Seems like we are in recession to me...

[Flame Red]

I am guessing that the gun market is similiar to the stock market in its ability to tell economic conditions. Seems to me that since New Years, many of the collectables firearms are harder to move, like Colt revolvers for example. Is it yet another 'bubble' about to burst?

• Guns being sold by non-dealers are not moving very well.
• Selling prices on those that are getting sold by individuals are dropping.

Only thing that seems to keep rising in prices and continuing to sell is Class-3 (of course).

I would have thought that with the (apparent) change in administration, people would be stocking up on everything under the sun before the Obomanation gets his coronation.

Your observations?

 

[MaterDei]

Gun sales seem very healthy to me, but I'm not in the industry. In addition to Class-3 weapons continuing to increase in price, ammunition is continuing to get more expensive.

 

[Moonclip]

In my area for the past few months, I have seen a lot less used guns for sale than usual. To me that shows less of a recession but that is a very unorthodox and mistake prone way to gauge this. I though after Y2K also I'd see a lot of guns flood back in to the market also but I didn't.

 

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Do like my wife and I. We don't participate in recessions. When we need or want something, we do what's necessary and buy it(or build it in some cases). We bought two guns on Washington's Birthday - not to celebrate, but because we needed a new carry gun and a new plinking gun. Oh, and we are in no way wealthy.

Woody

Those of us who are armed stand in the way of something terrible. I don't know what it is, but it is damned scared of us. Let's keep the fear in its heart, not ours. B.E. Wood

 

[BattleChimp Potemkin]

My local shops seem to have alot more used guns, which is a huge boon to me! People are trading in thier guns for money and I can finally find the really odd guns that I want (picked up a Ballester Molina mint and a pencil barrel model 10 for roughly a song and a half, picking up a Iver Johnson TP22 today). Its not a sign of recession, its a sign of people's FEAR of a recession. Call it what anyone wants, but it spells more fun stuff for me!!

 

[aguyindallas]

ConstitutionCowboy hit the nail on the head.

Dont listen to the media and all the negative vibe going around. If you want something (and can afford it), go BUY IT!!!

 

[HKUSP45C]

Ask yourself this, too. If everyone, including the "news" told you we were in a recession and it was going to get worse, would you run out and make a "frivolous" purchase? If you needed quick cash to help ride out the recession wouldn't you price your wares low to sell them faster?

I think part of what we are seeing is the impact of the message being borne by the thousands that the sky is falling, whether or not it really is. It's a vicious cycle. Everyone claims a recession is here and everyone stops spending money, creating a recession. Then everyone says it's getting worse and everyone stops spending more money and it gets worse. And so on.

I'm not naive enough to think that there aren't some areas of the country that are in a financial crunch. I do not, anecdotally, see it in my area or the areas acroos the country where my friends whom I keep in touch with live.

Maybe, myself and everyone I talk to are just lucky enough not to be effected by the horrible downturn in the US economy. Of course it could be that the downturn isn't nearly as bad as we're being led to believe. What the hell do I know though, I fix computers for a living.

 

[jerkface11]

Economic growth has slowed in the last year or so. However it has not reversed so this is not a recession. Members of a certain party seeking the Whitehouse want you to think it is though.

 

[BattleChimp Potemkin]

I think its a little unsettling that people think of firearms as a tradable commodity, rather than a tool/weapon. Lots of folks I know get a nice firearm, show it off at the local range, then sell it to make a truck payment or something stupid. Why buy a firearm when you cant pay your regular bills? They are the ones usually getting POed when the local gunshop wont give them a reasonable amount for the gun b/c of recession paranoia filling thier shop with "commodity" guns.

 

[Derek Zeanah]

Remember folks, a recession is 6 months of consecutive negative growth (IIRC - minored in Econ but that was a dozen or so years ago). So far we haven't had even one month of negative growth.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily matter all that much. When people start to think "we're in for some bad economic times" they get a little more conservative with how they spend their discretionary income -- do I really want to replace my 3 year old car when it looks like the economy might be turning sour? Would it be smarter to eat out less so I can sock more money away for a rainy day? Should I focus on paying down credit card debt rather than buying that new 50" TV?

Same with guns I suppose. Do I really want a new toy? The answer will likely still be "yes" if it looks like a new ban is coming down (though I'd focus on ammo instead), but a "no" otherwise.

