Thoughts on where I see the industry going in 2025/6

It would thrill me if muzzle loading made a comeback. I've got more than a few that have been sitting in the safe waiting for a chance to compete again. My wife and I shot somewhere in IL or IN about every weekend from April through September plus spring and fall nationals. In the late 60s, through mid 70s. I'm not holding my breath, however. Too much work for millennials and Zers.
The oldest of Millennials of nearing retirement or if they did it right are, are retired.
 
The oldest of Millennials of nearing retirement or if they did it right are, are retired.

WHAT?! No, that can't be right. I'm an "elder (geriatric) millennial" and I'm only 41. I suppose my classmates who are closing in on finishing their 20 are or will be retired, but aren't we still a bit young to be classified as "nearing retirement"? However, as a former muzzleloader hunter and shooter, I do disagree with the idea that muzzleloading is too much work for my generation.

As for the suggestions in this thread, some of it reminds me of the folks who used to come in looking for very specific one-of-a-kind items, who then got offended to learn it wasn't offered, or would be very expensive.

...(trimmed for message length)...

Where I think things will be going:
1. Watch for a chassis-based SA pistol. A chassis system allows for easier precision machining to get a good trigger.
2. Whoever brings a pistol to the market designed around a red dot will have a red-hot seller. The only part of the dot above the top of the slide should be the screen. Very compact.
3. .380, .32, and .30SC will gain in popularity.
4. Expect interest in muzzle-loading arms to pick up significantly in 2025. Especially the traditional stuff - not the inlines.

I'd love to see a resurgence of interest in the precision pistol disciplines. If you take a look at the oldest competitors in any Olympic Games, they are invariably shooters.

1) Not happening. The people interested in such a thing are already buying 2011s and similar pistols and that market is well-served by existing manufacturers.
2) Anybody who wants to be married to a specific mounting pattern already has or simply will have an existing pistol machined for their optic of choice. And people already want bigger and bigger windows on their dot sights, not smaller.
3) The SIG P365 made the .380 ACP practically irrelevant in the current market 5 or 6 years ago. The .32s exist as niche guns. The .30 Super Carry was stillborn; as mentioned by another poster, it's actually too much power in its form factor. See also snub-nose revolvers in .327 Federal Magnum - they don't exactly sell like ice water in the desert either.
4) As already mentioned, doubtful. Traditional muzzleloading is a leisure hobby in times of plenty, like RV-ing. Otherwise, the current niche for muzzleloading rifles IS inlines for hunting in places where it extends the hunting season. Right or wrong, there's a perception that inlines are more accurate/powerful/reliable than a traditional side-hammer gun.

And as much as I'd love to see more interest in ANY precision shooting discipline, rifle or pistol, that's just not what interests the mass market. Which is a shame, as I always felt a day spent at a Highpower match had a better time to round count ratio than any run-and-gun pistol match I ever attended.
 
WHAT?! No, that can't be right. I'm an "elder (geriatric) millennial" and I'm only 41. I suppose my classmates who are closing in on finishing their 20 are or will be retired, but aren't we still a bit young to be classified as "nearing retirement"? However, as a former muzzleloader hunter and shooter, I do disagree with the idea that muzzleloading is too much work for my generation.

Millennials are argued to have started between 1980 to 1985.

Meaning, a Millennial born in 1981, who enlisted at 18, is already eligible to be retired from the military service.

And millennials don't find muzzle loading hard.

I don't.
 
1. Not sure about SA but chassis based pistols in general allow easy personal customization which was one of the reasons for AR popularity.

2. Pistol optics are in their infancy, improved batteries, charging systems, and mounting systems are coming, plus they are great for older eyes.

3. Due to evolving bullet technologies the smaller calibers still have a future especially with new shooters. I see more .380 pistols showing up in CCW classes now then 5 years ago and the majority of students are female who prefer smaller calibers and guns.

4. If traditional muzzleloaders make a comeback it'll be because the stars align with a combination of the patriotic wave across the country, celebration of the 250 anniversary of independence and possibly a push from someone like Thompson Center to reintroduce a nice sidehammer. This happened in 1976 but it's a different world today.
 
1. Not sure about SA but chassis based pistols in general allow easy personal customization which was one of the reasons for AR popularity.

2. Pistol optics are in their infancy, improved batteries, charging systems, and mounting systems are coming, plus they are great for older eyes.

3. Due to evolving bullet technologies the smaller calibers still have a future especially with new shooters. I see more .380 pistols showing up in CCW classes now then 5 years ago and the majority of students are female who prefer smaller calibers and guns.

