lol. I just ate Ramen and I'm looking at cases of ammo that are almost 10 years old and boxes of reloading gear and components I've never even opened.
The only thing I would change is I wish I had bought more when it was "cheap".
Why aren't companies rising to meet the ammo demand?
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The only thing I would change is I wish I had bought more when it was "cheap".
I think the ammo shortage will never end. supplies will go up and more will be on the shelves but guys here are saying they did not stock up enough and will do it as it comes available. then you have guys who will not be satisfied until they buy every live round in the world at 70 years of age. the govt might be making it harder for Russian ammo to come here and if the govt did not ban norinco products there would be no shortage
I believe that was my whole point. That at current demand levels, backorder levels, and production levels, we should be estimating a return to "normal" in years, not months. 1 year at least. 1.5 if we are lucky. Probably more like 2 years. Even in a small population state like mine, and using ridiculously low demand ratios such as 10% of the gun owning population looking for ammo now (realistic figures?...try 65 or 70 or 75%)...even at 10% it still ended up being 5 months, or 1 month if I calculated an estimated production of all .22LR makers in the US at 20 million rounds per day produced. That 1 month, if I up the demand to 70%, becomes 7 months of demand before everyone in my state gets 3 boxes of 50 .22LR. The rest of you with populations 3, 4, or 10 times the population of my state--which pretty much means the rest of you in the US--are looking at 7 months times whatever population percentage you have greater than Mississippi. Florida...you've got 10 times the population of my state, but you still get the same cheesy average of 8000 boxes of .22LR per day that my state gets. 8000 boxes is 20,000,000 (20 Million Rounds Per day of estimated .22LR US production), divided into 50 rounds per box (400,000 boxes) divided into 50 states (8000 boxes per state, per day). If citizens buy the Walmart limit of 3 boxes per day its 2666.6 people who buy .22LR per day in your state. At an estimate I'd say Florida has 5 million gun owners. That could be low. This chart says roughly 25% of people in Florida own guns. http://usliberals.about.com/od/Elec...s-As-Percentage-Of-Each-States-Population.htm I'll assume that a cheesy 10% of these 5 million people are looking for .22LR ammo right now. 500,000 people. (How many people own .22's? A lot..so this estimate is probably wayyyy low.) At 2666 people per day getting 3 boxes of .22LR, it will take 187 days to get that 10% 3 boxes. 6 months. Now figure it at a more realistic demand level like most all gun owners in Florida wanting ammo right now. Peel off 40 percent who stockpiled, hoarded, or prepared for Y2K, Red Dawn and Dec 21, 2012 and you probably still have 60% of gun owning Floridians looking for .22 ammo. Could be an over estimate, but even if it is, it still means a whole LOT of people want .22LR. Probably around a million or so. To get them all THREE BOXES of 50 rounds .22LR could take them 2 or 3 years. 187 days times 60% versus my cheesy 10% estimate. 6 months times 6. 36 months. Maybe.
Since centerfire ammo takes more time to make and is more involved (adding primers and such) the production levels are lower. At least that is my assumption. So figure a lot lower than 20 million rounds per day. Still the same 50 round boxes. Still the same 50 states in the Union.
This is now my second or third time to try and explain this concept. I'm not going thru every state in the union. I'm done. If some of you get it, fine. If some of you aren't following the logic by now, then you never will. If some of you don't agree with the logic, then we'll just have to wait and see. Apply it to your own states using all kinds of different brands of ammo. It should apply to all of them. But I'm done trying to point out simple logic here. If the production levels I'm using are wrong, then my assumptions are wrong. So if someone wants to attack me, find the actual amount of ammo produced per caliber per year in the US. That's where I will be wrong, because I freely admit that I Do Not Know how much .22LR, 9mm or .45ACP is produced in this country per year. So find out how many millions of rounds that is. If you find out I'm too high in my estimates, say so. But if you find out I'm close, or if I've underestimated, then point that out too.
If I am right about the production levels, then I think I'm giving a realistic time frame on what most of us should expect.
That's it. I'm done.
Ignition Override
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joeschmoe:
With surplus 7.62x54R still pretty cheap, are you or many other people going to buy some spam cans of it, Just Because of the Price, if you don't already have some?
Although my Russian MN 44s were not at all accurate with surplus Bulgarian (and the rifles were sold), a couple of spam cans might be nice for the long term, along with a better 91/30.
With surplus 7.62x54R still pretty cheap, are you or many other people going to buy some spam cans of it, Just Because of the Price, if you don't already have some?
Although my Russian MN 44s were not at all accurate with surplus Bulgarian (and the rifles were sold), a couple of spam cans might be nice for the long term, along with a better 91/30.
Is she drunk?
No. But if I had anything that fired that round I'm sure I would already be sitting on several cans. I'm not shopping in this current panic.
Queen_of_Thunder
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Wonder what the impact on ammo supply would be if no ammo was delivered to such states as CA,MA,CO,ILL or any other state with gun restrictions.
This has been answered a few times over and has since wandered away from the op. Done.
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