Saddam's military schemes are masterpieces of incompetence

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http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/71835.htm

TRAPPED!

By RALPH PETERS
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March 26, 2003 -- PERHAPS the craziest notion bouncing around the media is that Saddam Hussein is a brilliant military strategist. He may be a champion dictator, good at slaughtering, torturing, raping and starving his own people. But his military schemes are masterpieces of incompetence.
Right now, the hand-wringers are warning that Saddam, in a stroke of genius, has deployed his Republican Guards in towns and villages, threatening us with deadly urban combat and inevitable destruction.

What Saddam actually has done is to break his last, best armored divisions into little pieces. He'll never be able to put them back together. And we'll destroy them, piece by piece.

Saddam's remaining "elite" troops are indeed hiding behind civilians and breaking the laws of war by placing tanks, artillery and other military systems next to mosques, hospitals and schools. Yes, they're using their own people as human shields. But the pundits - and Saddam - have utterly misread the consequences.

Certainly, this dispersal of his remaining divisions makes targeting them harder - because we don't intentionally kill innocent civilians. So the destruction of Saddam's last armored forces may go a bit more slowly. But that's only an annoyance. In the greater scheme of things, Saddam has done us a favor.

By breaking up his most-loyal brigades and divisions of his own free will, Saddam has thrown away his last chance to use them as a coherent military force. They're not only out of his control now, they're out of the control of their battalion and brigade commanders.

The purpose of an armored division is to strike swiftly, with massive, converging firepower, against your enemy. Tanks are not effective in ones and twos. A division's real advantage is the synergy it achieves by combining all of its combat systems - tanks, infantry, artillery - into one powerful package.

Just as he has trapped himself in Baghdad, like Hitler in Berlin, Saddam has trapped the best of his military in scattered villages, towns and suburbs. The moment they try to move out of their hiding places to gather and attack us, they will be destroyed.

They're not even that well hidden. When the sandstorms clear and we pick up the pace again, we'll strike them at our leisure. As for the cowards hiding next to hospitals and mosques, we'll spare them for now - but they might as well be chained to those buildings. They can't move, or they'll be destroyed.

That's not going to do Saddam or his grandiose plans much good.

I do agree with the straight-shooter generals we've heard briefing from the Gulf: Tough days still lie ahead. Some of that Iraqi armor will come out to fight in little groups. Our troops on the ground may get into some challenging armored gunfights. But we're better-trained, better-equipped, better-motivated, and we're led by real soldiers, not by dictators cross-dressing as field marshals.

Deadly dangers remain, and I do not ever want to suggest that the last stretch of the road to Baghdad will be an easy ride. Some Iraqi tanks have been dug in and carefully camouflaged. Some may even get off the first shot. But they won't get off a second one. A tank in a stationary position is nothing but a pillbox leaking oil - and a perfect target. No Iraqis who kill or injure Americans are going to survive.

And more indicators have popped up that Saddam has ordered the use of chemical weapons on the battlefield. If his subordinates are foolish enough to obey his orders to employ these inhumane weapons, they may, indeed, harm unknown numbers of our men and women in uniform. But our response will be fierce, and uncompromising, and irresistible.

If chemical weapons are used, the results could be ugly. And the broadcast media will go into a panic. But the readers of this newspaper (and you studs down on Wall Street) need to remain steady, in that great New York "I seen 'em tougher than you, buddy" spirit.

Since 9/11, America's been in the payback business. And there's nobody better at business than Americans. Any chemical attacks will be avenged.

Dictators always mistake freedom for weakness. We will not be deterred by anything Saddam and his dying regime throw at us. We will simply show the world that there is no courage more enduring or powerful than the courage born of liberty.

THIS column has consistently tried to apply common sense, honesty, and military experience to explaining the events of this war. But, just as I believe we can all be confident of the war's outcome, we also need to be willing to look hard at our mistakes. And some mistakes have been made.

The men and women of our armed forces are performing valiantly under difficult, exhausting conditions. They continue to face serious dangers, from chemical weapons to the bloody intensity of tactical combat. But there is one other risk that concerns me - and it was a needless risk to take.

Despite the warnings - even the pleading - of his generals, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld refused to send as many heavy ground forces to the Gulf as our military planners requested. In many ways an admirable and inspiring leader, Rumsfeld let himself be persuaded by a gang of civilian theorists and by mercenary defense contractors that airpower could win this war and that ground forces would just go in to tidy things up.

So the generals did not get the extra armored divisions they wanted to provide maximum punch on the battlefield and as insurance should unexpected difficulties emerge. Now we have no significant ground reserves in the theater of war, we lack adequate combat units to fully protect our supply lines - and the weary troops at the front must continue the fight by themselves.

A campaign like this should be a matter of teamwork, with new players going in to relieve those who need a breather. But we went to war with nobody on the bench.

Make no mistake: Our soldiers and Marines will pull this one off. Count on it. But, in this single respect, the civilian leadership in the Pentagon let our troops down. We had the forces, we had the time, and Secretary Rumsfeld refused to send them. Just as Defense Secretary Les Aspin refused to send our troops in Somalia the tanks for which they begged.

This isn't Somalia, but any defense secretary unwilling to listen to the advice of his uniformed subordinates assumes a terrible responsibility.

