# of privatly owned guns in the U.S.?

[Trebor]

I know there are fewer guns around then there used to be as a lot of guys have lost theirs in "tragic boating accidents" recently.

You know, in retrospect, taking my whole collection with me duck hunting wasn't such a good idea after all...

 

[JWF III]

Actually, if you add the estimate of 215 million in '99 to around 110 million more sold in the 10 years following, you get a reasonable approximation of 325,000,000 privately held firearms in the US today.

The only problem with that calculation is that it doesn't take into account the used guns that were traded/sold to a FFL holder, and then resold with the NICS check. So the same gun could have multiple NICS checks run on it's sale. So those guns would be counted multiple times.

I know that of the guns I've bought, in the last 5 years, less than 1/4 have been new. Of my collection (includes those inherited from my father), less than 10% were purchased new. Many of those were purchased before the idea of a background check was even dreamed up.

I know that I'm not the average gun owner (mid 30s, and I like old wood and metal guns, not plastic guns). But I'd guess that around 30%-40% of NCIS checks were for a used gun.

Then you have those states that a NICS check is not required for a CCW holder. The guns bought by these people weren't counted at all. (My guess would be less than 15% of all gun sales. Most likely 10% or less.)

IOW- When you get right down to it. Nobody knows how many are out there. Nobody knows how to get an accurate count of what's out there. All anybody can do is take a guess. My guess would be around the 300 million mark. One per citizen is probably close. All I know for sure is, I got quite a few non-gun owners covered.

Wyman

 

[22-rimfire]

The actual number of firearms in the US at any time is a guess. I like to keep it that way. The only way to get an "accurate" count is through gun registration or creation of a registry database.

New guns move into private use all the time. Some are imported and others are manufactured. Once you have a baseline, you can increase the number by the manufactured and imported number. The baseline may be difficult to come up with other than the number previously mentioned. It's a guess. The government probably knows how many are manufactured in recent years and should have records of imports. It doesn't matter how many times a firearm is bought and sold once it has been counted. You are talking about gross totals. You subtract the number of guns exported and have been removed from the gross through attritian.

 

[Buck Snort]

Sam1911 wrote: "The most interesting point to me is that, in Dec. of '98 there were 871,000 checks performed. 10 years later, in Dec. of 2008, there were over 1.5 MILLION checks performed. Almost a 300% increase."

Uh...........I think you need to add some clarification there Sam.

 

[benEzra]

If you're interested, there are some numbers on hunting participation, target shooting participation, etc. here:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/benEzra/107

And some general thoughts about the culture of gun ownership:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/benEzra/29

There is a lot of overlap between the law-abiding gun culture and the concept of bushido in traditional martial arts, in my observation. And finally, this book may also be interesting, although its focus is more anthropological than philosophical:

http://www.amazon.com/Shooters-Myths-Realities-Americas-Cultures/dp/0195150511

 

[Sam1911]

Sam1911 wrote: "The most interesting point to me is that, in Dec. of '98 there were 871,000 checks performed. 10 years later, in Dec. of 2008, there were over 1.5 MILLION checks performed. Almost a 300% increase."

Uh...........I think you need to add some clarification there Sam.

How 'bout "almost a 200% increase? Whoops. Ahh, math. Can't live with it, can't shoot it.

 

[kjohn]

I think there are only 37 left in Texas, the rest were smuggled into Mexico according to CNN.

Now, that is a good one!!

 

[hemiram]

Over the years, I don't know how many people who I wouldn't have thought they had a gun at all have one of the smaller .32 or .380 PPK, Astra Contstable, Bernardelli model 80, or old Berettas, or an old .38 S&W revolver or similar gun in a drawer. Some were in the box, in perfect shape, some had seen better days due to neglect, and some had been shot, and shot a lot.

