Will the AR be replaced (in the private sector) anytime soon?

[Balrog]

I am curious what everyone thinks. Right now, ARs are very popular, but with new rifles coming out like the Bushmaster ACR and the FN SCAR, will the AR eventually be replaced by newer designs?

 

[Kwanger]

Maybe at some point.....but I think it will be many many years into the future. Also, because the AR platform itself is constantly evolving, it is likely to keep or surpass pace with other designs, IMO.

 

[jpwilly]

The basic design is so modular and easy to upgrade that it has become the swiss army knife of rifles / carbines. While it's not the answer for everyone the options out there can accomodate most peoples needs save for being the most PC choice.

 

[TexasRifleman]

They have been asking that about the 1911 since.... well..... 1912

There are just SO many of them out there it would be hard to imagine them going away.

 

[Balrog]

They have been asking that about the 1911 since.... well..... 1912

Probably right, but the 1911 occupies a smaller share of the market than it once did.

 

[Tirod]

The 1911 craze is still going on in it's 25th year more or less, and a lot of that development took place in the 70's. It will take that long for the SCAR, etc to be in production and have cheaply available government parts to establish it or any other rifle as a leader ahead of the AR.

This year's carbine trials will probably anoint another handful of Tier One makers to the status Colt, FN, GM Saginaw, and H&R as military suppliers, along with Sabre Defence. It's going to upset some egos, but the single source contract system was an anomaly. There will be multiple suppliers in the future. The government hasn't given up on the AR yet.

That means it's going to be even longer for something else to come around. Maybe when we can get bargain bin XCR's for $599 - that have cheap LPK's or non milspec barrels.

We'll get the hucksters along with the good, too, be careful what you wish for.

 

[GunsBeerFreedom]

The reason that the 1911 has lost some of it's market is because there are pistols that are just as good for less money (I'm about to be lynched aren't I?). Not so with the AR. Only AK's come close as far as prices go and while I love mine MORE than any AR, they have certain issues that will relegate them to 2nd place.

 

[Tommygunn]

I just bought a Sig 556 earlier this year. It has some features the AR should have, piston, bolt lock-up with two lugs as opposed to the AR pattern. NO gas key!
While I like it a lot I don't think it's going to replace the AR. It's heavier. It has a picatinny rail but it's bolted on the top as opposed to my Bushmaster M4orgery which has the rail integral with the receiver (a more secure design).
Also, I don't think the Sig is quit as adaptable.
I think the AR is going to be around for a long time.

 

[Jim Watson]

Replace? No.

I think the new models are selling well to people who swallow the advertising or just want something different.

 

[Mr.Davis]

The AR is compelling because of its unique history. It fires a readily available, inexpensive cartridge. Now that the patent protection on this military design has expired, over 50 companies can make cross-compatible products on a tested, recognized platform. The modular design is obviously a major attraction to hobbyists who can learn a lot about a single platform that can be used for dozens of unique tasks.

Since the new designs out there are still covered by patent protection, and offer less ability to customize, I'd say it'll be decades before the AR platform really starts to be replaced by SCAR/ACR/XCR type rifles.

 

[hso]

Replaced as the most popular civilian carbine/rifle? Probably not for a long time considering the number of off the shelf customizing options out there for the AR and the price compared to newer designs/formats. I guess the basic AR and AK will dominate the civilian market for another decade after the adoption by the military of some other non-AR based carbine/rifle.

 

[Hatterasguy]

Probably not. Major leaps in small arms development are usualy centered around wars, and right now were not in any large enough wars to push for such development.

The AR is probably going to be around for another 100 years if not longer.

I'll never buy one though, I don't care for the design.

 

[NG VI]

I think Hatterasguy has it right, without any major leaps in firearms technology, the AR is going to stay right where it is. By major I mean something along the lines of doubling the range, power, enabling a 3"+- trajectory for six hundred yards, all without increasing recoil any meaningful amount.

I think the AR is going to be with us for a very long time.