4. If traditional muzzleloaders make a comeback it'll be because the stars align with a combination of the patriotic wave across the country, celebration of the 250 anniversary of independence and possibly a push from someone like Thompson Center to reintroduce a nice sidehammer. This happened in 1976 but it's a different world today.
T/C heavily pushed muzzle loading hunting seasons in the 1970s specifically to create market demand for their products.
 
The current situation:
1. The AR/AK market is saturated. Everybody has bought several.
2. The Glock/clone of Glock/generic polymer-framed striker-fired pistol market is also saturated. Everybody has a bunch, almost every manufacturer is making something.
3. Red dot optics are taking off...but the mounting systems are often kluged together with adapter plates.
4. Micro-compact pistols are gaining in popularity. .380 and even .32 are starting to get respect - people are realizing that great-granddad wasn't so stupid as we thought.
5. The 250th of U.S. independence is coming up in 18 months. With the change in Administrations, this is likely to be fairly big. Not as big as the Bicentennial (which was huge), but significant.

Where I think things will be going:
1. Watch for a chassis-based SA pistol. A chassis system allows for easier precision machining to get a good trigger.
2. Whoever brings a pistol to the market designed around a red dot will have a red-hot seller. The only part of the dot above the top of the slide should be the screen. Very compact.
3. .380, .32, and .30SC will gain in popularity.
4. Expect interest in muzzle-loading arms to pick up significantly in 2025. Especially the traditional stuff - not the inlines.

I'd love to see a resurgence of interest in the precision pistol disciplines. If you take a look at the oldest competitors in any Olympic Games, they are invariably shooters.
1. Yet they still sell.
2. Irregardless, the glock 19 is one of the most popular and purchased pistol in America. Companies make Glock clones for a reason, they make money.
3. They've been popular for 5-6 years. People just called them fads or Tacticool.
4. P365 imo killed the small 380.


1. Chassis based is overrated IMO. Berreta APX, Springfield Echelon, Dan Wesson DWX are chassis pistols, you don't see aftermarket companies jumping on the bandwagon. Ruger built a chassis gun with the American, it went over like a fart in a elevator.

2. It will be who ever designs a dot or the technology to shrink the electronics.

3. Doubtful. Nobody jumped on the 30sc wagon besides Smith and Nighthawk. Not stellar sellers.

4. You and about 10 other people.
 
The oldest of Millennials of nearing retirement or if they did it right are, are retired.
LOL.
Born in 1979, am 45, I make over 3 times the median household income of my state am not ready for retirement.
Millennials are argued to have started between 1980 to 1985.

Meaning, a Millennial born in 1981, who enlisted at 18, is already eligible to be retired from the military service.

And millennials don't find muzzle loading hard.

I don't.
Really, then you back it up saying those millennials just enlisted. Cmon.
My graduating class of 1998 was 66, of those 66 only 4 enlisted. Each served 2-4 tours in the sandbox and got out. Not really good numbers.
Millennials retiring, even Stretch Armstrong can't reach that one.

Millennials don't get into Muzzle-loading cause it's hard but because, it's boring and they have no interest or connection with it.

I build custom cars and hot rods, the number of people that want a traditional 1930s type of hot rod is dying out. The number of people that want a 68 Mustang are dying out. People my age have little to no connection to the model A just like they have little to no connection with Muzzle-loading.
 
22LR, 9x19, and 223/5.56 will continue to rule the popularity contest. 308W has lost a lot of ground to 6.5CM, and I don't see that changing. 6mm/243 chamberings do not have a clear winner at this point, maybe 6GT will take the lead.

The high capacity, sub compact handgun market will continue to flourish.

Red dot technology, especially in size, features, and mounting systems will continue to evolve. I foresee some big advances in the next year with the popularity increasing.

There will also be some advances in the bolt action world as precision rifles continue to be more popular. Modularity will become more mainstream.
 
Millennials don't get into Muzzle-loading cause it's hard but because, it's boring and they have no interest or connection with it.

I build custom cars and hot rods, the number of people that want a traditional 1930s type of hot rod is dying out. The number of people that want a 68 Mustang are dying out. People my age have little to no connection to the model A just like they have little to no connection with Muzzle-loading.
This. When people reach their prime earning years and the empty-nest stage (which is where Gen-X mostly is now, and average millennials will be soon), they often tend to gravitate toward those things that they thought were really cool when they were teenagers but could never afford them back then or even later while raising their children. Boomers liked old hot rods, early muscle cars, and Harleys, but Gen-X gravitates later. And I expect millennials might be in garages restoring hot Civics and Supras these days.

