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Stratfor is an interesting company. George Friedman spends a fair amount of his time wrong when it comes to predicting things, so I don't tend to trust their judgments of what will happen next. But they do good analytical work on things that are in progress and they're good at avoiding...

Staying out of places where you shouldn't be is a good start. But you have to know what those places are to avoid them, and how to recognize when you've maybe stumbled into a place where you shouldn't be. And you can absolutely get into a place where you shouldn't be by accident; I've done it...