 

[Cromlech]

People often stick with what they know and/or love. Many civilian shooters weren't always civilians, and even those that were might just have a hankering for military (current or ex) hardware. People still use Mosin-Nagant/Mauser/Springfield/Lee Enfield rifles for more than just nostalgia. They just 'work', they are battle-proven, there are accessories and manuals, and magazines/spares widely available.

I'm not sure when the first (Colt?) AR-15s were put onto the civilian market (50's or 60's?), but I doubt that the American gun owners of the time all rushed out to replace their Garands/Springfields/Shotguns/Lever Actions or whatever it was that they had.

 

[Hatterasguy]

I think Hatterasguy has it right, without any major leaps in firearms technology, the AR is going to stay right where it is. By major I mean something along the lines of doubling the range, power, enabling a 3"+- trajectory for six hundred yards, all without increasing recoil any meaningful amount.

I think the AR is going to be with us for a very long time

I don't think we will see a replacement until their is a major shift in military doctrine and that can only be brought about by a large war. The last major shift happend at the end of WW2, before that it was the Civil War.


Either way even after that shift the AR will still stick around. Look at the 03's, Garand's, and M14's. They are all still popular, just because the military stops using them doesn't mean civilians stop buying them.

 

[DMK]

I think the analogy comparing the 1911 to the AR15 is a good one. Another gun would have a long way to go to live up to these two.

What other gun is made by so many different companies in the same basic design?

Colt SAA single action revolvers are the only other ones I can think of, except for maybe Mauser action rifles, but they are all pretty different from each other.

 

[Welding Rod]

I think it will retain its dominance until there is a change in ammo away from the metalic-cased percusion-primer fired cartridge and/or the simple metal projectile.

 

[FMJMIKE]

As long as the US Military uses AR-15s they will remain very popular. Many people like to use what the Military uses.

 

[Hatterasguy]

What other gun is made by so many different companies in the same basic design?

Browning hi power, FN Fal, and AK47.

The AR is good but its not used by over 70 countries, and its nick name is not "the right arm of the free world". It also hasn't marched around the world like the AK has; also it seems like damn near every country in the world has made AK's at one time or another.


Remember the AR is big really only in this country, no one else uses them.

 

[Avenger29]

I'm not sure when the first (Colt?) AR-15s were put onto the civilian market (50's or 60's?), but I doubt that the American gun owners of the time all rushed out to replace their Garands/Springfields/Shotguns/Lever Actions or whatever it was that they had.

The AR was available to the civilian market about the same time it was available to the military. There are advertisements for it, too.

Of course, at the same time you could by a shiny new AR with that shiny new gun price tag attached, you could get a milsurp, decent condition, Garand, Springfield, or Mauser rifles by the barrel for a heck of a lot cheaper. And they were the proven rifles of the period. So, no, people didn't replace their rifles with the AR. Just like today, few are replacing the now proven and common ARs with SCARs, XCRs, etc. Undoubtedly, we will eventually move towards the newer generation rifles. I just don't think it's going to be anytime soon.

The AR is good but its not used by over 70 countries, and its nick name is not "the right arm of the free world". It also hasn't marched around the world like the AK has; also it seems like damn near every country in the world has made AK's at one time or another.

Is the FAL still used by over 70 countries?

Remember the AR is big really only in this country, no one else uses them.

I know they are our hat, but doesn't Canada count as someone else? What about the other countries on this list? In use by 15 NATO member countries doesn't count? (the numbers in brackets are source links for wikipedia, I'm not taking the time to edit that out)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M16_rifle#Production_and_users

