Are We at War or Peace?

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FRIZ

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National Review
September 5, 2003

Are We at War or Peace?
by Victor Davis Hanson

Judging the reconstruction in Iraq.

http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson090503.asp

If we are still in a state of war after the attack on 9/11/01, then the past two years have proven remarkable in our efforts to put al Qaeda on the run, avoid another disaster on the scale of the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, and rid the world of the Taliban and Hussein tyrannies.

But if we feel the fighting is, or should be, over and we have arrived at peace, then the loss each week of Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq appears intolerable. That crude dichotomy of perception sums up the current conundrum over the daily news from Baghdad: encouraging amid a long and continuing war, but depressing and abnormal in a time of peace.

On one side is a large minority who (albeit privately) say that 9/11 was largely a criminal matter. The proper response, in this view, should have been to hunt down those individuals (not states) who helped the terrorists and let the criminal-justice system deal with the guilty — the policy, in other words, of the Clinton administration that more or less did not equate a series of terrorist murdering with an all-out war against the United States.

In this way of thinking, Afghanistan and Iraq especially were both impulsive overreactions, costing too many American lives and polarizing the Islamic world needlessly, since the agents of our destruction were individuals who were not representatives of any real Middle Eastern ideology at large. The more-extreme critics of this war would further add that rather than envisioning a conflict between civilization and fundamentalist and autocratic Middle East barbarism, we should look inward — asking ourselves why the bin Ladens and Saddam Husseins of the world hate us so. Their obvious solution to preclude the anger of the "oppressed" would then be to learn to be more sensitive to the feelings of others and to listen rather than shoot.

Who are such present critics? Mostly utopians, pacifists, socialists, internationalists, many journalists, academics, and general leftists of the Democratic party, who in the aggregate perhaps consist of about 20 percent of the American public. Some are driven by genuine principles of nonintervention, others by a visceral hatred of George Bush and corporate America; many are deluded by the nostalgic nonsense that in their golden years we all may be entering another 1960s-style period of protest — when in their youth they once cut their teeth marching, singing, and generally unleashing bombast about the pathologies of their own culture. The latter remind me of Kadmos and Teiresias in Euripides's Bacchai-stooped over and arthritic, eager to romp on Mt. Kithairon with the Bacchants, chomping at the bit to recapture their youth and ingratiate themselves with a new contrarian movement.

In contrast, supporters of the response after 9/11 in both Afghanistan and Iraq see our efforts as long overdue. Military operations are indeed eleventh-hour, even desperate correctives for a dangerous decade of appeasement, one that emboldened terrorists and rogue states that both in complementary ways sought to harm the United States. In this school — mostly those in the military, conservatives, and members of the present administration — we are in a real war consisting of various theaters against several belligerents, all united by their terrorist methods, shared hatred of the West, and desire to trump the killing of September 11 and thus eventually to emasculate the United States.

Consequently, claiming that Saddam Hussein did not like bin Laden or vice versa is about as useful as proving that Tojo's Japanese militarism was not akin to Hitler's Nazism, on the grounds that their ideologies were different and their anti-American strategies uncoordinated. True perhaps — but again a meaningless distinction given the realities of World War II. In this regard, I would imagine that about 50-55 percent of the public agrees with the administration and supports the need to press on with the war and the rebuilding of Iraq.

In between these two determined groups are, I suppose, millions of other quieter Americans who are not quite sure what we are doing at the moment — perhaps a quarter of our population that is always open to the arguments of either side and calibrates its feelings by the news of any given day. These moderates and more wary supported the operations in Afghanistan and even Iraq in overwhelming numbers, and their gut instincts were redeemed by the rapid military victories in both theaters.

But the dozens of American dead in the postbellum clean-up, along with horrific murdering of foreign-aid workers, the blowing up of the U.N., and tribal and sectarian fighting in Afghanistan and the Sunni Triangle, raise doubts among them as to why we are spending so much money, and yet losing Americans each week to help the likes of such people. Would it not just be better to declare victory and go home? In a depressed economy could we not better spend the money here in the United States? Is not the U.N.'s job to get involved? Can we not go back to police actions against al Qaeda that are quiet, cheap, and not so bothersome on the evening news?

