WW III ?

[Blackhawk]

2dogs wrote:

Am I wrong - didn't N Korea have fairly favored treatment during the Klinton years?

It sure did plus Jimmy Carter recently placed a big wet kiss on NK "where the sun don't shine" in certifying that it wasn't working on nukes.

However, NK is still in the throes of famine, it can't pay for its army, and the country is destitute. IOW, the favored treatment it has gotten hasn't helped make its problems tolerable.

Out of its desperation, it must make something change or it will inevitibly collapse. Bluffs are much cheaper to run than actually developing and deploying the nuclear capability it claims to have.

Bragging about such capability before the fact smells like a dangerous bluff. NK may indeed soon get nuclear weapons that were "Made in the U.S.A." delivered courtesy of the USAF or the USN.

 

[Strings]

It seems everyone is missing something in this discussion...

... that being, "What will the effect be here in the US?".

You're probably right... China is probably unable to project force across the Pacific to CONUS. However, ther HAS been discussion of all the various potential factors ALREADY WITHIN CONUS that could add to any conflict. While I'm not saying those factors would be acting on China's behalf, they could easily have an impact that would be favorable to China...

 

[cratz2]

All I know is I think our guys stationed in Korea are WAAAYYYY underpaid right about now...

 

[Gordon]

I think we could get all 30,000 sodiers and 20,000 Us civies out in a week if the ROK pres keeps talking US imperialism. He would be begging for US to use laser guided bombs on plutonium refineries with in a week and they would apreciate US for another 40 years.

 

[Zorro]

Screw Surgical Strikes.

Strategic Nukes on the Factories.

That would set a precident that THREATS! of Nuclear weapons will be treated as POSSESION! of Nuclear Weapons, with intent to use them.

Makes the Bluff Fatal. Not just a Tactic.

And Jimmy Carter is an World Class Idiot, the stupidest that the USA has ever produced.

 

[johnr]

Originally posted by PATH
You can be sure we'll be fighting somewhere soon. Probably in several places. Iraq, Korea, amd God knows where else.

We have been at war actually since 9/11! All Americans are now the enemy. We already are in WW4!

That's pretty much the way I see it. I've had a gut feeling which started last Spring that things were going to get real nasty, real quick.

 

[2nd Amendment]

You're entirely right, Blackhawk, that all this is just our opinions. I truly hope yours are right and mine wrong, too. But I can't get past the gut feeling this time that we're opening, or allowing to be opened(or just watching it open itself) a Pandoras Box of devastation.

During the Gulf War I kept hearing various people talk about the fear they had that it would blow up into a global confrontation. I was open to the possibility, sure, but I never believed it. I didn't see it going anywhere because the time didn't "feel" right. Not enough nations in a position and with suifficient grudges to get the job done. No gut feeling. This time, though, I can't shake it and I have even less faith in this Bush than I had in the last one.

 

[2dogs]

I didn't see it going anywhere because the time didn't "feel" right. Not enough nations in a position and with suifficient grudges to get the job done. No gut feeling. This time, though, I can't shake it

2nd amendment

You've pretty much summed up what I was trying to get at- there are too many hot spots to be ignored, and the "gut" feeling that something is in the air. Hopefully we are both wrong- and Saddam and the boys will roll over easy as can be and we're done.

 

[Blackhawk]

This time, though, I can't shake it and I have even less faith in this Bush than I had in the last one.

That may be the difference, 2A.

I have more confidence in GWB than I've ever had in a president. A major reason is that he's trained as an administrator instead of a lawyer or politician as his dad is. After watching him as the Texas governor and seeing his ability to get opposing factions together to get things done (like CCW laws), I thought he would be able to succeed on the national stage.

We're both ex military pilots, me in combat, and he not, but any combat pilot will tell you that the enemy actively trying to kill you is a VERY small part of flying the machines. Point is that to succeed in the training and survive the experience, you have to learn a LOT about yourself, life, systems, and the law of unintended consequences. In flight school, it used to chap me that crashes were almost always attributed to "pilot error." Later on, I found out that was right. The pilot generally made a mistake at point 23 of the flight which crashed at point 174. Unintended consequences!

GHWB got sucked in by lying politicians time and time again. GWB seems to know they're lying, all of them, and squeezes the good stuff from them anyway.

GWB seems to understand the exigencies of war AND THAT WE ARE IN A WAR far better than most of the rest of us. For the first time in our history, Americans live in a war zone, and there's no reason to like it. I think a lot of the things being done are stupid and short sighted in the way they're handled (airport security, for one), but the objectives are clear even though the people actually doing and managing the projects are still incompetent. They're learning, as we all are.

