New to Forum...Some Thoughts

[ChromDome]

Let me begin by saying hello to you all. I found this place during the immediate aftermath of Katrina when I was looking for news from people bugging out. Preacherman, your threads and thoughts are excellent.

I like the fact that this forum avoids the negative sterotypes associated with survivalism and focuses on real world strategies for dealing with real world problems.

Let's face it folks, our society has forgotten how to survive. As modern convienice has taken over our lives, we've forgotten basic subsistance skills. We have become dependent upon electricity, gasoline, computers, and Wal-Mart. For thousands of years, humanity had to work to survive. We hunted and farmed for our food. Putting dinner on the table didn't consist of stopping by McDonalds on the way home. We've slowly migrated from rural settings into densly packed urban settings where having a garden or hunting for food isn't practical.

I'm not advocating a return to a pre modern society, i'm simply making a point that as a society we've forgotten some really important things.

I can only think of a couple of disaster scenarios that would have a larger impact area that Katrina:

1) Earthquake - A major quake on either the New Madrid or San Andreas would far exceed the size of the Katrina impact area
2) Panademic Flu Outbreak - Could be nation wide and kill 200k +
3) EMP Attack on the US - I view this as the single most devestating thing that could happen to us. ONE nuke detonated 60km Over the central US would have a devestating impact on our country. Iran and North Korea can never be allowed to have nukes. If you want to be scared read this report to congress on the impact of an EMP attack. House Armed Services Committe Report on EMP threat to the US

This quote from the report sums it up pretty well: The high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces.

I would be interested in hearing your opinions on this.

 

[hso]

Welcome.

It's all about the relationship between probability and severity.

While an EMP in the US would be very bad, it's so improbably low a potential that I don't give it any thought. The difficulty in producing the weapon is one barrier to this scenario. The other is the difficulty in producing the delivery vehicle. Third would be navigation/targeting. Too many things have to happen together for much probability for this very severe event to occur.

OTOH, a temporary loss of power and phone lasting as long as 30 days due to weather is not only possible, but probable for most of us. I've done without both for 2 weeks in my life when wind and snow took them out and there are folks that do without as a way of life. I know that I will loose power and communications and that it will come due to weather when they are "needed" the most.

I'm not subject to flooding. Tornados are rare. Earth quakes a distant threat. Winter ice storms OTOH are something to expect in my area.

 

[Paul Gomez]

The veil of civilaztion is very thin.

Whether it's flood, hurricane, earthquake, epidemic, terrorist attack, whatever, it does not take much to thoroughly disrupte our normal lives.

 

[armoredman]

I am fortunate that I live in an area not known for really severe weather, or massive natural disasters, but in the desert, when the electricity stops, the pumps stop, and the water stops....That's distaster.

 

[chopinbloc]

you forgot celestial impact. the collision of a large asteroid or comet with the planet earth is the most devastating event that can occur, short of the sun going supernova. the latter won't happen for a few billion years, so i'm pretty sure i don't have to worry about it. the former can happen at any time. the number of people charting celestial objects and projecting orbits is about the same as the staff of your average mcdonald's. the number of potentially world devastating objects bouncing around the solar system is, well, astronomical. have you seen meteor crater in AZ? pictures do not do it justice. there is a growing acceptance of the theory that an impact caused the dished out formation at the yucatan penninsula. some have gone so far as to say that impact was the one that did away with the dinosaurs. more recently, the the tunguska event of 1908 shattered an immense portion of siberia, and that was actually a fairly small one, as far as we know. practically speaking, collisions are happening constantly, every second of every day. a large impact WILL happen, we just don't know when.

The blast is now thought to have been caused by a stony body some 50 meters in diameter, that exploded with the force of 15-30 megatons of TNT, 6 km above the ground, at a spot 60o 55’ North, 101o 57’ East.

on emp devices: a couple years ago i read an article in popular science or popular mechanics about a home made emp device. the theory was that someone could produce a pretty darn powerful emp pulse with easily obtained items. the most difficult would be the high explosive. idea was you hook up a couple car batteries to a transformer and a capacitor bank. the capacitor discharges into a copper coil and a precisely timed shaped charge collapses the coil. this produces a current spike with a resultant electro-magnetic pulse. it also wouldn't have to be nearly as powerful as a nuke to cause pretty severe effects if place near phone lines or power lines. the other benefit for a terrorist is the fact that since they are already blowing stuff up, they can add shrapnel outside to get a few bodies.

it is my opinion that any large scale disaster in the phoenix area (my home) is likely to be man made. riots are at the top of my list of probable suspects.

 

[R.H. Lee]

The veil of civilaztion is very thin.

Every time I go into a big city, any big city, I get the distinct uncomfortable feeling that everything is right on the edge of complete chaos.

Maybe I'm just a rube hick.

 

[MikeIsaj]

Welcome ChromDome! Stick around, there's always a good discussion of something going on here.

 

[ChromDome]

it also wouldn't have to be nearly as powerful as a nuke to cause pretty severe effects if place near phone lines or power lines. the other benefit for a terrorist is the fact that since they are already blowing stuff up, they can add shrapnel outside to get a few bodies.

The thing about that though is it would be a fairly local effect. It wouldn't cause a widespread effect like an airburst nuke. I.E...If somone did that in Little Rock, it wouldn't affect me in NW Arkansas.

As far as a celestrial impact is concerned, i've always considered that as an end of the world scenario where it wouldn't matter anyway. I guess that would depend on the size of the object though.

 

[Sewerman]

A-men R.H. and welcome crome dome, i have found this to be a most excelent and welcoming forum even to an iritable old hick like me