BigFatKen
Member
This was an answer on Quora.com There are daily questions that are twisted around to pro-2A to try to get a reason to ban guns. Please move this to the correct sub-forum if needed. The last answer I posted from Quora was well received. There is no direct URL. quora.com
QUESTION:
There are approximately 100m gun owners in America out of a population of 323m. Imagine if the other 223m voted unanimously and consistently for people who promised to repeal the Second Amendment. What would happen?
Alfred Montestruc, Hold that a right of self-defense is fundamental.
Updated Mon
https://www.quora.com/#
Well, first we need to get some things straight.
We have a population of (U.S. Population (2018) - Worldometers) 327,048,542.
The first major issue I am going to point out is that children can neither legally control guns, nor vote.
America’s Age Profile Told through Population Pyramids
Children are legally defined as under 18 years of age.
By a quick look at the graph, children are approximatly 20+20+ 20+ 20*(3/5) or about 72 million people who neither vote, nor posess guns. Technically children can own guns, but legally their parents or guardians are responsible for them. So subtract 72 million from 327 million leaves 255 million.
Then we have the issue that felons in the USA are not allowed to vote in many jurisdictions, or legally own guns in most jurisdictions, though many in fact do.
Study estimates U.S. population with felony convictions - UGA Today
People with felony convictions more broadly account for 8 percent of the overall population
So 8% of the overall population of 327 million is 26.16 million. Assume 50% of them cannot vote as an approximation of the effect, leaving 13.08 million.
Subtracting from non-children leaves ~241.9 million potential voters.
Note also that non-citizen immigrants, legal or not, cannot legally vote.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/...
From slide 3 of the link 12.9% of the total population are born outside the USA. From slide 11, 44% of the forign born population are naturalized citizens. So 7.224% of the population are immigrants who are not eligible to vote. 327 x .07224 = 23.62 million.
Subtracting them, we are left with 218.3 million potential eligible voters.
Factually legal gun owners tend to be more economically successful and better educated than non-gun owners.
This Is What the Modern Gun Owner Looks Like
Note that the % of gun owners rises with each step of income level. Note also that for the most part gun ownership rises with education.
My take is that college educated people with guns are going to be less willing to take part in a survey, as they are more likely to know that sometimes people call to case a house for burglery, and are more likely to decide not to participate.
Note also that “multi-racial” Americans are actually MORE likely than whites to own guns. 15% of multiracial people own both a handgun & longgun vs 13% of whites. Otherwise the number between whites & multiracial people are almost identical.
Note also that veterans are much more likely to be armed than non-veterans.
Edit: Using this data to try and detremine the actual number of Americans who own guns.
0.22 x 327 = 72 million, that is actual owners.
Now consider that Americans live in households.
U.S.: Number of households 1960-2017 | Statista
Per this link we have 126.2 million housholds.
Most typically guns are owned more often by the head of household.
1. The demographics of gun ownership
According to this 30% of adults own guns, 255 million x 0.30 = 76.5, rough agreement with above figure, and 42% of households have a gun, or 32 million households.
Further an additional 36% of adults state they can see themselves buying a gun in the future ( in addition to the 30% of adults) so 255 x 0.36=91.8 million.
Assume for sake of argument we have political support of 90% of gun owners and 80% of “could see themselves owning” .9x 76.5 + .8 x 91.8= ~ 142 of 218. ~ 65% of potential voters solidly support gun rights - a pretty solid majority. That is likely an underestimate.
END EDIT
So for the hypothetical 100 million gun owners of the question, you have a total population eligible to vote of about 218.3 million eligible to vote.
How many Americans actually vote?
United States presidential election, 2016 - Wikipedia
From this the total number of votes was 136.67 million.
It is well known that NRA members and pro-gun voters tend to actually show up at the polls and vote far more often than anti-gun people. Also polls tend to show very strong support of a right to bear arms.
Americans in Agreement With Supreme Court on Gun Rights
A clear majority of the U.S. public -- 73% -- believes the Second Amendment to the Constitution guarantees the rights of Americans to own guns. And almost 7 out of 10 Americans are opposed to a law that would make the possession of a handgun illegal, except by the police.
I don’t think you could win a national election.
Edit:
It would never be an issue for a national election anyway. Our system does not allow national referendums.
Purely on the up and up you would need to amend the constitution. That requires a near consensus, as 1/4 +1 of all state legislatures can block it (you would get much more than half) and to even start you need 2/3 of each house of congress, and that will not happen.
Furthermore, strident over the top gun bans are very unpopular in the USA.
You can get supposed popularity for gun control, but only if the poll taker words the question carefully.
Media Mostly Silent on 2nd Amendment Repeal Poll Results
A straight up poll on repeal of the second amendment could only get 21% in favor (one in five Americans).
There's not a 'snowflake's chance in hell' of repealing the Second Amendment
"We can't even get Congress to pass a law banning bump stocks," Winkler wrote. "We can't get Congress to mandate universal background checks. And Stevens thinks 2/3s of Congress will vote to repeal the 2A? And 3/4 of the states will ratify such an amendment? Nonsense."
Nonsense on stilts by circus clowns.
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Upvote · 818
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William Bransford
Aug 20 · 77 upvotes including Alfred Montestruc
Your impeccable logic and array of evidence make this discussion a one sided battle of wits to which your opponent has neglected to bring a weapon. Thank you for stating the case so clearly and eloquently.
