.22lr MEGATHREAD

[SFreed]

You wanna know what I think is the main reason this "shortage" has lasted so long? It's simple, really. Progress and Technology. Think about it. Any of us who have lived through these shortages in the past, know what it was like. If you wanted it, you had to drive and find it. Now, you get an app on your smart phone to tell you who has what. If you found it, you didn't text all your friends, you called them when you got home. Technology has turned our world into a very small place, where instant gratification is the normal, and buying .22 ammo is a side business for everyone with a phone.

 

[JohnKSa]

If someone akin to Soros bought out an ammo company, the motive might be to tighten the supply chain.

Since there are numerous ammo companies, not just one, there would be no possible way for this theoretical person to "tighten the supply chain" unless he bought most of them.

And if something like that were to happen, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible to keep it a secret.

The main focus of last year's ammo panic was military and auto handgun cartridges.

Last year's ammo panic is the one that's still in progress but continuing to abate.

The main focus was inexpensive and common cartridges-INCLUDING .22LR.

It happens that the centerfire cartridges affected are also military/auto cartridges, but what was happening was that people were going crazy trying to buy as much ammo as they could. Naturally the most commonly used cartridges were the hardest hit.

 

[Sam1911]

Progress and Technology. Think about it. Any of us who have lived through these shortages in the past, know what it was like. If you wanted it, you had to drive and find it. Now, you get an app on your smart phone to tell you who has what. If you found it, you didn't text all your friends, you called them when you got home. Technology has turned our world into a very small place, where instant gratification is the normal, and buying .22 ammo is a side business for everyone with a phone.

Heck of a lot of truth in that. The ramifications of living in the information age never cease to confound and amaze and amuse. We certainly had runs on things in the past, but in 1983 if you wanted to leap into the frenzy and beat someone half to death for a Cabbage Patch doll, you had to grab your rolling pin and actually drive down to the toy store to join the riot. Nowadays, anyone wanting to get in on a good panic just has to click the mouse about four times and enter their credit card.

Changes everything by orders of magnitude.

 

[dook]

Since there are numerous ammo companies, not just one, there would be no possible way for him to "tighten the supply chain" unless he bought most of them.

And if something like that were to happen, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible to keep it a secret.

There are fewer ammo companies equipped to manufacture 22LR than centerfire cartridges, thus making the supply chain easier to tighten in that caliber.
In previous ammo squeezes, it was cartridges for military rifles and auto handguns that were hit, as they are non-hunting cartridges. Shotgun shells have remained farly plentiful.
"Keeping a secret" is really just a matter of mass media not mentioning something, and we know mass media is not 2nd Ammendment friendly.
The .22LR shortage might make sense if the Feds were buying large quantities of it, but 22 LR is scarcer than .223/556. I don't see that much .22 being sold. At these current prices, ammo hoarders would fare better to hoard other calibers and hold off on .22 LR until later.

 

[chopinbloc]

Originally Posted by Gun Master
Whenever the retailers (Wal-Mart, Bass Pro, etc.) limit boxes of ammo, per day, per customer, the ammo "crisis" will end.

They (retailers) need to be convinced that this would be advantageous to their sales, by having reasonably priced ammo, in reasonable quantities, available when their customers shop. The customer would be a happy camper when he shops, and more likely to return.

If THR visitors and members would aggressively, but nicely, contact the stores' managers, to inform them of their displeasure when ammo is not available, and how often this has happened, retailers would tend to limit quantities.

Who would like to try this ? What could it hurt ?

Nope. The imbalance between supply and demand won't end until retailers adjust prices to reflect actual demand. The current situation allows third party neckbeards to profit and enforces the shortage which, in turn, enforces the high demand. If prices are adjusted to reflect actual market conditions, product is available and demand diminishes to more normal levels. Eventually everybody who wants .22lr at 14 cents a round has it and prices will begin to drift downward again. Price and availability will eventually stabilize under the current arrangement but I believe it will take far longer than it would have if all retailers just raised prices.

