"It wont happen to me" Syndrome.
- Thread starter KriegHund
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MTMilitiaman
Member
No they won't. One of your neighbors in this area is just jealous you have a generator so he never leaves your house but thankfully brings his own beer. The other neighbors don't live much better so if you're the Unibomber, they are Timothy McVeigh.
1911Tuner
Moderator Emeritus
MTMilitiaman
MTMilitiaman...
Yep!
The isolation caveat was more aimed at the sheeple who live in small towns or isolated areas...not for the guys who understand the S/S/S drill.
MTMilitiaman...
Yep!The isolation caveat was more aimed at the sheeple who live in small towns or isolated areas...not for the guys who understand the S/S/S drill.
1911 guy
Member
Lee Lapin hit the nail on the head.
Odds are not the issue. It probably WON'T happen to you. But if it does, the stakes can be high enough to warrant being prepared. For every person on this board who has been robbed, mugged, etc., there are many who have not. But it may be my turn next, so I go prepared.
Odds are not the issue. It probably WON'T happen to you. But if it does, the stakes can be high enough to warrant being prepared. For every person on this board who has been robbed, mugged, etc., there are many who have not. But it may be my turn next, so I go prepared.
1911Tuner
Moderator Emeritus
Odds
+1, mah fren. It may indeed be my day to die at the hands of a cretin...but he's gonna hafta prove that it's my day and not his.
1911 guy said:
+1, mah fren. It may indeed be my day to die at the hands of a cretin...but he's gonna hafta prove that it's my day and not his.
Gordon Fink
Member
The rural it-can’t-happen-to-me attitude kind of puts the lie to that whole effeminate-urban-male myth.
That said, it never ceases to amaze me that many of those interested in ancient arms and armor can’t see the utility or necessity of modern weapons. There used to be some interesting gun-control discussions at Sword Forum until political topics were banned.
~G. Fink
That said, it never ceases to amaze me that many of those interested in ancient arms and armor can’t see the utility or necessity of modern weapons. There used to be some interesting gun-control discussions at Sword Forum until political topics were banned.
~G. Fink
PlayboyPenguin
member
Easy to see why some people think this....
It is easy to see why some people think this way...just looking at the numbers you have less than one half of one percent chance of being involved in a violent crime (.005) and your chance of being killed is much much smaller. You have a one and a half percent (.015) chance of being in an automible accident and the chances of dying in one (even though much smaller) are higher than dying from violent crime but we all still make the decision that driving is worth the calculated risk we take by doing so. I myself believe in being prepared for the worst. If bad things happen you will be prepared and if they do not you will be pleasantly suprised. Some people call this being a fatalist. I call it being a realist. We will never be able to sell firearms rights by fear. The numbers do not back us up. In my opinion we need to promote the sporting side, the camaraderie, the need for strong national defense, etc. and to try and sway middle ground people by showing firearm owners desire to protect our homeland, be responsible, to teach proper safety, to do what we can to keep guns out of the hands of criminals. Not rant and rave and act like bullies...that will get us nowhere.
I know some right winger will pop a vessel when they read this but that only proves my point.
It is easy to see why some people think this way...just looking at the numbers you have less than one half of one percent chance of being involved in a violent crime (.005) and your chance of being killed is much much smaller. You have a one and a half percent (.015) chance of being in an automible accident and the chances of dying in one (even though much smaller) are higher than dying from violent crime but we all still make the decision that driving is worth the calculated risk we take by doing so. I myself believe in being prepared for the worst. If bad things happen you will be prepared and if they do not you will be pleasantly suprised. Some people call this being a fatalist. I call it being a realist. We will never be able to sell firearms rights by fear. The numbers do not back us up. In my opinion we need to promote the sporting side, the camaraderie, the need for strong national defense, etc. and to try and sway middle ground people by showing firearm owners desire to protect our homeland, be responsible, to teach proper safety, to do what we can to keep guns out of the hands of criminals. Not rant and rave and act like bullies...that will get us nowhere.
I know some right winger will pop a vessel when they read this but that only proves my point.
Gordon Fink
Member
Playboy, I’m not a right winger and not bursting a blood vessel and agree with you about not trying to sell our right to arms through fear, but I have to disagree with you on a couple points.
Promoting only the recreational side of firearms ownership and usage is a losing proposition. If firearms are just for recreation, why do we need anything other than small-caliber rifles and shotguns? Why not just use airguns? Better yet, why not just eliminate guns altogether, because realistic computer simulations can provide far more recreational opportunities than target shooting or hunting?
The national-defense angle is also a losing argument. The U.S. has the most powerful standing army the world has ever seen. What difference would a few sportsmen with their .177-caliber air rifles make during a laughably improbable invasion of the U.S. mainland?