* Afghanistan[33]
* Australia[34]
* Bangladesh (Used by Bangladesh military, Special Forces and Counter Terrorism Units)[35]
* Barbados[36]
* Belize[36]
* Bolivia[36]
* Brazil[36]
* Brunei[36]
* Cambodia[36]
* Cameroon[36]
* Canada: C7 variant is used by the Canadian Armed Forces.[37]
* Chile[36]
* Democratic Republic of the Congo[36]
* Costa Rica[38]
* Denmark[36]
* Dominican Republic[36]
* East Timor[39]
* Ecuador[36]
* El Salvador[36]
* Estonia[40]
* Fiji[36]
* Gabon[36]
* Ghana[36]
* Greece[36]
* Grenada[36]
* Guatemala[36]
* Haiti[36]
* Indonesia[36]
* Iraq: Iraqi army.[41]
* Israel[42]
* Jamaica[36]
* Jordan[36]
* Republic of Korea (Manufactured under license by Daewoo)[36]
* Lebanon[36]
* Lesotho[36]
* Lithuania (M16A2 used by National Defence Volunteer Forces)
* Malaysia[36]
* Mexico[36]
* Morocco[36]
* New Zealand[36]
* Nepal[43]
* Netherlands: C7 variant is used by the Royal Netherlands Army.[37]
* Nicaragua[36]
* Nigeria[36]
* Oman[36]
* Panama[36]
* Peru[36]
* Philippines (manufactured under license by Elisco Tool and Manufacturing)[36]
* Qatar[36]
* Senegal[44]
* Somalia[36]
* South Africa[36]
* Sri Lanka[36]
* Thailand[36]
* Tunisia[36]
* Turkey[36]
* Uganda[36]
* United Arab Emirates[36]
* United Kingdom The M16A1 and M16A2 were used by the UK Special Forces. But have been largely replaced by the C8.[45]
* United States[46]
* Uruguay[36]
* Vietnam[36]

 

[gondorian]

No, it receives huge benefits from network externalities. It has an enormous and well entrenched market, and it is here to stay for a long time.

 

[smince]

Will the AR be replaced (in the private sector) anytime soon?

I replaced my AR's with AK's and my 1911's with Glock's

 

[DMK]

Quote:
What other gun is made by so many different companies in the same basic design?

Browning hi power, FN Fal, and AK47.

Well the question is about the private sector. For sale in this country DSA is the only company that makes new civilian FALs and Izmash/Saiga is the only company that makes new AKs. The rest of the AKs and FALs are assembled from surplus parts mostly on US made receivers. They aren't brand new rifles built from raw materials.

OTOH, there are multiple manufacturers of 1911s and AR15s made from raw materials and not reliant on a stream of surplus parts.

The HP is a good example, forgot about that one. But who makes new HPs anymore?

 

[Tirod]

Considering the US is the major nation of privately owned firearms, I'm not real sure the FN can be touted as such a big deal. It's not privately owned much anywhere else except America, and certainly not in the numbers AR's are owned.

Being previously issued as a weapon doesn't mean those citizens are even allowed to own weapons at all. Kingdoms, People's Democracies, and such are funny like that.

If there has been one thing slightly miscommunicated in this thread, it's really just how much the AR will come to dominate the American firearms industry in the next 20 years. Deer and hog hunters are seeing the tip of the iceberg lately as they explore new calibers and acquire another venerated battle rifle as a preferred hunting rig. Precision shooters understand the simplicity of the design and why the lug lock up and lack of piston are superior to old fashioned two lug '50's operating rod designs.

I'll go so far as to say the Direct Impingement system has probably been the most successful military design in history precisely because of it's simplicity and lack of parts that will wear and fail. It certainly has been the longest issued type of battle rifle in American history. In an age of continually accelerating technology, having gone from the introduction of the transistor to the Iphone, from the standard six cylinder three speed auto with no air to the standard eight cylinder automatic with all wheel drive and climate control, from cookie cutter ranch houses to expansive McMansions - we still use the AR and the Stoner design.

Maybe there is something right about it after all. (Hard to say coming from a former HK .308 owner.)

However it affects your taste, it's not going away. It's going to be around a lot more a lot longer.

 

[GRIZ22]

There are over 40 years of civilian ARs out there already. I don't think you will see them go away soon.