Can you find .22lr?

[jrdolall]

Now, 22 WMR, that stuff pretty much doesn't exist unless you are willing to pay .223 prices for it.

I bought a bunch of 223 just over two years ago for less than $.20 per round and I haven't seen 22 WMR below $.28 or so for a long time. Really puts a damper on my PMR-30 shooting.

 

[oneounceload]

Yes, 22 LR is certainly available. The issue is the price. If you are willing to pay $.10-$.12/round you can find it online at any time -- plinking stuff for $.10 or perhaps something like Wolf Match Target or similar for $.12 or so.

Found CCI Mini Mags for .08 at Gander Mtn a few days ago. Works for me.

 

[huntsman]

I quit buying Mini-mags in 2010 when they got to $8.00 at WM, I sold 1500 rounds of thunderbolt crap for .08 but times they are a changing so if I could walk into a store and put down the cash I'd pay $8.00 for Mini-Mags

 

[Ignition Override]

jrdolall:
Please don't tell people about where to check on-line prices.

It could increase demand for 9x18 ammo (.24/rd.) used by the excellent CZ-82 and E. German Makarov.
As the govt. is obviously tracking how much ammo every person buys, and which types, may I should switch over to' China-Mart' for everything else.

 

[goofyoldfart]

Well over the years I always tried to buy 2or3 to 1. One to shoot as I wanted and the 2nd or 3rd to save (read that as stockpile). After combat in V.N. I came to the conclusion that I would rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it. over the years I have accumulated a rather nice stock pile which I would rather not number. Haven't shot much this year do to RMD (retinal macral degeneration) of both eyes AND Pancreatic Cancer surgery along with chemo. other than that I'm in fine shape. AND I do want to get out and shoot my cap and ball pistols and 22's. But both of those are slow loading so I don't waste a lot of ammo in spray and pray. I tend to shoot my single shot 22 even though I have 3 autoloaders. I find that slowing down my shooting is more fun and accurate. Just my choice and as such I'll be able to shoot till I die with some ammo left over for my grandson. God Bless to all and theirs.

Goofy aka Godfrey

 

[JohnKSa]

But they aren't 'patently obvious'.

By "patently obvious", I mean: logical, supported by facts provided by multiple reliable sources, and conforming to the basic concepts of supply & demand.

The threads right here at THR are evidence of that its not obvious.

The threads indicate that there are many people who apparently prefer an alternate explanation. The fact that people often choose what they consider to be an attractive alternate "explanation" for something that doesn't actually call for an alternate explanation isn't proof that the alternate explanation has merit. It's just a commentary on how human beings tend to be.

Do you think we are liars?

Nope. Not at all. In fact, I've explained (or tried to explain) why the reports that are being provided as "evidence" can be perfectly accurate while still being misleading if one doesn't look at the big picture.

Or just not smart enough to follow your 'patently obvious' explanation?

Honestly, I don't think it requires much intelligence. I think that the biggest part of this problem has virtually nothing to do with how smart people are and everything to do with what they want to believe--what they find to be the most attractive "explanation" for them.

There were only 10 POS total.
...
There are 40 POS's total now...

There probably are some more retailers getting in on the mix, but I suspect it's more that the existing retailers have increased their orders.

Your example assumes that all the POS's were all selling a lot of .22LR on a regular basis. A few were probably selling a lot but most were probably selling much less than the biggest sellers.

Then when the demand started going nuts, all the POS's started ordering more at once. Therefore the few who had been selling a lot suddenly started getting less than previously even though the overall supply increased.

So here's an example to help explain how that could happen.

Original demand situation.
100 POS's
10 POS's ordering/receiving/selling 25 units per week.
15 POS's ordering/receiving/selling 15 units per week.
25 POS's ordering/receiving/selling 3 units per week.
50 POS's ordering/receiving/selling 1 unit per week.

Total units manufactured/sold per week = 600 units = supply=demand


New demand situation.
Still 100 POS's
Demand increases by 5x, Supply increases by 2x.

Demand is now 3000 units
Supply is now 1200 units

Now the average demand per POS is 30 units per week (3000/100). In response to demand, all POS's increase their orders to meet the new demand.

Since there's not nearly enough to go around, the manufacturers must choose how to distribute what is available. So they try to distribute things evenly amongst the existing POS's. That means that every POS will now get only 12 units per week--1200 units of supply/100 POS's.

Even though supply doubled, the 10 POS's who were getting/selling 25 units before the change will now get only 12 units--less than half of what they had been receiving.

Even though supply doubled, the 15 POS's who were getting/selling 15 units per week before the change will now get only 12 units--three less than before.