~G. Fink
Promoting only the recreational side of firearms ownership and usage is a losing proposition. If firearms are just for recreation, why do we need anything other than small-caliber rifles and shotguns? Why not just use airguns? Better yet, why not just eliminate guns altogether, because realistic computer simulations can provide far more recreational opportunities than target shooting or hunting?
The national-defense angle is also a losing argument. The U.S. has the most powerful standing army the world has ever seen. What difference would a few sportsmen with their .177-caliber air rifles make during a laughably improbable invasion of the U.S. mainland?
~G. Fink
1911Tuner
Moderator Emeritus
Arm the Bears
Gordon Fink stated:
>Promoting only the recreational side of firearms ownership and usage is a losing proposition. If firearms are just for recreation, why do we need anything other than small-caliber rifles and shotguns?<
***********************
Agree 101%. The sporting use of firearms has nothing to do with the right to keep and bear arms...nor anything to do with the reason that we were provided with that right via 2A.
The Constitution doesn't state that we have the right to keep and bear sporting goods.
Gordon Fink stated:
>Promoting only the recreational side of firearms ownership and usage is a losing proposition. If firearms are just for recreation, why do we need anything other than small-caliber rifles and shotguns?<
***********************
Agree 101%. The sporting use of firearms has nothing to do with the right to keep and bear arms...nor anything to do with the reason that we were provided with that right via 2A.
The Constitution doesn't state that we have the right to keep and bear sporting goods.
KriegHund
Member
SMLE said:
Nope.
As a side not to my original post, someone madeup a thread on the same forum (TRL) for the purpose of debating guns.
Ive noticed that many of the anti-gun members resort to name calling and short tirades (oxymoron?) about the evils of guns.
Perhaps it shows something of the general character of each side?
Stiletto Null
Member
Oh man...there was a DOOZY of a thread over at Internet Infidels on the subject of gun control.
We sometimes refer to it when guns come up as the thread which shall not be named.
Shrubageddon...ugh.
We sometimes refer to it when guns come up as the thread which shall not be named.
Shrubageddon...ugh.
PlayboyPenguin
member
Gordon Fink said:
I'm sorry...my national defense wording was a little vague (I was on my way to work and in a hurry). I am thinking more along the lines of the citizens of this nation being able to defend themselves against Haliburton (or some such multi-national) and their private army once the country is completely sold to them. That might even rally some leftists to the cause. But I do think we need to start stressing other aspects more. All people see on television are rednecks blowing up cars with automatic weapons (like on WebJunk 20 last week). The old "buy a gun or someone is going to attack you" argument does not sway many people. Most people realize that they do not even know anyone ever attacked violently by a stranger so it does not worry them to much and they start to question not only the argument but the character of the person making it when this tactic is used.
I wouldn't say an invasion is improbable. After all there are reports of Mexican Army
units crossing the border. Considering that most of our troops are oversees Mexico could take a big of our country. China is another country that could take us on.
The aurgment you should make with people like these is that gun owership is a form of insurance or prepareness. Violent crime can strike anyone, antwhere, and at anytime.
-Bill
Gordon Fink
Member
whm1974 said:
I agree, more or less. I would focus on the rights of free citizens, but practically speaking, a defensive firearm is like any other piece of safety equipment (fire extinguishers, seatbelts, first-aid kits, etc.). Recreation and sporting uses are just a nice bonus.
~G. Fink
fiVe
Member
Regardless of where you live (rural, city, or somewhere in between), you need to be as prepared as possible. Somewhere I read a quote that went something like this......
You will probably never need a gun, but if you do, you will need it badly.
You will probably never need a gun, but if you do, you will need it badly.
GruntII
member
I don't buy the small town odds are against it stuff.My first LE job was in a town of less than 25000. It ranked in the most violkent cities in the state per capita. I got just as much experience in my time there as most urban police officers did and some experience with other things the urban officer might not get (How many Urban Officers respond to a prowler call and find that the homeowners Ostriches have set off the alarm? )
I carry 2 or more firearms,spare ammo, OC, 2 knives, a cell phone and various other sundries on me or in my car because I realize Murphy don't don't read crime figures.The issue isn't how often, when or where, the issue is if it is when it happens do I have what I need in mindset, training and equipment?Can't happen here or to me ot to us is the most unproffessional, small minded thing anyone can be they a cop or citizen or a HSLD contractor operating in a combat zone.
