Not much news on the presidential front today, but a lot of news on another, much less talked about front: the Senate. Five Democratic senators from the South are retiring at and end of this session of Congress: John Breaux (D-LA), John Edwards (D-NC), Bob Graham (D-FL), Fritz Hollings (D-SC), and Zell Miller (D-GA). Only three Republicans are retiring: Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO), Peter Fitzgerald (R-IL), and Don Nickles (R-OK). In addition to these eight open seats, one other seat is semi-open: Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is fighting to actually be elected to the Senate seat her dad the governor appointed her to.
Early in the year, the Republicans couldn't control their glee at the possibility of picking up as many as five Senate seats in the South, which has become increasingly Republican over the years. But a funny thing happened on the way to the election. The voters had different ideas. Not only are the Democrats holding four of the five seats in the South, but they are leading in all three formerly Republican seats. They are also leading in the only two really contested seats in which an incumbent might lose: Alaska and South Dakota.
If the Senate election were held today, the Democrats would take control of the Senate, 52-48 (counting independent Sen. Jeffords as a Democrat, since he caucuses with the Democrats). And this realignment does not take into account the possibility that Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) might pull a Jeffords and jump ship. He is from a hugely Democratic state and, like Zell Miller, would be much more appreciated in the other party. The only reason Chafee hasn't switched is out of a sense of duty to his late father, John Chafee, who was a respected Republican senator from RI.