The natural tendency is to focus almost exclusively on the main retailers of ammo--analogous to the 25 POS's in my example that sell much more than the other sellers. That's because that's where most of us go most often for ammo.

But there are many other retailers out there who are also selling ammo. When the demand went up, their orders went up too. If we only focus on how things changed at the major retailers of ammo, we won't get the big picture because it depends heavily on what happens with ALL the retailers--not just the major ones.

My example only uses a very few POS's. There are many, many more in the real world and most of them aren't selling huge volumes of ammo in the normal demand situation. But when the demand goes through the roof, all those small retailers start placing more and larger orders than before and even with increased supply, all that additional demand can reduce the amount available for the major retailers.

For what it's worth, I don't think that the example tells the whole story. I do think that there are probably some new retailers in the mix now which would mean even smaller slices of the pie for each one. I also think that some of the word of mouth reports from sellers are probably exaggerated by the sellers (either intentionally or unintentionally) and/or misinterpreted by the listeners. In other words, a seller might be recalling a particularly large order (which would naturally be much more memorable than the routine) while the listener takes that to be a normal order. I also think that there's probably some disingenuity going on at some retailers where clerks may be exaggerating the shortage (in terms of their shipping receipts) in order to cover special deals with friends/etc. taking place on the side.

 

[mboylan]

I thought WOLF was Russian as well?





Maybe the Russian stuff has been stopped?

Part of your information is incorrect. Wolf Match Target has always been manufactured by SK Jagd under parent company Lapua in Germany. SK Standard+ and Wolf MT are the same ammo made on the same line in different packaging. SK Match and Wolf ME are the same ammo made on the same line in different packaging. You can check with Lapua if you don't believe me.

Russian rimfire hasn't been imported into the US for many years. I really miss the high end stuff like Olimp-R and Temp. I could buy Eley Tenex quality for less than half the price.

 

[danez71]

The natural tendency is to focus almost exclusively on the main retailers of ammo--analogous to the 25 POS's in my example that sell much more than the other sellers. That's because that's where most of us go most often for ammo.

But there are many other retailers out there who are also selling ammo. When the demand went up, their orders went up too. If we only focus on how things changed at the major retailers of ammo, we won't get the big picture because it depends heavily on what happens with ALL the retailers--not just the major ones.

My example only uses a very few POS's. There are many, many more in the real world and most of them aren't selling huge volumes of ammo in the normal demand situation. But when the demand goes through the roof, all those small retailers start placing more and larger orders than before and even with increased supply, all that additional demand can reduce the amount available for the major retailers.

OoooooKay!

Now we're on the same field. You're describing a blend of my #1 and #2 which is really the most likely IMO (I shouldnt have wrote "Or" between them.)


This explains why how an individual store may get less now than before.

Expanding on what I quoted above, it wouldn't surprise me that there were 1000 Walmarts that were barely selling any and now could sell a bunch. In some sense, those are kind of like new POS as compared others that historically had higher run rates and really blur the #1 and #2 example I gave.

Twisting the Pareto rule... I think before we had 80% of the 22lr went through 20% of the POTENTIAL stores. This made it seem that there was always stock shelves and may have masked how fragile it was (demand almost reaching max capacity) because the shelves were always stocked.

And that loosely translates into 80% of the 22lr ammo was shot by 20% of the gun owners. Probably very little stored (hoarded) by the gun owners.... because it was always on the shelves.

Panic hit AND the market welcomes a slew of AR22s (and I bet those tend to be higher round counts)

Now 80% of gun owners suddenly want to stock up (hoard) (as opposed to only 20%) and 100% of the 22lr going thru 80% of the Potential stores (as opposed to only 20%) and the shelves are very sparsely stocked.


IOW, its not just the fact that demand is through the roof. That doesn't explain why a store may be getting less than before when capacity has increase.

Its also where that demand is coming from. If the overall demand is coming from more POS, the increased supply is just being spread thinner than if fewer POS.

Generally, the Mfg's can allocate their product to who ever and however they want but Wally is also known to have capacity clauses in their contracts. It can be worded many different ways but generally meaning that Wally can demand and get up to a certain percent of capacity.

If Wally called in their Capacity Clause, which increase their overall supply by 20% and then started spreading all of their allocation over their 3000 stores that traditionally had decent run rates AND another 1000 stores (33% increase in Wally POS's), that used to barely sell any, but now have huge demand.... None of the Wally stores will have much on the shelves anywhere.


So, the summary of all this is that, you're right, it still isn't a conspiracy. And there's sound reasoning that backs it up.