 

[basicblur]

I could also throw in Just In Time Inventory to the previous list of reasons for the ammo (or any) shortage these days.

Since we're so deep into the shortage, I doubt it has any current effect (but wouldn't swear to it), but it probably has bump started various ammo shortages over the years.

The company I used to work for (pre JIT days) had multiple warehouses full of inventory, and no doubt their distributors did also. When I left the company, the warehouses were almost always empty - I'd bet the distributors warehouses looked the same.

When I went to work for the company, it was rare that I would go to the store room and they would be out of the part I needed - when I left, it was rare to find the part I needed whenever I tried to get a replacement part.
Apparently both my company (on the receiving end) and our suppliers were also on the JIT system, which is why we were always out of parts.

I'm sure the ammo companies were also using the JIT system - if you're on such a system, it doesn't take much of a spike in demand to create an instant shortage, which then feeds on itself (folks that don't even shoot buying ammo for currency, etc.).

 

[Reloadron]

This past winter was my first winter of being retired. One form of amusement and keeping busy was I started digging out and cleaning old brass I had managed to accumulate. Kept asking my wife to buy more 1 gallon zip loc freezer bags when she went to the store. Cleaning a few hundred here and there this is but one of several piles I managed and have yet to put a dent n this mess.



I have no clue how much powder, bullets and primers I have but I can likely load and shoot till I die and not run out. I can make all the ammunition I will ever need. When you get old and have been through rough times you learn. You keep a good stock on hand always adding to it.

There is one thing I can't make, one cartridge I can't hand load and create... That would be the lowly little 22 LR. Well OK, any rimfire for that matter.



Likely the most widely shot cartridge on the third rock from the sun and I can't make any. Guess I am not alone because as other cartridges return to the food chain the little rimfire 22 LR remains elusive. Just try and make one.

I was well stocked when the onset came so have not really needed to look for any. I have helped out family and friends and yes, if I saw a brick or two at Cabela's or Gander Mountain I picked them up to replace my stock. Even with my new found surplus of time on my hands I sure as hell am not going to get up at 6 AM to run to the local Wal-Mart or other retailer to get in line to buy 22 LR. I did stand in line overnight once for front row center Billy Joel tickets and would do it again for Jimmy Buffet but not for 22 LR.

The 22 LR crunch will last quite a bit longer as long as the moment it hits the shelves it's gone. You just can't roll your own 22 LR.

Just My Take....
Ron

 

[JohnKSa]

In previous ammo squeezes, it was cartridges for military rifles and auto handguns that were hit, as they are non-hunting cartridges.

It is interesting to see that you continue to post things as if they are fact or will somehow become fact simply because you post them.

In the ammo shortage of last year (which actually started in late 2012 and is the same ammo shortage we are still in right now) availability for nearly all cartridges was affected to some extent. The online sellers I use even ran out of cartridges like .45-70 which clearly is not a military rifle or auto handgun cartridge. The hardest hit calibers were the most commonly used cartridges INCLUDING .22LR which is also not a military rifle caliber nor specifically a handgun cartridge (auto or otherwise).

The shortage is definitely lifting, but has not returned to normal for any caliber as far as I can tell. .22LR seems to be the one that is returning to normal the most slowly, but even the other hard hit cartridges still haven't become as available as they were before 2012.

There are fewer ammo companies equipped to manufacture 22LR than centerfire cartridges, thus making the supply chain easier to tighten in that caliber.

I understand that--I'm not sure what in my response made you think I didn't.

I'll restate so there's no potential for misunderstanding: This theoretical person would be required to purchase more than just "an ammo company" to "tighten the supply chain" of .22LR. He would have to purchase a significant number of the companies making .22LR to be able to have any appreciable effect. Otherwise the remaining ammo companies would just take up the slack.

