The True Meaning of Ammo Being Back on the Shelves

More available where I live (Connecticut) because if you do not have an "Ammunition" permit or Pistol Permit, you can't buy it.

.22 lr is still pretty scarce but everything else except .380 is available

rodregier said:

With the new level of base consumption much higher than the prior "normal" for .22LR,
it could be as long as say Dec/2015 before availability on .22LR specifically gets back to what it was in Nov/2012. Prices will inevitably be higher. How much higher is an open question.

Mfgr and their suppliers were essentially maxed out in .22LR production capacity, carefully matched to the level of actual consumption. With the new higher level of consumption between all of the new shooters and the existing folks who bought .22LR firearms to workaround other shortages, it's a new ball game.

Mfgr will have to:
- Wait to confirm it isn't a bubble
- Order production machinery
- Acquire/allocate land for new production lines
- Build structures for new production lines
- Hire and train staff for new production lines

Suppliers to above manufacturers (sheet brass, extruded lead wire, propellant, priming compound) will have to repeat the above process too, except they will have to wait until their customer (the finished .22LR mfgr) tells them they intend to permanently expand production.

When all of that new capacity gets brought online, it's output will immediately be consumed by all of the pent up demand by customers waiting 6+ months for better pricing and/or better availability.

Such are the foibles of a fine-tuned supply/demand marketplace :-(

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This.

I find these "ammo" threads always interesting.

It seems some areas of the country have plenty of ammo available locally, while others still have bare shelves. And what's more interesting is how many of us will judge the ammo situation by the availability of 22lr ammo.

At least in my neck of the woods the ammo situation seems to be getting a little better. There is plenty of 223/5.56 at my local Walmart, and even 308, 40sw, 45, 380. 9mm and 22lr is hit-or-miss, but if you go early enough in the morning you can catch it in stock before it sells out.

Interestingly enough I saw bricks of 22lr on display for sale at my lgs when I went to the shooting range last weekend. Bricks of 550rd Thunderbolts for $39/box with no limits, and no one panicking to buy it all. I know it's not the best price, but $39/brick of 22lr is still much better during the height of the panic.

JTHunter said:

Don't feel bad Carlson1. The WalFarts up here (2 of them) have raised their prices for the Winchester 555 bulk from $21.97 to $51.97!!

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And folks continue to buy at those prices, which justifies the decision for the price hike.
I don't think we'll see cheap .22LR anymore, or at least for a long time. The majority of .22LR I have on hand was purchased for $1.50/50 not all that long ago. The same stuff sells for $5/50 or more now, simply because folks are willing to pay that.

When people allow a brick of .22LR with a $50 price tag to collect some dust on the shelf, then the prices will recede. Until then, expect stupid prices.

I think prices will continue to come down slowly.
I feel that when an average Joe can walk into his favorite place to buy ammo and there is at least enough for his needs, he'll stop paying the scalper's prices. When the scalpers end up not turning their inventory, they'll sell it for what they got in it and move on. When the scalpers stop buying, more stays on the shelves a bit longer and prices will stabilize. It's a cycle up and then down. However, as others have said, we are one incident away from an even longer and harder shortage. Every one who was bitten by this shortage should buy more and shoot less until they can't buy another round because they have no place to store it.

I stumbled across three boxes of Federal bulk 325's today at Walmart. Success!

Walmart today had 50 rd boxes of Winchester regular .22 HP for $8.99 a box.

Hmm, we'll pass on that. They did have Russian .45 APC for $15.57/box, seemed reasonable enough, except I don't have a .45.

BassPro had pretty full shelves of rifle and shotgun ammo, and I did buy a 100 rd box of (Russian) Tula 7.62x39, $26 + change. Not great, but not bad.

Actually, should have bought another box.

Not to go off-topic but my local pawn shop wants to buy a lot of my ammo in any/all calibers... most interested in .22LR, of course. I told her I have Remington Game Loads, Aguila SSS, and another frangible copper-plate type. I have several thousand rounds of it and asked what it's worth to them. The lady said, "I can buy 400rd boxes (from one of the big sporting stores) for $35/box. I can offer that much or a bit more. I'd like to have it on the shelves even if I only make a couple bucks." I asked, "Is that standard velocity round nose?" She said, "Yes, Remington unplated round nose". I asked, "And you can buy as many boxes as you want?". She said, "Well, no." I asked, and it's always in stock when you go there?" She said, "Well, no." I asked, "And you don't mind driving a 60 mile round trip to maybe buy one or two boxes?" (we're in a rural area). She said, "That's why I want to buy yours." I said, "Well, I'll think about it."

Davek1977 said:

Are you sure? Thats the EXACT price I paid for a 1000 round bulk pack of Winchester M22 22LR this morning at 7AM.

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I think he is mistaken.

He is yelling awfully loudly about it in all kinds of threads though.

Just in time delivery has been shown to be inefficient in shortages.

If Hillary runs in 2016; you can count on another gun/ammo scare. 1994...