My generation (Gen-X) was the first generation that grew up with AR’s and Title 1 civilian AKs going mainstream in the mid to late 1980s. I still want a classic stamped-receiver AKM clone (had the perfect one years ago, a Romanian SAR-1 with a Kobra optic, and sadly had to let it go during a financial crunch to come up with a down payment on an apartment). I do have a Rock River AR that I bought in the early 00’s.

I saw a full-size civilian Uzi lookalike in a gun store in my early 20s and have kind of wanted one ever since, even though they are the most impractical 9mm I can think of unless you go the SBR route. I likewise have absolutely no use case for a civilian MP5 lookalike but I think they’re cool too.

I came of age when revolvers for daily carry were fading, and the only revolvers I thought were cool were the Performance Center 686 .357’s with optics and that cool barrel shroud, and I think hunting revolvers are cool from lots of articles about them in G&A in my formative years. I grew up in the ascendancy of double-stack 9mms.

I was heavily influenced, politically and in terms of purchasing priorities, by the stupid 1994 faux-ban rammed through Congress that September on a raft of sneering falsehoods, and I was among the tens of millions who then had the privilege of tossing those rascals out in subsequent elections, which helped usher in carry licensure reform in ensuing years. I got my first CHL in 1995ish and have been carrying ever since.

I see the interests of my generation continuing to be a blend of traditional and practical/tactical. I’m interested in bolt-actions, but the bolt-action I would most like to have is an Accuracy International AIWS, because I thought that was the coolest bolt-action I had ever seen in my formative years. I think that bolt-action precision rifles, and “precision-lite” rifles for hunting, will continue to displace both the wooden-stocked rifles and the older thutty-thutty’s (though lever actions seem to otherwise be making a resurgence as fun all-purpose carbines with red dots or LVPOs).

I wouldn’t mind taking up hunting but hunter safety classes are as hard or harder than CHL classes to work into a busy schedule; I had a hunting license in Florida back in the day, back when you could just get a license and ease into it, but didn’t go hunting then and it’s a LOT harder to get started as a working adult now. And if I do hunt, it might be with a bolt gun, but it won’t be a wooden stock, and I’ll probably be shooting a Horus-style reticle instead of a duplex because I like them.

(As to cars…you nailed it. I’d chase a 1970 Chevelle SS396 because I wanted so bad to trade my Firebird on one in my late teens, but couldn’t afford it. But the hot car I’d really like to have would be an early 2000’s Bullitt edition Mustang with a 6-speed manual…I grew up admiring the original on film, but I’d rather have the newer version.)
 
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LOL.
Born in 1979, am 45, I make over 3 times the median household income of my state am not ready for retirement.

Really, then you back it up saying those millennials just enlisted. Cmon.
My graduating class of 1998 was 66, of those 66 only 4 enlisted. Each served 2-4 tours in the sandbox and got out. Not really good numbers.
Millennials retiring, even Stretch Armstrong can't reach that one.

Millennials don't get into Muzzle-loading cause it's hard but because, it's boring and they have no interest or connection with it.

I build custom cars and hot rods, the number of people that want a traditional 1930s type of hot rod is dying out. The number of people that want a 68 Mustang are dying out. People my age have little to no connection to the model A just like they have little to no connection with Muzzle-loading.
Again, Millennials are staring to reach retirement age and others are retired.

Are ALL millennials retired? No. Just like not all Baby Boomers are retired.

But the smart ones, they've retired.

Have some friends who have done their twenty in government service, secured their pensions and benefits, invested wisely, they retired, and they're in their 40s like me.

Wife and I own our home outright. No mortgage. Same with our cars.

Financial independence is fantastic and makes retirement much easier.

As for muzzle loading, again, it isn't hard. I do it.
 
This. When people reach their prime earning years and the empty-nest stage (which is where Gen-X mostly is now, and average millennials will be soon), they often tend to gravitate toward those things that they thought were really cool when they were teenagers but could never afford them back then or even later while raising their children.
Yep.
People buy what they were/are exposed to. Doesn't matter if it's guns or cars.
Kids my age didn't grow up watching John Wayne, we typically don't buy six shooters and lever guns. We grew up with the A team, playing video games with AK and ARs.

I'll take my 70 Chevelle with a Buick 455 over a modern Mustang anyday, but I understand the point.
As for muzzle loading, again, it isn't hard. I do it.
But again, people are not buying muzzle loaders because it's hard, but because
1. People find them boring
2. The reasons to own is growing short
3. The buying public of my age have little to no interest in muzzle loaders because there is little to no emotional connection to them.
 
Yep.
People buy what they were/are exposed to. Doesn't matter if it's guns or cars.
Kids my age didn't grow up watching John Wayne, we typically don't buy six shooters and lever guns. We grew up with the A team, playing video games with AK and ARs.

