Interestingly, I opened up the newspaper today, looked at the sales circulars from Gander Mountain, Academy and a Local Gun Store and they were all three advertising Ruger, S&W, Colt, and Bushmaster ARs for MORE than they had been offering them for before the election.
Gun Prices are Headed in the Right Direction: DOWN
- Thread starter Solomonson
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Ignition Override
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My lighty-used S&W M&P Sport II 'AR' never got a bite over the last two weeks ago on Armslist TN.
Feedback suggests that many people expect to pay just $550 for a complete AR, or there is very limited demand. It must be 'deflation' as people watch like buzzards in a `published holding pattern.
This ATL Airport hotel computer searched Armslist on Google, and immed. listed the Atlanta GA area. I've never seen so many ARs on the market in just one area.
hdwhit: Do those newer retail ads include extra gear such as scopes etc, or are they just basic ARs? It looks like collusion, but might be a coincidental marketing experiment.
Feedback suggests that many people expect to pay just $550 for a complete AR, or there is very limited demand. It must be 'deflation' as people watch like buzzards in a `published holding pattern.
This ATL Airport hotel computer searched Armslist on Google, and immed. listed the Atlanta GA area. I've never seen so many ARs on the market in just one area.
hdwhit: Do those newer retail ads include extra gear such as scopes etc, or are they just basic ARs? It looks like collusion, but might be a coincidental marketing experiment.
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Solomonson
Member
By definition selling at (or obviously below) the "direct costs of production" is selling at a loss because there are costs that constitute Cost of Sales (COS) in addition to "direct costs of production. That would mean sub-$100 pricing for plastic fantastic 9's which just isn't going to happen.
The margin on these sorts of firearms are absurd -- made possible by patents and more recently ferociously high demand. Prices won't drop on this product is anything close to direct correlation to demand unless one of the respected makers massively cuts their prices to stimulate sales which I don't expect to happen.
I don't know exactly how much the makers stuffed into the distribution channel before throttling back production, but it shouldn't be all that much.
The Great Mass Extinction of 2017/2018 in firearms manufacturers and firearms accessories manufacturers will see more than 50% of the myriad companies disappear, bankrupt, gobbled up or just fold their tents. This will stabilize prices. Get your's while the getting in good.
Ammo prices are already down to $4/box of .22lr at Rural King. COR15 rifles, Fedderson precision barrels on them, are being sold there for $700 (brilliant price).
They had enormous quantities ready to go anticipating another spike in demand driven by the election. Since the results were different than anticipated the retailers cancelled large orders planned for delivery and sale in Nov/Dec/Jan. That caused a cascade down the line all the way to the receiver forges and small parts manufacturers.
Ammo prices are already down to $4/box of .22lr at Rural King. COR15 rifles, Fedderson precision barrels on them, are being sold there for $700 (brilliant price).
They had enormous quantities ready to go anticipating another spike in demand driven by the election. Since the results were different than anticipated the retailers cancelled large orders planned for delivery and sale in Nov/Dec/Jan. That caused a cascade down the line all the way to the receiver forges and small parts manufacturers.
Hanzo581
Member
Yeah, as excited as I am to score some deals, we're going to lose a lot of small businesses in the end. You can't just slash your prices and maintain business as usual.
What has surprised me is that the big box stores in my area all seem to have concluded that a certain level of demand is structural and thus largely insensitive to price as they have actually been raising prices on their rifles in the face of weaker demand.
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Solomonson
Member
You can if the prices were way out of line to begin with. I don't think the margin on selling or distributing guns is all that much. It was largely the manufacturers that made the killing over the past 8+ years.
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Solomonson
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Solomonson
Member
Those "large orders" cannot simply be cancelled. Delivery might be spread out -- which would still impact future shipments, but they're not going to be cancelled without a penalty.
What interests me is just how the makers had "enormous quantities ready to go"? Did they actually work OT or add direct labor to meet what they felt would be a post-election pop?
The fact is, if retailers and the distribution channel is stuffed, it had to be done over a matter of several months. Demand for guns began slackening well before the election. If the manufacturers continued full bore to flood the pipeline with product, that's always very risky.
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Ed Ames
Member
It is interesting to read Ruger's 8-K reports including just before the election and going back through the past 8 years or so.
One of the patterns you see is that they were working on shifting production to more popular products, and increasing efficiency. Their total production capacity increased, and they shifted production to more popular (which likely means "perceived as likely to be banned") products.
Ignition Override
Member
It seems that along with ARs and components (on 'AKfiles'), there was a serious over supply of AK derivatives before the election.
