Analysis: The 2024 Fight Over Guns Has Stagnated [Member Exclusive]
By Stephen Gutowski
The presidential campaign’s debate over gun policy and the emphasis (or lack thereof) on it is unlikely to change from this point through November.
Over the past month, we’ve seen a high-profile mass shooting and a second assassination attempt against Donald Trump. We’ve also seen Kamala Harris give an extended interview on gun policy. Yet, there hasn’t been any movement on guns from either candidate, and Americans haven’t moved the issue up their priority list.
The race has stagnated and, barring an extreme event, will probably stay right where it is on guns.
That’s driven by a
seeming lack of voter interest. All of the polls to ask about guns since the Apalachee High School shooting in Winder, Georgia, and the debate have born this out. Voters in the latest ABC News and Ipsos poll trusted Harris over Trump on guns, while those in the latest Fox News poll favored Trump. But both showed
Americans view guns as a mid-tier issue at best.
That remained true in multiple other post-debate polls. A Yahoo News and YouGov poll found just five percent viewed guns as their top issue, putting it sixth out of nine issues. Another poll from the Angus Reid Institute found that 19 percent said guns were an issue they cared most about, also making it sixth out of 11 issues.
Then there’s the candidates themselves. They’ve given no indication they plan to adjust their approach to guns.
Another would-be assassin threatened Trump. Thankfully, this one didn’t get as far as the last. But it still presented further motivation for him to change his mind on guns, and he hasn’t.
While there was reason to think Trump could moderate on gun control after being shot himself, and there’s still reason to believe the assassination attempts
could fuel a push down the line, he’s stuck with his previous approach. Now, that approach has mostly consisted of de-emphasizing gun-rights policy promises and emphasizing he’s doubtful of gun owners’ commitment to voting. But he has also repeatedly
attacked Harris on her previous support for a mandatory buyback of AR-15s and similar firearms.
For her part, Harris has also stuck to her positions. At least the ones she adopted after taking over the top of the Democratic ticket. She’s now advocating for universal background checks, “red flag” laws, and a ban on the sale of “assault weapons.”
To get there, she had to walk back her 2019 support for that mandatory buyback Trump has keyed in on. She’s also refused to talk about her previous support for the handgun ban the Supreme Court overturned in 2008’s Heller decision and her certification of handgun microstamping requirement while she was California Attorney General. She’s also yet to personally address
her newly-resurfaced 2007 comments warning lawful San Francisco gun owners she’d send law enforcement into their homes to check they are storing their guns safely, though a campaign spokesman told Fox News a federal court upheld the law she was discussing.
Perhaps the most telling part of her relatively lengthy discussion of gun policy with the National Association of Black Journalists was what she didn’t say. Despite being asked specifically about handguns and repeatedly pressed by NPR’s Tonya Mosley for specific policy details, she didn’t return to any of the further left positions on handguns she’d previously held. Instead, she stuck with calling for an assault weapons ban and universal background checks before making a diversion into mental health funding and community violence interruption programs.
Although, part of what she did say was telling. She began her answer on guns with the same tactic she has used every time she’s discussed the issue since the debate: emphasizing that she and her running mate are gun owners. She even used that line again during a fundraising event with Oprah, going so far as to say
anyone who breaks into her house is getting shot before pivoting back to those same three gun policies she’s been running on.
Just as Trump has settled into a strategy of shaming gun owners into voting while telling them Harris will take their guns, Harris has decided to tell everyone who’ll listen that she’s a gun owner who just wants universal background checks, red flag laws, and an assault weapons ban. Meanwhile, voters writ large seem more interested in growing the economy, bringing down inflation, and protecting democracy, among other things.
Their attention could turn back to guns as a top issue over the next couple of weeks. However, given the events we just went through didn’t move the needle, it would likely take a huge story to move the candidates and voters alike.
That doesn’t mean guns don’t matter in the election, though. They could even be decisive.
Polling indicates 2024 will probably be as close as the last two elections. Harris has gained a bit in post-debate polling, but averages have Trump within a few points nationally and even closer in the swing states. Gun policy may not be a top priority for the majority of voters, but the vast majority of voters still think it’s an important issue overall.
Additionally, despite Trump’s recent take, gun owners have a strong record of turning out to vote on gun issues–which is why gun control policies tend to significantly underperform polling
when put directly to voters in ballot initiatives.
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