When will the next leg down for prices be

[mp5a3]

It seems to me we have to reach a point on AR's AK's, handguns etc where everyone has had their fill, has what they need, and there's no need to buy anything new. A lot of the recent sales have been form fear, but I'm sure I'm like a lot of people here in that I've had what I needed for years. So the manufacturers are going to keep pumping out however many they make each day with the only new sales coming from either new shooters or collectors/people who shoot a lot.

Am I way off ? It seems like we'll hit a point where we have a huge supply of product with no (or very few) buyers. I mean not everyone has $800-$1200 to spend on a gun that costs $.25-$.45 everytime you hit the trigger. Will some makers go out of business ?

 

[Lone_Gunman]

I think you are way off. The next run on guns will occur just as soon as somebody in Obama's administration starts talking about a new AWB. Obama still plans to do that, you know.

 

[mp5a3]

Yea, that's kinda what I'm asking. What will the next catalyst be. It can't help that everyone thinks the world will end in 2012.

 

[P.B.Walsh]

I still need to buy a RRA, so lets not say that their are no buyers, I need at least 1 AR.

 

[winknplink]

IMO, the next catalyst will come if/when our government decides to start a drug war with Mexico.

 

[offthepaper]

I'm in no way trying to turn this thread into a anti-O.
But in relation to your question, I think the next major catalyst will be if it appears he will win a second term. A lame duck prez can REALLY push the envelope when it comes to presenting laws or executive orders.

 

[TexasRifleman]

Ammo stays this scarce the price of guns may go to nothing

I've always joked that someday we'd see guns given away for free and ammo at $200 a round.

It seemed funny at the time. Now it's not so funny......

 

[waterhouse]

So the manufacturers are going to keep pumping out however many they make each day with the only new sales coming from either new shooters or collectors/people who shoot a lot.

We were at this point last September. Manufacturers were making what the made, and the guns were selling, either to new shooters, new AR owners, or guys who figured 6 ARs wasn't enough and they needed a seventh (I'm not knocking these guys, I occasionally am one of them).

If a company was doing fine at the middle of last year, they will probably continue to be fine. If a company was struggling last year, the boost in sales may help them turn around or it may merely keep them afloat for a little bit longer.

I've always joked that someday we'd see guns given away for free and ammo at $200 a round.

It works for razors and printers, why not guns

 

[mp5a3]

Hey "offthepaper" last I checked his approval rating was 30% so I'm sure he's losing political capital, and if a second stimulus goes through, it's as good as gone.

 

[DMK]

I'm sure I'm like a lot of people here in that I've had what I needed for years.

I'm one of those people. Maybe I'm a minority. I haven't bought a new gun, mags or even any any ammo in over a year and a half. It just became too much of a hassle with everything on back order, prices going up, buying new stuff wasn't fun any more. I started to seriously look at what I had and realized that I didn't really "need" anything else. Maybe if it becomes a buyer market again I might get the itch for something new.

 

[offthepaper]

Hey "offthepaper" last I checked his approval rating was 30% so I'm sure he's losing political capital, and if a second stimulus goes through, it's as good as gone.

Haven't seen the 30% approval rating. I did see one a week ago showing it at 58% (and falling). I agree if they go to Stim #2 things could go south surer than a goose looking for a suntan in the winter. That or a cram down your throat health plan passage that nobody reads, or a lot of other things we can't even imagine yet.
But my original post was meant to state what might trigger D) the next buying frenzy. The thought of him getting a second term would (I think) would almost get the soccer Mom's willing to pay inflated prices for some form of protection if they percieve the possibilty of an all out push for a ban.
If that becomes the case, it could make the current frenzy look like the "good ole days".

 

[RP88]

if he wins a second term AND still has congress (something that may be iffy right now), then there will be an AWB legislation pop up, unless the courts move faster than 2012 and something magical happens that would either prevent or greatly discourage one. But even if one does pop up, I see it not passing, at least right now, assuming the politicians are...um...err...honest.

 

[lions]

So the manufacturers are going to keep pumping out however many they make each day with the only new sales coming from either new shooters or collectors/people who shoot a lot.