If word soon spreads very far about the inferior-grade steel barrels/receivers used in the US-made (Not the formerly imported WASRs) Century RAS, C39 and the I.O. brands, either quickly-reduced production or price discounting might be dramatic and really ironic?
If word soon spreads very far about the inferior-grade steel barrels/receivers used in the US-made (Not the formerly imported WASRs) Century RAS, C39 and the I.O. brands, either quickly-reduced production or price discounting might be dramatic and really ironic?
Probably so, but the profit margins have to be very slime right now. Just like the oil from Williston ND and Canada.
Sam1911
Moderator Emeritus
Export? Is there a large untapped market for US-made civilian/consumer firearms overseas?
Just at a guess, based on my understanding of the laws of other nations, I'd imagine that the entire lawful civilian gun demand of the rest of the world would be about equivalent to that of one middling US state. But I'd like to see real data on that.
Not to mention the fact that in countries where there is gun ownership like Turkey, Czech republic,.....there is domestic production of guns.
.....and the cost of standard Ruger AR is about $450 now. The only hope for some not necessarily Strum & Ruger is shift in mid-term elections and who wins in 2020.
Sam1911
Moderator Emeritus
Indeed. And they spend a fair bit of their production on exporting to US.
There's a lot of interesting info here: http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/
Specifically here: http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/armed-actors/civilians.html
Though they admit they have a very hard time parsing out lawful vs. unlawful ownership, and of course can only make estimates as any sort of registration scheme has very spotty compliance in even the most locked-down regimes.
Looking at the US vs. the rest of the world as gun consumers, only a certain subset of the kinds of guns we make are lawful for sale to civilians in those countries where civilians can own guns at all, and can purchase our products as imports. I'm not sure if there's any civilian market at all for our AR-15s, semi-auto AKs, FALs, and other military-style autoloading rifles in more than a tiny handful of countries around the world. Handgun sales seem almost as limited.
okayletsgo
Member
This.
Ed Ames
Member
Out of curiosity, is anyone finding that prices are actually down in a general sense? If I was just describing what I see with my own eyes I'd say prices seem to be up, e.g. a pistol I paid $1050 for in 2016 is now selling for $1150 in the same store, and that's still less than Bud's wants. Several stores seem to have tacked $50-$100 on all of their prices.
salt&battery
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I have seen the same as you have. it seems only the AR's are coming down and after all the money they made selling most for 800-1000+ dollars they can still make money at $500
Rail Driver
Member
I dunno ... ARs are definitely a dime a dozen anymore, but almost everything else I've been looking at has been increasing bit by bit. Long gone are the days of the $100 SKS or the $400 AK. Even the budget Rock Island 1911s are no longer $425 new - now they're over $500 new on average. In fact, I'd say more guns are increasing in price than are decreasing.
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Solomonson
Member
Actually the PRICE of an Ruger AR is now about $450.00 Have you ever considered the possibility that Ruger's actual COST of one of their ARs is low enough to still make good money when they're sold for $450?
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Solomonson
Member
But there are identifiable reasons (constraints on importing) for the increase in the prices of low-priced SKSs and AKs. Every new gun that I personally track has dropped in price.
salt&battery
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besides AR's what new guns are going down? I do not see any
Ignition Override
Member
Sam1911: regarding some foreign gun ownership.
You Mods might be well aware of this, but this is mentioned for those who don't see this on Youtube etc.
A video from England a few years ago shows a young guy "Jubbles ***" shooting his Ruger Mini 14 at a very long, deep outdoor range (400, maybe 600 yards long) . At first glance it appears to be a typical Semi-auto Mini,
until you see how the action operates.
British law requires that the gun can only operate by the bolt being chambered Manually for each shot. These conversions are probably performed in the UK?
As for ARs right now, some people expect those which sold for $700 a year ago, with no visible scratches or other external wear, to sell for $550 on Armslist TN.
Solomonson: That $450 Ruger price helps explain a lot. People either already have what they want, or just sit back and wait for Deflation to push prices lower?
You Mods might be well aware of this, but this is mentioned for those who don't see this on Youtube etc.
A video from England a few years ago shows a young guy "Jubbles ***" shooting his Ruger Mini 14 at a very long, deep outdoor range (400, maybe 600 yards long) . At first glance it appears to be a typical Semi-auto Mini,
until you see how the action operates.
British law requires that the gun can only operate by the bolt being chambered Manually for each shot. These conversions are probably performed in the UK?
As for ARs right now, some people expect those which sold for $700 a year ago, with no visible scratches or other external wear, to sell for $550 on Armslist TN.
Solomonson: That $450 Ruger price helps explain a lot. People either already have what they want, or just sit back and wait for Deflation to push prices lower?
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