A couple of months ago, the Cabela's in Buda, TX had a fair amount - one entire endcap in the ammo section - for "reasonable" prices. (About $18 for 325 rounds of Federal). So I thought the supply was FINALLY getting back to normal.
Not so.
I've been to Cabela's twice since, and neither time have they had any rimfire other than .17 or .22Mag.
Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada.
Talked to a salesman, and same old story - where they used to be able to get it by the pallet, now - the supply is a trickle. This has been going on so long simple "supply and demand" does NOT explain it; either the ammo companies are lying when they say they're at full production, or someone is intercepting it before it ever hits the retail level. (Note that centerfire ammo is is good supply - 9mm, .45, .223, 7.62x39, .308, whatever; no problem getting it. BUT - prices ARE up.)
Hoarders? Again, this has been going on SO long that hoarders must be sitting on a MOUNTAIN of product; seriously, if production IS going full steam ahead - where the heck is it?
It is a Supply/Demand issue...
1. Following a "panic" ammo companies may add extra shifts, but not extra capacity because its not economical to do so. Once a panic ends, demand drops and excess production capacity becomes added overhead. Look at 9mm and other calibers which are now returning to "normalcy"
2. .22LR by its very nature is actually quite limited in production capacity. It's so cheap to make and sell that it makes no sense to reinvest in adding capacity as demand (up until recently) is quite low. Also, a line which produces handgun ammo can't just switch over and make .22lr. IIRC, it requires a dedicated line. You either have that or not.
3. Demand is high enough and prices low enough that people who don't need any .22lr will continue buying it. People who do need it will as well.
4. Because of a combination of (2) and (3), every single production unit of .22lr is already allocated to retailers and sold off immediately to customers, and therefor leading to bare shelves
5. From a consumer psychology standpoint, scarcity of .22lr begets even more hoarding behavior, prompting more bulk buying. Something that is routinely out of stock gets hoarded more often. Scarcity only adds demand. The "hoarders" are sitting on mountains of .22lr and buying more of it.
Ultimately, it comes back down to price. For whatever reason, the ammo industry has refused to raise prices to meet demand, maybe out of fear of offending gun owners? I don't know. But it's a logical solution because raising prices accomplishes two key things:
1. Reduces demand. If you're willing to spend $150/1000 rd, but $200/1000rd is too much, then your demand has diminished.
2. Improves stock. As demand drops, stocks of 22lr rise... rather quickly.
I predict, if ammo makers follow through with the above, 22LR will become plentiful within 3 months, with stocks being refilled in 4, and prices going back down to normal levels in 6 with healthy demand.
This should be done for every panic and price shock that happens to avoid long-term shortages.