The events on the battlefield will prove one of the two sides right, and thus bring along with it the undecided and fickle. The latter must be convinced each step of the way that fighting is for the long-term and, tragically so, the safer course of action for the security of themselves and their families. But because we are in a multifaceted war waged over years rather than months, and one broadcast daily and interpreted hourly by those with little knowledge and less objectivity, the administration is forced constantly to remind the public of the vast stakes involved, the enormous success already achieved, and the general-but-difficult goals ahead. To the extent that it tires or relents — for a month, a week, perhaps even a day — the media, the universities, presidential contenders, and a cultural elite will not, and thus will seek to equate the costs and setbacks that are the perennial stuff of war with defeat itself.

To summarize, we are in a war with the latest face of an age-old enemy of civilization who hates the freedom of the individual, tolerance of diverse thoughts and practices, human rights, democracy, and modernism itself. Just as Stalinism, Nazism, fascism, and militarism hijacked the good peoples of Russia, Germany, Italy, and Japan, so too radical Islamic fundamentalism, working hand-in-glove with Middle East tyrannies, turns frustrations over indigenous failures into hatred of a prosperous and successful United States. And like past challenges to civilization, such barbarism thrives on Western appeasement and considers enlightened deference as weakness, if not decadence. Thus enemies like al Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Baathists can only be militarily defeated, and the victims of their nihilism aided and abetted by our own efforts at reconstruction and forgiveness — but in that order only.

Just as in World War II the lull between the storms of Iwo Jima and Okinawa or the false calm between conquest of Sicily and the invasion of Italy was not peace, so too after September 11 we are in a real war that will ebb and flow as our enemies regroup and retreat. The key instead is to ignore the daily hype of the media, and keep focused on the larger picture: Which side is in the improved situation? What resources are available to the respective belligerents? What are the costs that each side has endured? By any fair token, the losses after 9/11 have been nearly all our enemies — human, material, and psychological — from bases in Afghanistan to entire nations. Yet such is the extent of our power that al Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Baathists alike sorely feel that they are losing a war, while Americans attuned to the new fall season sitcoms are breezily oblivious that they are winning it.

After Afghanistan and Iraq, we are no longer at the beginning of the struggle, but not near the end either. Rather we are in a difficult middle, in an election year with a restless public that has been so nursed on such rapid, easy victories that even relative successful efforts look feeble in comparison to past miracles. It is not an easy thing, after all, to restore sanity after decades of fascism in the heart of the Arab world, amid enemies like Syria and Iran, and friends such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

There are also a number of real problems on the horizon, to which no one in Washington has quite figured out the answer. We know the Iranian government is behind much of the killing and seeks desperately deterrent nuclear weapons to preclude an accounting; but how we can confront the mullahs militarily, when a grassroots movement may do it for us, and we are still in a period of hot reconstruction in Iraq?

We know that Syria and Lebanon are embryos of terror, and have the blood of Americans on their hands, but do we risk confronting them with the Israeli-Palestinian problem still unsettled?

We know that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan — or at least numerous rogue elements within their governments — have helped those who killed Americans, but do we risk losing their feeble overt support as the price of curtailing their muscular covert aid to our enemies?

And in the midst of all this complexity, how can we redirect our troops abroad — whose present nonsensical basing is a relic from the Cold War — to where they are needed without creating instability and distrust among both complacent allies and jumpy enemies?

Finally, in such a postmodern war without clearly defined borders or fronts, the American people must habitually be reminded of our ultimate aims. Militarily we must reestablish both the ability and willingness to punish immediately any cadre or state that kills or plans to kill Americans. Politically we seek, both by arms and diplomacy, to end the present pathology in the Middle East where autocratic governments create venomous hatred toward the United States among their starving and frenzied to deflect their own catastrophic failures onto us. Morally we are trying to convey the message that the United States is a proven and reliable friend of international commerce, a guarantor of freedom of the seas and skies, a protector of nations that support consensual government and human rights — and a terrible and totally unpredictable enemy of any one or state that seeks to kill Americans or their friends or to threaten the norms of civilization itself.

