Will we see a sharp dropoff in the popularity of the AR platform now?

Discussion in 'Rifle Country' started by Phaedrus/69, May 19, 2022.

  1. DoubleMag

    DoubleMag Member

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    Let's presume the 556 M16 platform is really ''going away.'' This would be for USA armed forces only, not civilian use such as private citizens, police etc.


    I do not think I read the point I'm going to bring up. Not necessarily for other country military forces, security teams, police departments, other shooters. The costs would be too great. Ok sure, some countries would convert over, but there will always be ammo parts etc. for the guns, there's just too many out there on this big blue marble. IMHO
     
  2. N555

    N555 Member

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    It's already started.
    Used AR prices appear to be going down for parts and guns. Sig fan boys and army larpers are already off loading AR15 stuff and/or buying less of it.
    Hasn't hit the new market or retros/classics, yet.
     
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  3. .455_Hunter

    .455_Hunter Member

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    It's always funny to observe the people who like to play soldier, and buy all the gear, but the closest they will ever get to having a DD214 is the completed level printout from Call Of Duty.
     
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  4. illinoisburt

    illinoisburt Member

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    When they put a bit more details into the articles it's pretty evident the switch is not a done deal. Looks like initially it's a very small order with options to buy up to 250k over the next decade.


    https://www.defenseone.com/business/2022/04/soldiers-will-have-wait-until-next-year-new-rifle-ammo/365906/
     
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  5. Skeptic13

    Skeptic13 Member

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    The AR platform is not going away any time soon. 5.56 is a NATO cartridge that will stay in production for a long time. It is very unlikely that 6.8x51 will be adopted widely at this time by other NATO countries so there will continue to be a large supply of 5.56 ammo available at a reasonable price. The AR platform will continue to evolve and it will new chamberings will be developed. It is such a well thought out platform offered in so many calibers with so many options and it is fun and easy to shoot.
     
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  6. ilbob

    ilbob Member

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    The AR platform has a lot going for it in the civilian market. It is relatively inexpensive, reliable, and customizable. I don't see it going out of style anytime real soon.

    It can also handle just about any caliber which means that any new caliber the military might introduce can probably be used in some AR style rifle without a whole lot of redesign.
     
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  7. armoredman

    armoredman Member

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    The AR-15 has been available for civilian sale since 1963 - I doubt it's going away any time soon.
     
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  8. ACES&8S

    ACES&8S Member

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    Supply and demand will, or is catching up at a rate mfg have brought on themselves per so
    many different mfg which make everything from cheap, all the way to top end AR rifles and carbines with
    the low-income people can get a basic rifle, as is, and one pack of 250 rounds of bottom end ammo for home
    defense or WTSHTF. And, whoever stuck those cheap plastic open sights on the division that cuts the final
    product to the bare bones. Guys bring some here with sights that belong on a red rider BB gun, but the
    ammo is so bad it doesn't matter anyhow.
    Now how many rifles or pistol versions can keep on selling in this economy, where you couldn't trade
    a Garand for a sheet of plywood these days. [ joke] for now.
    Innovations are just about exhausted, and any upgrade is generally just a sidestep, not an advanced new
    technology that will sweep the market. Like the sights that mount on the side of the upper, maybe in
    competition but real life, one in a million chance to need it. Or for the serious AR shooter, get the real
    super deluxe, mag loader so you can run more ammo faster, well the ones used to load the 100 round tanks will do
    just fine.
    Another thing, 556 used to be cheap and we could get fairly reliable ammo for a bit of a step up
    in price, now -upcoming- blue collar has to sacrifice to get decent ammo, but average Joe has to go without.
    Shooting is down, I know, because I live where it was an everyday thing, now maybe 3 days a week
    from others, but almost every day from here, mostly just sighting in rifles or reloading with different
    set ups.
    The wall is coming. The sky is falling. Oh, what a world, what a world.
     
  9. Varminterror

    Varminterror Member

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    There are a great number of “military rifles” which are popular - relatively - in a niche market of shooters/owners who want “military rifles.”

    Despite a few rabid folks on arfcom, as someone who fields daily questions about AR’s from would be buyers, and has built and sold hundreds of different AR’s, the overwhelming majority of AR buyers are not buying them because they are “military rifles.”
     
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  10. N555

    N555 Member

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    Even the AFT acknowledged the the AR15 is the most popular firearm sold.
     
  11. BobABQ

    BobABQ Member

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    :rofl:
     
  12. Choctaw

    Choctaw Member

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    So just because someone owns ARs that makes them want to play soldier? I've was firefighter for four years and have been a law enforcement officer for over three decades now. Playing soldier was never something I needed to do. And I bought two more ARs over the weekend. :thumbup:
     
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  13. .455_Hunter

    .455_Hunter Member

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    It's OK- My quote was a response another post completely unrelated to your interpretation. Carry on about your daily business.
     
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  14. someguy2800

    someguy2800 Member

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    It would have been a hard rifle to sell commercially back in the 50's and 60's, but assuming it would have survived I honestly I think the AR15 would be the dominant commercial semi auto rifle on the market today even if the US military had never even looked at it. In fact the US military may have done as much harm to the platform as it did help with the botched rollout in Vietnam giving birth to a bad reputation that still won't die. I could care less what the US military uses or doesn't. I have mine because they work and there just isn't anything better I can buy in terms of modularity, accuracy, cost, and reliability. Make something better and I'll gladly give you my money.
     
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  15. GNP

    GNP Member

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    No.
     