"Keeping a secret" is really just a matter of mass media not mentioning something...

No, keeping a secret is a matter of preventing anyone from gaining access to the secret. The idea that the mass media is the only group who can research a topic and gain access to information (like who owns publicly traded corporations) is ridiculous.

I have to believe that you're just posting for comedic effect at this point. I can't believe that you honestly think that the only way for people to get information is through the mass media.

The .22LR shortage might make sense...

It already makes perfect sense for those who have taken the time to get the facts and have the capability to assess them logically. The shortage is panic driven, and fed by people who (either intentionally or through ignorance--take your pick) spread misinformation and conspiracy theories to maintain the panic.

The imbalance between supply and demand won't end until retailers adjust prices to reflect actual demand.

That is one of 3 things that could end the imbalance. The other two are:

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply to meet increased demand.

 

[dook]

No, keeping a secret is a matter of preventing anyone from gaining access to the secret.

If 100 or 1000 people know a secret, it is still a secret in terms of the millions of masses who think that what the talking heads on the boob tube present is "fact" and everything else is "conspiracy theory".

 

[chopinbloc]

That is one of 3 things that could end the imbalance. The other two are:

1. Decrease in demand.
2. Increase in supply to meet increased demand.

That's true in a very literal sense but manufacturers appear to be disinclined to increase production beyond its current rate. That means that supply is unlikely to increase. Demand could decrease but I believe that scarcity is largely to blame for fueling demand. The market WILL eventually find an equilibrium but I believe that equilibrium would be reached much more quickly if retailers weren't afraid to let the market set price.

 

[Gun Master]

Lower .22 Ammo Prices

Nope. The imbalance between supply and demand won't end until retailers adjust prices to reflect actual demand. The current situation allows third party neckbeards to profit and enforces the shortage which, in turn, enforces the high demand. If prices are adjusted to reflect actual market conditions, product is available and demand diminishes to more normal levels. Eventually everybody who wants .22lr at 14 cents a round has it and prices will begin to drift downward again. Price and availability will eventually stabilize under the current arrangement but I believe it will take far longer than it would have if all retailers just raised prices.

Just one box, per customer, per day, imposed by the retailer (at whatever price), I believe would do the trick.

Ah, but how to convince the retailer it is to his advantage, that is the question ?

 

[Sam1911]

That's true in a very literal sense but manufacturers appear to be disinclined to increase production beyond its current rate.

I think that it is pretty well established that this isn't true. Or rather, is poorly phrased.

Manufacturers have gone as far as they can go with their existing production lines pushed to 24/7 operation. But they can't simply create new production lines/plants for .22 rimfire out of thin air, and they can't pull resources from some other production line (say 9mm, for example) because centerfire and rimfire production are so different there's no commonality in the machinery.

So we have heard news that the various manufacturers are working toward increasing their production capacity, but that takes time -- often years. "Increasing production capacity" may mean everything from having a piece of land surveyed and purchased, planning/zoning, impact studies and stormwater management plans, and electrical distribution systems routed in, wastewater treatment, industrial engineering for the new production lines, machinery spec'd, machinery sourced (uncommon equipment, now suddenly in high demand, itself), personnel hiring, sourcing new streams of raw materials (already over-extended), etc., etc., etc., etc.

They can't just "turn it up to ELEVEN!" Even running at near 100% will end up being problematic. Actually taking steps to change their total capacity is an enormous undertaking.

So these companies have had to predict what's going to happen with the market, finally decide that this panic is long-enduring enough* to actually support whatever new capacity they decide to bring on, and then act on that decision which will probably take in excess of a year -- maybe two! -- to bring about.

* -- Not capitalizing on a boom is bad. Spending a year or more and hundreds of millions of dollars to build a new plant, and finally opening just as folks finally decide they've got enough ammo stacked away, the political situation changes, the pressure's off, and the bottom falls out of the market would be MUCH worse. Companies could go bankrupt over a badly played action like that.


