Al Qaeda May Have Nukes

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Report: Al Qaeda Has Nukes
Sunday, March 21, 2004

SYDNEY, Australia — Usama bin Laden's (search) terror network claims to have bought ready-made nuclear weapons on the black market in central Asia, the biographer of Al Qaeda's No. 2 leader was quoted as telling an Australian television station.


In an interview scheduled to be televised on Monday, Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir said Ayman al-Zawahiri (search) claimed that "smart briefcase bombs" were available on the black market.

It was not clear when the interview between Mir and al-Zawahiri took place.

U.S. intelligence agencies have long believed that Al Qaeda (search) attempted to acquire a nuclear device on the black market, but say there is no evidence it was successful.

In the interview with Australian Broadcasting Corp. television, parts of which were released Sunday, Mir recalled telling al-Zawahiri it was difficult to believe that Al Qaeda had nuclear weapons when the terror network didn't have the equipment to maintain or use them.

"Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri laughed and he said 'Mr. Mir, if you have $30 million, go to the black market in central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet scientist, and a lot of ... smart briefcase bombs are available,'" Mir said in the interview.

"They have contacted us, we sent our people to Moscow, to Tashkent, to other central Asian states and they negotiated, and we purchased some suitcase bombs," Mir quoted al-Zawahiri as saying.

Al-Qaeda has never hidden its interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.

The U.S. federal indictment of bin Laden charges that as far back as 1992 he "and others known and unknown, made efforts to obtain the components of nuclear weapons."

Bin Laden, in a November 2001 interview with a Pakistani journalist, boasted having hidden such components "as a deterrent." And in 1998, a Russian nuclear weapons design expert was investigated for allegedly working with bin Laden's Taliban allies.

It was revealed last month that Pakistan's top nuclear scientist had sold sensitive equipment and nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, fueling fears the information could have also fallen into the hands of terrorists.

Earlier, Mir told Australian media that al-Zawahiri also claimed to have visited Australia to recruit militants and collect funds.

"In those days, in early 1996, he was on a mission to organize his network all over the world," Mir was quoted as saying. "He told me he stopped for a while in Darwin, he was ... looking for help and collecting funds."

Australia's Attorney-General Philip Ruddock said the government could not rule out the possibility that al-Zawahiri visited Australia in the 1990s under a different name.

"Under his own name or any known alias he hasn't traveled to Australia," Ruddock told reporters Saturday. "That doesn't mean to say that he may not have come under some other false documentation, or some other alias that's not known to us."

Mir describe al-Zawahiri as "the real brain behind Usama bin Laden."

"He is the real strategist, Usama bin Laden is only a front man," Mir was quoted as saying during the interview. "I think he is more dangerous than bin Laden."

Al-Zawahiri — an Egyptian surgeon — is believed to be hiding in the rugged region around the Pakistan-Afghan border where U.S. and Pakistani troops are conducting a major operation against Taliban and Al Qaeda forces.

He is said to have played a leading role in orchestrating the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

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:scrutiny: Could be (more) chest thumping but combined with the Yellow Spaniard incident, I wonder whether or not UBL should run with sKerry :neener:
 
Chest thumping. As has already been said we will probably find out. If they want to see one hundred thousand or more die just pop one.
 
As has been said - if they had more than one they would have used one already. If they have only one it's possible they'd save it for a very special occasion. Every month that passes makes it seem less likely, as the suitcase bombs have to be maintained just like any other nuke (maybe more so as getting small masses of Pu to go bam requires more refined design and precise explosives timing) and without maintenence and fresh parts they're not going to function well or possibly at all at some point.
 
Your Tax Dollars at Work

If these things were ever available on the black market it would have been sheer stupidity for the CIA not to have bought every one they could find and to pass the word through the KGB that anybody selling them to anyone else would be hunted down, along with every member of their families, and staked on an anthill.

Ya think they had the stones for it?:evil:
 
If they had them, they would use them...

Yeah, if they had the arming codes.

This is not exactly new information. It's been floating around since about 1998. Evidently, they bought half a dozen man-pacs but don't have the codes to arm them. They are supposed to have hired a bunch of ex-KGB technical types to work on bypassing the codes and going for a direct trigger.

It's all rumor for now but you discount this at your own risk. Especially if you live near the Houston ship channel.
 
