Stats on before and after CCW

[mhdishere]

A co-worker (a self-proclaimed bleeding-heart liberal) said that he believed that if everyone were allowed to CCW that the murder rate would quadruple. When I told him that hadn't happened in the 38 states that have shall-issue CCW (I believe the 38 is correct, but Packing.org only lists 35). He was amazed that any state besides Texas allows CCW and asked me for stats specifically on what happened to murder rates in states where CCW has passed. Does anyone have links to such stats? Preferably from "official" sources like the DOJ, because if the stats come from the NRA he'll say they doctored the numbers, but the Brady bunch wouldn't do such a thing.

 

[Phantom Warrior]

This page on the Minnesota Department of Public Safety site lists the stats for concealed carry permit holder in the state of Minnesota for 2001, 2002, 2003. You have to scroll to the bottom of the page, but they are there. On about the third page of each report you will find the number of valid permit and then on about page eight you will find a break down of the number and type of crimes committed by permit holders. Always a small handful.

Shall-issue was passed in MN in May 2003, so that year is the report you'll be most interested in. I guess the 2004 report isn't out yet. Hope this helps. Be warned, anyone who takes the Brady Campaign seriously probably won't be swayed by mere facts. Off the top of my head, guncite.com may be helpful as well.

 

[Librarian]

WISQARS is your friend

Go to the Centers for Disease Control's WISQARS page; select
1. Homicide,
2. all injury,
3. Either select a state (pick from packing.org's list) or leave at United States, set the first year to 1981, the oldest data available,
4. go to the bottom of the page to 'select output groups' and if just one state, set to group by year, otherwise set to state, then year.
5. Submit request. Save the data

Then repeat, except at 2. select firearm; submit and save.

Draw lines across the data at the years you get for the effective date of CCW for that state.

Note that generally the rates of murders continue to decline overall, and the rates of firearms murders continue to decline, and there is no obvious change in the 'rate of change' of that decline. Note there are ZERO occurrences of rates quadrupling, tripling, doubling, or increasing by as much as 50%.

There are lots of quibbles about exactly when a CCW law can be said to have 'taken effect'; I think a good working definition is 'the first full calendar year after the effective date of the law', that is, measurements for an entire measuring period, usually a calendar year, are needed to see what effect, if any, the law may have had on crimes. E.g. if Texas's law had an effective date of Jul 1, 2005, 'pre-CCW' would be through Dec 31, 2005, and 'post-CCW' would be from Jan 1, 2006 onwards.

The research to date is mostly John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime ; that work has a lot of critics. The safest conclusion from the data is that CCW laws do NOT make things worse. Other claims for influence are contentious , to say the least.

 

[mhdishere]

Librarian,
That's REALLY great data from the CDC, now I'm running around trying to find out when the CCW laws passed. I found a bunch on packing.org, but it seems a lot of states CCW pre-dates that web site. Still, it's providing good data.

 

[Standing Wolf]

A co-worker (a self-proclaimed bleeding-heart liberal) said that he believed that if everyone were allowed to CCW that the murder rate would quadruple.

Leftists believe their irrational assumptions and fears trump the nation's civil rights.

 

[ksnecktieman]

Have you heard the term liars figger,,, and figgers lie??

Maybe you should attempt to bring this a little closer to home for him.
Ask him if anyone he knows would pick a fight with someone that was wearing a firearm.
Ask him if a professional armed robber will obey laws about a ccw license.
Ask him if that same professional armed robber would choose a victim with or without a gun.
Ask him if he has ever been mad enough to kill, if he had been armed.

If he is open minded, have him try John Lott's "More Guns, Less Crime", for comparative statistics.

If he is closed minded, tell him he does not have to carry, but he should not obstruct your choice to carry. That is what freedom means.

 

[Librarian]

The 2000 second edition of Lott's data notes law changes to non-discretionary CCW:

1985 - ME
1987 - FL
1988 - VA
1989 - PA, GA, WV
1990 - OR, ID
1991 - MT
1994 - AK, AZ, TN, WY
1995 - AR, NV, NC, OK, TX, UT

AL, CT, IN, NH, ND, SD, VT, WA all had non-discretionary laws from before then - Alabama's in 1936. But the 19 between 85 and 95 are a pretty good sample.

The Texas numbers (rates/100,000) are:
Non-FA FA Homicides
1981 4.78 11.34
1982 5.04 10.94
1983 4.49 9.41
1984 4.66 8.12
1985 4.39 8.18
1986 4.42 8.8
1987 3.89 7.04
1988 4.28 7.54
1989 4.07 7.66
1990 4.32 9.2
1991 4.47 10.43
1992 3.26 9.16
1993 3.33 8.41
1994 2.85 8.0
1995 2.64 6.18
1996 2.62 5.15
1997 2.38 4.58
1998 2.26 4.48
1999 2.53 3.71
2000 2.42 3.69
2001 2.52 3.92
2002 2.41 3.94

I'd call the break after 1995, and the FA murder numbers were actually declining from 1991; I doubt a 1995 law brought about a change in 1991-1992, but there certainly is no 'quadrupling' after the law passed.

 

[Big Mike]

I agree with what is written above:

John Lott, More Guns, Less Crime and his latest, The Bias Against Guns.

Either will induce intellectual coma on any argument. My opinion...but then again I'm biased as my copy of More Guns, Less Crime is signed by Lott.

Mike

 

[goalie]

A co-worker (a self-proclaimed bleeding-heart liberal) said that he believed that if everyone were allowed to CCW that the murder rate would quadruple.

Ask him why Vermont (where everyone can carry without a permit) is safer than Washington DC????

 

[NukemJim]

National Academy of Sciences did a review of studies on gun control laws ( both pro gun and anti gun ) on crime rate and came to the conclusion thatnone of the studies were valid in proving their case either for or against gun control.

http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309091241/html/

The committee found that answers to some of the most pressing questions cannot be addressed with existing data and research methods, however well designed. For example, despite a large body of research, the committee found no credible evidence that the passage of right-to-carry laws decreases or increases violent crime, and there is almost no empirical evidence that the more than 80 prevention programs focused on gun-related violence have had any effect on children’s behavior, knowledge, attitudes, or beliefs about firearms. The committee found that the data available on these questions are too weak to support unambiguous conclusions or strong policy statements.

quoted from the above link.

CDC did a big review of studies on gun control as well.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm

During 2000--2002, the Task Force on Community Preventive Services (the Task Force), an independent nonfederal task force, conducted a systematic review of scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of firearms laws in preventing violence, including violent crimes, suicide, and unintentional injury. The following laws were evaluated: bans on specified firearms or ammunition, restrictions on firearm acquisition, waiting periods for firearm acquisition, firearm registration and licensing of firearm owners, "shall issue" concealed weapon carry laws, child access prevention laws, zero tolerance laws for firearms in schools, and combinations of firearms laws. The Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws or combinations of laws reviewed on violent outcomes.

Quoted from the above link.

I would also suggest reading

http://www.crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/mythsofmurder.htm

Please note: I am very strongly in favor of CCW and would love it if the only mistake in Lott's work is that it underestimated the redcution in crime caused by CCW.

NukemJim

P.S. I am currently involved in a thread elsewhere on this subject where people claiming to be John Lott and Tim Lambert ( his harshest critic ) have both shown up on the thread so this might get interesting here

 

[MarkDido]

A co-worker (a self-proclaimed bleeding-heart liberal) said that he believed that if everyone were allowed to CCW that the murder rate would quadruple.

If he's that much of a "bleeding heart liberal", no amount of data you produce will change his mind.