...

But everyone on teh interwebz knows that these greedy slacker ammo companies aren't doing anything to meet the demand because they're making a killing and are perfectly happy to let us shooters starve for ammo just so they can jack the price up, and anyway George Soros owns them all and is tightening down the screws on the industry so we don't have any more ammo to buy, because Obama told him to... yadda yadda...

 

[JohnKSa]

If 100 or 1000 people know a secret, it is still a secret in terms of the millions of masses who think that what the talking heads on the boob tube present is "fact"...

It is certainly true that people can choose to be ignorant by "sole-sourcing" their news from the mass media. It is also true that there are many millions of people who make that choice.

It is not true that something is a secret simply because the mass media does not mention it. It was not true even in the days before the internet and it is certainly not true now that anyone can post information that can be viewed internationally and also back it up with facts that can be readily verified.

...everything else is "conspiracy theory".

Your posts have contained allegations which can be classified as conspiracy theories based on one or more the following reasons:

1. They are contrary to established fact.
2. They are based on supposition and speculation, not information or sound reasoning.

The fact that they may or may not contradict what the mass media says is irrelevant although I do readily concede that it is creative of you to attempt to defend your maunderings with such an implication.

That's true in a very literal sense but manufacturers appear to be disinclined to increase production beyond its current rate.

This thread contains a fairly involved explanation of why supply is unlikely to be increased to the point that it fully meets the temporary demand created by the panic. However, supply has been increased to the extent that it can be without making large permanent investments to meet what is perceived as temporary demand. Furthermore, some companies (notably Remington) have actually begun permanent expansion to increase supply.

So supply has been increased, and it will be increased further.

Demand could decrease but I believe that scarcity is largely to blame for fueling demand.

Demand is already decreasing, and no, scarcity is not to blame for the demand spike. The demand spiked in reaction to the re-election of an administration perceived to be anti-gun, and the push for anti-gun legislation in the aftermath of Newton. Then, once the demand spike cleared the shelves, panic continued to fuel the increased demand. It's always been true that the gun community is very sensitive to any perceived shortage and reacts by panic-buying anything and everything that they think might be affected.

So it was started by panic (fear of anti-gun legislation) and fueled by panic (fear of "empty shelves", if you will).

The market WILL eventually find an equilibrium...

Correct, however the idea that price will be the primary determining factor in establishing that new equilibrium doesn't seem to be borne out by the facts--namely that ammunition prices from some of the major retailers never increased significantly even at the peak of the shortage.

The new equilibrium will most likely be based on changes in all three factors involved, supply, demand and price. When everything settles down, I believe we'll see that all three factors will be somewhat higher than before the shortage began. That is, we'll see more demand and supply than there used to be before the shortage and prices will likely settle slightly higher too.

That said, once supply and demand begin to achieve parity, the facts (no price increases at the wholesale level throughout the shortage) suggest that prices won't be dramatically higher than they were pre-shortage. My guess would be they'll be higher by actual inflation plus maybe a few percentage points.

 

[dook]

contrary to established fact.

Who establishes your "facts" for you?

 

[JohnKSa]

Who establishes your "facts" for you?

An amusing question coming from someone who is so obviously unconcerned with facts.

I also like the way you ask it, like there's such as thing as "my facts" and "your facts". The reality is that there are facts, but they aren't mine or yours, they are only facts.

I answered the question once before on this thread. I put my trust in research, multiple sources and logical reasoning. It's not as easy or fun as making up facts, but it works very well. You should try it.

 

[dook]

An amusing question coming from someone who is so obviously unconcerned with facts.

I also like the way you ask it, like there's such as thing as "my facts" and "your facts". The reality is that there are facts, but they aren't mine or yours, they are only facts.

What remains is how one determines whether given information is 100% true, 99% true, 40% true or 0% true.
If one thinks in absolutes, only 100% and 0% are possible.
There are 3 kinds of information: That which is 100% certain (practically nothing), That which is possible (practically anything), and that which is probable. Absolutists are not capable of assessing the latter.