I'll take my 70 Chevelle with a Buick 455 over a modern Mustang anyday, but I understand the point.

But again, people are not buying muzzle loaders because it's hard, but because
1. People find them boring
2. The reasons to own is growing short
3. The buying public of my age have little to no interest in muzzle loaders because there is little to no emotional connection to them.
Strange, I'm in the age group you say aren't interested in black powder. Yet I see people in my age group buying muzzle loaders, especially cap 'n ball revolvers. They're bored with ARs and GLOCKs. Muzzle loaders are a cheap alternative to the tacticool market and my age group is enjoying them.

Much like lever actions and revolvers.
 
My predictions for firearms in 2025:
It will be driven primarily by the following (note my ability to predict trends is notoriously bad).

Legal issues:
  1. If congress passes (or the SCOTUS requires) national reciprocity, concealed carry weapons sales will boom.
  2. If congress passes (or the SCOTUS requires) silencers taken off as NFA items. Design and production of firearms with integrated noise reduction will boom.

Several market innovations:
  1. Very small semi-autos and small SA/DA revolvers in 22mag and 32 caliber options (327, 32mag, 32S&W, 32acp)
  2. Low recoil AR pistol options
  3. Very low profile red dot sights without windows
 
Again, Millennials are staring to reach retirement age and others are retired.

Are ALL millennials retired? No. Just like not all Baby Boomers are retired.

But the smart ones, they've retired.

Have some friends who have done their twenty in government service, secured their pensions and benefits, invested wisely, they retired, and they're in their 40s like me.

Wife and I own our home outright. No mortgage. Same with our cars.

Financial independence is fantastic and makes retirement much easier.

As for muzzle loading, again, it isn't hard. I do it.
Millennials is 1981-1996. The oldest of us would be like 43, youngest is 28. Prior is Gen X.


I strongly will disagree that .308 is dead. Tons of surplus still exists and will continue to exist for a very long time. Yeah 6.5 Creedmoor is coming to it's own, but it doesn't have much of a military adoption that .308 has and no one knows for sure if 6.8x51 Sig Fury is even going to see wide range use, because of the logistics currently in place and how many billions of rounds would have to be produced in the global stockpile.

Palmetto State Armory is just releasing the .308 Jakl now or will be in the next couple months. It was supposed to be released this past September, but they delayed it because they changed from a pinned and welded 13.7" barrel to a 14.5" pinned and welded due to customer feedback. They are also going to have two suppressors that are rated for it, because they actually want people to suppress them. Which is great because, with their other firearms they sell, if it has a 3rd party muzzle device, they can null the warranty. Also kind of why I'm glad they have release their own threaded on compensator for some of the Daggers.


Also, did see that they had released and quickly deleted a video on YouTube yesterday (December 23, 2024) about a compact version of the Rock. So 2025 is going to look up, depending on where you want to look.
 
It would thrill me if muzzle loading made a comeback. I've got more than a few that have been sitting in the safe waiting for a chance to compete again. My wife and I shot somewhere in IL or IN about every weekend from April through September plus spring and fall nationals. In the late 60s, through mid 70s. I'm not holding my breath, however. Too much work for millennials and Zers.
I would also like to see black powder only deer season again. Here in MI, probably due to deer population, shotgun and rifle are allowed for what used to be called black powder deer season.
 
2. Pistol optics are in their infancy,
I had an Aimpoint red dot on a 1911 in the very early 90s. Pretty sure Aimpoint has been making red dots since the 70s.
Old guys becoming aware of red dot technology is in its infancy :evil:

My thoughts on the 2025 gun industry is that nothing much will change from the way it is right now. We aren't in a booming economy.
 
Aimpoint and Glock supposedly have something special coming out soon. The usual folks in the know are hinting but not leaking.

Easy to install and zero RDS - would be a nice step. For the average person - you don't want to fool around. Click it on and turn it on - should be enough. Preinstalled would be the thing.

https://aimpoint.us/ Check out the countdown
 
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Look for Armscor, and Taurus, and Tisas to offer N-Frame revolvers at half the price of Smith and Wesson.
Taurus has been producing a SS N-frame sized Model 44 revolver in several barrel lengths for years. It sells for a bit over $500 which is about half the price of the S&W 629.
 
1. Suppressors will continue to rise in popularity and ubiquity. Flow through designs and 3D printed especially.

2. Glock will release something that is outside of their norm of incremental changes. New leadership will be more likely to innovate given the market dynamics.