After all this time... adding capacity seems to be a reasonable venture. But that's another thread

 

[HankB]

I asked this question earlier, but maybe folks thought it was rhetorical because I got not answers - so I'll ask it again.

Now, everyone knows about supply and demand; over the years, most of us have seen sporadic shortages with gasoline, toilet paper, certain types of produce, reloading components, and most recently green-tip 5.56mm ammo. BUT . . . this .22 situation has been going on for OVER TWO YEARS now.

I'd just like to ask people here one question: Here in the USA, other than during WWII when rationing was imposed, has anyone personally experienced this sort of YEARS LONG shortage of ANY OTHER popular and common consumer product during their lifetime?

If there are other examples, that would support the contention that it IS a simple supply and demand issue. If there are no other examples, then that would suggest - strongly suggest - that something entirely unique, out of the ordinary, and unprecedented is going on with .22s.

 

[danez71]

Hank,
Other than the gas shortage that was kind of a natural resource issue caused by mostly by political reasons, No. (I don't even think is a very applicable comparison either.)

I can identify with "....that something entirely unique, out of the ordinary, and unprecedented is going on with .22s"

Which is partly why I think this topic gets brought up so often.

But it might be as simple as Capitalism has somewhat failed the market place.

No one has added capacity beyond adding labor shifts. No new machines. No added capacity per labor shift.

Again, After all this time... adding capacity seems to be a reasonable venture IMO. But what do I know.

 

[alsaqr]

Today the Lawton Academy store has 325 round cartons of Federal Auto Match for $17.99. There were at least 50 cartons on the shelf at the store entrance. i bought one.

 

[jrdolall]

Adding capacity really isn't a very simple process. If it were then I imagine one of the big 22 LR makers would have already done it. I am not in the ammo business but I guarantee that there is a fiscal reason that there has been no significant increase in manufacturing plants for 22 ammo.
As far as the question about long term shortage goes, I really don't think there is anything that can adequately compare to 22 ammo. Maybe water in CA? Let's not build a dam for 50 years. put 20 million people in an area that should hold less than a million, grow enough food to feed the rest of the country and parts of the world, and complain when we run short of water.
22 ammo is the cheapest ammo available. In recent, 10 maybe, years we have gone from bolt action rifles and semi pistols to AR-22 rifles with 30 round magazines so blowing through ammo is easier. I know I am guilty of this. No significant new production. Online stores that didn't exist 10 years ago are now carrying 22 ammo which, assuming equal production, takes away some that would be at Walmart. Then let's throw in the US Government threatening to take away some gun rights and we created a perfect storm.
Any shortage of perishable items can't be compared because it isn't possible to hoard lettuce or bread and milk. Gasoline can't be hoarded by the vast majority because it requires large storage capabilities. 20k rounds of 22 LR will fit under any bed or in a closet. 20k loaves of bread will take up more space.

 

[danez71]

Adding capacity really isn't a very simple process. If it were then I imagine one of the big 22 LR makers would have already done it. I am not in the ammo business but I guarantee that there is a fiscal reason that there has been no significant increase in manufacturing plants for 22 ammo.

Agreed. Its a risk vs reward / ROI issue.

And since its not my money,.....

 

[45_auto]

Here in the USA, other than during WWII when rationing was imposed, has anyone personally experienced this sort of YEARS LONG shortage of ANY OTHER popular and common consumer product during their lifetime?

During and immediately following Gulf War 1 (1990-1991) and Gulf War 2 (2003), primers were pretty much unavailable for several years each time.

I've kept my stock up around 100K since then.

Spot rimfire shortages started showing up when Obama was elected in 2008. Where I could previously stop by Wal-Mart and buy a bulk pack on the way to the range, it became aggravating when they would be out about 1/3 of the time.

Luckily for me I stocked up on rimfire at that time.

The explosion of gun buyers/shooters due to fear of legal action after Sandy Hook in 2012 has swamped the ammo producers.

The most legitimate estimates I've seen estimate a cost of $250,000,000 ($250 million) to start up a .22 rimfire plant. Along with the legal liabilities, there is no justifiable business case for putting up that kind of money to be repaid at about a penny per round over 20 years or so.

 

[krupparms]

The problem seems to be ongoing! I see fokes on here that have no problems getting all they won't at decent prices. But around here it has been the same for 2 years now. NO .22L.R. or .22MAG! THE .22L.R.comes in every now& then at super high prices & NO ONE HAS SEEN ANY .22MAG. AT ALL! This is very unsettling! And does cause people to wounder why! There is no good reason for it to most. Sure hope it ends soon! Shooting .22L.R. is something I did everyday for years! Never thought I would have to stop!

