America's Firearm and Ammo Supply Chain Safe?

FlSwampRat said:

One customer wanted to know if he could use 10mm in his 9mm gun as it was "only one bigger".

Click to expand...

Admit it - you were tempted ... You didn't say "yes" - but you at least thought about it , right?

ohihunter2014 said:

My gf did right today. Last 3 loafs of bread on the shelf and o needed one for my mom and she needed one. She didn’t take 3. She said I left one for someone who actually needs it.

Click to expand...

There you go - not everyone sucks.

Too late for the "If people start hoarding ammo". It's on as of a few days ago. A local gun store sold over 300k rounds of 9mm and 5.56 in a few days. The websites are drying up too.

I have noticed that sales have spiked and online sources appear to be thinning out. I do believe this will pass, but sales will likely remain as we ramp up to election time.

Do I have enough ammo? I don't know. How much do I need? I haven't checked on my .223 stash since even though I have two ARs in that caliber, I haven't shot either one for over a year. I really don't like them, but keep them around for SHTF. I have maybe 500-600 rounds? That's a lifetime of shooting at my current rate.

My AR in .450 Bushmaster is a camping/hiking gun and I just bought another box of Hornady Black ammo for it last week, brings the total to around 100 rounds. For what I use it for, that's plenty, but low. I reload for it, so I could stand to get more cases and components than the 100 or so on hand.

9mm went from around 1000 down to around 500 following a couple of epic range sessions with the new P365 and Extar, so I'm low on that, I guess. But, I have the ability to crank out another 500-800 rounds or so with the components I have on hand.

.22 LR, I rarely shoot .22 so the 3-4k rounds I bought after the last panic will last me years and years.

I think I'm pretty good to go, but others may laugh at my low numbers. I really don't foresee me having to get into any firefights any time soon. I have a few thousand primers in various flavors and around 20lbs of powder in different varieties, so probably fine.

Now, if I suddenly changed my shooting habits and got more time to actually shoot, then I would run out in a couple of months.

Hartkopf said:

People are showing there unpreparedness everywhere.

Click to expand...

You have summed up this entire discussion in a single, succinct sentence.

Yesterday, I ventured out to get some stuff for my in-laws, who have mobility issues. Even in our "small" town of less than 300k, I saw the same things all of you are witnessing. (Well, I haven't heard of any violence, yet.)

I've been preaching preparedness for at least a decade, and people and relatives think I'm a loon. Now, their lack of preparedness is shining through.

Hartkopf said:

I hope this blows over in a month but if it turns into a long winter, there are more important things to buy than another gun. (assuming you already have a couple)

Click to expand...

That's how I see it. There a few holes in my preps, but nothing outrageous. I recently discovered that I left all my 00 buckshot at my hunting cabin last season, and it's sold out everywhere. No biggie. A shotgun is a tertiary gun for me; it's something I would loan to an in-law if he needed a gun. (He'll just be getting some 3" #2 goose loads for it rather than 00.)

I resisted the urge to go out and buy a new 92FS-even though I've been wanting one for about 3 years. Priorities.

In regards to the original discussion topic, we are going to see-are already seeing-significant economic effects and we will eventually see supply chain disruptions. But first, I want to point out that many people here are referring to runs on goods and the subsequent empty shelves as a supply chain disruption; they are not. Those are demand side anomalies. Demand is far greater than normal, causing shortages. Remember, grocery stores typically only stock enough supplies to meet normal demand for three days. Any significant increase in demand will deplete that stock in less time.

Later in this event-weeks from now-as workers stay home sick, stay home to care for others, stay home out of fear, die off, etc., factories and distribution networks will begin to fail and will be working at reduced capacity. Production will be reduced, and it will take longer to refill stores. This will cause shortages (even if demand falls from what we're seeing today). If demand holds at the present level (panic buying of goods) and the supply chain breaks down as noted above, we may be in for a serious ride. Remember: if demand increases and supply remains constant, there will be shortages and subsequent increase in prices; if supply falls and demand remains constant, there will be shortages and subsequent increase in prices...what do you think will happen if supply falls and demand increases...at the same time?