So if we keep all that in mind — the sheer extent of our dire challenges and the successes of our first two years — then we are doing very well in Iraq at the very nexus of this global war. But if the war either does not exist, or is already over, or has been lost, then Howard Dean & Co. are quite right to wonder what in the world George Bush is doing to disrupt their accustomed entitlement of peace and tranquility.
 
a riposte from the Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1034603,00.html

The warning was plain. Iraq was a breeding ground of terror, an incubator for al-Qaida and a clear and present danger to "the civilised world". Tony Blair was wary of that argument, but George Bush made it the heart of his case. At his eve-of-war press conference back in March, the president cast the coming attack as the next step in a story that had begun on September 11 2001. Iraq was providing "training and safe haven to terrorists, terrorists who would willingly use weapons of mass destruction against America and other peace-loving countries". The irony is that, at the time, this was not true. But it is now.
With astonishing speed, the United States and Britain are making their nightmares come true. Iraq is fast becoming the land that they warned about: a throbbing hub of terror. Islamists bent on murder, all but non-existent in Saddam's Iraq, are now flocking to the country, from Syria, Iran and across the Arab world. In the way that hippies used to head for San Francisco, jihadists are surging towards Baghdad. For those eager to strike at the US infidel, Iraq is the place to be: a shooting gallery, with Americans in easy firing range. Afghanistan is perilous terrain, but Iraq is open country. For the Islamist hungry for action, there are rich pickings.

Bush insisted that Saddam's Iraq was packed with these people, ready to be deployed at a moment's notice. Proof was always thin, thinner even than the evidence of weapons of mass destruction - which is why Blair, to his credit, never mentioned it. But never mind; events have taken care of that little lacuna in the US argument. Iraq may not have been a terrorists' paradise at the start of the year - a retirement home for a few has-beens, perhaps - but it is now. Operation Iraqi Freedom blew off the gates, and Islam's holy warriors have rushed in. Like the blind protagonist of a Greek drama, Bush, in seeking to avert a prophecy, has ended up fulfilling it.

Confirmation comes in the daily drip-drip-drip of the death toll, with one or two Americans (and now Britons) dying every 24 hours. It is a wonder the figure is not higher, with coalition forces now facing up to 20 attacks a day. There were more deaths yesterday, along with a car bomb at the Baghdad police academy.

Not that the victims have been chiefly Americans. Instead, the biggest strikes have been against those seen to be their partners: the Jordanian embassy, the United Nations and, in Najaf last week, Iraq's most powerful Shia leader. That bomb served as a warning to all Iraqis not to get too cosy with the country's new rulers - if the US cannot protect a first-rank, sympathetic cleric, how safe is everyone else?

The result is that no one wants to stand too close to the occupiers. One member of the new governing council resigned at the weekend; another warned the US viceroy, Paul Bremer, that the council "could become a morgue" if the Americans did not do more to protect its members. Others are taking the law into their own hands, hiring private bodyguards. Shias, angry at their vulnerability at Najaf, are taking similar steps, looking to groups such as the Badr Brigades to provide security. This takes Iraq one step closer to a Somalia or Afghanistan scenario: a lawless, failed state, where the only authority is the local warlord. With a murder rate approaching 5,000 a year, that kind of anarchy is not far off. Make no mistake, Saddam's Iraq was an evil tyranny. But it was not a failed state, the ideal climate for nurturing terror. With power and water still not working, thanks to constant sabotage, and thieves stripping vital cables for their copper, it could be soon.

Why is the occupation going so badly wrong? Hubris and incompetence played their part. The Pentagon's civilian planners put plenty of thought into the war, but almost none into the peace. They had a hyperpower's supreme confidence in their own abilities.

But ideology is surely the chief culprit. Republicans can barely spit the words "nation building", so it was a task they preferred not to think about. The Pentagon suits, led by Donald Rumsfeld, are hardcore unilateralists, determined to run the show alone, unencumbered by allies. They were also desperate to prove that new, 21st-century, pre-emptive wars could be light, nimble affairs conducted with minimal personnel and low budgets. From the outset, this wing of the administration has been determined to run Iraq on the cheap. Even now, they have not 'fessed up about the tens of billions of dollars that Bremer admits will be needed to rebuild a shattered country.

Instead, Team Bush seems to be paralysed, uncertain what to do with an Iraq adventure that refuses to follow the action-movie script they had written for it. By now they were expecting the credits to roll, with cheers for the US performance. What they have got is a situation trickier than any the US military has faced since Vietnam.

Only the most fervent anti-war voices are calling for a complete and immediate withdrawal; such a sudden vacuum would surely guarantee anarchy. On the contrary, providing basic security and services to Iraq will probably take many more, not fewer, people. There are now 140,000 American troops in the country; those who know say that it will take a force of 500,000.

The extra men cannot come from the US. American public opinion would hear too many echoes of LBJ's Vietnam escalation. Besides, the US military is already overstretched; short of reviving the draft, it just doesn't have the troops (and conscription is not much of a policy for an election year.) Above all, more Americans in Iraq just means more targets for the jihadists to aim at.