3. Ruger and S&W will continue to be looking over the shoulders of Kel-Tec to cheat off their notes.

4. Optics companies will push more useable reticles for distance elevation and wind holds.

5. Shorter, threaded barrels will continue their rise for centerfire rifles.

6. Lever actions for commonly used cartridges will get developed due to being cheaper to feed. Such as 9mm, 5.56, 300BLK.

7. Takedown, niche rifles will continue to rise in popularity and focus.

8. AR-centric controls will continue to dominate with improvements already seen and implemented on ambi controls.

9. NRA will continue to bleed until the puss infested abscess is eliminated.

10. Forced reset will come into its own as its legality is bolstered that it meets the requirements of one round for each action of the trigger.
 
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I see polymer handguns continuing to edge out all metal handguns. They are cheaper to make and sell. Glock started it and all the major companies got in line. Glock hasn't really made anything new in years, and the other companies have moved forward.
 
I've been ruminating on where the industry/market is likely to go in the next few years, thought I'd put it out for comment/entertainment.

The current situation:
1. The AR/AK market is saturated. Everybody has bought several.
2. The Glock/clone of Glock/generic polymer-framed striker-fired pistol market is also saturated. Everybody has a bunch, almost every manufacturer is making something.
3. Red dot optics are taking off...but the mounting systems are often kluged together with adapter plates.
4. Micro-compact pistols are gaining in popularity. .380 and even .32 are starting to get respect - people are realizing that great-granddad wasn't so stupid as we thought.

1: doesn't matter. Always newcomers to market, and people keep adding more variants and configurations to collections. We picked up 2 more ARs this year in .50 Beowulf and .300 win mag. I already had 18.

2: See above, especially when the price point on many is below the level of inconsequential impulse purchase.

3: that's not a new thing, and tons of pistols now have factory optics cuts.

4: also been going on for 15+ years

5. The 250th of U.S. independence is coming up in 18 months. With the change in Administrations, this is likely to be fairly big. Not as big as the Bicentennial (which was huge), but significant.

I don't know that this will have any bearing on the firearms market. There will be a few commemoratives, of course, but those won't move the needle.

Where I think things will be going:
1. Watch for a chassis-based SA pistol. A chassis system allows for easier precision machining to get a good trigger.
2. Whoever brings a pistol to the market designed around a red dot will have a red-hot seller. The only part of the dot above the top of the slide should be the screen. Very compact.
3. .380, .32, and .30SC will gain in popularity.
4. Expect interest in muzzle-loading arms to pick up significantly in 2025. Especially the traditional stuff - not the inlines.

1: Not 100% following what you mean there, but we're not going to see a surge along the lines of bolt action chassis pistols. They exist and are a very niche market. Semi-autos and revolvers just don't lend to that, modular grip frames are as close as you get.

2: again, tons out there, have been for a minute. Micro RDS are about as low profile as they're gonna get, though, so unless you make a funky pistol with a really thick slide, taller sights to cowitness are necessary.

3: .380 has been fairly popular, not likely to move up or down. .32 ACP remains less so and I also expect that to continue. .30 Supercarry has been on life support from day 1. I personally like it, but for most, the extra couple rounds isn't worth being limited to the M&P shield & EZ or an expensive 1911, so unless other manufacturers suddenly pick it up, it's going the way of the .45 GAP.

4: I truly have no idea why you think there will be a change here. SilencerCo gambled on that with their unregulated suppressed Maxim 50, and even that innovative thing was a total commercial flop. People who like playing with front suffers in the 21st century are a minuscule market segment, don't see that changing, especially with the percentage of the population which hunts having been on the decline for over a half century.



My prediction is that we'll continue to see more and more factory threaded barrels, and PCCs have been a growing market that runs parallel to increased suppressor popularity, since subsonic pistol rounds suppress more effectively. Add to that braces being GTG again, I think we'll continue to see more of these employing delay mechanisms to make for quieter hosts.

Precision rifles will remain popular. ARs will be adapted to more and more cartridges, generating new sales. I honestly think higher quality metal framed handguns other than 1911s are going to become a larger segment of the full size pistol market.
 
1: Not 100% following what you mean there, but we're not going to see a surge along the lines of bolt action chassis pistols. They exist and are a very niche market. Semi-autos and revolvers just don't lend to that, modular grip frames are as close as you get.
I think he meant a single action, hammer fired pistol platform with a "chassis system" like the P320, APX, RXM, etc
 
Good assessment. I agree that suppressors will be gaining in popularity into the future. The black gun market has been beat to death and it seems like there is an interest in other than black guns as of late. I hope that trend continues. I have always appreciated things of antiquity myself over many modern offerings.
 
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