloaders are trying to stockpile and the people with stockpiles were only selling when the price was high further increasing the "shortage". Then with the companys that sounded like they were already at near manufacturing capacity equals a bad mix when people are willing to pay the higher then normal prices.

 

[rajbcpa]

Why is Homeland Security ordering 30 years worth of ammo? This smells like a political effort to stick it to American gun owners.

Last week I saw something about proposed federal legislation from republicans to limit annual government purchases of ammo to the average that each government agency used over the last few years.

This situation has all the hallmarks of a government scheme - probably cooked up by the White House. Didn't Eric Holder intentionally sell assault weapons to criminals so that a good case could be made to outlaw them?

 

[NormB]

I just spent over an hour online looking for some cast lead bullets for a Colt SAA (.32-20 115gr RNFP)... I've found a couple of sources from some smaller outlets, will call in the AM for stock inquiries. I've never seen it this bad. Couple of days ago I got a couple of bottles of Varget in that I'd ordered four months ago.

Primers? Fugeddaboudit.

 

[KansasSasquatch]

The department of homeland security has orders for 1.6 billion rounds of hollow point ammo (which can only be used domestically per the Geneva convention). That's enough ammo to wage an active war in their jurisdiction for 30 years.

Fatherland, motherland, now homeland.

The reality is that there are 230 million guns owned by citizens, say each gun has 100 rounds with it, that's 23 billion rounds owned by The People. A sudden real or perceived demand for ammo will immediately overwhelm supply.

Edfardos

It's not the Geneva Convention that prohibits the use of expanding bullets it's the Hague Convention. http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/dec99-03.asp

The DHS didn't actually buy 1.6bil rounds, it's just a contract that allows them to buy UP TO 1.6bil at a set price. There's about 180,000 DHS employees and about 200,000 contract employees that do work for the DHS. Those numbers don't include the FBI, ATF, CIA, or DEA who are probably also dipping into that 1.6bil allotment. Then there's also local LEOs that get training from the DHS. If you only account for the 380,000 full time employees and contract workers, it's about 4000 rounds per person per year. I plan to go through more than that by myself this year just target shooting.

 

[KansasSasquatch]

Why is Homeland Security ordering 30 years worth of ammo? This smells like a political effort to stick it to American gun owners.

Last week I saw something about proposed federal legislation from republicans to limit annual government purchases of ammo to the average that each government agency used over the last few years.

This situation has all the hallmarks of a government scheme - probably cooked up by the White House. Didn't Eric Holder intentionally sell assault weapons to criminals so that a good case could be made to outlaw them?

30 years worth?? Really? That's less than 300 rounds per year if you only include the DHS's 180,000 full time employees. I can easily go through that in one 4 hour trip to the local range.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

Not all of those 180,000 employees carry a gun.

 

[KansasSasquatch]

Not all of those 180,000 employees carry a gun.

You're right but the Border Patrol, ICE, and Coast Guard all fall under DHS. I sure as hell hope they each get more than 300 rounds per year to practice with and carry.

 

[Silverado6x6]

Perhaps there is a highly motivated group of individual all across America who have the beliefs that a modern day Revolution must occur and they are preparing for it?

They are buying not for themselves but for a nation of volunteers?

Everyone in the room is swearing they smell crap but cannot see the elephant taking a dump.

 

[ATLDave]

Where's it going? Mostly into the hands of people re-selling at big markups and/or people hoarding/stocking because they're worried current conditions will never end. Go check out gun auction sites, there's stuff moving though the pipeline.

 

[Beentown]

3 million NICS checks a month...

 

[Sam1911]

Folks, do better research into the "DHS Ammo Buy" boondoggle. First look up and understand the term, "IDIQ Contract."

A pal of mine who is an FFL and SOT3 told me last month that the biggest problem is a huge backlog getting product to retailers and that problem stems from the 100 lbs. Hazmat rule.

Basically, 100 lbs. of Hazmat material isn't much, and when that's all the weekly or monthly truck is allowed to carry, it's REALLY hard to fill the demand.

