Will we see a sharp dropoff in the popularity of the AR platform now?

Discussion in 'Rifle Country' started by Phaedrus/69, May 19, 2022.

  1. Phaedrus/69

    Phaedrus/69 Member

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    Okay, this is kind of the flip side to the discussion of the adoption of the "Sig Spear" by the US Army. For the time being it seems this is a done-deal, perhaps not a total replacement but widespread adoption and broad issuing to troops. So for the sake of argument I'll assume no 11th hour change of heart or reprieve for the M4-family of carbines and rifles. If this comes to pass will be see a broad dropoff in the civilian sales and popularity of the AR platform?

    It's no secret that adoption by the US military leads to broad civilian popularity. People want what the military has, or at least as close as they can get. Broad use of the 1911 helped to make it a civilian hit and many people who'd never owned a Beretta picked up a 92f after the Army adopted it. Certainly once the patents expired and the AR family of rifles began to be cloned we saw it explode in popularity with the civilians, perhaps fueled by veterans returning from the sandbox. People want what the US Army has.

    Certainly there's a large "installed base" of AR shooters and a huge aftermarket. It happens to be an extraordinarily flexible and adaptable system, chambered in dozens of rounds in calibers from .22 up to .50 and from 5.56 to .300 Win Mag to .50 Beowulf. And like HDTV sets we're at commodity pricing on ARs.

    Still, I expect folks that have never owned a Sig before will be looking at the MCX line now. Right now you're stuck with Sig if you want "the real deal" and ammo is limited, but of course 40 years ago Colt was about the only game in town for an AR.

    There are some questions as to how widely issued the "Spear" will be but assuming it gains wide acceptance, will it and it's "new" round supplant the common AR in 5.56 among civilian gun enthusiasts?
     
  2. 3Crows

    3Crows Member

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    Will the continued use of the antiquated AR platform by such enthusiasts now have them included in Fudd-dom?

    3C
     
  3. someguy2800

    someguy2800 Member

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    Not anytime in the foreseeable future. Besides, the sig MCX is just a modification of the AR platform and is a continuation of the Stoner AR family of weopons, so any popularity it brings just adds to the AR’s popularity. It is a re engineered hodgepodge of AR designs such as the AR10, AR15, and AR18 put together into a new platform. Not saying that’s a bad thing by the way.
     
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  4. NIGHTLORD40K

    NIGHTLORD40K Member

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    Not unless .277 drops to $.40 a round and SIG starts offering stripped lowers for it.
     
  5. Roverguy

    Roverguy Member

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    Yes. The AR and .223 Rem are dead. Just like the 40 S&W. Within months, it will be hard to even find an AR rifle.
     
  6. N555

    N555 Member

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    Yeah. I think the sig fan boi crowd appear to have stopped buying ARs appear to be already selling their ARs to scrape together enough coin to buy an XM5.
    AR prices appear to already be going down, more inventory, more sales on new stuff.
    The ammo right now is like $4 a shot, that's like 338 lupua territory.
     
  7. Catshooter

    Catshooter Member

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    That round won't be a handloaders delight, either. And loud? Oh my.

    Naw, I think the AR platform will stick around for a bit.
     
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  8. nick22

    nick22 Member

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    The M1A is still a heck of a rifle that hasn't been the standard service rifle for longer than I've been alive. The AR platform isn't going anywhere. I wonder how many millions of them are out there?
     
  9. Ohen Cepel

    Ohen Cepel Member

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    Yea, the AR will go away just like 9mm did when the police all went to .40, as it was SO much better. Oh wait..............

    Seriously though, the AR is not going away anytime soon. The M4's will be in service for another decade I would figure, IF the SIG actually gets adopted at large scale.

    The ammo is $$, can't be reloaded by normal people, is NOT NATO spec (anyone watching all the NATO talk now?) so that may be an issue if we go and adopt something which no one else has no wants as we just forced some of them to go 5.56 in the last decade or so.

    Beretta made a final contract delivery of M9's last year to the DoD and that was after the drop-o-matic was adopted :)
     
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  10. jmr40

    jmr40 Member

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    The M14 and 7.62X51 have the 2nd shortest amount of time serving the military at only 6 years. The rifle, and cartridge were a failed experiment as a general issue rifle. The cartridge lived on as a sniper round and as a hunting/target round. All of the complaints as to why 7.62X51 was unsuitable are worse with the new 6.8X51 cartridge.

    When I look at my crystal ball I see the military buying a few thousand new rifles and issuing them to some of the elite special forces units. Then after some actual field use determining they aren't the best choice as a general issue rifle for the same reasons they decided 7.62X51 was unsuitable.

    I've seen this movie before. When 357 magnum came out people thought it would replace 38 Special in cops holsters. It did in some, but most stayed with 38+p because 357 mag was too much gun. Then when the FBI wanted the 10mm they quickly found it was too much gun for most agents and that led to the 40 S&W.

    I think the AR platform and 223/5.56 still have a place at least in the near future.
     
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  11. starnbar

    starnbar Member

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    The AR like the Winchester Repeater will be around when the majority of us are gone unless and it might happen the 2nd gets nullified. I say that due to the fact after raising 5 sons and listening to some of their friends talk most youngsters today do not shoot and could care less about their rights.
     
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  12. wesmonster

    wesmonster Member

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    Just my opinion, but when the military dropped the 1911, no one ran out and sold their 1911. Or Beretta 92.
    The AR has a VERY big aftermarket. That won’t disappear overnight.
    If anyone thinks their Thompson sub machine gun, M1 Garand or M-14 is obsolete, I’ll provide my address and offer to keep them on my farm...upstate...
     