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

There is one thing I can't make, one cartridge I can't hand load and create... That would be the lowly little 22 LR. Well OK, any rimfire for that matter.

You know...there's a market niche someone could corner right there, if they could come up with a reloading process for rimfire.

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

Why .22lr became as scarce as it has and for so long remains an unsolved mystery.

Not really - numerous reasons have already been given - some folks just refuse to let anything get in the way of a conspiracy theory...

And there you have it.

You wanna know what I think is the main reason this "shortage" has lasted so long? It's simple, really. Progress and Technology. Think about it. Any of us who have lived through these shortages in the past, know what it was like. If you wanted it, you had to drive and find it. Now, you get an app on your smart phone to tell you who has what. If you found it, you didn't text all your friends, you called them when you got home. Technology has turned our world into a very small place, where instant gratification is the normal, and buying .22 ammo is a side business for everyone with a phone.

Can't argue with this one!

 

[Gun Master]

"THE" Facts

An amusing question coming from someone who is so obviously unconcerned with facts.

I also like the way you ask it, like there's such as thing as "my facts" and "your facts". The reality is that there are facts, but they aren't mine or yours, they are only facts.

I answered the question once before on this thread. I put my trust in research, multiple sources and logical reasoning. It's not as easy or fun as making up facts, but it works very well. You should try it.

"I just want THE facts, m'am." Sgt. Joe Friday (Jack Webb) - "Dragnet"

 

[JohnKSa]

What remains is how one determines ...blah, blah, blah...of assessing the latter.

I love the way some people want to speculate, misinform and assume right up until someone else presents some real facts. Then, all of the sudden, they magically become experts on researching and verifying facts.

It's transparent and pointless for you to try and engage in a philosophical discussion about truth and facts at this point. If you had any real concern about how to research facts or how to establish truth, you would never been able to bring yourself to post the ridiculous nonsense you have attempted to foist upon the members of THR on this thread.

 

[mboylan]

There are fewer ammo companies equipped to manufacture 22LR than centerfire cartridges, thus making the supply chain easier to tighten in that caliber.
In previous ammo squeezes, it was cartridges for military rifles and auto handguns that were hit, as they are non-hunting cartridges. Shotgun shells have remained farly plentiful.
"Keeping a secret" is really just a matter of mass media not mentioning something, and we know mass media is not 2nd Ammendment friendly.
The .22LR shortage might make sense if the Feds were buying large quantities of it, but 22 LR is scarcer than .223/556. I don't see that much .22 being sold. At these current prices, ammo hoarders would fare better to hoard other calibers and hold off on .22 LR until later.

Yep. Only ATK, Olin and Remington make rimfire ammo in the US. Start up and operating costs are prohibitively expensive for a new manufacturer.

 

[dook]

Only ATK, Olin and Remington make rimfire ammo in the US. Start up and operating costs are prohibitively expensive for a new manufacturer.

Strategically, the best way to gain control of publicly traded companies is through Wall Street. Wall Street bankers have access to slowly take over companies like these.
Remember what Cerberus/Feinberg/Freedom Group did with Remington,Marlin and several other gun manufacturers? They took them over and dropped quality almost immediately. I call it back door gun control.

 

[John828]

One of the many great quotes in this thread,

Sam1911:

"They can't just 'turn it up to ELEVEN!'"

 

[john44402]

Plenty of vendors were selling 22LR at the San Francisco gun show.

 

[Reloadron]

Plenty of vendors were selling 22LR at the San Francisco gun show.

I don't doubt that. Plenty of vendors have 22 LR for sale at my local Cleveland, Ohio gun shows. There is also no shortage of retailers selling 22 LR online. So I guess there is no shortage of 22 LR out there. The question is what are you willing to pay for 22 LR?

Ron