How closely is group size related to extreme spread?

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Catpop

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Are smaller groups generally associated with smaller fps spread (ES) per shot string? My feeling is yes, but I'm new to this fps thing so any comments welcome.
Also, how important is the SD since it is a little time consuming to compute? Sorry for my ignorance, I didn't "gadeate wit honors" from statistics 101.
 
I would personally say that standard deviation would be more important.

Let's say you have your standard Bell curve, and have a standard deviation of 10. That means 90% of your rounds are near the average. With only 5% being faster and 5% being slower than your average.

That's how I understand it to be. It's been awhile since I took stats 101. Lol
 
Are smaller groups generally associated with smaller fps spread (ES) per shot string?
Not necessarily. On target results trump all numbers. Small ES numbers do help at long range.
 
Numbers are numbers. You can have excellent numbers but if it's not accurate what's the point?

Statistics are only as good as your sample size. If you test 5 rounds then it's meaningless. The large the sample the better the data. Generally folks take 10 shots. Even that is a small sample.

ES could be caused by a bad powder charge, a bad crimp a weak primer Lots of things.

Even though true Statisticians do not think SD is the big one, I think it shows consistency. So a large sample with a low SD to me usually indicates a good load, but as mentioned is it accurate?? Chronys are good to see that you are not exceeding velocity suggested in the manuals or at least close considering what they used for the test data.

Load up 10-20 rounds, use ll the same headstamp brass, weigh each powder charge and test those. Most Chronys do the math for you?? If not get a cheap calculator that does everything now. We did not have calculators in College still on the slide rules;)

I took a lot of math in school and Statistics was the WORST!:D:eek:
 
SD matters in the grand scheme of overall accuracy. It is an indicator of how good a job you did with your reloads. You could shoot a fantastic group with 5 or 10 rounds out of a box and have 10 real duds still in the box. Measuring the overall SD and accuracy of 100 rounds will give you a really solid sample. I suggest a chrono and a ransom rest if reloading for accuracy interests you. Stats are all about the size of the sample.
 
your SD and ES numbers are almost worthless since they occur at, or near the muzzle. What matters is the accuracy of the load and whether or not the velocity is where it needs to be to achieve expansion (if that's what you're after)
If you're not after expansion and you're chasing guilt edge accuracy then vary the velocity by varying the powder charge (within reason) until you find what it "right" for this particular gun.
 
Walkalong (above post) has it right. It is often difficult to relate ES with accuracy or lack thereof. Accuracy is what you see on target. Short range benchrest shooters, if they chronograph their loads at all, do so mainly to check velocities of different propellants and generally ignore ES and even laugh at the surprisingly wide ES of some of their best loads. I talked to the shooter who set the new world record light varmint benchrest aggregate a couple years ago and he said he had no idea the ES or even the velocity of his record winning load and could care less. (His winning record was something like .1440" for five 5-shot groups at 100 yds.) Standard deviation is even more useless, especially if there fewer than 100 entries. Otherwise chasing SD expecting improved accuracy is like a dog chasing its tail. Some long range (1000 yds) target shooters tend to pay more attention to ES and say they can see the differences on target, (verticle) which I don't doubt. But most shooters/handloaders are better off leaving the chronograph at home and concentrating on the finer points of marksmanship and loading technique.
 
Reloading is a manufacturing process, be it on a smaller scale it remains a process that requires control.

To control processes, manufacturers record numerous data points / inputs which are diagnostic of that particular process and will be indicative of whether that process is in control or about to drift out of control requiring some form of intervention.

Most serious reloaders record raw materials just like any manufacturer does. Brass, powder batch, primers etc. An like with many manufacturers we are unable to test many of the components as we simply do not have the facilities and therefore we are reduced to trusting that that manufacturers "process control" is excellent. These manufacturers use statistical quality control as one of the means of "process control".