One of my mother's friends found two guns after her husband died. One was a nazi marked Walther P38, a war trophy, I guess, engraved with an unreadable name in terrible shape from spending 50+ years in an unheated garage in a metal box that had nazi markings on it, and the other one, a nazi PPK, was almost in mint condition, except the grips were cracked along the screw holes, having spent it's days in the original box in an airconditioned room, wrapped in vapor paper and actually cleaned once in a while. It was loaded when she showed it to me, and she just wanted them gone. I sold them both on GB for her and she was shocked when I gave her close to $2000 when it was all said and done. She couldn't believe that "That old nazi junk" was worth anywhere near that much.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

In 1994 Americans owned 192 million firearms--US DoJ NIJ National Survey on Ownership and Use of Firearms (NSPOF) report by Philip Cook and Jens Ludwig, 1997, from a survey by Chiltons for the US govt.

From Nov 1998 to Apr 2010 there were 114,914,133 NICS background checks, normally done by Federal Firearms License holders (gun dealers) for legal firearms at the retail level (although NICS background checks do not necessarily mean approved sales they are a good indicator).

 

[Carl N. Brown]

Sam1911 needs to look at the BIG PICTURE (which with Vic Tory at Sea was one of my favorite TV shows).

COMPARISON
NICS Background Check Numbers

2007               2008               2009             
 Jan    894.608     Jan    942,556     Jan  1,213,885  
 Feb    914,954     Feb  1,021,130     Feb  1,259,078  
 Mar    975,806     Mar  1,040,863     Mar  1,345,096  
 Apr    840,271     Apr    940,961     Apr  1,225,980  
 May    803,051     May    886,183     May  1,023,102  
 Jun    792,943     Jun    819,891     Jun    968,145  
 Jul    757,884     Jul    891,224     Jul    966,162  
 Aug    917,358     Aug    956,872     Aug  1,074,757  
 Sep    944,889     Sep    973,003     Sep  1,093,230  
 Oct  1,025,123     Oct  1,183,279     Oct  1,233.982  
 Nov  1,079,923     Nov  1,529,635     Nov  1,223,252  
 Dec  1,230,525     Dec  1,523,426     Dec  1,407,155

Looking at trends over time, gun sales always spike around the
holidays (my first gun was a Christmas gift). But notice how
the Nov-Dec spike in gunsales continued to Apr 2009. That Nov
2008 economic stimulus gives me hope for change, at least in the
firearms sector of the economy.

 

[zxcvbob]

Nobody knows for sure. (God bless America!)

 

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Nobody knows for sure.

Nor should they ever know. That way, in a round-up, they can never be sure they got them all - if any!

Woody

 

[dec41971]

A lot. A whole lot. There are 4 more guns in our house than people. If that says anything about this, it accounts for all my anti or luke warm friends.

 

[oldfool]

last I heard there were ~300 million guns in the USA
but they are all owned by one little old lady in Pasadena, who only shoots them on Sunday
(must be true, surely no politician would want to anger 80 million people of voting age, even in California ?)

 

[Zoogster]

The actual number of firearms in the US at any time is a guess. I like to keep it that way. The only way to get an "accurate" count is through gun registration or creation of a registry database.

Partially true.


The ATF has given the exact number of firearms sold through an FFL in any given year several times.

All manufacturers in the US, or legal importers are also known to the ATF, and the exact number of firearms produced in a given year.

This means they can determine how many firearms were made in the USA, and can then determine how many entered the civilian market with decent accuracy by subtracting military and foreign sales (and export requires yet more approval so they have that figure as well.)


The only legal firearms they don't know about being created are those built by individuals for personal use and exempt from licensing requirements as a result.


So even without complete registration of specific owners, the number of firearms entering the civilian market in a given year is known.


So the data is not as absolute as for NFA items, which they track specifically and create exact and detailed reports on, but is still fairly close.

 

[JWF III]

So the data is not as absolute as for NFA items,

They (BATFE) has even admitted to not knowing exactly how many NFA items are out there. They had a problem years ago with their records keeping. There were a bunch of records lost aparantly.

Be sure to keep close track of your paperwork for NFA items.

Wyman

 

[Carl N. Brown]

That "lost my guns in a tragic boating accident" is just a lame excuse.

All my guns with no 4473 (gifts or FTF used) were abducted by UFO aliens.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

Source on DGU figures

Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig, "Guns in America:
National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms",
DOJ NIJ Research in Brief, Published: May 1997.

