Did we really lose?

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DF357

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Several posters have said we lost ground in the Senate yesterday. I wonder.

The original bill was to stop the industry lawsuits but got all these other ammendments tacked on. Many of the ammendments passed but the whole thing ultimately failed.

The way I see it is that we didn't gain anything (anti lawsuit stuff) but didn't actually lose anything either. Seems the battle went to a draw because the whole bill failed. We just didn't gain any ground.

That's not altogether bad as we didn't suffer any more wounds, got to get a better idea of whom the enemy(s) is and we are still able to wage another battle, this time even better informed than before.

I think this was a good staging ground that ultimately will benefit us by being able to see who has the bullets we need to dodge, and whom to attack.

Maybe I'm missing something ?
 
IMHO we lost.

The Republopig controlled Senate copped out and passed the AWB amendment.

What they should have done was to strip the bill of all those BS amendments, pass it and send it on to the House/Senate Conference commitee.

[rant]
Politics??? Why the heck can't politicians just propose stand alone legislation that can be voted clean instead of muddying the waters with amendments which often have nothing what so ever to do with the foundation legislation.

GAWD I hate politics and the practitioners thereof be they actual legislators or the mealy mouthed, two faced kind you find in the business world.

What ever happened to just talking straight and telling it like it is?
[/rant]
 
IMO...

It was a draw.

We didn't get the lawsuit protection, and they didn't get the AWB renewal, the "gun show loophole" :rolleyes: closed, or manditory trigger locks.

Even though it was a draw, I think the RKBA side had much more to lose. So in that regard we came out on top. For better or worse, the AWB has sort of become the stand-in for a national referendum on RKBA in general, or so it would seem. It's costly, but to date, the firearms industry has been doing well in court interms of verdicts. It would have been nice, but we can survive without firearms tort reform. I also think that the next litigation fads, alcohol, and food, are now gearing up, and the trial lawyers will be digging in deeper pockets soon.

Anti gun groups have already been decimated, MMM'ers nearly vanishing, CCW in the vast majority of states, with three added in just the past year, pro-gun shifts in most legislatures, etc. etc. etc. That they're persuing the gun-lawsuit strategy in the first place is the major sign of just how on the ropes the anti's are right now. The lawsuit preemption would merely have been the nail in the coffin of a political movment that's already on some serious life support.

The tide is still in our favor for now. (ask me again in '05) Many gun owners are just cantankerous pessimists by nature, and can't seem to generate an adequate sense of self unless they are feeling persecuted, IMO.
 
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We don't know what all the players' strageties are/were, but here's a thought:

This is a strategic game. Similar to chess, if you can feint your opponent into giving away his best moves and defeating them now, you gain the initiative.

It is likely that adding the AWB to S.1805 was the anti's best chance to get the AWB renewed before it expires. Passing another AWB once this one is gone and hell doesn't break loose will be difficult ("We already tried that."). Allowing the AWB amendment to be added and then killing the whole bill could be interpreted as a strategic move to feint the anti's into playing their best move. They did, and we defeated it.

For me personally, the AWB is the highest priority gun control item I want "fixed."

-z
 
It is likely that adding the AWB to S.1805 was the anti's best chance to get the AWB renewed before it expires.
Click to expand...

They didn't seem to feel that way, or else they would have voted for the bill!
 
I said in the poll thread that this was a stalemate. Upon further reflection, while there were no incremental gains over the last few weeks, the guns rights movement has positioned itself MUCH better for the current and next political cycle.

First, this was the last chance for the AWB to get renewed. Once gone, as long as blood doesn’t flow in the streets, it will be hard to justify the cost of renewing it again.

Second, we have identified those senators who chose to stand back when the fight was on. Specifically, McCain, Lugar, DeWine, Voinovich and Warner, to name a few, actively turned tail or acted against our interests. They must be reminded, every day until November that we remember. And, every election cycle after, they can no longer sit this issue out.

Third, Ted Kennedy, unwittingly, revealed that the current gun safety mantra is still about control and banning. By placing statements, on the record, that he wants to ban one of the most popular rounds in America (the 30-30) he put every hunter on notice that the fight IS about them. Used right, we just gained another 10-30 million activists.

Fourth, with respect to the bill that was lost, the members of the firearms industry still have additional courses of redress. My non-legal view of the trend is that the cases are getting thrown out earlier and earlier. I know of the death by a thousand cuts argument, but the debate over the last few weeks has certainly raised the issue of tort reform to a new level. Plus, if the Brady / MMM / AGS backers of these frivolous suits coordinate too much; I could see a reasonable case made for a nice RICO investigation. (Not that I expect it before November, but a man can hope, can’t he?)

Fifth, and probably most importantly, we (collectively) made our voices heard that we are no longer willing to bargain our rights away. The NRA realized we were not going to accept the compromises made in the past, and relayed that message to the congress. And the White House said publicly, they would only accept a clean bill, probably remembering what happened to GHWB in 1992.

