.22lr MEGATHREAD

[45_auto]

This mess has lasted too long, and needs a qualified in depth investigation with some solid facts and plausible answers.

It's not that hard to figure out. Why would anyone need to waste money on an "in-depth investigation"?

In December of 2012, the US had a production capacity of 4.2 billion rounds of .22 annually. That's enough for every single living person in the country, from newborn to one foot in the grave, to buy 3,333 rounds every year. Obviously not every single living person bought 3,333 rounds, so there was plenty for all.

Now thanks to Sandy Hook, Obama, Feinstein, etc, a whole lot more people want .22 ammo. So let's say the ammo companies have doubled capacity, running 2 shifts, etc. Let's say that they are cranking out over twice their previous max, let's say 10,000,000,000 (10 billion) rounds annually.

That means 10,000,000,000 / 12 = 833,000,000 rounds per month

That's 833,000,000 / 4 = 208,333,333 rounds per week.

Wal-Mart has 3,796 Super Centers and Wal-Mart stores in the US. That means that if ALL the .22 ammo went only to Wal-Mart, each store would get:

208,333,333 / 3,796 = 54,000 rounds weekly.

That's about 2 cases (20 "bricks" or 20 "500 round bulk packs") per store per week.

Do you think it's possible that more than 20 people per week come into each Wal Mart looking for a brick of .22 ammo? Heck, around here that many come in the first HOUR every week! They would sell out the first few minutes of the week if they got 100% of DOUBLED annual production capacity.

And I would guess that ammo production capacity has NOT been doubled in the last year (I'm a manufacturing engineer - it takes a LOT longer than people think to expand facilities, acquire equipment, and hire and train employees).

Academy Sports, Cabelas, Dicks, Midway, shooting ranges, local gunshops, etc, all take their cut of the ammo production. I would be VERY surprised if Wal-Mart could corner 25% of production. But if they could, it would mean they would get about 5 bricks per week per store IF they could corner 25% of all .22 ammo. It's going to be a LONG time before demand is met and you see .22 bulk packs sitting on discount store shelves at reasonable prices.

 

[TennJed]

Yes, that is the easy way. More guns, more shooters, more, more, more,........

How about the facts, figures, you know,...... investigate. That's means a reasonable study of the situation. I would hate to believe, "All I know is what I read in the newspapers.", like Will Rogers jokingly stated many years ago.

I don't recall seeing this being checked out by a responsible organization. Are we to just sit back and say, "It's just business as usual." ?

Well it is simple math. Explain to me how, when the number of shooters rises dramatically in a short period of time along with the previous gun owners buying more do to panic, that wouldn't result in more consumption and stocking up? Again it is pretty simple, basic math.

 

[Vodoun da Vinci]

I have a couple of good friends in Scotland and we converse weekly. One is ex military and a sharpshooter...he has a little range and shoots .22lr. We were talking about me wanting to buy a H&K MP5 A5 .22 and I told him my greatest worry was not being able to feed it enough to really enjoy shooting it.

Apparently there is no shortage of .22lr anywhere in Scotland or Europe in general and it is common.

Maybe we should try and get some shipped to the US? I wonder how much I could bring back if I go for a visit?

VooDoo

 

[Gun Master]

.22 Ammo

I don't know where the documentation for the figures in post # 226 came from, but if it is correct, that's a lot of ammo, and where is it? This would support the need for a responsible inquiry.

Did you read posts # 217 & 219 ? Apparently there is plenty of .22 ammo in Uruguay.

Typically, Americans have not been afraid to ask questions, nor should they be discouraged from doing so.

Inquiring minds want to know, "Why can't I buy a box of .22 ammo ?"

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

I don't know where the documentation for the figures in post # 226 came from, but if it is correct, that's a lot of ammo, and where is it? This would support the need for a responsible inquiry.

No need for an inquiry. I can tell you EXACTLY where it's all at!

I've got it all stashed in a secret cave that only I know where it is!

"It's mine, you understand! Mine! All mine!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjB9jlDvUNM

 

[Gun Master]

OK, Chief ! I'll say it. "Uncle." You got me.

 

[TennJed]

I don't know where the documentation for the figures in post # 226 came from, but if it is correct, that's a lot of ammo, and where is it? This would support the need for a responsible inquiry.

Did you read posts # 217 & 219 ? Apparently there is plenty of .22 ammo in Uruguay.

Typically, Americans have not been afraid to ask questions, nor should they be discouraged from doing so.

Inquiring minds want to know, "Why can't I buy a box of .22 ammo ?"

with all do respect did you read the actual post in # 226. That is not really a lot of ammo. If ALL OF THE 22lr made would only supply walmart with 20 bricks a week (that is only 20 500rd boxes)? That is no other stores, no online merchants. Just Walmart and only 20 bricks (boxes) a week. Does that sound like a lot to you? Everyone I know is "on the lookout" for 22 because of this panic the BUYERS have created. Everybody I know will pick up a brick if they see it on the shelf for normal prices

Again, it is simple math, that is NOT a lot of ammo for the current buying market. Uruguay has a plenty of ammo for Uruguay's shooting habits. The poster that made the comment has 400 rounds and to him that is enough. That is not enough for a Saturday afternoon for a lot of people here.