And, of course, these basic economic principles apply to all goods, not just food and not just firearms.

Forgot about lead. Just ordered 25 lbs of it that was "hard-cast" that I use for my woods carry loads. About $3.90 a pound, which is not great, but will last me a year or more.

ohihunter2014 said:

...Meanwhile I watched a woman snatch a case of spaghetti from a worker and cases of canned goods off pallets. I then watched an 80yo man in his power chair circle the aisles at Walmart looking for food....

Click to expand...

Disgusting and heartbreaking.

So, I have to come clean, after saying I wouldn't order any ammo I ended up ordering some just a little while ago. I went down to do a quick count and I only have about 2/3 of what I thought I had. So, ordered 300 rounds of Armscor 223 from Ammofast since they had the best price after shipping. Added a 20 round box of their 55 gr V-Max loads as well for the heck of it. After this purchase, though, I really don't need anymore to be somewhat comfortable. I just want to be able to shoot at least a couple range trips without feeling like I need to ration.

The one thing I'm way short on is 38/357, but I don't really shoot my revolvers much at all and I don't see those being in as high of demand as 223, 9mm, and maybe even 45.

BigBL87: I prefer Golden Bullet or Automatch, but have plenty of Federal stored at home. Fed is not so reliable in the new Ruger Mark IV or M&P....so...

An hour ago I almost entered my credit card number for three smallish bricks of Automatch...
..then I saw that “TN Sales Tax” had been added.

—No way!
I deleted the page. You guys can have all the .22 you want if you consider both Shipping And Sales Tax acceptable. If my local Academy raises prices much (nobody can forecast), I would then simply wait as long as needed for the prices to return to normal, while using my weakish Federal “blue box”.

ohihunter2014 said:

One cart at Walmart had about 10 jugs of Lysol wipes in it. Hell washing every day it would take me 3 months to get through all those wipes. My gf did right today. Last 3 loafs of bread on the shelf and o needed one for my mom and she needed one. She didn’t take 3. She said I left one for someone who actually needs it.

Click to expand...

That's good to hear. I made a dollar store run (small town of 700ish, Dollar General is the only store actually in town) when the panic started. I picked up a little extra of a few things we already use (water, canned vegetables, TP) but nothing really crazy. I did go overboard on pasta admittedly, bought what most people would probably call a reasonable number of boxes but we are eating a keto diet so they are more backup than anything else and they won't be used unless we have to. Worst case scenario, we end up giving it away.

I picked up 2 twin packs of sanitizer wipes while I was there because I thought we were low and came home to find we already had 4 cans from when I bought some awhile back because I got cash back on them. We have a toddler we're potty training and a cat that likes to puke so we use them alot, but we don't need that many. I've already given one can away to a coworker, and offered that and TP to others if they need it. I think it's important to help out where we can.

Ignition Override said:

BigBL87: I prefer Golden Bullet or Automatch, but have plenty of Federal stored at home. Fed real is not so reliable in the new Ruger Mark IV or M&P....so...

An hour ago I almost entered my credit card number for three smallish bricks of Automatch...
..then I saw that “TN Sales Tax” had been added.

—No way!
I deleted the page. You guys can have all the .22 you want if you consider both Shipping And Sales Tax acceptable. If my local Academy raises prices much (nobody can forecast), I’ll simply wait as long as needed for the prices to return to normal.

Click to expand...

Ya, the Armscor I ordered was a little over what I like to pay for .223 but not much (I prefer to stay under 30 cents per shipping, these were 32.5). Ammofast didn't charge me tax though and their shipping was 9.95 flat rate, so it was pretty reasonable all said and done. I have to admit, though, if not for the current run I might have waited a few weeks.

My wife and I are losing weight and an ammo purchase is my next weight goal reward (2 lbs away, we do them every 10 lbs), so I just preempted it a little bit. She just did the same with a pair of shoes so I feel justified, haha.

I have enough ammo to supply my normal shooting activities (bullseye pistol, smallbore rifle, trap, some practice with carry pistols) for about a year. Well, I might be a little short on shotgun ammo. But it could get really interesting around the next election cycle. I would never recommend panic buying, but I would suggest a slow build of stock over the coming year. Buy a few extra (boxes, bricks, whatever) over time, and you'll be able to accumulate a stockpile without contributing to shortages.