 

[Hammer059]

Funny when people refer to problems caused by government meddling as the failure of capitalism… HA

Every time I go into my LGS they seem to have more and more .22lr. Same goes for some other shops nearby. I love it. picked up another 300 rounds of CCI standard-velocity today for about $25. If any of you guys are ever in my area, send me a message and I'll point you in the right direction.

 

[JohnKSa]

OoooooKay!

Now we're on the same field.

I thought while I was posting it that my last post was pretty much a recap/restatement of my previous ones on the thread. I must have said something differently or maybe just laid it out in more detail. I guess it highlights how difficult it can be to achieve good communication.

BUT . . . this .22 situation has been going on for OVER TWO YEARS now.

After the first Obama win there was an ammo shortage (mostly centerfire) that lasted for 2-3 years. I was finally able to restock my 9mm supply during the summer before the second Obama win.

 

[oneounceload]

mboylan

Thanks for that clarification about Wolf; nice to learn something new everyday.

 

[oneounceload]

The problem seems to be ongoing! I see fokes on here that have no problems getting all they won't at decent prices. But around here it has been the same for 2 years now. NO .22L.R. or .22MAG! THE .22L.R.comes in every now& then at super high prices & NO ONE HAS SEEN ANY .22MAG. AT ALL! This is very unsettling! And does cause people to wounder why! There is no good reason for it to most. Sure hope it ends soon! Shooting .22L.R. is something I did everyday for years! Never thought I would have to stop!

Because the profit margin isn't there compared to other lines of product, The supply has remained the same but the demand (and hoarding) has gone up exponentially. With the gov't upping orders for ammo all the time, the profit is there, not in the .22. Even with that, IIRC, they are making millions a year of .22. I see more folks shooting 9mm, etc. than .22 so folks must be stockpiling endlessly.

 

[danez71]

I thought while I was posting it that my last post was pretty much a recap/restatement of my previous ones on the thread. I must have said something differently or maybe just laid it out in more detail. I guess it highlights how difficult it can be to achieve good communication.After the first Obama win there was an ammo shortage (mostly centerfire) that lasted for 2-3 years. I was finally able to restock my 9mm supply during the summer before the second Obama win.

A little differently..... and Yes, communication is a 2 way deal and trying to do it a 'post' at a time really hinders having a 'conversation'.

The 1st Obama win wasn't nearly as bad for me as compared to the 2nd and shootings panic.


Hey... any body have any hands on experience with this stuff? I'm seeing good qtys out there at about 8-9 cents ea.

I did some quick searches and it seems to be Aguilar related.
http://www.munireusa.com/raptor-ci-22-lr-40-grain-500-rounds-high-velocity/

 

[jrdolall]

Apparently the CI Raptor ammo is Mexican manufacture and not affiliated with CCI but possibly with Aguila. I too have seen it online but have not made a purchase.

 

[Hammer059]

Just ordered 3,000 rounds of some CCI copper-plated stuff called "AR tactical". I almost didn't buy it because of the ridiculous name, but it seems to pretty much be the same thing as Mini-Mags. I paid about 10 cents a round but considering how scarce Mini-Mags are for me I was happy to pay it. If anybody is interested I'll message you the link

 

[JSH1]

Adding capacity really isn't a very simple process. If it were then I imagine one of the big 22 LR makers would have already done it. I am not in the ammo business but I guarantee that there is a fiscal reason that there has been no significant increase in manufacturing plants for 22 ammo.

I suspect rimfire manufacturing equipment can only be used to make rimfire ammo. A manufacturer is taking a big risk to spend millions based on future volume of small number of cartridges. With new centerfire equipment a manufacturer has hundreds of cartridges they can make and utilize that new tooling so the risk is lower. I'm sure the rimfire has a very low margin so the potential reward is small.

 

[Jesse H]

*For example, on Thursday Midway had 325 rd boxes of federal auto match 22 LR for less than 7 cents a round shipped (if the limit of 3 boxes was bought, price point would be higher if less was bought and shipping wasn't spread over the three boxes). It will be here on Monday. Why waste gas and wait in line at stores for 50 rd. boxes, when one can order online when an email notification comes through?*

I just happened to have my email window open when I received one of those emails. Clicked the link to order a couple bricks but my internet connection was slow.

I pulled my phone out of my pocket to buy and it was already sold out. I'm down to my last brick of .22lr...

 

[Trailduster79]

I am able to find it at Wal-mart pretty easy. I have bought more than I will shoot in quite a while.

I enjoy the "hunt" of finding it.....