National Terror Alert : Terrorism Survival Guide

Suitcase Nukes

A "suitcase" bomb is a very compact and portable nuclear weapon and could have the dimensions of 60 x 40 x 20 centimeters or 24 x 16 x 8 inches. The smallest possible bomb-like object would be a single critical mass of plutonium (or U-233) at maximum density under normal conditions. The Pu-239 weighs 10.5 kg and is 10.1 cm across. It doesn't take much more than a single critical mass to cause significant explosions ranging from 10-20 tons. These types of weapons can also be as big as two footlockers. The warhead consists of a tube with two pieces of uranium, which, when rammed together, would cause a blast. Some sort of firing unit and a device that would need to be decoded to cause detonation may be included in the "suitcase."

Another portable weapon is a "backpack" bomb. The Soviet nuclear backpack system was made in the 1960s for use against NATO targets in time of war and consists of three "coffee can-sized" aluminum canisters in a bag. All three must be connected to make a single unit in order to explode. The detonator is about 6 inches long. It has a 3-to-5 kiloton yield, depending on the efficiency of the explosion. It's kept powered during storage by a battery line connected to the canisters.

Effects

External radiation — occurs when either part of or all of the body is exposed from an external source, such as when a person is standing near the site of where a radiological device is set off and he or she is exposed to radiation, which can be absorbed by the body or can pass completely through it.

Contamination — occurs when radioactive materials in the form of solids, liquids or gases are released into the air and contaminate people externally, internally or both. This happens when body parts such as the skin become contaminated and/or if the harmful material gets inside the body via the lungs, gut or wounds.

Incorporation of radioactive material — occurs when body cells, tissues and organs such as bone, liver, thyroid or kidney, are contaminated.

Gamma radiation can travel many meters in the air and many centimeters once in human tissue; therefore they represent a major external threat. Dense material is needed as a shield. Beta radiation can travel meters in air and can moderately penetrate human skin, but clothing and some protection can help. Alpha radiation travels a very short distance through the air and can't penetrate the skin, but can be harmful if inhaled, swallowed or absorbed through open wounds.

Radiation in the first hour after an explosion is about 90 percent, with it going down to about 1 percent of the original level after two days. Radiation only drops to trace levels after 300 hours.

Symptoms

People in the immediate vicinity would likely die from the force of the conventional explosion itself. Some survivors of the blast might die of radiation poisoning in the weeks afterward. Those farther away from the explosion might suffer radiation sickness in the days and weeks afterward, but recover. Over time, risks of cancer in the affected area would rise, but perhaps only slightly.

A mix of physical symptoms must be used to judge the seriousness of exposure. Impact of radiation poisoning also changes if the body has experienced burns or physical trauma. In the case of treatable victims, extensive medical treatment may be needed for more than two months after exposure.

Some symptoms may include vomiting, headache, fatigue, weakness, diarrhea, thermal burn-like skin effects, secondary infections, reoccurring bleeding and hair loss.

Treatment

If detection and decontamination occurs soon after exposure, about 95 percent of external radioactive material can be removed by taking off the victim's clothing and shoes and washing with water. Further decontamination may require the use of bleaches or other mild abrasives.

Treatment of a victim within the first six weeks to two months after exposure is vital and is determined by what types of radioactive isotopes to which the victim was exposed.

Medical personnel will treat victims for hemorrhage and shock. Open wounds are usually irrigated to cleanse them of any radioactive traces. Amputation of limbs may occur if a wound is highly contaminated and functional recovery isn't likely.

If radioactive material is ingested, treatment is given to reduce absorption and enhance excretion and elimination. It includes stomach pumping or giving the victim laxatives or aluminum antacids, among other things.

If radioactive material has gotten into a victim's internal organs and tissues, treatment includes giving the patient various blocking and diluting agents, such as potassium iodide, to decrease absorption. Mobilizing agents such as ammonium chloride, diuretics, expectorants and inhalants are given to a patient to force the tissues to release the harmful isotopes. Other treatments involve chelating agents. When ingested, these agents bind with some metals more strongly than others to form a stable complex that, when soluble, are more easily excreted through the kidneys.
 
How powerful are they?

Their power is about one kiloton, possibly less, but a powerful charge. You cannot destroy Moscow or London, but the Kremlin, you can destroy ... Capitol Hill can be wiped out by such a bomb.