Zoomies have to come to terms with a few things following which they realize that there are far worse things than dying. For example, having your crippled plane crash into a school if you eject. I think most of us agree with Molon Labe in that becoming enslaved sheep is a fate worse than death. Everytime you strap on a military aircraft you must be mentally prepared to accept the consequences, whatever they might be.

The U.S. has never been able to accept foreign domination or mental domination by those seeking to enslave us mentally, but we're dangerously close to the latter. I lived not far from the Nevada Test Site where they were setting off atomic bombs regularly in the '50s. No big deal. An A bomb is child's play compared to an H bomb. You have to MASTER the first to get a ticket to consider the second. NK, Iraq, and the other pretenders to the Nuke club may be close to A bombs, but not to H bombs much less delivery systems. IMO, the threats are manageable, and that's what GWB is doing as rapidly as possible while being ceaselessly hounded by U.S. politicians and citizens alike.

But you've hit on the key point: Do we trust Bush? I do, as much as is appropriate. Others don't. Would I want to live in a country that submitted to blackmail or refused to use its power for getting and keeping humans free? Highly doubtful.

If this is "IT" as regards Armageddon, Molon Labe. However, I believe that destruction will come about only in God's own time, and there's nothing we can do about that. In the meantime, we just have to do the best we can with what we've got. YMMV.

 

[Russ]

Things are so volitile these days, who knows what combination of events will set it off. Noitce I say "will". Man has been warring with one-another since time began so why stop now. These times seem more perilous to me than times past. Too many flash points. However, had I lived in Europe or some parts of Asia during WWII, I would have thought that Armageddon was here.

 

[moa]

According to at least one security expert I saw recently on TV, a big fear is that North Korea will start making nuclear weapons and start peddling them around the world the way it does its missile technology today.

The North Koreans are blackmailing the world.

North Korea is destitute and will probably do anything to make money.

 

[ruger357]

North Korea has me worried.

 

[Viking6]

I read an article almost a year ago about some Chinese colonels developing a strategy of using cyber-warfare to attack the US, bank accounts, stock market, etc. The scenario being played out right now is dangerously close to one of Clancy's more recent novels where a couple of countries did a little "divide and conquer" routine against ol' President Jack Ryan. I had a discussion at a get together the other night with some other couples and they were ringing their hands over the current sit and how little Donnie Rumsfeld wanted to rule the world. I don't like this squat not one little bit (Iraq, AQ, NK, et al) but we didn't throw this party. But, if we stay strong and resolved, we'll drink the last round. It ain't easy, being right often isn't. I also have trust in President Bush and that's from the gut.

 

[2dogs]

And there is still this mess:

"NEW DELHI, India (AP) -- India has accused Pakistan of becoming a terrorist hub and says Islamabad is doing little to curb attacks by Islamic militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir. "

How about Venezuela?

The cauldron is bubbling folks- stand by.

 

[Cosmoline]

I'm reminded of the buildup to WWI much more than the buildup to WWII. Either way, it's scary. Here's the worst case scenario as I see it:

--Powell's "nice and easy, there" approach to North Korea fails, and they arm a few atomic bombs. Maybe just little ones for firing out of artillery. GW then pulls Powell off the case and starts taking a hard line, threatening this and that unless North Korea gives up the bomb and complies with a bunch of other demands. The North Korean leaders, most of whom are a LOT nuttier than your average Moonie, decide the Day of Purification has arrived and it's time to return to Year Zero or somesuch. Off go the a-bombs and there goes about a million people, including lots of US Marines.

--We respond by erasing North Korea, or a large portion of it quite near the Chinese border.

--Chinese civilians are killed in the fallout, and China declares war on the US.

--In the mean time, Sadam, who has escaped ouster, starts launching scuds and maybe chemical warheads at Israel. The US declares war on Iraq, as does an impatient Israel. Jordan and Egypt break ties with Israel and declare support for Iraq.

--During all this, most of Europe refuses to support us due to our "cowboy overreaction" and NATO is on the verge of collapse.

--In the mean time, Pakistan and India start going at it again over Kashmir. This time, with no superpower able to intervene, they come to blows, possibly exchaning atomics and nukes. India cleans Pakistan's clock, one way or the other. The Arab world decries India's brutality and they break ties.

--Things go down hill from there. China probably tries to re-take Tawain. Possible repeat of the Korean War over control of Korea, only with more radiation in the air.

 

[2dogs]

Here's the worst case scenario as I see it:

Cosmoline

When the movie comes out- no doubt you will have written the script.