Panic buying and hoarding are stupid behaviors to begin with, but the panic buying of antibacterial products during a pandemic has got to be one of the stupidest of all time. To slow the progression of the disease, you want everybody to be disinfecting their hands, not just you. If you went to Wal-Mart and got all 70 bottles of Purell that they had, that's 70 people that are potentially running around with COVID-19 on their hands, at least until they can get somewhere to wash it off. Hoarding wipes hurts everybody, yourself included.

Mmm. I'm not particularly concerned with meat. Whole woods filled with rabbit, squirrel, deer and various other beasties. Plenty of .22LR stocked back, very low on .243 Win.; but we don't shoot enough of it to bother actually keeping more than a box or two in stock. Plenty of 00 buckshot, plenty of skeet/field loads.

The best way to help ensure the supply chain functions is through storage.

When economy-wide demand shocks occur, the most effective response is for suppliers to pull from endless warehouses to provide as much product as anyone might want wherever they want it. Of course, this isn't going to happen in a modern economy.

Fortunately, the same principle applies for individuals. The most effective response to a demand shock is to go to the pantry, ammo locker, or TP cabinet and pull as much out as you might need to use. Or, if you're into that sort of thing, to fondle. People who are prepared don't have panic or fear.

In my case, I've been working on a batch of 15k rounds of 9mm. I finished the workup for a new bullet type yesterday. I have to say that my smile gets a little broader with every pull of the handle on my 650XL.

A little silver lining in my year long health issues. For the past year I haven’t been able to do much. Mostly nothing. But...I have been watching my email, sales, clearances, Black Friday, and all that. When the price was too good to pass up I ordered it. Sometimes in quantity. When it comes to Ammo “I’m good”.

May even have a few things for sale (no gouging) later on.

Mr. Mosin said:

Mmm. I'm not particularly concerned with meat. Whole woods filled with rabbit, squirrel, deer and various other beasties.

Click to expand...

So, I wanted to take a moment to reply to this, because I used to think the same way. It's certainly very romantic and manly and harkens back to Jeremiah Johnson etc., etc., etc. However, let us take an historical look at this idea for a moment using the pre-contact (before the arrival of Europeans) history of Native Alaskan groups as a case study.

At the time of arrival of the first Europeans in Alaska, ca 1750 AD, native peoples in Alaska were living an entirely subsistence lifestyle with hunting at the center of food production for most groups. Most groups lived in communities of 50-150 people. A community of 300 would have been a thriving metropolis. Groups lived hundreds of miles away from each other, but traveled in seasonal patterns to engage in trade. Now here is where I get to my point. These small bands of hunter gatherers each had a territory that, in many cases were similar in size to our smaller New England states, and yet, hunger and starvation were not uncommon.

Now think about your specific locale and the hunting regulations and game management strategies in your area. What would happen to game populations in your area if everyone (heck if only half of everyone) started hunting solely for food and solely out of desperation? (Because you know that no one is going to abide by hunting restrictions or respect private property in this scenario.)

I can tell you that, in my area, every moose within 100 miles of where I now sit would be dead within 1-2 weeks. The vast majority of those will be cows (females). If you're a hunter, I don't have to tell you what the result would be. For those who may not be hunters: it would result in a collapse of the herd, a massive population decline from which recovery would not be possible. At least not in our lifetimes and only with intensive management and government protection. We need only look to the buffalo of the Great Plains for a real life example.

So this notion that we're all going to hunt and live off the land, while rich with romanticism, is neither possible nor sustainable. I wish it were, but there are farrrrrrr to many people in the U.S. for this to be viable.

I apologize to the group for the lengthy post.

D.B. Cooper said:

So, I wanted to take a moment to reply to this, because I used to think the same way. It's certainly very romantic and manly and harkens back to Jeremiah Johnson etc., etc., etc. However, let us take an historical look at this idea for a moment using the pre-contact (before the arrival of Europeans) history of Native Alaskan groups as a case study.