Figure death and destruction for a 5 mile radius. Fallout depends on weather, dust or rainfall and wind.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/suitcase/comments.html
President Yeltsin's former Science Advisor, Alexei Yablokov, testified to the American Congress ... and we all know how reliabe PBS is... most of the time.
 
I also doubt the validity of this claim, but let's play make-believe for a moment here:

Suppose al q did have one or two of these and they detonated one in NY or SF, or some other large American target.

What would we do?
 
I would suggest that lack of use to date cannot be taken as evidence of lack of access. The same lack of use to date can attributed to careful planning to ensure timing and placement that will cause maximum economic and political disruption to the country, which, in light of 9/11 and the recent Spanish incident cannot be ruled out.

Since we are talking scary possibilities, here's another fun scenario: China's extensive fleet of containerships, which daily visit US ports carry nukes (not the "puny" suitcase versions) which are detonated all at the same time. More or less likely than the terrorist nuke scenario?
 
...detonated one in NY or SF... what would we do?
Wall Street collapse? Economy in turmoil? Radiation Poisoning? Dead in the millions?
No real target to launch against, right? Can't counteract against a mountain range in Southwest Asia or oil fields in the Middle East.
Gov't clamps down on nation as citizens run amuck... martial law? FEMA and Homeland Defense Department in charge... Nation set up in the 7 regions
Hmmmm, sounds like a novel plot.
You left out DC in the targeting. Which would cause a re-build of our gov't. Time to read some more Clancy fancy.
I dare say, the world as we know it would be forever altered. France would probably say that they're in charge now while China and Russia decide who really owns Siberia. Cheering in the streets of Palestine and Yemen.
Horrible to think about, fun to speculate in a black humor sorta way. (How much ammo do I have in stock?)
 
A tiny nuke like that would have to be properly maintained. Unlikely. But since all of the Al Qaida troops are willing martyrs anyway, if they were to get their hands on that much plutonium, a dirty bomb is much more likely. If you aren't worried about radiation poisoning, grinding down Pu to powder, so it carries on the wind, is easy. A 2 kiloton blast is, what, a city block? But 11 Kilos of radioactive, cancer-causing dust, spread upon the winds of NY, DC, LA, will necessitate the evacuation of the entire region, and induce mass panic. And fear is what all terrorists are after.

Scared now?
 
From what I've read over the years, any Islamic terrorists trying to detonate a suit case nuke would need assistance from Spetsnaz types (and therefore cooperation from the Kremlin).
 
From what I've read over the years, any Islamic terrorists trying to detonate a suit case nuke would need assistance from Spetsnaz types (and therefore cooperation from the Kremlin).

How so?

Key codes and the like?
 
I doubt they have any of the things.
I hope I'm right but if I'm not I would hate to be living in ANY Arab country if the BGs actually blow one or two of those over here in the US.

For all the issues that are going on between Israel and the Pals the worst thing the PA terrorists could do is blow up part of Isreal with a nuke.

We are talking end game for the Pals the day that happens.

If Ben L. and Company ever deploys a nuke here you can bet there will be heck to pay someplace in the ME. If I was an Arab I'd be very worried my rat hole country might be a target.

Say like Iran.

IMHO

S-
 
I tend to agree with the comments of Selfdfenz.

The American populus did not say much negative about our actions in Afghanistan immediately after the 9/11 attacks. Even the liberal flanks the public were solidly behind the concept finding those responsible and bringing them to justice--one way or another.

The 9/11 attacks killed 3000 Americans. A low yield nuke would kill at least 100 times that many.

What do you think the public response would be to a 100 fold increase in dead? I don't think it would be trivial.

The American people would want "blood", right or wrong, and the leadership would be compelled to respond accordingly.
 
If they had them, they would use them...
I think that reasoning is dangerously defective. If they were able to get one, the harder part would be to get it into the US and in place for maximum effect. It's possible that is what they are doing now, and our security is at a very high level of alert. If it does enetr, it will be in a shipping container disguised as "farm equipment" or some such thing. Personally, I think they may not have one now, but they will eventually. With unlimited money flow from their banker (Saudi Arabia) it's only a matter of time before they get one.
 
"I think that reasoning is dangerously defective. If they were able to get one, the harder part would be to get it into the US and in place for maximum effect. "
I agree if half of that.
Getting one in will be no problem if you read the posts by many here on THR regarding our non-borders.
Canada, Mexico..take you pick.

S-
 
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