 

[igpoobah]

The economy always gets funky in election years as well. People are unsure of the future..

 

[taliv]

you guys sure class III stuff is still increasing?

i've been seeing class III stuff selling at a discount lately. anecdotal, of course, but just curious what others have experienced.

 

[Just Jim]

My state has a system that background checks the sale of firearms. It covers dealers and gunshows. The system gives you a number that tells you it is ok for the sale (transaction number) I bought a BHP last monday and the number was 19473. That is how many guns have been sold in my state since the first of the year. Oregun

jj

 

[primlantah]

a recession is an emotional response to fluctuations in the market. The more people throw around the word recession the more people will respond to it. The result of this word being used so much lately seems to slow markets because consumers become afraid. This thread is adding to the fear Americans have about a failing economy. Adding to the fear of our economy will not help the market return to equilibrium.

 

[Telperion]

The charts at http://www.machinegunprices.com show that prices for many models have plateaued or seen modest declines in 2007.

 

[jhansman]

My gauge for recession? If the economy is strong, I'll go into debt to buy another gun. If not, one gets sold to buy the other.

I just sold a rifle to get a rifle. Balanced budget!

 

[bogie]

It's all Bush's fault. I know that because that's what I've seen and heard from the teevee for the past seven years.

I know we're in a recession, because that's that I've been seeing and hearing from the same teevee.

But Hilbama will fix that!

 

[ConstitutionCowboy]

you guys sure class III stuff is still increasing?

i've been seeing class III stuff selling at a discount lately. anecdotal, of course, but just curious what others have experienced.

What you might be seeing is panic from some who have paid big bucks for a Class III and they wish to dump it before a favorable ruling comes from the DC v. Heller case, and we can eventually buy new machine guns again. I would call that panic and not recessional.

Woody

"Charge the Court, Congress, and the several state legislatures with what to do with all the violent criminals who cannot be trusted with arms. We law abiding citizens shouldn't be burdened with having to prove we are not one of the untrustworthy just because those in government don't want to stop crime by keeping violent criminals locked up." B.E. Wood

 

[Vaarok]

All of my local shops are getting picked bare. They say they can't keep stuff in stock, even though a lot of purchases are being made on layaway.

I'm not sure if it's election jitters or what, but I can't find a damn thing to buy lately.

 

[Flame Red]

What you might be seeing is panic from some who have paid big bucks for a Class III and they wish to dump it before a favorable ruling comes from the DC v. Heller case, and we can eventually buy new machine guns again. I would call that panic and not recessional.

Woody

Gosh - I could only dream of that!

 

[Telperion]

Suspect the price declines on MGs have more to do with rising ammo prices than Heller at this point. Prices started to level off in some cases well before the appeals court decision was made. This can especially be seen with the charts for the FAL and M14 on that site -- .308 prices started to become painful in '06.

 

[stubob2517]

I was watching the news the other day and found out that we have had three recessions in the past 10 or 12 years; the things you never knew!!!

I agree with several of the posters that if we are in a recession it's because people have been telling us for months that we were going to go into a recession. I think it was Joe Stalin who said, "If you tell a lie enough times the people will believe it."

Y2k, bird flu, recession. A government that keeps the people scared has a better chance of controlling the people.

 

[Flame Red]

Y2k, bird flu, recession. A government that keeps the people scared has a better chance of controlling the people.

And let's not forget global warming!

 

[Phil DeGraves]

I don't know if it's the gubmint keeping everyone scared or the media which is trying to impede the gubmint.

 

[waterhouse]

many of the collectibles firearms are harder to move, like Colt revolvers for example.

I doubt you can get much out of that observation in relation to the economy. Too many other variables. A big one right now is legislation. I usually sell or transfer a few ARs/lower receivers a week. I've seen a huge increase in those over the past 3 months.

I haven't run any sort of real analysis on my books, but from a quick check it seems like 1911s are somewhat slowing down while higher cap 9mm (glocks, sigs, etc.) are picking up. This could either be due to legislation fears (banning of +10 mags) or ammo costs, or just some randomness.

Another thing to consider: April is approaching. Other than right before Christmas, that seems to be one of the biggest times for people turning in used guns for cash so that they can pay the IRS. This happens every year.