So many reloaders use some of these methods of quality control to achieve process control. Process control is about being able to control a process within a prescribed bandwidth, the tighter the bandwidth the more the cost and the time will increase to achieve these results. Process control is also about having the history of the process that allows one to immediately identify what has gone wrong and how to repair it. Many questions I see asked in reloading forums could have been answered by the poster had they taken the time to understand and practice the most basic of data collection and analysis. People spend loads of money groping in the dark and guessing on changes that they think need to be made in loads. It is also why people blow up actions with poorly designed loads etc.

Now if you are a hunter and you define your process as being 1MOA +- 0.5MOA as being an acceptable group then your process will require less input in terms of case internal volumes, powder dispensing etc. So simply put your cost will be less than people like me who like reloading to the nth degree. So set up you process control for your requirement. Quality is after all defined as "Fitness for Purpose".

Back to ES. ES measures the accuracy of your loading process and the quality of the components you use in this process. As Optimum Barrel Time is used to calculate accuracy nodes we should measure this ..... but we cannot as we do not have the equipment. What we can do however is to measure muzzle velocity which provides a contant measure and is cheaper to monitor and is a function of the OBT. So the further you deviate from the average muzzle velocity the less control you have over the process.

But ES alone is not enough so we assimilate all our readings to calculate the average velocity and then how many standard deviations we vary from this average.

To put std deviation it into perspective, world class manufacturers (all manner of goods) strive to produce to what they call 6 Sigma (or a total of 6 std deviations), which would relate to +- 3 std deviations about the average.

Now ES for me is the important number, the lower it is the better the control. Std deviation is merely the summary of all the results that make up the ES and is a function of ES rather than the other way around.

All my results (all load development is at 100m) show that the smaller the ES the better the group WHEN I am shooting properly. Recently I had std deviations on .375 loads of 1.0 / 1.5 and 5.1 std deviations but poor groups, later I realised it was poor left hand control which I could replicate. Firmed up my left hand grip and groups closed up, I had a 0.24MOA with a .375H&H.

A low ES, simply put, allows you to measure the accuracy of your loading process and removes a very important variable, the quality standard of the ammo. If my SD's are below 6 and I cannot get groups then the problem is me, proved it time and again.

A bit long winded, but at times I think we don't understand what a great tool statistical quality control is for the reloader.
 
for short range, it totally doesn't matter at all (although it could be indicative of another problem that could also cause accuracy issues)

for long range, if you measure your groups size using ES, then measure your velocity using ES. duh. If you measure your group using mean radius, then pay more attention to the SD of your velocity.

I guarantee ES is important at long range.
 
I guarantee ES is important at long range.

I agree. At 100 yards, ES doesn't make much difference. When you get up to the 400 yard range it does. Get a load that shoots well at 100 yards with more than you would like extreme spreads and try it at 400+ yards and you'll probably get a nice vertical string.
 
In General, YES, Reloading for accuracy I have found that smaller ES and SD numbers do often have a direct relationship to more accurate loads...once you find the right bullet and velocity for your rifle at the distance you are shooting

But as others have said there are too many variables to be making general statements. If there is a flaw in the rifle, shooter, optic, reloading process etc even good loads might not be "accurate".

We have to assume a lot to make general statements.
 
Wow, thanks for all the great info!
For now, I'll keep working toward smaller groups AND let ES indicate I'm becoming more consistent thus improving my reloading process.
If all things are identical, then ES should be 0, correct?
And if ES 0, then all I have to do is work up the best load for my gun, correct?
Or have I over simplified this?
 
If all things are identical, then ES should be 0, correct?
Yes but perfection is unfortunately a little harder to achieve in reality. I am happy with single digit Std Dev and ecstatic with sub 5 std dev. Given that I do not use any fancy reloading gear or competition dies etc. Bear in mind that I seldom shoot past 300m so bear that in mind.

And if ES 0, then all I have to do is work up the best load for my gun, correct?
No, the best load for your gun will give you the low ES. ES is a measure of the effectiveness of the load.
 
Andrew Leigh,
I think I understand what you are saying in that the best load will have the lowest ES.
I'm not sure of your definition of "effectiveness". Do you mean most efficient combination?
 
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