Some in the American press have wondered about Iraqification - training the Iraqis to look after their own, starting with the military now twiddling their thumbs. But that would mean reinstalling a whole lot of Ba'athists: not much of a regime change.

The only solution is, surely, allies. When you look at the zero-casualty rate the genuine coalition governing the Balkans has sustained, this sounds a smart idea. But it, too, is fraught with problems. It will be hard to win over the likes of France and Germany without offering them a degree of political control over the country; Bremer would have to share power. That would be a huge loss of face for the Washington hardliners for whom the UN is an expletive. Besides, how many nations will be eager to expose their young men to harm, now that they know a UN flag attracts rather than deters terrorists?

None of these problems is a surprise. An enterprise that was misconceived from the beginning was hardly going to reach a smooth end. Now that it has started, it has to be run differently - with more money, more personnel, more allies and a timetable for free elections. To get all that may require one more thing, which only the American people can provide, 14 months from now: new leadership.
 
It's safest to assume that we are always in a state of war (since the dawn of mankind), with brief interludes of quiet while everyone reloads.....at least history would lead one to believe this to be the case.:confused:
 
Someone here has a signature line from Robert A. Heinlein that says (pardon any errors here) "You can have Peace, or you can have Freedom. Rarely can you have both" or words to that effect.

I've always liked the line, "Yeah, tho I walk thru the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for I am the ..." well, you know the rest of that line, right?

When you're up to your (ahem) butt (don't want to alarm any impressionable youts reading herein) in alligators, its hard to remember that your main objective was to drain the swamp.

Is that what these guys mean? Or do they mean to say that President Bush/Prime Minister Blair jumped into the honeybees nest and took the fight to them and that this is a bad thing? Some of the honeybees are loose and buzzing about and yes some of the stings hurt... in fact they kill once in a while. Other killer bees from nearby hives buzzing in for a chance at the big bad satanic bull. (doncha love mixing metaphors?) No swarms yet...

Target rich environment for both sides.

Some argue that the coalition forces planning and execution was too sanitized, that UK/US plan of action has been too soft. I'd opine that these islamic jihadists haven't even begun to feel the wrath that these two nations can deliver when their knickers are really in a twist (look up photo's of Tokyo, Berlin, etc circa April '45 or thereabouts). What was Pearl Harbor's casualty toll? WTC?

Other's shriek at the thought of a Republican administration doing anything... or nothing...

War IS hell and the islamic jihadist/totalitarian types might have picked the wrong dog with which to tangle.

Some blather on about the immediate lack of WMD... lies all lies from the lips of GWB/TB (so says my mom anyway).

Maybe they are correct.

Appropros of nothing specific, didn't someone post here about recent finds of German WWII weapons (aircraft and armor was it?) beneath the Berlin airport that have been sitting safely in bunkers for 50+ years?

Can't attack the Saudi's, they are our friends... read oil supply...Venezuela on strike, Iraq out of action, can't touch Canada/Alaska fields, Russia is behind the power curve, etc. and to bring the fight into the sand dunes of Arabia, the home of Islam (Mecca , Medina) "wouldn't be prudent at this juncture", now would it? It'd be the epitomy of ZOG in action. Once Iraq's oil fields are operational however... some leverage could be applied to Kingdom in question... should that become necessary.

People all over the world understand power when it's applied to them in force. They don't like it, but they understand it.

The trick being to know when, how much and when to back off with skill, grace and elan. America and Britian like the unconditional surrender approach. May not work here, hmmmmm?

I don't know that forced capitalism is a good thing.

I do know that forced Islamic beliefs (or any other for that matter) and theocracy is Not a good thing... for me. (But I don't really know as I've not yet been forced to capitulate to that, yet. Still trying to hold onto the RKBA)

Howaboutyou?

Still and all the swamp is slowly draining, alligators are everywhere... Honeybee's hive is kinda torn up, lots of single killer bees buzzing about...

Like I said before, Target rich environment for both sides. Here, there, everywhere.

May you live in Interesting Times. I'd say this qualifies.

Adios
 
Who are such present critics? Mostly utopians, pacifists, socialists, internationalists, many journalists, academics, and general leftists of the Democratic party, who in the aggregate perhaps consist of about 20 percent of the American public.

I doubt it's anywhere near that great a percentage. It's a very loud percentage, but I believe it's a small percentage.
 