I would bet the manufacturers have a pretty close eye on the market and will slow production as necessary. Not too many will produce themselves out of a job.

 

[Uncle Mike]

Obama still plans to do that, you know.

Really..... says who...not Obama?

I would bet the manufacturers have a pretty close eye on the market and will slow production as necessary. Not too many will produce themselves out of a job.

Right you are... the manufacturers have done this for years now... that's why you see product advertised for months or years before it's available.

 

[mp5a3]

Awww shucks, I've been waiting for that $899 Colt 6920 or LMT Defender. Seriously though, I wouldn't mind getting a few things if prices drop. I have about 26000 rounds on 9mm that I bought years ago, so I might sell some of that to fund another gun purchase.

Still makes me wonder how much ammo is "enough" My class III dealer had 50,000 rounds of .45 and over 100,000 of .223/5.56. Never lost a dime.

 

[Lone_Gunman]

Really..... says who...not Obama?

Obama is on record multiple times stating he wanted a new AWB. Up until recently, the White House website listed this as a goal, and in February the Attorney General stated it was a goal of the Obama White House.

You might be right though. After a lifetime of being vehemently anti-gun, perhaps he has had a change of heart.

 

[DRYHUMOR]

I posted recently that the next run on guns would be from somthing unforseen. I still believe that.

However, if you follow the dollar on the business page, you will note that the dollar is in decline. Metals are lower right now, but that will change. The lowered value of the dollar and metals prices may very well push the cost of rifles up a good bit in the next year or 2.

 

[freakshow10mm]

Manufacturers have already made changes to the market. Hell, ARs are on sale and many of the big names report the receiver back orders are caught up or are only a few hundred out from being produced for current orders. I know a few dealers that got caught with a bunch of lowers and are now sitting on a few hundred without moving much at all.

 

[Ignition Override]

Lone Gunman and Fellow Shooters:

Good points and questions. It surprised me last winter that Attorney General Eric Holder was quickly muzzled by Senators, or others on the Cabinet after he used the words "AWB".

Although any gun topics are sort of new to me (very late-bloomer), this action to silence such words from the AG really "said something". This seemed a paradox with most people panicking over ammo and most people listening closely to, if not secretly believing any and all gun show rumours.

 

[oneounceload]

I doubt you'll see prices, especially on ammunition, drop any significant amount from current amounts. Right now, with ammo and components, it's about supply; they're not expanding production, they're playing close to the vest and running OT for the time being. The next 6 months will be interesting

 

[Kymasabe]

In my area, I'm seeing more and more AK's and AR's on the shelves, my local gunshop says the buying frenzy has slowed to a crawl and prices are dropping. 7.62x39 that was $200 per 500 rounds is now $150 per 500. Prices online are dropping as well and supply/availability is increasing.
For example: for the last few months, ClassicArms would sell out of 7.62 ammo in days, often overselling their stock and having to limit quantity on purchases. Now, they've had the same pile of ammo for sale for weeks. They either got a HUGE shipment or buying has slowed...or both.
Either way, it's a shift in the market.

 

[Ignition Override]

Kymasabe: "Roger that".

A quick survey for the last two weeks of comments at "Ammunition" on "SKSboards" has revealed the sudden widespread supply of .223 and 7.62x39, although backordered.

A look at "JGsales", "SGuide", "Ammoman" etc confirms it.

 

[Arkel23]

I think you are way off. The next run on guns will occur just as soon as somebody in Obama's administration starts talking about a new AWB. Obama still plans to do that, you know.

He was never planning to ban assault weapons that weren't already banned, by Bush, he was just putting a permanent ban on them.

 

[mp5a3]

Try this for 7.62x39 prices..

http://www.aimsurplus.com/acatalog/Wolf_7.62x39_122grn_FMJ_Poly_Performance.html

 

[lipadj46]

He was never planning to ban assault weapons that weren't already banned, by Bush, he was just putting a permanent ban on them.

There are no federal AW bans at the moment so I'm not exactly sure what you are saying. There are some in DC that would like to reinstate the Federal AWB with some changes to tie up loose ends and make it permanent. I think that a law like that would be a tough one to pass.