At the time of arrival of the first Europeans in Alaska, ca 1750 AD, native peoples in Alaska were living an entirely subsistence lifestyle with hunting at the center of food production for most groups. Most groups lived in communities of 50-150 people. A community of 300 would have been a thriving metropolis. Groups lived hundreds of miles away from each other, but traveled in seasonal patterns to engage in trade. Now here is where I get to my point. These small bands of hunter gatherers each had a territory that, in many cases were similar in size to our smaller New England states, and yet, hunger and starvation were not uncommon.

Now think about your specific locale and the hunting regulations and game management strategies in your area. What would happen to game populations in your area if everyone (heck if only half of everyone) started hunting solely for food and solely out of desperation? (Because you know that no one is going to abide by hunting restrictions or respect private property in this scenario.)

I can tell you that, in my area, every moose within 100 miles of where I now sit would be dead within 1-2 weeks. The vast majority of those will be cows (females). If you're a hunter, I don't have to tell you what the result would be. For those who may not be hunters: it would result in a collapse of the herd, a massive population decline from which recovery would not be possible. At least not in our lifetimes and only with intensive management and government protection. We need only look to the buffalo of the Great Plains for a real life example.

So this notion that we're all going to hunt and live off the land, while rich with romanticism, is neither possible nor sustainable. I wish it were, but there are farrrrrrr to many people in the U.S. for this to be viable.

I apologize to the group for the lengthy post.

Click to expand...

I've actually put thought to that. Why not *catch* rabbits ? Raise em for meat. Fur, etc. Make it sustainable. And have enough vegetables and such to avoid protein poisoning.

D.B. Cooper said:

So, I wanted to take a moment to reply to this, because I used to think the same way. It's certainly very romantic and manly and harkens back to Jeremiah Johnson etc., etc., etc. However, let us take an historical look at this idea for a moment using the pre-contact (before the arrival of Europeans) history of Native Alaskan groups as a case study.

At the time of arrival of the first Europeans in Alaska, ca 1750 AD, native peoples in Alaska were living an entirely subsistence lifestyle with hunting at the center of food production for most groups. Most groups lived in communities of 50-150 people. A community of 300 would have been a thriving metropolis. Groups lived hundreds of miles away from each other, but traveled in seasonal patterns to engage in trade. Now here is where I get to my point. These small bands of hunter gatherers each had a territory that, in many cases were similar in size to our smaller New England states, and yet, hunger and starvation were not uncommon.

Now think about your specific locale and the hunting regulations and game management strategies in your area. What would happen to game populations in your area if everyone (heck if only half of everyone) started hunting solely for food and solely out of desperation? (Because you know that no one is going to abide by hunting restrictions or respect private property in this scenario.)

I can tell you that, in my area, every moose within 100 miles of where I now sit would be dead within 1-2 weeks. The vast majority of those will be cows (females). If you're a hunter, I don't have to tell you what the result would be. For those who may not be hunters: it would result in a collapse of the herd, a massive population decline from which recovery would not be possible. At least not in our lifetimes and only with intensive management and government protection. We need only look to the buffalo of the Great Plains for a real life example.

So this notion that we're all going to hunt and live off the land, while rich with romanticism, is neither possible nor sustainable. I wish it were, but there are farrrrrrr to many people in the U.S. for this to be viable.

I apologize to the group for the lengthy post.

Click to expand...

Exact points I made some years ago when talking to people who said there were plenty of deer to survive on. I believe the person was in Iowa, and I ran the numbers and the deer population would be wiped out in less than a month if you tried to supply the population, IIRC. Let me check the math again...

There is about 500,000 deer in Iowa. There are 3.15 million people. Each deer yields about 60 lbs of meat, so roughly 3 million pounds of deer meat to feed just over 3 million people. Each person in Iowa would get just under 1 pound of meat. How long will that last? 2 days?

Several know I know survived four years of college on a diet of hard boiled eggs, draft beer, peanut butter and Doritos.
Let's make this happen!

All of this talk of deer populations, and here in Illinois there's a good chance even from a well managed population deer will be unusable due to blue tongue or CWD. Also heard tuberculosis is making a comeback in deer, though that was farther east I believe, don't think it's made it here quite yet.