I think a lot of people feel more justified in their existence somehow if there is a great moral war against something. We are always at war arainst something: poverty, drugs, crime, now terrorism. It might feel better to use metaphors like that, and might make some people think they're doing something about one of out more intractible problems, but it doesn't really help anything, and often makes it worse.

Recent history being a case in point.

BTW, his percentages might have had some bearing on reality about 6 months ago, but wars of empire tend to go sour with our people pretty fast. One of the most heartening thing for me about this whole thing is that we just don't make very good imperialists. I'm sure GWB and his henchmen hate that, but it's true.
 
I agree with Baba Louie....

"I do know that forced Islamic beliefs (or any other for that matter) and theocracy is Not a good thing... for me. (But I don't really know as I've not yet been forced to capitulate to that, yet. Still trying to hold onto the RKBA)"
************************************************************

Those 'target rich environments' will certainly work to our advantage.
Now if only those misguided folks who think this is somehow about 'imperialism' could stop yelling and observe the differences between a defensive response to a world-wide threat and true 'imperialism'.;)
 
Probably the biggest problem is that most people think in terms of a nation when the word "war" is used. In this case, we have a bunch of associated folks who are scattered across the world--and who are just really happy to do their "jihad", to die in that cause quite happily if they can take infidels along with them.

I always figured if somebody is out to kill me or mine, I'm really uninterested in the terminology. All anybody has to do is remember "World Trade Center" and note that the same aggregation of people are doing their best to accomplish other, similar deeds.

One thing to remember: It doesn't matter how rational you are about dealing with Islamic people, nor how reasonable are your thoughts. You're as good a target as any other non-Islamic. Left wing, right wing--doesn't matter: You're a target. The "Why?" of this jihad doesn't matter at all.

That's close enough to "war" to suit me.

Art
 
Until every terrorist in the world has given up or is dead, we are at war

One of the things I didn't like after 9/11 was when Pres. Bush called for a "War on Terrorism" and not a "War on Islamic Terrorism. ( And yes, I know the PC reasons he couldn't do that.)

Callous as it may seem, we are not at war with all terrorism. IRA, FARC, Shining Path, Tamil Tigers, etc. though no friend of the US and may have/may still yet murder Americans, have not called for the overthrow of the American government and establishment of an Islamic state ruled by Sharia law.

I certainly would have no problem eliminating those groups, but let's face it that is not what the "War on Terrorism" is about.
 
At no time was "war" officialy declared because of 9/11.
The twin towers destruction was described as an act of war by some goverment officials but was quickly quelled by phone calls to the White House by numerous mortgage holders of the destroyed buildings.

You see insurance won't cover wars or act of wars. The mortgage holder of the twin towers stood to lose big time if the White House didn't bite their tongue.

The mortgage was bought a few months before on the towers and the CEO of the company insisted on terrorism insurance.

Because of the enourmous dollar amount, many companies were inlisted to cover the amount. But as usual, lawyers for the different companies wanted to use their own agreements and finaly a short time before the destruction, a binder was signed. The policy hadn't been issued yet at the time of destruction.

Declaring war has its consequences in the business world that most don't see.
 
Oh, there's plenty of war to go around:

http://antiwar.com/ewens/casualties.html

The problem is that the people dying in Iraq didn't have any connection to Al-Quaeda. The US soldiers getting their legs blown off in Iraq are INCREASING the number of anti-American terrorists, not "draining the swamp" at all.

Something for them to contemplate in their wheelchairs, next to their fathers who tried to drain the swamps in Viet Nam.
 
Since the title of this thread asks " Are we at war or peace?", I'll seperate it into the two questions it asks.

The second question first: "Are we at peace?". Certainly not. One could make the argument that we've always been involved in one conflict or another, and that we've never achieved "peace". But, in the WOT, we're still very far from peace.

The first question: "Are we at war?". Of course we are. But one of the subtle changes I've noticed in our thinking is that it doesn't always matter if/when we decide we're at war. We now have to recognise when someone else states that they're at war with us. In this case, the Islamists have declared war on America and Americans everywhere. So we accept their challenge, and take the fight to them whereever we can find them. An interesting ancillary question would be "Are we in a religious war?". For this question too, I'd have to answer "Yes". I think most Americans want our government decisions to be based on exclusively secular thinking, but again, the Islamists have declared our existence a threat to their view of Islam, and have declared a "Jihad" against us. We're in a religious war, whether we like it or not.
 
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