Cheap surplus in near future?

[grampajack]

If we overturn the Obama era import restrictions on Russian ammo we would probably see 7.62r and 5.45 come back down. I don't see that happening though, as they seem to be doubling down on their anti-Russian policy. I think the days of milsurp are over. We may see some 1911s trickle into the CMP, but for the most part the anti gun policies of the federal government will probably ensure we never see another milsurp get into civilian hands.

 

[pm8675309]

Firearm sales were down 30% from Q4 2016 to Q1 2017. There is a glut of supply, so prices are dropping as a reaction. That's why you are seeing rebates on things like the M&P Shield. The top sellers would presumably have the most inventory, therefore the greatest surplus when demand dropped sharply. AR's will likely go back up in price when the inventory surplus sells through. I say just keep an eye out for these rebate deals as manufacturers look to move through aging inventory.

 

[Zoogster]

Is some surplus, but the best surplus is gone, sold to picky customers when the Soviet Union collapsed and they could choose which pallets of guns they wanted.
They were selling well built firearms designed to work in an army half a century ago with little maintenance for less than flimsy commercial firearms only made to last some deer seasons before needing serious gunsmithing in the United States.
Before that the stuff from WW2 and before.
But it was all bolt action and semi auto rifles, which are civilian legal.


The only way that would continue is if the civilian market could purchase select fire arms, or former select fire arms. Even when it was legal to sell the handguns in the 1990s the government chose to destroy many of the stockpiled 1911s rather than let them go to civilians or even risk them being sold to civilians later during another administration by continuing to stockpile them. The huge numbers of m14s destroyed got more notice, but they destroyed many of the stockpiled semi auto handguns too.
You have a Bill Clinton White House, and Assault Weapon Ban passing Congress, to thank for the climate that caused them to pressure not only that, but also for the ATF to issue the interpretation that 'once a machinegun always a machinegun' line people repeat since then. This supported what was being done to the m14 rifles by silencing cries of the destruction of one of our finest service rifles by civilians hoping to get them. The m1 Garand was the last time a citizen could easily purchase a former standard service rifle of any branch of its military. Of course anything still sold to the public could be purchased with NFA paperwork until 1968 for foreign things and 1986 for domestic.

The easiest way to change it would probably be to undo the ATF determination that once a machinegun always a machinegun. That is not in congressional law, it is an ATF ruling.
Then the fire control parts and other determined components could be swapped out and citizens could still get guns that governments no longer want.

With no change most of what has been being made since the 1950s will never be surplus.

 

[Ignition Override]

Peacebutready: no details were given by the Navy (possibly civilian) guy working at Crane, when he chatted with my former coworker.

So little seems to be known about small arms stored there--other than M-14s used by the Marine Rifle Team--that possibly the secrecy is a result of the existence of a huge amount of small arms?

Why would generic mortar shells, mortars, bazookas, even tanks need to be hidden away in crates etc which could resemble the last scene in "Raiders Of The Lost Ark"?

 

[peacebutready]

I would not be surprised if it turned out there are all kinds of surplus arms just waiting to be exported to the US if they could legally do so. The kicker is the "legally" part.

I can't imagine what the penalty is for getting caught with something not legally imported.

 

[peacebutready]

If we overturn the Obama era import restrictions on Russian ammo we would probably see 7.62r and 5.45 come back down.

I think some people think supplies went dry with 7.62R due to it either running out or military operations in Ukraine.

Isn't there a lot of 7.62X25 Tokarev ammo out there? I think it is not importable due to it being Chinese and/or armor piercing.

 

[peacebutready]

The only way that would continue is if the civilian market could purchase select fire arms, or former select fire arms. Even when it was legal to sell the handguns in the 1990s the government chose to destroy many of the stockpiled 1911s rather than let them go to civilians or even risk them being sold to civilians later during another administration by continuing to stockpile them. The huge numbers of m14s destroyed got more notice, but they destroyed many of the stockpiled semi auto handguns too.

You have a Bill Clinton White House, and Assault Weapon Ban passing Congress, to thank for the climate that caused them to pressure not only that, but also for the ATF to issue the interpretation that 'once a machinegun always a machinegun' line people repeat since then. This supported what was being done to the m14 rifles by silencing cries of the destruction of one of our finest service rifles by civilians hoping to get them. The m1 Garand was the last time a citizen could easily purchase a former standard service rifle of any branch of its military. Of course anything still sold to the public could be purchased with NFA paperwork until 1968 for foreign things and 1986 for domestic.

The easiest way to change it would probably be to undo the ATF determination that once a machinegun always a machinegun. That is not in congressional law, it is an ATF ruling.

Then the fire control parts and other determined components could be swapped out and citizens could still get guns that governments no longer want.

I wonder how many 1911s and m14s were destroyed.

About "once a machine gun, always a machine gun" is a fallacy if fire control and other parts taken out would make them just like a civilian semi-auto.

 

[grampajack]

I think some people think supplies went dry with 7.62R due to it either running out or military operations in Ukraine.

Isn't there a lot of 7.62X25 Tokarev ammo out there? I think it is not importable due to it being Chinese and/or armor piercing.

I'm not really sure. Most of what I've seen has always been Bulgarian. But Russia still stockpiles it, and we're the only market where they can unload that much ammo when it gets out of date. At some point they would definitely be sending some our way if our government would allow it. And if they overturned Obama's ridiculous ban on 5.45 then we would be getting some of that straight away I'm sure. We would also be getting super cheap AK74 parts kits if they could import them, as they have a massive surplus of them.

 

[peacebutready]

Peacebutready: no details were given by the Navy (possibly civilian) guy working at Crane, when he chatted with my former coworker.