QUESTION:
There are approximately 100m gun owners in America out of a population of 323m. Imagine if the other 223m voted unanimously and consistently for people who promised to repeal the Second Amendment. What would happen?
Alfred Montestruc, Hold that a right of self-defense is fundamental.
Updated Mon
https://www.quora.com/#
Well, first we need to get some things straight.
We have a population of (U.S. Population (2018) - Worldometers) 327,048,542.
The first major issue I am going to point out is that children can neither legally control guns, nor vote.
America’s Age Profile Told through Population Pyramids
Children are legally defined as under 18 years of age.
By a quick look at the graph, children are approximatly 20+20+ 20+ 20*(3/5) or about 72 million people who neither vote, nor posess guns. Technically children can own guns, but legally their parents or guardians are responsible for them. So subtract 72 million from 327 million leaves 255 million.
Then we have the issue that felons in the USA are not allowed to vote in many jurisdictions, or legally own guns in most jurisdictions, though many in fact do.
Study estimates U.S. population with felony convictions - UGA Today
People with felony convictions more broadly account for 8 percent of the overall population
So 8% of the overall population of 327 million is 26.16 million. Assume 50% of them cannot vote as an approximation of the effect, leaving 13.08 million.
Subtracting from non-children leaves ~241.9 million potential voters.
Note also that non-citizen immigrants, legal or not, cannot legally vote.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/...
From slide 3 of the link 12.9% of the total population are born outside the USA. From slide 11, 44% of the forign born population are naturalized citizens. So 7.224% of the population are immigrants who are not eligible to vote. 327 x .07224 = 23.62 million.
Subtracting them, we are left with 218.3 million potential eligible voters.
Factually legal gun owners tend to be more economically successful and better educated than non-gun owners.
This Is What the Modern Gun Owner Looks Like
Note that the % of gun owners rises with each step of income level. Note also that for the most part gun ownership rises with education.
My take is that college educated people with guns are going to be less willing to take part in a survey, as they are more likely to know that sometimes people call to case a house for burglery, and are more likely to decide not to participate.
Note also that “multi-racial” Americans are actually MORE likely than whites to own guns. 15% of multiracial people own both a handgun & longgun vs 13% of whites. Otherwise the number between whites & multiracial people are almost identical.
Note also that veterans are much more likely to be armed than non-veterans.
Edit: Using this data to try and detremine the actual number of Americans who own guns.
0.22 x 327 = 72 million, that is actual owners.
Now consider that Americans live in households.
U.S.: Number of households 1960-2017 | Statista
Per this link we have 126.2 million housholds.
Most typically guns are owned more often by the head of household.
1. The demographics of gun ownership
According to this 30% of adults own guns, 255 million x 0.30 = 76.5, rough agreement with above figure, and 42% of households have a gun, or 32 million households.
Further an additional 36% of adults state they can see themselves buying a gun in the future ( in addition to the 30% of adults) so 255 x 0.36=91.8 million.
Assume for sake of argument we have political support of 90% of gun owners and 80% of “could see themselves owning” .9x 76.5 + .8 x 91.8= ~ 142 of 218. ~ 65% of potential voters solidly support gun rights - a pretty solid majority. That is likely an underestimate.
END EDIT
So for the hypothetical 100 million gun owners of the question, you have a total population eligible to vote of about 218.3 million eligible to vote.
How many Americans actually vote?
United States presidential election, 2016 - Wikipedia
From this the total number of votes was 136.67 million.
It is well known that NRA members and pro-gun voters tend to actually show up at the polls and vote far more often than anti-gun people. Also polls tend to show very strong support of a right to bear arms.
Americans in Agreement With Supreme Court on Gun Rights
A clear majority of the U.S. public -- 73% -- believes the Second Amendment to the Constitution guarantees the rights of Americans to own guns. And almost 7 out of 10 Americans are opposed to a law that would make the possession of a handgun illegal, except by the police.
I don’t think you could win a national election.
Edit:
It would never be an issue for a national election anyway. Our system does not allow national referendums.
Purely on the up and up you would need to amend the constitution. That requires a near consensus, as 1/4 +1 of all state legislatures can block it (you would get much more than half) and to even start you need 2/3 of each house of congress, and that will not happen.
Furthermore, strident over the top gun bans are very unpopular in the USA.
You can get supposed popularity for gun control, but only if the poll taker words the question carefully.
Media Mostly Silent on 2nd Amendment Repeal Poll Results
A straight up poll on repeal of the second amendment could only get 21% in favor (one in five Americans).
There's not a 'snowflake's chance in hell' of repealing the Second Amendment
"We can't even get Congress to pass a law banning bump stocks," Winkler wrote. "We can't get Congress to mandate universal background checks. And Stevens thinks 2/3s of Congress will vote to repeal the 2A? And 3/4 of the states will ratify such an amendment? Nonsense."
Nonsense on stilts by circus clowns.
12.8k Views · View Upvoters · View Sharers
Upvote · 818
Share · 3
William Bransford
Aug 20 · 77 upvotes including Alfred Montestruc
Your impeccable logic and array of evidence make this discussion a one sided battle of wits to which your opponent has neglected to bring a weapon. Thank you for stating the case so clearly and eloquently.