On the basis of data from the
Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey
(NCVS) data, one would conclude that defensive uses are rare
indeed, about 108,000 per year. But other surveys yield far
higher estimates of the number of DGUs. Most notable has been a
much publicized estimate of 2.5 million DGUs, based on data from
a 1994 telephone survey conducted by Florida State University
professors Gary Kleck and Mark Gertz. (Kleck, G., and M. Gertz,
"Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense
With a Gun," Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 86(1):150-187,
Fall 1995.) The 2.5 million figure has been picked up by the press
and now appears regularly in newspaper articles, letters to the
editor, editorials, and even Congressional Research Service briefs
for public policymakers.

The NSPOF survey is quite similar to the Kleck and Gertz
instrument and provides a basis for replicating their estimate.
Each of the respondents in the NSPOF was asked the question,
"Within the past 12 months, have you yourself used a gun, even if
it was not fired, to protect yourself or someone else, or for the
protection of property at home, work, or elsewhere?" Answers in
the affirmative were followed with "How many different times did
you use a gun, even if it was not fired, to protect yourself or
property in the past 12 months?" Negative answers to the first
DGU question were followed by "Have you ever used a gun to defend
yourself or someone else?" (emphasis in original). Each
respondent who answered yes to either of these DGU questions was
asked a sequence of 30 additional questions concerning the most
recent defensive gun use in which the respondent was involved,
including the respondent's actions with the gun, the location and
other circumstances of the incident, and the respondent's
relationship to the perpetrator.

Forty-five respondents reported a defensive gun use in 1994
against a person (exhibit 7). Given the sampling weights, these
respondents constitute 1.6 percent of the sample and represent
3.1 million adults. Almost half of these respondents reported
multiple DGUs during 1994, which provides the basis for
estimating the 1994 DGU incidence at 23 million. This surprising
figure is caused in part by a few respondents reporting large
numbers of defensive gun uses during the year; for example, one
woman reported 52!

A somewhat more conservative NSPOF estimate is shown in the
column of exhibit 7 that reflects the application of the criteria
used by Kleck and Gertz to identify "genuine" defensive gun uses.
Respondents were excluded on the basis of the most recent DGU
description for any of the following reasons: the respondent did
not see a perpetrator; the respondent could not state a specific
crime that was involved in the incident; or the respondent did
not actually display the gun or mention it to the perpetrator.

Applying those restrictions leaves 19 NSPOF respondents (0.8
percent of the sample), representing 1.5 million defensive users.
This estimate is directly comparable to the well-known estimate
of Kleck and Gertz, shown in the last column of exhibit 7. While
the NSPOF estimate is smaller, it is statistically plausible that
the difference is due to sampling error. Inclusion of multiple
DGUs reported by half of the 19 NSPOF respondents increases the
estimate to 4.7 million DGUs.

Cook and Ludwig are heavily invested in the NCVS estimate of
108,000 but also note that few of the NCVS sample are ever asked
if they used a gun defensively, but everyone in the NSPOF sample
were asked.

John Lott's 2002 survey used "non-threatening" screening questions
and got 2.1 million DGU with 92 to 95% non-shooting, or 105,000
shooting DGU. More than NCVS but less than NSDS or NSPOF.
Larry Southwick estimated 59,000 shooting DGU. Gary Kleck
has estimated 80,000 to 160,000 shooting DGU. Some of the researchers
like Hemenway or McDowall count only shooting DGU, while John Donohue
only recognizes the FBI UCR figure of ~170 justifiable homicides by
shooting as adjudicated in police crime report (ignoring the fact that
eventually seven times that number of homicides are adjudicated as
justifiable by the legal system, that self defense woundings outnumber
justifiable homicides and the vast majority of DGU do not involve shooting.)

 

[OcelotZ3]

Quote:
Sam1911 wrote: "The most interesting point to me is that, in Dec. of '98 there were 871,000 checks performed. 10 years later, in Dec. of 2008, there were over 1.5 MILLION checks performed. Almost a 300% increase."

Uh...........I think you need to add some clarification there Sam.
How 'bout "almost a 200% increase? Whoops. Ahh, math. Can't live with it, can't shoot it.

How about "almost a 100% increase"?