Ralph Peters is a retired military officer and the author of "Beyond Terror: Strategy in a Changing World."
 
bad article. given that saddam cannot hope to wage any kind of mass armoured warfare in the open desert (which, after all, is the mission at which the Coalition force excels at), the only option for him is to protect his loyalists behind civilians, pick off isolated troops and hope that he causes enough US/UK casualties so that either the UN or the anti-war movement causes a withdrawl of one or more coalition nations; or the arab nations start an oil embargo.

saddam knows he cannot win, he is desperately trying not to lose.
 
agricola,

Lt. Col. Ralph Peters, U.S. Army (Ret.) is probably as well aware of that as you or I.

This column is meant to reassure the kind of person whose military knowledge comes from watching CNN for the past five days that, contrary to the bubbleheads on TV, Saddam is not employing some devious super master strategy to destroy the Coalition forces.

To paraphrase Sean Smith from another thread, "Actually having to stop and shoot somebody doesn't mean the attack has 'ground to a halt in the teeth of fierce resistance'."
 
Has Ralph gotten THAT stupid since I last read him? :rolleyes:

Iraq appears to be persuing the only strategy that can possibly work for them. "Mass" is a great military concept, except when concentrating your tank forces just means that they al willl be destroyed by a single U.S. cavalry troop in about half an hour (as was the case in at least one tank battle in the Gulf).

A force-on-force fight along conventional lines is about the stupidest thing possible for Iraq. Their capabilities are just too feeble. The only way they can "win" is by doing what they are doing, by dispersing their forces in urban areas to delay operations and inflict causalties (both on the U.S. military and their own civilians) in the hope that we get sick of digging them out.
 
Sean,

I don't think this was written for you.

It was written to reassure Mrs. Yablonski whose kid is over there that, contrary to what MSNBC is telling her, Saddam is not the greatest military mind since Hannibal, and he's not in the process of duping the poor, stupid American army.
 
I don't think this was written for you.

True, but it wasn't written for anybody with a brain, either.

Uh, did I word that right? :scrutiny: :D

Without going off the deep end about how the author apparently slept through the classes on asynchronous and asymmetric warfare, it is enough to say, in the words of Liddell Hart, "...take care not to diverge from the truth - for nothing is more fatal to its real advancement than to lapse into untruth."

Using bad strategy drivel to counteract bad reporting drivel still leaves you with drivel.
 
dictators cross-dressing as field marshals.


Great line! :D


Ummm, anyone for a "shore up the stock market" article?

But he's right. Doing the only possible thing is not evidence of a great military mind. Saddam is not stupid, but neither is he a brilliant military strategist.
 
saddam is by no means clever, aside from a certain brutal cunning - but to draw a parallel with Berlin (for someone who should know better) is utterly false. The Red Army virtually levelled the place and lost men by the hundreds of thousand (to say nothing of the German military and civilian casualties); in a campaign where they had a (in terms of collateral damage) free hand tactically

if berlin '45 is repeated in baghdad '03, then saddam will have won
 
Unlike many hear I have never been in the military.

I think Saddam knows that he doesn't have a chance in hell of win a fight based on conventional battles.

He hopes to make it a guerrilla war by inflicting as many casualites as possible.

He will fail in leading a successful guerrilla war. To have a successful one you need a cooperative populations that will hide the guerrilas and sustain them. The Iraqi population won't do that.

So yeah, he can be a butthead and act like a terrorist. His actions in my opinion have even increased the reasons he needs to be overthrown. The US will be victorious.
 
He hopes to make it a guerrilla war by inflicting as many casualites as possible.
The reason that he hopes to do that is that he thinks we'll cut and run, like we did in Vietnam and Somalia.
 
One thing worth noting is the total lack of international condemnation for Iraq's violations of the laws of land warfare. Iraqi forces have faked surrenders, used civilians as cover, attacked US forces from hospitals (which had arms & ammo stored therein), and according to the ICRC violated the Geneva Convention provisions for the treatment of prisoners of war several times over. Regardless of their position on the war as policy, their tacit acceptance of war crimes is, if not shocking, then at least depressing.

If you wanted evidence that our ersatz "allies" don't merely object to the Bush administration policy against Iraq, but to an alarming extent hate America, you need to look no further than their silent acceptance of Iraqi war crimes against our forces. It is one thing to vehemently object to a particular American policy; it is quite another to, by your silence, condone the humiliation, torture and execution of American prisoners of war.

This situation was commented on by that arch-conservative and vehement hawk, Alan Colmes* ;)

I would say that even if -- I will just pick up on your point, Dr. Bennett. Even those nations who are not with us on this, like France, like Germany, should be vehemently outspoken about the violation of the Geneva Convention and the rules of engagement of war whether or not they agree in this war or with this war, whatever their political point of view is. The outrage about the way Iraq is conducting itself and lacking rules of engagement should be something every civilized country is vehement about.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,82239,00.html

(*Alan Colmes being the liberal, dove-ish commentator on "Hannity and Colmes")
 
One thing worth noting is the total lack of international condemnation for Iraq's violations of the laws of land warfare.
You're right. I heard Kofi Anon this morning harping about the "bomb"* that got dropped on that Baghdad market but not a peep about the Iraqis and their behavior.



*Some think it might have been an Iraqi SAM that fell out of the sky.
 
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I'm in total agreement with both of agricola's posts! :D

I'm calling 911 as soon as I get the rest of my emergency room kit packed.... :rolleyes:
 
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