Here's a thread on another forum where someone explains it well: http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_6_42/3...e_shortage_of_powder_and_primers_.html&page=2

No UPS driver is haz-mat certified. None of them, unless they just choose to do so on their own. UPS does not want them certified. As long as you keep less than 100 lbs of powder on each truck, Haz-mat certification is not required for the driver. Therefore, they limit shippers to 100 lbs of powder per truck so they do not have to deal with haz-mat certification. Once you hit 100 lbs, the entire truck is reclassified as a 1.3C explosives shipment. This means you need to carry additional insurance on the vehicles (expensive), the drivers must have a haz-mat certification on their CDL (limits the number of potential drivers you have to choose from), you need to run placards, and the route must be pre-planned and written out before you leave (with a complete inventory of the items you are hauling).

That's a pretty big deal when you consider that a dealer in this rush could easily sell all that Hazmat stuff out in about 5 minutes and then be left waiting for the next truck! Ponder that happening in thousands of gun shops all over the country.

 

[Walkalong]

I just learned something, and wow, that really cripples the ability to get quantity delivered in a timely manner.

That's a pretty big deal when you consider that a dealer in this rush could easily sell all that Hazmat stuff out in about 5 minutes and then be left waiting for the next truck! Ponder that happening in thousands of gun shops all over the country.

Exactly.

It would be like a brick supplier only being able to carry one brick at a time to the customer.

 

[Sam1911]

Yeah. It's not an issue I understand completely, but if I've got it at all, a powder or primer supplier could go to the trouble and expense of setting up a full truck shipment to any dealer but that dealer would really have to be able to buy enough stock to make it worthwhile. Even at the current rush, most probably won't buy tens of thousands of lbs!

So instead you get suppliers putting like two boxes of goodies on the truck each day and then doing the same thing again tomorrow. Like moving 5 gallons of water from one bucket to another with an eye dropper.

Now my pal told me this used to be an unenforced rule that was always flouted. And now it is being strictly followed. That I can't confirm.

 

[Bud0505]

I just spent over an hour online looking for some cast lead bullets for a Colt SAA (.32-20 115gr RNFP)... I've found a couple of sources from some smaller outlets, will call in the AM for stock inquiries. I've never seen it this bad. Couple of days ago I got a couple of bottles of Varget in that I'd ordered four months ago.

Primers? Fugeddaboudit.

I ordered a 1000 250 gr RNFP from Badman Bullets Sunday and received them in the mail this morning. $119 per thousand includes shipping. They look as good as anything I have purchased in the past from Magnus, Zero, or Quality Cast. Check them out: http://www.badmanbullets.com/OnlineS...d-bullets.html
__________________

 

[KansasSasquatch]

Folks, do better research into the "DHS Ammo Buy" boondoggle. First look up and understand the term, "IDIQ Contract."

A pal of mine who is an FFL and SOT3 told me last month that the biggest problem is a huge backlog getting product to retailers and that problem stems from the 100 lbs. Hazmat rule.

Basically, 100 lbs. of Hazmat material isn't much, and when that's all the weekly or monthly truck is allowed to carry, it's REALLY hard to fill the demand.

Here's a thread on another forum where someone explains it well: http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_6_42/3...e_shortage_of_powder_and_primers_.html&page=2



That's a pretty big deal when you consider that a dealer in this rush could easily sell all that Hazmat stuff out in about 5 minutes and then be left waiting for the next truck! Ponder that happening in thousands of gun shops all over the country.

Most of the package car drivers aren't certified but the semi drivers usually are. I'm sure a company like PV could order enough at a time to make at least a 28ft trailer worth the trouble of filling up. But they aren't likely to send a trailer load of filled orders out at a time. So then they would have to follow the 100lb rule for shipping out orders.

 

[oneounceload]

Besides 24/7 ammo production, you my have missed the 42 bazillion "I just got into reloading" threads over the last 6 months.............

 

[Kachok]

Some of us stocked up right after Newtown, the wrighting was on the wall, that drained existing supply and caused all this mess. Yes I know that makes me part of the problem but I only bought enough to keep me shooting until this dies down. I suspect we will see a few more companies getting into the bullet business if the supply/demand curve is not balanced out soon.