Let do this the other way. Tell me how 5-20(boxes) bricks of 22lr per week is enough to supply all the people trying to buy it. How many people do you think ask the gun counter clerk in walmart if there is any 22? less than 5 people a week?

Simple math

 

[JohnKSa]

...that's a lot of ammo, and where is it? This would support the need for a responsible inquiry.

The figures are correct based on the research I've done.

The post you quoted explains very clearly where it's going and why there's no need for a responsible inquiry. The facts are plain. Even with the production doubled, it clearly takes very little effort on the part of the buying public to empty the supply chain as fast as it fills which ensures the shelves stay bare.

Until people calm down and stop promoting/prolonging the panic by spreading/repeating nutty conspiracy theories, things are not going to get better.

 

[alfon99]

Uruguay has a plenty of ammo for Uruguay's shooting habits. The poster that made the comment has 400 rounds and to him that is enough. That is not enough for a Saturday afternoon for a lot of people here.

Yeah, You're right about shooting habits. There is a lot of ammo because people don't buy much and it just piles up.

 

[Mike1234567]

Assuming 4.2 billion rds production per year is correct and every man, woman and child in the USA bought equal amounts of ammo then we could all buy about 13 rounds each.

4,200,000,000 / 320,000,000 = 13.125

 

[SFreed]

And 45 Auto has it. There really isn't anything else to it. No conspiracy, not because the government bought it all, not even because the manufacturers aren't making it. Anybody want to bet how many people in Uruguay or Scotland are sitting on 15,000 rounds? Probably not many. That's the problem we're facing now.

 

[Orion8472]

Old retired man gets 3,000 rounds of 22lr at Walmart

This morning, I wasn't feeling well, so went to get some Tussin DM. I decided to go over to the ammo counter [~7:00 am they put it out], and there was this old man who "is there all the time and has had 600K rounds at one time" was in line first. They brought out some M-22 boxes [1,000 each], and he got three of them. The other people ahead of me cleaned out the rest of the .22lr ammo. I left with nothing.

So, . . . if it is a matter of "being fair", how could they still allow "3 per box of .22lr" when it is a 1,000 round box? If it comes to large boxes of ammo, I would think that they wouldn't allow one person to buy 3 of them. I can see limiting them to one per customer, and 2 of another smaller box.

Just a small rant, really. I have enough for my purposes, but when I saw that, and when there was nothing left, I was a bit miffed.

I sure do wish that .22lr would become more plentiful soon so people don't show up in the mornings and take it all [those who have nothing else to do but show up at stores early]. Some of us still work for a living.

 

[texasgun]

And wanna bet that these 3k of 22LR are for sale on gunbroker 1hr after he bought them?

 

[Plan2Live]

The policy on how they handle that scenario varies store by store. The store I usually hit wouldn't allow that. The usual clerk would have insisted that such a large quantity be shared. But then our usual group is comprised of ladies and gentlemen. Every person in our usual group has stepped aside and let "newbies" go first or taken less so others could get some too. But again, we are a civil group.

I went in late one night and has an opportunity to buy 3 boxes of M-22 (would that be a cinder block in .22 lingo?) but only bought 1. I went back mid-morning the next day and they still had 2 left so I took one more. Karma will come back to you.

 

[Dirty Bob]

For me, .22LR has become a great gift for fellow gunnies. I tipped my friendly independent FFL 200 rounds of Remington after a recent transaction he helped with.

It is loosening up, a bit. I don't think the shortage can last forever

Regards,
Dirty Bob

 

[medalguy]

The shortage will last as long as old guys are standing in line, every morning, at any store to buy their "allotment" of ammo. When people stop buying at inflated prices on GB and elsewhere, production will match demand and prices will fall. Until then, capitalism rules.

 

[Mike1234567]

For me, .22LR has become a great gift for fellow gunnies. I tipped my friendly independent FFL 200 rounds of Remington after a recent transaction he helped with.

It is loosening up, a bit. I don't think the shortage can last forever

Regards,
Dirty Bob

I tipped mine a 525 round brick of CCI Blazer.

 

[Gun Master]

High Priced and / or Hard to Get .22 Ammo

This discussion is good! I believe most will agree the reason for the above is hoarding in the US. There seems to be no problem in Canada, Scotland, Western Europe, and Uruguay, from the reports on this thread.

Hoarding is the most logical answer.

Right ?

 

[Ignition Override]

Orion8472:
But what a life they have during retirement, waking up during sunrise and driving to Walmart several days a week.

Such a nice reward after a life of working.
May those sad old guys enjoy their retirement at the cash register. They probably can't even hit a target using iron sights.

