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To help answer all the questions about when the panic will end...

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by gspn, Jan 19, 2013.

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  1. gspn

    gspn Member

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    8 Ball says "my sources say no."
     
  2. OptimusPrime

    OptimusPrime Member

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    You need to roll your own "ultra-light reloads."
     
  3. BullfrogKen

    BullfrogKen Moderator Emeritus

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    4 years ago the manufacturers added people and offered overtime, but few did little beyond decisions that could be reversed.


    T2K - if the demand for your product is driven by fleeting passions, or could be reduced by a law, it is not wise to make capital investments and get stuck with that dormant extra capacity.
     
  4. RFMan

    RFMan Member

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    Beyond a certain point, increasing production for the items currently in short supply requires an investment in tooling (capital equipment), which must be depreciated over time, and which must show a positive ROI (profit) above a certain level over a certain time frame. This is required for, a) the business owner to want to do it in the first place, and b) the acquisition of credit (if needed), which depends on a sound business plan. Since the uncertainty level is HIGH as to how long the demand will last and how much there will be, and since many of these publicly traded companies are slaves to the whim of Wall Street and investors (a pox that adversely affects MANY industries in the US today) which is best described as rampant short-term-ism, businesses are reluctant to make those investments lest the demand (and prices) drop before the needed payback. Then the equipment can't pay for itself, the bank and/or others lower the credit rating, and the stock market punishes the company stock for not being clairvoyant.

    So, if more days and/or more shifts can be added, it makes sense to do that because the investment and ramp time are relatively low (some training, etc). Once the current plant's capacity is reached, increasing actual capacity is costly and difficult. And aggravating to those of us who want it to happen :)

    P.S. - I'm an engineer, not a business person, but plants make the things I design, so I have to grasp some of this out of pure self-defense...
     
  5. aeriedad

    aeriedad Member

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    Just tell her it's not yours. :evil:

    OP,
    Am I going bankrupt if all my ammo & magazine backorders ship the same month?
     
  6. sidheshooter

    sidheshooter Member

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    Let us not be those people who forget history. For example, when there was no .380 ammo to be found anywhere (outside of basements in North Idaho and Texas, of course) sage industry insiders observed that plants tool up for "runs" seasonally. Indeed, a calendar year later, all the owners of LCPs, Sig P238s, Kahr P380s and Beretta 34s (added that last one for myself) were able to hit ammotogo.com and buy all sorts of .380 ammo.

    Give it a year and, assuming legality, all your ammo will become available again, for at least a little while until it gets bought up all over again.

    So far as ARs and 30round P-Mags, it's time to consult the 8 ball...
     
  7. westy39

    westy39 Member

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    O great magic 8 ball please tell me if I will ever find true happiness with an evil black gun???
     
  8. buckeye8

    buckeye8 Member

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    Magic 8 Ball, where are all the entrepreneurs?

    This is the perfect time for a new ammo, holster, magazine or accessory company to sneak their way into the national market.

    Sure, there is the risk of a ban, but there is also unprecedented opportunity with regards to unfulfilled demand.
     
  9. gspn

    gspn Member

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    The Magic 8 Ball came back quickly with "It is certain."
     
  10. joeschmoe

    joeschmoe Member

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    Magic 8 ball... will Americans (especially NY's) ever realize their future Liberty is tied to voting for new candidates and new parties rather than voting for the same old ones and then crying/panic buying at the LGS?
     
  11. gspn

    gspn Member

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    Remember...I'm just the messenger here...the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't count on it."
     
  12. KTXdm9

    KTXdm9 Member

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    Ah, yes, how stupid of me. Magic 8 ball, will I buy an AK at pre-panic prices in the next six months?
     
  13. gspn

    gspn Member

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    Magic 8 Ball says "Very doubtful"
     
  14. joeschmoe

    joeschmoe Member

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    That's what I think too.
     
  15. justice06rr

    justice06rr Member

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    Nope, suppliers/manufacturers can't really keep up with demand to begin with.

    For example, Spikes Tactical is back-ordered for 6 to 12months according to my friend who works there.

    you also have to keep in mind all the newer gun owners that are trying to buy more ammo and mags that will keep the demand higher than what can be produced.
     
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