)I carry 2 or more firearms,spare ammo, OC, 2 knives, a cell phone and various other sundries on me or in my car because I realize Murphy don't don't read crime figures.The issue isn't how often, when or where, the issue is if it is when it happens do I have what I need in mindset, training and equipment?Can't happen here or to me ot to us is the most unproffessional, small minded thing anyone can be they a cop or citizen or a HSLD contractor operating in a combat zone.
Meplat
Member
PlayboyPenguin said:
There's liars, damned liars, and statistics. Those numbers above don't take into account the two million times per year in this country that people use a firearm to stop either an assault or worse from happening. Else, it would have been HIGHLY statistically improbable that I would have stopped one home invasion and one armed robbery (knife weilder) of my family. By those figures, I need to be buying lottery tickets by the trainload, since I would have already have "beaten" your odds were I naked. Adding those KNOWN two million back into the equation (what we'd have without access to firearms for personal protection) - and NOT counting the number of unreported incidents - would thus bring you figure up to 1/2 of that of your chances for being INJURED in a car accident. (CDC study does not state that 4,563,000 people a year have accidents, but rather that 4,563,000 people a year are injured in accidents badly enough to require emergency room treatment.) The actual number or people "being in automible accidents" is exponetially higher. And, oh, yeah. Those numbers are cumalitive, unless we get a three hundred million person rollover in this country per year, which we don't. Looked at in a realistic light these numbers are not nearly as encouraging as you'd like to believe, unless you plan on only having a life span of 1 year.
Nope. CDC shows 1 in 59 (or 1.68%) chance of being in an injury causing auto accident in any given year, not a 1.5% chance of being in an accident. While you didn't miss it by much, you did miss it by miles.
http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/a/automobile_accidents_injury/stats.htm
42,401 deaths attributed to automobile accidents - 15,533 to murder - about three times as likely. Not that much smaller. Certainly not enough that I would consider self defense to be a non-viable argument. Especially once you grasp the concept that those figures are for ONE year.
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=\Nation\archive\200010\NAT20001015b.html
Not by fear. By educating to the inherent benefits of not being naked when you need clothes on. In much the same fashion that seat belt usage is MUCH more accepted by the masses of today than of yesteryear because of the fact that it has been drummed into the populace over and over again. They (seatbelts) save lives and prevent injuries. I for one WILL NOT get on my motorcycle without a helmet and full protective gear and a pre-flight check. Why? These things save lives and reduce injuries. I WILL NOT get in a car without checking the air pressure in my tires and fastening my seat belt BEFORE my key goes into the ignition. Why? Because these things save lives and reduce injuries. I WILL NOT go naked into the world where potential bodily harm awaits the naked. Why? See above.
I think perhaps you need to learn how to read and understand numbers before making that assertion.
I know some right winger will pop a vessel when they read this but that only proves my point.
No popped vessels...sorry. Just a sad shake of the head when someone who professes to be "a member for the cause" doesn't even grasp basic numbers.
edited for spelling.
Meplat
Member
PlayboyPenguin said:
Before I ask what size to make your tin foil hat, please tell me the above was in jest?
Sorry. I don't watch too much tv. It makes it hard to comprehend numbers, as well as doing many other critical cerebral functions. Like base a purchase of an arm on something other than a "zombie thread".
PlayboyPenguin
member
Mel, you need to re-read and work on the comrehension skills a little. 1.68% written numerically to the third digit would be .016...I wrote .015. if you want to quible over .001 I will concede to the number of .016. I guess I am gulity of round to a multiple of 5. However you sa it I do not see where I was "off by a mile".Meplat said:
The agrgument you say about 3 times as many people dying in a car accident each year was exactely what I was saying. You are more likely to die in a car than by murder. I do not see what you are saying different. The part in quotes about being much smaller was referring to the fact that you are alot less likely to be in a fatal car accident than just a fender bender.
As for the number of attacks prevented by a handgun each year I am open to seeing the statistics but I cannot seem to find them on any govt crime rates site. Maybe these incidents are just not being reported. Please give me your source so I can read it. Thanks...
Meplat
Member
Biker said:IMO, not really, because it probably won't. Most folks, especially in a small town, haven't known anyone victimized by extreme violence, hence it doesn't exist.
Man, that wasn't much help, was it...
Biker
Biker, I don't know about the small towns you've been in, but I have lived in small southern towns (actually outside small southern towns) for quite some time now. It seems that the meth cooks prefer our areas for the very fact that they are remote and thus they are less likely to be discovered cooking their poison. We have several labs a month destroyed in this county alone. Not nearly all of this stuff is exported, either. We have more than our share of meth users, thanks to the plentiful local supply. I'm sure I don't have to tell you that when someone starts tweaking, they don't take much consideration as to whether they are in a small town or a big city. We are not by any means rubes, and know these sad facts to be true. We also know that should you have to shoot a tweaker, you'd better hit fast and hit often if you have to put him down.
