I started reloading when I shot USPSA in the early 90s. I was told by other match shooters that I needed to reload to produce more accurate than factory ammunition at lower cost. They also told me to stock up enough supplies to last the shooting season and practice sessions (I was shooting 1000-4000+ rounds a month for practice).
Since then, I have seen several component shortages cycle and each time, I increased my supplies from 1-2 years to 3-5 years then to 5-7 years then to last my retirement (several times over).
Yes, I watched the market and bought A LOT during really good sales and Black Friday specials that peaked after the "Great Component Shortage" outlined in this archived thread -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...nts-available-not-a-discussion-thread.707473/
I am concerned about current price of primers because it allows us to price trend to see if cycle peak has reached and when the bottom of cycle has reached to alert members buy/stock up on primers. During my 30+ years of shooting/reloading, I have spent over $180,000 on shooting/reloading on 650,000+ pistol rounds alone. Believe me, if you shoot a lot, most of money spent will go to ammunition/reloading component cost and I am interested in saving members as much as possible. (BTW since Thanksgiving, wife and I had to liquidate our properties in anticipation of moving/caring for my aging parents and I had to liquidate over 90% of my shooting/reloading equipment and supplies. Much of my guns, ammunition, reloading equipment and component supplies including primers were "pay it forward" to neighbors, friends, family/relatives, ex-coworkers and their friends in need without charging them anything. So while I still have sufficient reloading supplies for now, I will be restocking primers in the future)
My predictive abilities come from having gone through previous component shortages and watching price trends. That's all.
We are simply seeing another component shortage cycle that has been aggravated by historic record setting number of firearms sold the past decade and in recent years. 100+ million new guns sold with many new gun owners put a demand on supply side of industry that has failed to catch up (Jake from RMR has anticipated this and worked to double his production capacity around the last shortage and found soon after he needed to have more than quadrupled production capacity).
Those fairly new members may not remember but due to cyclical nature of component shortages, Walkalong, I and many members reminded other members to stock up on supplies when we were at the bottom of the cycle on numerous threads. Here's one -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/what-to-stock-up-on.855885/page-2#post-11226344
"As to buying too much, don't worry.
Walkalong and many others will smile at this. When I was stocking up on Wolf primers for $14/1000, I thought perhaps I was buying too much. Fast forward to 2019 where primers are $28/1000 and I wish I had bought more.
I stocked up on S&B and Winchester primers when they were around $20/1000 and looking back now, wish I had bought MORE!
I don't think we will be seeing $20/1000 primers anymore ... or $78/8 lbs of Promo ... So, stock up when prices are low and items in stock.
I have a feeling like 10-15 years from now, we'll be looking back when primers are $38/1000 and powders are $250/8 lbs and post that we should have bought more when primers were $28/1000 and Promo was $115/8 lbs at Powder Valley.
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/what-to-stock-up-on.855885/#post-11225563"
I tell you, I didn't think we would be seeing $100-$150/1000 primer prices anytime soon but here we are.
But now's the time to be saving up money as looks like we have seen the cycle peak and prices are starting to come back down with more and more supplies returning back in stock. And as in previous component shortages, we will be urging members again to stock up when the cycle bottom looks to have reaches as demonstrated by popular items in stock and readily available with manufacturers/vendors offering sales.
Be patient.