 

[Bahadur]

All this hysteria over North Korea, China, "WWIII" or whatever else the ratings-seeking hyper-media are selling this evening is precisely the reason why people ought to read more and watch less TV. And when I say "read," I don't mean a two-page Web "exclusive" on why North Korea will initiate "WWIII" either.

Let's look at these things rationally for a minute:

China:

Can China threaten US security? Yes, it surely can. As a significant regional power, it can disturb the balance of power in East Asia and create instability (though without the ability to actually threaten CONUS save for a handful of highly inaccurate ICBMs).

Does China threaten US security? No, it does not (and certainly not in the conventional sense). First of all, as others pointed out, PRC has no power projection capability. Its air force is largely incapable of mid-air refueling. Despite the hooplah over a handful of showcase units made up of EXPORT versions of Su-27's, its air force is largely obsolete while its pilots are woefully undertrained.

Nor does the PRC have any kind of a serious amphibious capability. It is currently incapable of mounting an amphibious assault on Taiwan unless the PLA sees the "million man swim" as a viable strategy.

Sure, all this does not mean that China is not modernizing its forces. It is. But our force modernization is proceeding MUCH MUCH faster. Furthermore, the core concern of the PRC leadership is not Taiwan (though that always remains on the backburner). Its main focus is the preservation of the communist power monopoly while China passes through a precarious economic transition in the WTO era.

North Korea:

North Korea can cry about "weapons more powerful than atomic bombs" all it wants, but it remains a third-rate starving nation with an obsolete military force (in the mean time, its neighbor, and our close ally despite the recent political fracas, ROK is deploying fourth-generation MBTs and soon F-15K's). The only thing North Korea has is its ability to damage Seoul in the early phase of any potential conflict.

That's a mighty tenuous one-shot bolt to hold on to for the North Korean leadership. If it values its personal survival (which it most certainly does), it is unlikely to fling that last bolt.

The latest provocation is merely the rantings of a sad, pathetically desperate regime playing word-games to extort more aid - which it is unlikely to get from an American president with any modicum of backbone. Even the ROK government, which played up the cheap anti-American angle to win the recent presidential election against a conservative, pro-American opponent, is now "condemning" the "dangerous provocations from the North."

Cyber Warfare:

What about the "cyber warfare" stuff? "Information warfare" as its advocates call it, is certainly a worthy aspect of warfare to study. The fact is that the US is the single most dominant military power in the world today, and that dominance is increasing (even over our European allies). In a not-too-distant future, I expect the US military to deploy fully designed and implemented CUAVs and other drones (air, sea, land and space).

Our enemies and potential enemies comprehend this superiority and understand that it would be foolish to fight us conventionally. They'd simply be blown away to kingdom come. It, therefore, follows that they seek assymetrical ways of fighting us (9/11 attacks being an example). To that extent, the PLA planning staff exploring non-conventional means of combating the world's top dog is not that odd or threatening.

It is often said by "cyber warfare" alarmists that complex societies are more vulnerable to cyber warfare. What they often neglect to tell is that complex societies are also more resilient, because of built-in redudancies within the networked society. In fact, the (more primitive) societies with hierarchical systems are much more vulnerable in information warfare than complex, networked societies.

In that sense, our information warfare capabilities are substantially deeper than others in the world, PRC included. As Pearl Harbor, and the destruction of the Pacific Fleet, was but a single battle in a wider war, an "electronic Pearl Harbor" will not be the first and last battle of any so-called Cyber War either. In such a struggle, we are more likely to triumph than not.

Being a fan of Sun Tzu (I happen to own a collection of several different versions and volumes of Sun Tzu) and an early advocate and scholar of information warfare, I try not to underestimate the opponent, but overestimation of one's potential enemies is just as dangerous. Recall that Sun Tzu advocated sound understandings of both one's own capabilities and that of one's opponents.

 

[Monkeyleg]

Bahadur, that was great. Are you perhaps looking at Powell's job?

 

[Bahadur]

Monkeyleg:

Naaahhh. I'm looking for Condi's job when she runs for president in 2008!

Thanks for the compliment.

 

[Glock Glockler]

Bahadur,

As far as asymettrical warfare goes, would the best way to harm the US be for countries that normally horde US currency and treasury bonds to dump them into the market and go to something else, like gold perhaps? I hear that the Arab countries are thinking about going to a de facto gold standard backed currency for international trading.

What could these and other economic warfare tactics do to our national security?

 

[2dogs]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....3KPNKICRBAEKSFFA?type=topNews&storyID=1978147[/URL]

Not to beat a dead horse here folks, but this is not a good thing to throw in to the boiling stew.