Meplat
Member
PlayboyPenguin said:
I had no argument with your percentages - (notice I gave you credit for 1.5%in my reply - or did your reading comprehension fail you during that part?). My argument was as to percentages of WHAT. You then applied the same flawed percentages to people who are assaulted every year in this country.
1.5% chance of being in an automobile accident my a*&. Are you trying to now tell me that only 1.5 out of every hundred people you know have EVER been in a car accident? That is what you stated. Or that only .5 out of every 100 people you know have been a victim of violent crime, or attempted violent crime? Are you living in an Amish community with no cars or crime?
You plainly stated that you had a 1.5% chance of being "in an automibile accident". I merely pointed out your faulty reasoning and false statement. You have a (okay - I'll give you your 1.5%) 1.5% chance of being INJURED in an automobile accident. ANNUALLY. That zooming noise going over your head was a point. Your chances of being in an automobile accident are astronomically higher, since not nearly every accident involves ER treatable injuries.
I'll spell it out for you. "In an automobile accident" does not equal "in an automobile accident that involves ER treatable injuries". Can NOT make it plainer than that.
You DID miss the point entirely, diddenim? What you are guilty of is mistating the whole nine yards. The point was that your numbers were waaaaay skewed. Still are. Address the post, if you can. You are guilty of either knowingly or unknowingly making a completely invalid statistical statement. Period. The only way this could be otherwise is for you to contend that EVERY automobile accident results in a treatable ER injury. Is this what you are contending?
3 times as likely hardly constitutes "MUCH more likely".
Number one was the vast difference between what you stated about both assaults and accidents and the actual facts, number two was about exaggerated claim of "MUCH more likely..." Break them down, argue them point by point...perhaps you will then have some reading comprehension of your own.
That is NOT what you said. I'm not going to spoon feed you your own posts. I replied to it in a point by point fashion.
*sigh* I won't pull the same crap you've pulled on me in the past...
See: Dr. Gary Kleck's (criminologist at Florida State University) "Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America"
Edited: As a post script, I did not say "handguns". I said "firearms".
AND, the figure is actually 2.5 million, thus skewing (and screwing) your figures even further.
Dusty Rusty
Member
I live in a town of 5000. Right behind my house is an old unused school. I went out to take the garbage and heard glass breaking. I looked up to see the barrel of a rifle pointed at me. Ran inside and called 911, grabbed my .357 and watched two kids dressed ala Columbine coming down the fire escape. They got away before police arrived. I went to a City Council meeting and told them of the incident and others where the police have dragged kids out of the school that were high and doing God knows what. The school is still standing even after several small fires have been set. I told the Council that they would have to replace my home and contents if it burned as a result of vandalism to the school. They are still debating on whether to raze it or not. Say they have no money but I asked them what would happen if some kid got hurt and the parents sued the City.
The whole county's population is around 39,000 and we are one of the "meth capitals" of Kentucky. When I was growing up here, we never thought about such things. Most kids just egged cars on Halloween and no one locked their doors. I now lock my door EVERY time I leave the house, even to walk the dog and I always have a weapon on me except when I go to work. I work in a prison and we have had a couple of escapes. One lady was so trusting, she let one of the escapees in her house to make a phone call. Fortunately, he left beforre doing any harm.
You say it can't happen to you....well it can no matter where you live. Just be aware of your suroundings and be cautious. Times have changed everywhere, not just the big cities and not for the better either.
Ran inside and called 911, grabbed my .357 and watched two kids dressed ala Columbine coming down the fire escape. They got away before police arrived. I went to a City Council meeting and told them of the incident and others where the police have dragged kids out of the school that were high and doing God knows what. The school is still standing even after several small fires have been set. I told the Council that they would have to replace my home and contents if it burned as a result of vandalism to the school. They are still debating on whether to raze it or not. Say they have no money but I asked them what would happen if some kid got hurt and the parents sued the City. The whole county's population is around 39,000 and we are one of the "meth capitals" of Kentucky. When I was growing up here, we never thought about such things. Most kids just egged cars on Halloween and no one locked their doors. I now lock my door EVERY time I leave the house, even to walk the dog and I always have a weapon on me except when I go to work. I work in a prison and we have had a couple of escapes. One lady was so trusting, she let one of the escapees in her house to make a phone call. Fortunately, he left beforre doing any harm.
You say it can't happen to you....well it can no matter where you live. Just be aware of your suroundings and be cautious. Times have changed everywhere, not just the big cities and not for the better either.
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