  13. Charlie Martinez

    Charlie Martinez Member

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    I'm just thinking out loud here but what I have noticed is that soldiers that have experienced combat in recent years have more of a problem with the .223 caliber than they do with the AR rifle. I suspect that this new rifle and .277 caliber will eventually impact the popularity of .223 round more than the AR platform. The .223 will remain popular while cheap surplus ammo is available but once that supply dies out I believe we'll see a significant decline
     
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  14. Charlie98

    Charlie98 Member

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    That's my thoughts as well.

    Even if all of the 5.56mm production stops at somewhere like Lake City, the regular commercial makers will still be kicking it out... simply because the demand will still be there. The .223/5.56mm is still a very effective round against soda cans, paper targets, and dirt clods... which is what much of it is fired against. The newest Wunderround isn't any more effective there, and would be far more expensive, etc.

    As far as the AR... it's here to stay. There are a zillion reasons why the AR platform is popular, and those are the same reasons it will remain popular going forward. Those that have to have what the military happens to issue, will likely keep their AR's, too, and simply add to the fleet.
     
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  15. JShirley

    JShirley Administrator Staff Member

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    The AR15 will still be around in 200 years, if humans are.
     
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  16. NIGHTLORD40K

    NIGHTLORD40K Member

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    As a skull-adorned totem stick in the Shaman's hut if nothing else- along with other relics of the Before Time, like Sellfone, the glass box that talked and Meester Cough-hee who gave the people the Wide-Awake juice. :D
     
  17. Remington1911

    Remington1911 Member

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    I would say eventually. I remember buying my first AR in the 80's and they are just not popular. The real driving reason for my purchase is some idiot in washington wanted to "outlaw" them. I still have the 5 round mags as well. If you wanted to shoot 223 (also not real popular) you got yourself a Ruger Mini-14, those at the time inexpensive over the "army gun". It was a different time. I can't tell you when the AR thing took off but I have a feeling the internet had something to do with it. There are no mags for the AR but surplus and those dirt cheap....no plastic mags at all.

    I am sure people will chime in here on how fantastic the platform is, and how all this and that can be done, and you are right it can. It is the 1022 of the center fire world. But it did not become that till AFTER it became popular, till AFTER everyone had one like everyone has a belly button. What started the interest, was it that first ban, was it the first colt clone....I don't know. I would guess that if the same thing that drove the that first push happens then the second push with the new rifle will happen.

    I guess you can ask if the M9 drove 92fs sales, you would be a fool if you said no, and did the new hand gun drive those sales same deal. You really can't look at the 1911 as an example for the same reason you can't look at the M14, they are still "in use" and get even more street cred by the tactical tony crowd by who in the military owns it.
     
  18. cslinger

    cslinger Member

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    I’ll believe big army will actually go through with the full order when I see it. I honestly believe between ammo cost, barrel pressure/wear, optic cost, smaller ammo load and recoil that what will eventually play out Is these will end up as a more specialized weapon (DMR, SOCOM etc.) and or get converted to 7.62x51.

    I realize big green ordered like 250k of them but as they get fielded and used I believe the above will happen, leaving the majority of the military still rocking a. m16 variant (M4/MR556/etc. etc. )

    I personally think it’s a helluva cool weapon system though. Just not for general issue.

    While I don’t believe the M17/18 pistol was exactly the right direction at its heart it’s a 9mm pistol that will be rarely used. It shoots like a 9mm pistol, uses the same 9mm everybody uses and actually weighs less and carry’s more onboard ammo then it’s predecessor so that one will absolutely rearm everybody. This rifle I dunno.

    Just my WAG.
     
  19. anothernewb

    anothernewb Member

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    My money is on Hundreds of millions.
     
  20. FL-NC

    FL-NC Member

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    There sure are a lot of AR rifles (and pistols) in circulation for them to just go extinct and only continue to exist in fossil form. It's not like the M1 carbine- a weapon that was adopted to augment the Garand, and for the most part the only weapon that fires the 30 carbine (except for a few outliers like a Ruger blackhawk variant). Whatever gun comes next won't self-proliferate overnight as an invasive species and devour the AR's, any more than that FN SCAR did. The AR is almost the universal rifle/carbine in its class for law enforcement- seriously doubt if they are just going to swipe city/county credit cards to get the newest magazine cover girl rifle and the ammo that goes with it. Not to mention the worldwide demand for AR's and the 5.56 ammo that goes in them.
     
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  21. NIGHTLORD40K

    NIGHTLORD40K Member

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    Dont forget the Sigs most important specification- its cheaper.
     
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  22. Remington1911

    Remington1911 Member

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    I am with you, we don't cover the big issue and that is the logistics behind a major change like this. You need to get parts and other supplies out there....everywhere. Having two different "standards" is not going to work. Even having one for most of your guys and another for the special guys is a logistic pain. For every rifle, then a couple parts for every component, like two barrels, two trigger groups, two of everything at minimum, more if things are going nutty and things are going nutty.
     
  23. jmorris

    jmorris Member

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    Yes, just like the 1911, it will be all but completely forgotten…


    And that’s as thick as I can lay it on. :)
     
  24. JShirley

    JShirley Administrator Staff Member

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    While true, SOF have used different weapons since almost the beginning. I also believe these weapons- essentially .270 Magnums- will be almost entirely relegated to Special Operations Forces, except perhaps in Sniper/DMR and crew-served roles.

    John
     
  25. someguy2800

    someguy2800 Member

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    Yeah I'm sure it has a place within a squad, but as a general issue rifle I think they will find that what they wanted is not what they wanted. Always planning for the last war. I'm still hoping they go back to the drawing board again and find a medium ground between the two.
     
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