U.S. Bombs Hit Pakistan Town After Border Clash
Tue December 31, 2002 09:53 AM ET
BAGRAM, Afghanistan (Reuters) - The U.S. military bombed an abandoned religious school on Pakistani territory after a gunbattle between U.S. and Pakistani troops on the border with Afghanistan, Pakistan officials said Tuesday.
The U.S. military said that one of its soldiers had been wounded in Afghanistan Sunday in an exchange of gunfire with a Pakistani border guard. A Pakistani official said two border guards were also injured.

Pakistan is a close U.S. ally in the war on terror and says it has stationed 60,000-70,000 troops on the Afghan border to help track down remnants of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network and leaders of the Taliban regime that sheltered them.

The wounded American was part of a unit conducting a mission with Pakistani forces along the Afghan border when a disagreement appeared to break out, according to a statement released by the U.S. military at their Afghan headquarters at Bagram air base.

"A Pakistani border scout opened fire with a G3 rifle after the U.S. patrol asked him to return to the Pakistan side of the border," the statement said.

"That individual and several others retreated to a nearby structure," it added. "Close air support was requested and one 500-lb bomb was dropped on the target area."

Mohammad Khurshied, a local official in Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal area close to the Afghan border, later told Reuters that a seminary in the Pakistani town of Angor Adda had been hit by U.S. warplanes.

A Pakistani intelligence official said two bombs were dropped on Pakistani soil, but he reported no injuries.

Haji Anar Gul, a businessman in the area, added that the bombs fell on a religious seminary known as the Maulvi Mohammad Hassan madrassah, damaging its boundary wall and main gate.

The U.S. military said the incident happened near the Afghan village of Shkin, which lies on the border with Pakistan.

"We are working with the Pakistanis for an accurate battlefield damage assessment from the incident," it said.

According to Khurshied, a series of talks between U.S. and Pakistani military officials on the border had resolved differences surrounding Sunday's incident.

The U.S. statement did not give details of the joint U.S. and Pakistani mission or say whether it was taking place inside Pakistan or Afghanistan.

U.S. forces patrolling eastern Afghanistan for al Qaeda fugitives say they cooperate with Pakistani forces on the other side of the border, but do not cross into Pakistani territory to pursue fugitives.

The U.S. statement also did not say what the Pakistani border guard was doing inside Afghanistan.

The wounded soldier was flown to Germany for medical treatment and is in stable condition, the U.S. military said.


Musharrif had best watch his back.

Cool new smilies- the OMG wouldn't work though.

 

[Bahadur]

Glock Glocker:

As far as asymettrical warfare goes, would the best way to harm the US be for countries that normally horde US currency and treasury bonds to dump them into the market and go to something else, like gold perhaps?

Alas, most of the US currency and T-bonds are held by allies like Japan, the UK and Germany whose economic interests are largely to tied those of ours.

Besides, what would they do with their own mounds of currency if they "cash out"?

2dogs:

The story is not that odd. Waziris exist on both sides of the Afghan-Pak border. The national boundary exists in name only in that particular part of Pakistan.

 

[2nd Amendment]

This is another of those things I get tired of. Discuss possibilities and someone is always there to pop up with some version of "hysterical".

The world is in a situation it has never been in before. Possibilities we can't imagine can occur. We regularly heap our own world view and morals on others as reasons this or that won't happen. The fact is we live in perhaps the most interesting times in history right now. Considering the possibilities doesn't make me hysterical and realizing there are a lot of nuts with great power who look at the world from an angle I can't even recognize doesn't make me fringe.

 

[Bahadur]

2nd Amendment:

This is another of those things I get tired of. Discuss possibilities and someone is always there to pop up with some version of "hysterical".

Don't be so hysterical!

The world is in a situation it has never been in before.

Unless you think history is cyclical, the world is ALWAYS in a situation it has never been in before.

Possibilities we can't imagine can occur.

True enough. 9/11 rang a lot of people's bells, mine included (I was busy looking at information warfare, WMD and transnational organized crime).

The fact is we live in perhaps the most interesting times in history right now.

Then again, I bet a lot of people through various historical periods thought that they were living in "the most interesting times in history."

Considering the possibilities doesn't make me hysterical...

Considering possibilities does not. Consider bizzarre possibilities with low chances of occurrence does. Hey, then again, you are crazy when you spout bizzarre theories... until you are proven to be right.

Be that as it may, I tend to think that discussions like this one are better served by cold, rational calculations and estimations of possibilities based on reliable information rather than sensational stories gathered from television news or 2-paragraph Web "exclusives."

 

[gtmerkley]

Who starter this thread back up? I want to Know