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  16. CapnMac

    CapnMac Member

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    And, go put an eyeball on the MCX--it's an AR10 magwell covered in AR15 parts--it's just piston-powered like the HK416, which has failed to make inroads into the popularity of the AR15.

    Now, were it a Croatian bullpup . . .
     
  17. Phaedrus/69

    Phaedrus/69 Member

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    If this forum still exists in ten years, and of course if I'm still alive, it will be fun to revisit this thread and see how the prognostications have aged! It was my birthday a couple days ago, just turned 53, so with a bit of luck maybe I'll make it to 63 and check the post out again.:D
     
  18. The Glockodile

    The Glockodile Member

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    But Mr. Harelip Man says "I'll take it!" :rofl:
     
  19. Capybara

    Capybara Member

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    With millions upon millions of ARs in civilian hands, the platform won't be diminishing in popularity anytime soon. As far as the new platform, sure a few will want to own it for the cool factor but I predict it will stay a novelty gun and round for quite a while.
    I agree with the others, when the rifles are in a similar price range to a mid-level AR and the ammo is similar in cost to .223, maybe. But that may never happen or it may take so long to happen that the military will dump the new rifle
    and will have moved on to the next "thing".
     
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  20. C-grunt

    C-grunt Member

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    Even if the XM5 sees full adoption and replacement of the M4 for combat troops (that's a big if), the majority of the military are still going to be carrying the M16/M4 for the foreseeable future. Once the Sig Spear becomes readily available it will be a 3000+ dollar rifle. The Scar 17 is a very popular rifle because of it's military use, but not a lot of people have one because of the cost.
     
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  21. citizenconn

    citizenconn Member

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    Not at my compound. I have enough working ARs and replacement parts to keep 75+ guns in multiple calibers (.204 to .358) running for over 50 years easily. That's before I have to start cannibalizing future non-functioning guns for parts, which is, in my opinion, the greatest strength of the AR platform. As long as there is ammo, I'll have an AR to shoot it out of.
     
  22. Ignition Override

    Ignition Override Member

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    If ARs , in a dream world became ie (just a random example) 40 percent less popular a year from now….

    wouldn’t that Reduce prices?

    The whole scenario is fantasy, but when are hypothetical lower prices Bad for consumers?
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2022
  23. Remington1911

    Remington1911 Member

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    A couple more thoughts on this after reading the other comments and doing a little research......you enablers you.

    I had not really looked into it past, oh they are getting a new toy how nice and what is that going to cost. Now (because of this thread) I have done some more looking and now that I am a little more edumacated I want to make a few more comments.

    First off with the OP title of this thread, no.....this is an "AR platform" rifle. No different from the AR's we have seen shooting everything from 50 down to arrows......I am sure someone somewhere has one that shoots arrows....or if it comes out of a gun would it be more like a cross bow bolt....hmmmm This is just the way my brain works.

    The cartridge, after a little research on the cartridge.....ok your reasons for wanting to "up gun" are valid......for the last war you fought. The next one....who knows. The extra weight and power of the 277 I doubt is viable if working at much closer distances. Still researching, but one of the reasons given in many articles is the ability to handle new body armor at greater ranges...ok sounds good, now my question is if the next war is a house to house thing, does the good ole' 223 punch through at say under 100 yards.

    Eh just my thoughts after a few articles. No the AR will not go away this new gun is an AR in a different flavor....no different over what people do now.....and that is a good-ish thing.
     
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  24. Phaedrus/69

    Phaedrus/69 Member

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    Just to clarify, I never said that in two months you won't be able to find an AR!:rofl: I am just speculating that as goes the US Army, so may also go the civilian market. I can still buy a [replica] Hawken .50 cal or an old cap & ball BP pistol so obviously no one is saying the AR will go away. But there's a pretty significant segment of the market that just ass/u/me/s that Big Army must have it figured out so whatever they have is what we should have. Those folks on the fence about the 5.56 NATO round that always kind of felt it was under-powered will now have the "proof" they need that a more potent round. Again, this stipulates wide adoption of the new rifle & exotic 3-pc ammo. Presumably widespread adoption will result in more commercial ammo in the pipeline which equates to more guns sold- rinse and repeat.

    I was talking to a buddy that has used a wide variety of small arms while in the military and doing security/contractor work overseas. His feeling is that the 5.56 worked fine for him inside of a couple hundred yards. His favorite round is the 6.8 SPC, followed by the 7.62 NATO for longer range stuff. He keeps a Colt in 5.56 by the bed and an AR-type piston gun in 7.62x39 for home security. Me, I'm low-speed, high-drag, more MEAL TEAM 6 than operator!:uhoh:;) Just based on hunting experience I figure if it will put down a mule deer it's probably big enough to put down a man.

    Obviously this will bear watching! The venerable AR has had six decades of work and refinement and has become a superb weapon. Certainly mine isn't going anywhere anytime soon. But I'm also open to evidence if there's something demonstrably better.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2022
  25. illinoisburt

    illinoisburt Member

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    Maybe in the first few of decades the draw to the AR family was directly a result of military usage. In the past 10 years I would say that is no longer really the primary reason and now it's more of an industry standard bearer for modular rifles. There really isn't a readily available alternative semi auto rifle platform at a competitive price. Plus since it's not patent protected there are a lot of large and small manufactures putting out reliable pieces people can easily mix/match and still end up with a working firearm. So at this point until someone comes out with a significantly better and price competitive design I would not expect the AR to diminish in popularity.

    As I pondered the situation it also dawned on me that most of the other modern military rifles (post-1890s) were put into civilian hands as surplus, rather than mass produced specifically for the civilian market. It's a subtle but important difference and has a direct impact on future viability.
     
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