Is Iraq headed toward civil war?

[Destructo6]

Only Saddam Husseins iron rule held it together in one piece.

Uh, try at least as early as the Sassanid Empire of the 3rd century. Later, various Muslim empires, then Mongul, then Muslim again, then British. They can and have played nicely together.

 

[trooper]

They can and have played nicely together.

Yeah, as long as a strong central gov. forces them to. None of the regimes you mentioned seems especially freedom-oriented and democratic to me

The different people in the Balkans have been forced together by the Ottoman empire and later by the Austrians for centuries before Tito took over. They decided to duke it out anyway once his adminstration was gone.


Regards,

Trooper

 

[bountyhunter]

Uh, try at least as early as the Sassanid Empire of the 3rd century. Later, various Muslim empires, then Mongul, then Muslim again, then British. They can and have played nicely together.

But in the present case, the deck is stacked and the situation has to explode:

1) Under Hussein, the Sunnis dominated and controlled the country, even though they are not the population majority. The Sheeites are the majority, and they want control.

2) The Sheeites are demanding that the government be set up through popular elections because they know they will win, the Sunnis are fighting very hard now to make sure that doesn't happen.

That unstable structure (where a minority group held down the majority group by force) will cause an explosion when we pull out. The Sheeites have payback in mind for what was done to them under Hussein, and the Sunnis know it.

What's worse, the major political power in the country in all factions is held by religous leaders and they are demanding the government be based on Islam. The US will never allow this because we just had top go into Afghanistan to kick out one of those.

I don't know how that place could be any more screwed up. Every side is demanding and saying something different, there seems to be no middle ground, and Bush just keeps saying "we'll be handing you the keys in July".

 

[Destructo6]

That unstable structure (where a minority group held down the majority group by force) will cause an explosion when we pull out. The Sheeites have payback in mind for what was done to them under Hussein, and the Sunnis know it.

Not necessarily. The Shiites of Iraq have always been out of power and have, in the past, developed a philosophy that not only doesn't require political power, but rejects it as worldly. I'm not sure, however, if they, with the example of Iran, have overcome that philosophy.

Yeah, as long as a strong central gov. forces them to. None of the regimes you mentioned seems especially freedom-oriented and democratic to me

Nope. Assuming that the current residents of Iraq get together and build a democratic and freedom-oriented government, it will be the first. As such, it's going to take some time and I wouldn't be surprised if the first effort or two failed (France is in her 5th republic).

 

[trooper]

Assuming that the current residents of Iraq get together and build a democratic and freedom-oriented government, it will be the first.

Well... I'd have a hard time assuming that. I think it's much more likely that the new Iraq will fall apart in violent confrontations rather soon. In some places it already started even though the coalition is still there.


Regards,

Trooper