I think some of the people posting these high Walmart prices are mistaken .
I've not seen Walmart try to gouge and take advantage of the situation. Their prices are as good as you will find.

bushmaster1313: True, too little shooting. Only 30-40 rds. went from the SKS into the clay pigeons on the sandbar today. Overkill for Tula softpoints? That seems to be all that Academy has.

huntsman: The next panic might not be total oblivion (though you could be correct), but it easily could make last winter's over-reaction look mild, with a much longer duration.
Online must be the best way to shop: I tried to find a buddy some low-cost 9mm Luger at Academy Sports last Sunday pm, and the lowest price seemed to be .60/rd. No way.

I'll continue to stockpile

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I wish I could stockpile. I can't buy much .22 at all. If you call buying up 325 rounds and thinking it's the best day you've had for buying .22 in 10 months "stockpiling" then yeah I guess I am.

I have not bought a round of budget/bulk .22 in almost a year. I am glad I stocked up last year, but have been rationing myself.

I have bought plenty of match ammo and have been shooting the benchrest/target guns more and the plinkers less.

Finally seeing .22 lr back on the shelves here in Az! Just starting shooting it again last week, that was nice! Planing on using up some crap .22 I bought during the lean days and keep replacing it with the better stuff that is finally back on shelves! Walmart here is charging pretty fair I have to say.

When people allow a brick of .22LR with a $50 price tag to collect some dust on the shelf, then the prices will recede. Until then, expect stupid prices.

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This. The current panic pricing and lack of stock on .22LR ammo is not due to "hoarders" or "flippers" or "newbies" it is entirely due to people who continue to pay stupid prices for no good reason. If they would stop paying inflated prices, the flippers would stop stripping Walmart every morning, the retailers would drop their prices, and ammo will start being available again.

mdauben said:

This. The current panic pricing and lack of stock on .22LR ammo is not due to "hoarders" or "flippers" or "newbies" it is entirely due to people who continue to pay stupid prices for no good reason. If they would stop paying inflated prices, the flippers would stop stripping Walmart every morning, the retailers would drop their prices, and ammo will start being available again.

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I call Bull patties on your statement. To claim new shooters to the hobby(5-20 million) have no impact on ammo supply and then go on to claim that someone getting a couple boxes a week at whatever price they can is the reason there is no ammo is simply a statement without a single fact to support it.

You know we are what 11 months into this and people still have no idea how much ammo is being delivered to stores like walmart or Academy. A case in fact my local Academy got all of 2 cases of federal automatch,325 count boxes on Monday. Two cases even before this mess happened wouldn't have lasted an hour on their ammo shelf. Add a shortage to the mix and that two cases has to last all week.

What we have here are people blaming others for their own failures, laziness or whatever. If one really wants the ammo then you will find your ammo. Don't tell me its not out there. It is and I've bought some 30,000 plus rounds of 22lr alone. Sometimes all I got was a 50 round box, sometimes nothing and sometimes a 1600 count of CCI mini mags but it wasn't easy. It took waiting in the cold winter mornings for several hours just for the chance to buy if it was available. It was important enough to me to make the effort to acquire the ammo I need and I was successful in doing so.

Quite frankly I don't like being called names by those to lazy and unwilling to make the effort needed to acquire ammo they need. The ammo is there. If those posting complaints about others put half that energy into acquiring ammo they would have a nice stockpile by now. I know because thats just what I did. Instead of complaining in January when I realized I had got caught short I decided would rectify the problem and make sure it would never happen again. I did an inventory of my ammo, stopped shooting matches, found out who had a regular delivery of ammo, found out what days it came in and started showing up. Its The last day of October and outside of 38spl,41mag and .303 British I'm in good shape. This experience believe it or not has been quite rewarding. I have about 30 new shooting partners, 50 new friends, more knowledge, 2 S&W revolvers I had been looking for and I've managed to get a few new people not only shooting but two are getting their CCW, one is a politician and several are now shooting trap. You can complain or you can make things happen. Its your choice.

Some people complained AND eventually got ammo.


I know. I watched them do it all year.

Along these lines, SGAmmo has 440 count and 880 count cases of 7.62x54r available right now a a great price ($90 shipped for each spam can, which is the best I've been able to find online (or at local places)).

I just ordered, and would recemend you do too if you want to get some. Based on the number of cases SGAmmo has already sold it won't be on the shelves for too long.

It means reloaderes like me are getting a lot of free brass again!

Ammo is out there. but like others have said. sometimes you get lucky - and other times you gotta work for it. For the time being, and into the reasonable future - the days of walking in and buying a days worth of random blasting are gone. You gotta plan now.

It will probably be another 6 months+ before we really see 22 ammo available on demand. And by then the price will probably stabilize at 125-150% of what it was before. $25 might be the new norm for bulk packs.

myFRAGisFUBAR said:

It means reloaderes like me are getting a lot of free brass again!

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What brass. If people could get away with it they would grab your brass before it hit the ground. My local outdoor range is usually messy with brass under foot but you can't find brass anywhere now and its not because they are cleaning the range more often its because people are not leaving their brass behind anymore.

I would love to know were all these magical walmarts are that are carrying 22 at reasonable prices (as well as 223). All the ones around here are out, or only have 223 that is above 50 cents a round