 

[Sam1911]

Most of the package car drivers aren't certified but the semi drivers usually are. I'm sure a company like PV could order enough at a time to make at least a 28ft trailer worth the trouble of filling up. But they aren't likely to send a trailer load of filled orders out at a time. So then they would have to follow the 100lb rule for shipping out orders.

Sure, a big distributor like PV can make that kind of an order and get a shipment, but what do they do with it then? Send it out to gun shops in (tiny) 100 lb. lots. And of course, to individual buyers willing to pay the Hazmat fees, which is why there are some deals out there on the 'net, but not much product in the stores. Most folks don't ever buy primers or powder off the web, though.

 

[RustyFN]

Folks, do better research into the "DHS Ammo Buy" boondoggle. First look up and understand the term, "IDIQ Contract."

A pal of mine who is an FFL and SOT3 told me last month that the biggest problem is a huge backlog getting product to retailers and that problem stems from the 100 lbs. Hazmat rule.

Basically, 100 lbs. of Hazmat material isn't much, and when that's all the weekly or monthly truck is allowed to carry, it's REALLY hard to fill the demand.

That's very interesting. I was told by what I think is a reliable source that hazmat is only with FedEx and UPS. He said he went in with a few people and placed a primer order ( if my memory is working ) for 300,000 primers. He said he had it shipped LTL to a business and there was no hazmat fee with LTL. Curious now if that's true or not. It was just before the first Obama shortage.

 

[dirtykid]

Besides 24/7 ammo production, you my have missed the 42 bazillion "I just got into reloading" threads over the last 6 months.


This ^^^^^^^^^


I started buying my reloading last summer, got my press some dies
then did a little research before I decided what powder/pills to buy
That was about a week after Newtown,,,
I was still able to buy pounds of Varget , 4895 for $25 each

now I see it going on places like Gunbroker for up to $65/pound !!!
The buyers are NEW users to GB , who are a majority of the above crowd

You just have to branch-out a little, use what resources you have,
The place I work for has 5-6 travelling salesman that call on various customers weekly within a 200-mile range of the store, I have a few of them stop by some of the local gun stores that I know are not too far out of their way, and check for powder,and bullets when they drive past.
Just yesterday, One of them guys called me, said he was at Cabella's looking at 2-1# containers of Varget for $26 each,, I told him to snatch them up !!

I just give them a list of what to look for, and tip them for their time

It helps to know the LGS owners pretty good also, he will call me when he gets in something he thinks I may need, I make sure never to try and
"Buy him out" of what he's offering, just enough to keep me going....

----------------------

Perhaps there is a highly motivated group of individual all across America who have the beliefs that a modern day Revolution must occur and they are preparing for it?

They are buying not for themselves but for a nation of volunteers?

Everyone in the room is swearing they smell crap but cannot see the elephant taking a dump.



This also ^^^^^^^^^^

 

[ArtP]

Just a guess here...

The 100 pound rule likely applies from shipping hubs to the recipient, with average delivery drivers and normal trucks. It seems likely UPS/FedEx sends a special truck to PV to pickup hazmat stuff to get it into the "system". I'd even think PV has a contract with one shipper offering exclusivity in exchange for handling their special needs.

There's no way PV, or any other national seller could have ever been limited by shipping a total of 100 pounds per shipping day. I've gotten more than one 40 pound PV package, and that's just for me. Also consider, PV will ship heavy bullets with hazmat stuff. If restricted by 100 pounds, they'd not sell anything other than hazmat stuff, or at least separate it.

In essence, I think gun shops, or hazmat recipients might be limited to receiving 100 pounds a day, each.

I'm not calling anyone a liar here, just imparting my own brand of thinking.

I think it's simple hording, we're buying way more than we're shooting. We can't keep buying more than we're shooting, forever.

How many times do you think these words have been uttered? "I just scored 5,000 primers today (that I didn't need)!!"

 

[Sam1911]

There's no way PV, or any other national seller could have ever been limited by shipping a total of 100 pounds per shipping day.

Not per day, but what they can put on one truck. Someone like PV who exists to ship things, does not see one truck a day. But your local shop does, or probably a lot less.