The heart of the '04 election

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greyhound

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I think Andrew Sullivan is spot on in his observation about the central issue in the election, and why Bush can't take it for granted...

www.andrewsullivan.com


THE 9/11 ELECTION: I keep getting emails like the following:

"If any of the Democrats want to win, they will need to get my vote. I understand that this sort of statement will ring of self-grandeur in such a way that it may dissuade you from reading further, but consider this:
Unlike in your email of the day, I knew no one who died in September 11th. But nonetheless, I consider myself in many ways a "September 11th Republican." That is, before September 11th, I was a passionate Democrat. I voted for Clinton twice, campaigned on behalf of Al Gore (despite the fact that the man had no personal charisma). And in my heart, I guess I sort of want to be a Democrat, primarily because all of my friends are, and I want them to like me. And I want to think of myself as a caring humanitarian (which embodies liberalism at its best) rather than a calculated realist. But I can't. Not after September 11th. Not with the raving lunacy that has captured the Democratic party. Not when National Security is considered dispensable, if considered at all. Not when the Democrats fault George Bush for creating French obstruction. Not when the Democrats secretly applaud American deaths because it proves George Bush is "wrong." Not for a party that hates the South, the West, anything not New York (I'm from New York, so I can say that) or San Francisco, or anyone who feels proud flying the American flag. And above all else, not for a party that panders to the protesters who waive signs blaming "the Zionists" for the world's ills. No. This former Democrat, this September 11th Republican, will vote for George Bush."


Now I'm not sure how widespread this feeling is, but I have little doubt that the key issue in the next election will be a relatively simple one: do you approve or disapprove of the transformation of American foreign policy in the wake of 9/11? Iraq will be factored into that, but I don't think trouble there will necessarily sink the president for one simple reason. The issue next November will not be: were we wrong to go after Saddam? It will be: what would either candidate do now? How do we maintain pressure on the threats that beset us? Do we decide that Bush's policy is fundamentally mistaken, that we are not as much at risk as we thought, that we can return to what John Kerry has called a "law enforcement" approach to terror, rather than outright warfare against both terrorism and its sponsoring states? Or do we stick with the guy who led us in those terrible post-9/11 months and won our trust at the time? Maybe memories will have faded by then - but I still think they won't have faded enough for a Dean-style isolationism or Kerry-style legalism to do well. This presidential election will be the first since 9/11. It will be about 9/11. And it will be critical.
 
I think Mr. Sullivan is correct, in that foreign policy in general, and national security policy in particular, will be a key, if not the key issue in 2004. While I think there are many things Team Bush hasn't done everything I think they should to make the homeland secure (how about doing a better job controlling the border for a start?), they've done a hell of a lot better, and I believe will continue to do better, than any Democrat now running.

The Dems can whine all they want about unilateralism and how we've annoyed the French, etc, but the fact remains that you don't win hockey games by playing on your end of the ice and you don't win wars by sitting back and waiting for the enemy to attack you.

The Democrats really, really haven't been credible on national security since LBJ, and for certain there aren't any Harry Trumans or John Kennedys in the party today, with the possible exception of Zell Miller, and he's retiring. The Dems have a much better chance of winning when national security isn't a major issue. If the Berlin Wall had been standing in 1992, does anyone out there honestly think Clinton would have beaten Bush 41?
 
Color me a swing voter.....I'm registered as a Repub, but I try as much to vote my conscience and beliefs rather than party line (last local election I voted more for Constitution Party candidates than Rs). I'm willing to listen to any party, especially as I'm not too thrilled with certain aspects of Bush policies, and the one thing that I hear from the Dems is that Bush is doing it wrong, screwing up, lying, etc. That's all well and good, but they spend so much time harping about how Bush is the reason things are so bad, and exactly what he's done wrong, that I can't hear what they plan to do to make it better, especially in the realm of security. That kind of plan doesn't win votes.
 
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