Instead of lamenting a loss, now is the perfect time to capitalize on the momentum. In the presidential race, Kerry is a lost cause. But, Bush can certainly be held to task. We helped bring him to this dance, and we can certainly un-invite him to the next.

Believe it or not, our voice was heard this week. Now is the time to use it.

Marty
 
"Enough" of the Dems were going to vote for the bill--until Craig called for it to be knifed. That was why Feinstein was "stunned" in the quote I have in my signature line.

Here is my alien autopsy on the Democratic strategy. It is alien, because it hurts my head to think like a gun grabber but here goes:

OPERATIVE FACTS AS A Democrat:

The AWB will expire without further Congressional approval.
We Jackasses are in the minority.
Daschle is in a tough re-election fight and Feingold is vulnerable in Wisconsin.
Two of our members are running for the Democratic nomination for president.
The NRA wants this bill badly, it has a surface number of cosponsors to pass.
We could filibuster it, but the vote would be close and we could lose a straight up vote after a filibuster fails.
McCain has been sucking the "Americans for Gun Safety" teat and has a pet amendment he wants concerning gun shows. He will pressure Frist into allowing more than technical amendments.
President Bush would be highly embarrassed to actually have to renew the AWB.
There are 8-12 potential RINO allies.
We have about roughly the same number of potential defectors.
Most of the members for gun control measures are in safe seats.

JACKASS LEGISLATIVE STRATEGY:

Get vulnerable Jackasses to sign on as co-sponsors.
Have Daschle insist on a technical amendment and imply he will help prevent a threatened filibuster.
Daschle's "support" opens the door to the idea of amending the bill along with McCain being a PITA to Craig and Frist.
Broaden to a general offer of a cloture vote against a potential filibuster in exchange for an opportunity to offer a limited amount of amendments.
Craft an amendment (Boxer/Kohl) that will give us an indicator of how many Republican Senators we don't already have in our pockets who are not automatically against gun infringement measures.
Offer up the AWB and Gun Show amendments as either positive vehicles for our agenda or poison to the Republican agenda.
Give interviews to the press to pressure Bush into reiterating support for the AWB's renewal.
Make our thunder about guns.
Let Kennedy have his drunken "cop-killer" rant to keep him happy and make Kerry look like the moderate.
Invite Kerry for a televised campaign speech at the height of debate.
Try and pass favorable amendments with RINO support.
Make cloakroom comments and parts of speeches lamenting how the House will strip out any amendments to keep the Republicans from tossing the bill and then spring our true strategy on them by:

Voting, after final passage of the amended bill, to not release the bill from the Senate to conference, (betray our non-filibuster agreement by claiming we were only talking about not filibustering S.1805 through final passage, not through when we were hashing out the details for conference.
Extort the Republicans, through media pressure on the White House, to make the House consider S.1805 as amended and have the House renew the AWB, even if we have to give up the GSL and trigger lock amendments in negotiation. Force Bush to keep his "promise" despite his call for a clean bill.

Get the AWB in front of the President for a signing ceremony and claim a victory over the Republicans and the NRA on their REAL legislative goal of the DECADE. Since they are going to keep coming back with the lawsuit immunity bill as long as they are in the majority and we only have to get the AWB renewed every decade we win now and they already have the inevitiable.

WHAT WENT WRONG?

Though we had the votes for the amendments, we miscalculated about the NRA. Though they had made rumblings about not supporting anything but a "clean" bill, it was thought that the conference compromise would be possible. The miscalculation was that the NRA would want an end to the harassment lawsuits worse than the end of the AWB. It turns out to be the reverse. The NRA represents the interests of its members, not the industry as a whole, and when forced to decide between the best interests of both it goes with its membership's hatred of the AWB.

POTENTIAL PROBLEMS

We essentially got nothing but the continuation of a handful of unpromising tort cases. In exchange the NRA is going to get the death of the AWB. Additionally, they have reams of anti-gun rhetoric to pore over, recorded votes to analyze and to spin as fig leafing, especially in South Dakota against Daschle. They now have a firm number on who the traitors in their ranks are, and a windy video of John Kerry showing up to the Senate for the first time in about a year, ONLY for a recorded vote in favor of gun control and a speech that will do nothing but be replayed for NRA members in informercials and on right wing radio.

In sum, WE SUCK.

--------------------
End of alien autopsy. Whew.
 
It was a big win. The AWB is going to die now. Yes, it would be nice if gun companies had extra protection--but gun owners are going to get their rights back for the first time...ever? If you would have told me in 94 that this ban wouldn't be renewed, I would have thought you were smoking crack. Immunity is an issue for overall tort reform. Plus, a lot of states have already passed protections (like GA). Yesterday we were at risk of getting trigger locks (but who cares?), no gun shows, and a new AWB. Today, we are looking at a very good odds for all of that crap dying. Yee haa!


Yeah!
 
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