So little seems to be known about small arms stored there--other than M-14s used by the Marine Rifle Team--that possibly the secrecy is a result of the existence of a huge amount of small arms?

If there are a lot of small arms, they probably know people like us want them. BTW, a while back, but not too long ago, something like billions in ordnance including domestic small arms ammo was destroyed. I haven't heard anything as to how much 5.56, 9mm ball, 7.62, etc was destroyed.

 

[wojownik]

What happened to the Russian inventory of Winchester M1895 leveractions in 7.62x54R?

Around 300,000 were delivered to Russia by 1916, and many (most saw action there). Of the serviceable rifles that survived the war, a good number were sent to Spain during the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s. A couple of thousand made it back to the US in the 1960s, somehow (probably Spanish Civil War surplus) . Alas, while there are reportedly some of these still stored somewhere in Russia, it seems that these will be "grail surplus" in anything like decent condition.

 

[Atla]

I can get the rising costs of rifles as supplies dry up, but the $400-500 SKS's still blow my mind.

To me they will always be a $250 rifle.

 

[Tirod]

I keep hearing firearms sales are down yet the ATF keeps posting record NICS checks. Anybody doing the math before accepting what is printed in the media?

Think about that - media.

As for cheap surplus guns, no. Most of the semi autos are far past their fleet disposal sales, very few use them as a battle rifles. All that are left are AK's, HK's etc and most are full auto. The current status of our relationship with former Soviet Union manufacturers leaves a lot of them on a "no trade" list until things calm down.

Handguns? The best thing going was the sale of used LEO S&W 3 gen autos. Next up will be used LEO Glocks. I have little hope we will see any M9's make it to the CMP when we can't even get the last 100,000 1911's released, even this administration is dragging it's heels on it.

Presidents who assume the office are often bound by previous decisions and it takes a lot of "political capital" to change things back. Every time we shut down imports (for good reasons) we then limit what will be allowed to come back later.

Surplus guns are drying up, they sent them to the US because it was a lucrative market but also to clean off their shelves and prevent them getting into the hands of their in country opponents. They don't have "CMP" organizations in their countries - if some rebel group in a neighboring country doesn't want old outdated junk, they give them better ones. We buy the leftovers and full auto isn't coming here.

It's a sea change in how guns are shuffled across borders and because we have a "no full auto" policy because of the '34 NFA you now see how it's enabling the anti gunners. We were warned about it and now the chickens have come home to roost.

 

[peacebutready]

Handguns? The best thing going was the sale of used LEO S&W 3 gen autos. Next up will be used LEO Glocks. I have little hope we will see any M9's make it to the CMP when we can't even get the last 100,000 1911's released, even this administration is dragging it's heels on it.

Presidents who assume the office are often bound by previous decisions and it takes a lot of "political capital" to change things back. Every time we shut down imports (for good reasons) we then limit what will be allowed to come back later.

It's a sea change in how guns are shuffled across borders and because we have a "no full auto" policy because of the '34 NFA you now see how it's enabling the anti gunners. We were warned about it and now the chickens have come home to roost.

Thanks for the good info.

I hope the prices for the used Glocks (or other LE used polymer guns) will be better than what I've seen. Right now I rather buy new.

If full auto firearms can be changed to semi-auto permanently, there's no sense in not letting them here.

 

[Ignition Override]

Even though I'm not into Garands recently, is there too much paperwork involved for the DOD to receive the many crates of M-1s stored in the Phillipines, which qualify (they were loans) for shipment back to the DOD?

 

[Speedo66]

I can get the rising costs of rifles as supplies dry up, but the $400-500 SKS's still blow my mind.

To me they will always be a $250 rifle.

"To me they will always be a $79 rifle." Fixed

 

[Speedo66]

Barnbwt said "supposedly a warehouse of MP412 Rex revolvers out there"

Had never heard of these Soviet revolvers, supposedly made for civilian sales to other countries. Interesting but ugly .357 Mag break top, steel and polymer. Thanks Bill for killing sales to the US!

Here's a Wiki bit on them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MP-412_REX

 

[AndyP]

Peacebutready: no details were given by the Navy (possibly civilian) guy working at Crane, when he chatted with my former coworker.

So little seems to be known about small arms stored there--other than M-14s used by the Marine Rifle Team--that possibly the secrecy is a result of the existence of a huge amount of small arms?

Why would generic mortar shells, mortars, bazookas, even tanks need to be hidden away in crates etc which could resemble the last scene in "Raiders Of The Lost Ark"?

I live fairly close to Crane, and about a mile from my home is a small salvage yard that I know for a fact has destroyed a lot of guns for them. A guy that used to work at the salvage place told me Crane had to have a rep watch when they destroyed handguns, but they could destroy rifles, scopes, machine-guns unsupervised- and they crushed them by the truckload.
I have no idea of what percentage of the inventory was crushed.

 

[GBExpat]

"To me they will always be a $79 rifle." Fixed

That is what they were selling for the 1st time I ever saw an SKS at the Medina, OH Gunshow in 1988(?).

They were much too crude to interest me and, besides, I had just managed to find (at that show) the .44mag Marlin 1894 that I had been seeking for years.

 

[Speedo66]

That is what they were selling for the 1st time I ever saw an SKS at the Medina, OH Gunshow in 1988(?).

They were much too crude to interest me and, besides, I had just managed to find (at that show) the .44mag Marlin 1894 that I had been seeking for years.

Crude, yes, but at the time $79 for a brand new center fire, chromed bore, semi auto battle quality rifle was, at least to me, still a steal. I grabbed two.