 

[Mike1234567]

The flippers aren't "sad old guys". They're jerks of various ages. If they'd bought when finding ammo was easy and sold now for profit then fine. But to buy in times of crisis to make a quick buck is not fine in my book.

I hope this post doesn't get me another infraction but this is how I feel about flippers.

 

[Sam Cade]

Post #226 by Member 45_auto is a beautiful thing.

 

[basicblur]

But what a life they have during retirement, waking up during sunrise...

Huh?
I often don't go to bed before sunrise.

And yes, retirement is the life!

 

[Gun Master]

Answers ?

If the ammo manufacturers are going 24/7, and can't keep up the supply (including the hoarders, scalpers, etc.), it seems at least three possibilities may result :
1. Existing "Big Name" US ammo companies expand facilities.
2. New US ammo companies are formed.
3. Foreign ammo companies, existing and new, try to fill the gap.

Other viewers may have other ideas.

Please don't make negative comments, unless you have possible solutions. Let's let everybody have their say. It's just plain fair play, American and otherwise.

 

[RussB]

It's not that hard to figure out. Why would anyone need to waste money on an "in-depth investigation"?

In December of 2012, the US had a production capacity of 4.2 billion rounds of .22 annually. That's enough for every single living person in the country, from newborn to one foot in the grave, to buy 3,333 rounds every year. Obviously not every single living person bought 3,333 rounds, so there was plenty for all.

Now thanks to Sandy Hook, Obama, Feinstein, etc, a whole lot more people want .22 ammo. So let's say the ammo companies have doubled capacity, running 2 shifts, etc. Let's say that they are cranking out over twice their previous max, let's say 10,000,000,000 (10 billion) rounds annually.

That means 10,000,000,000 / 12 = 833,000,000 rounds per month

That's 833,000,000 / 4 = 208,333,333 rounds per week.

Wal-Mart has 3,796 Super Centers and Wal-Mart stores in the US. That means that if ALL the .22 ammo went only to Wal-Mart, each store would get:

208,333,333 / 3,796 = 54,000 rounds weekly.

That's about 2 cases (20 "bricks" or 20 "500 round bulk packs") per store per week.

Do you think it's possible that more than 20 people per week come into each Wal Mart looking for a brick of .22 ammo? Heck, around here that many come in the first HOUR every week! They would sell out the first few minutes of the week if they got 100% of DOUBLED annual production capacity.

And I would guess that ammo production capacity has NOT been doubled in the last year (I'm a manufacturing engineer - it takes a LOT longer than people think to expand facilities, acquire equipment, and hire and train employees).

Academy Sports, Cabelas, Dicks, Midway, shooting ranges, local gunshops, etc, all take their cut of the ammo production. I would be VERY surprised if Wal-Mart could corner 25% of production. But if they could, it would mean they would get about 5 bricks per week per store IF they could corner 25% of all .22 ammo. It's going to be a LONG time before demand is met and you see .22 bulk packs sitting on discount store shelves at reasonable prices.

54,000 rounds is actually just shy of 11 cases (5k per case)


108 brick per week per Walmart

 

[JohnKSa]

If the ammo manufacturers are going 24/7, and can't keep up the supply (including the hoarders, scalpers, etc.), it seems at least three possibilities may result :
1. Existing "Big Name" US ammo companies expand facilities.
2. New US ammo companies are formed.
3. Foreign ammo companies, existing and new, try to fill the gap.

None of these possibilities are real world/practical options as long as the demand spike is perceived to be temporary in nature.

No big name company is going to expand facilities knowing that when the demand spike goes away they will have to idle the expansion instead of being able to sell enough ammo to recoup the expansion costs.

No new companies will form based on temporary demand because the startup costs need to be amortized against the predicted sales. If the demand is perceived to be temporary, it would be financial suicide to start a company (a relatively permanent entity requiring permanent facilities and expensive specialized equipment) to meet a demand you expect to go away.

More or less the same deal with the foreign companies although, perhaps, to a lesser extent. They might be able to up production using temporary measures, as the domestic producers have done--in fact, it's likely that they have already done so. But past a point, they're in the same boat as the domestic producers. Expanding past a point requires significant investment--investment that would be suicidal if the demand that it's designed to meet goes away shortly after the investment is made.

108 brick per week per Walmart

Right. However, Wal-Mart is not the only company selling ammunition--not by a long shot.

There are easily another 1,000 big name sporting good store locations (Dicks, Cabelas, Gander Mountain, Bass Pro, Academy Sports, etc.) that sell ammunition as well as a number of high-volume online sellers.

There are also something like 60,000 FFLs in the U.S., of which at least a third (probably much more) sell ammunition.

What it amounts to is that the .22LR ammo made gets distributed to something like 25,000 ammo retailers--using very conservative estimates. When you do the math, it's easy to see why it only takes a relatively few determined people to keep the supply chain from refilling the shelves once they're empty.