The Next Ban: "Super Dangerous Class(es) of Weapons" - An Analysis Of The Crime Data

[damien]

OK, you have all read the quote from Paul Helmke on ABC News.

Universal background checks don't affect the right of self-defense in the home. Banning a super dangerous class of weapons, like assault weapons, also would not adversely affect the right of self-defense in the home," said Henigan. "Curbing large volume sales doesn't affect self-defense in the home.

Should we be concerned about this? Sure. Can we rebut it? Absolutely. The FBI has kept crime data per weapon type for the last two years and I think we are getting a refresh in a few months for the 2007 data. What weapons does Paul's think are 'super dangerous'? I don't know, but I expect that he is talking about evil 'assault' rifles like the AR-15 and AK-47. If semi-automatic rifles are 'super dangerous', I suppose we would either see that in the data or there is something wrong in Paul's assumptions. That data below tends to indicate that Paul's assumptions are wrong. I hope that whomever has to debate this guy in the media has these numbers to debate with:

"by State, Type of Weapon, 2005"

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_20.html

Total murders: 14,860
Total handgun murders: 7,543 50.8% of total
Total rifle murders: 442 3.0% of total
Total shotgun murders: 517 3.5% of total
Total unknown firearm murders: 1,598 10.6% of total
Total knife murders: 1,914 12.9% of total
Total other weapons: 1,954 13.1% of total
Total no weapon murers: 892 6.0% of total

"by State, Type of Weapon, 2006"

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_20.html

Total murders: 14,990
Total handgun murders: 7,795 52.0% of total
Total rifle murders: 436 2.9% of total
Total shotgun murders: 481 3.2% of total
Total unknown firearm murders: 1,465 9.8% of total
Total knife murders: 1,822 12.2% of total
Total other weapons: 2,158 14.4% of total
Total no weapon murders: 833 5.6% of total

Note: To get the totals, you have to download the Excel and use the AutoSum feature to sum the columns. Otherwise, it can be done by hand but it is far less convenient.

So what is this telling us? It looks to me that there are several things we can take away from this data:

1. The percent of murders committed with all rifles, not just semiautomatic, but all rifles including bolt actions, lever actions, single shots, and all other types account for only 3% of murders. The number commited with semi-automatic rifles is clearly even lower. I would ask Paul to try to support his assertion that rifles of any type are 'super dangerous' weapons.

2. Rifles represent the lowest danger of all weapon types, including hands and feet. The number of murders committed with no weapons at all is almost double the number of murders committed with rifles. The number of murders committed with a knife or other edged weapon is more than quadruple the number of murders committed with rifles. The number of murders committed with a blunt weapon is almost quintuple the number of murders committed with rifles. In fact, a person is more than eleven times more likely to be murdered with a knife, blunt object, or no weapon at all as compared to a rifle of any type.

3. Despite the fact that these weapons are said to be 'super dangerous' and are also said to be increasingly used by criminals by the Brady Campaign (I would like a quote for this but I can't find it), the percentage of murders committed with all rifles dropped from 3.0% to 2.9% between 2005 and 2006.

 

[ctdonath]

Funny thing, that ... most of what's touted as "too dangerous to allow anyone to own" proves to be the safest for those actually owned.

 

[TCB in TN]

Funny thing, that ... most of what's touted as "too dangerous to allow anyone to own" proves to be the safest for those actually owned.

So true!

 

[grilledcheese]

Please refrain from using logic when discussing the actions of politicians or our government in general.
Failure to heed this warning may result in serious bodily injury including but not limited to: catatonia, brain implosion, and being beaten to death by Carolyn MaCarthy with the "shoulder thing that goes up" end of an EBR.

Thank you,

The Management





Jeffrey

 

[Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow]

The nutballs have been saying for years that each of things things makes a gun more deadly (for various reasons):

1. Flash hiders (for sniping people without giving away your position)
2. Pistol grips (easier to control the gun when spraying massive amounts of lead in a child massacre; plus they allow one to shoot from the hip, which is somehow MORE deadly than aimed fire in the mind of an anti)
3. Folding stocks (hide the gun in a backpack on the bus on your way to the schoolyard massacre).
4. Bayonet lugs (attach a bayo to finish off the schoolchildren that you didn't cleanly put down when you run out of ammo)
5. Barrel shrouds (because they're a shoulder thing that goes up - DUH!)

But yeah, you gotta like the phrase "super dangerous class" as a front-runner for ridiculous hyperbole award.

 

[jws527]

I got a great laugh out of the Brady Campaign's description of "assault rifles:"

"Assault weapons are designed to be spray-fired from the hip, and because of their design, a shooter can maintain control of the weapon even while firing many rounds in rapid succession."

Somebody better tell these guys that they've got it all wrong:

The laughing stopped when I realized that there are many people out there would believe that.

And this gem:
"A barrel shroud, which is designed to cool the barrel so the firearm can shoot many rounds in rapid succession without overheating."

Yes, because a shrouded barrel will cool faster than an exposed barrel. Clearly these people are graduates of the same public school system that they're been destroying!

 

[3fgburner]

Even Better...

Take a look at this:
All Firearms 290,000,000 100% (Current best estimate)
Murder guns 10,100 0.003% (Exaggerated, assumes 1 murder / gun)
"clean" guns 289,989,900 99.997% (Guns not involved in a murder)

Looks even better in a pie chart

After you smack 'em with that, point out that ATF traced 400+ murders in DC, to 13 guns.

 

[damien]

Let's rework your numbers with something that resembles the total number of gus in the USA, not just the the total number of guns in Chicago.

All Firearms 290,000,000 100% (Current best estimate)
Murder guns 10,100 0.0035% (Exaggerated, assumes 1 murder / gun)
"clean" guns 289,989,900 99.9965% (Guns not involved in a murder)

 

[3fgburner]

Thanks. That's what I get for not using comma formatting. I dropped a zero.

 

[Bitmap]

I got a great laugh out of the Brady Campaign's description of "assault rifles:"

"Assault weapons are designed to be spray-fired from the hip, and because of their design, a shooter can maintain control of the weapon even while firing many rounds in rapid succession."

Somebody better tell these guys that they've got it all wrong:


The laughing stopped when I realized that there are many people out there would believe that.

And this gem:
"A barrel shroud, which is designed to cool the barrel so the firearm can shoot many rounds in rapid succession without overheating."

Yes, because a shrouded barrel will cool faster than an exposed barrel. Clearly these people are graduates of the same public school system that they're been destroying!

Don't forget "the shoulder thing that goes up."

Why is the guy in back pointing his gun at his buddies head? Is he related to Al Gore?

 

[Standing Wolf]

Well, yeah, but those mean nasty terrible evil malicious awful horrible assault rifles kill people deader than other guns.

Oh. Wait. Stop. There for a minute, I thought I was a leftist extremist. Sorry.

 

[Kharn]

Bitmap:
He's not, he's covering the area of the room behind the back of the man on the right.

Kharn

 

[damien]

FWIW, the 2007 data is out and the % of murders that were committed with rifles increase a little bit, but still right around 3%:

2005 data:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_20.html

Total murders............................14,860.....100.00%
Handguns..................................7,543......50.76%
Other weapons (non firearm, non edged)....1,954......13.15%
Edged weapons.............................1,914......12.88%
Firearms (type unknown)...................1,598......10.75%
Shotguns....................................517.......3.48%
Hands, fists, feet, etc.....................892.......6.00%
Rifles......................................442.......2.97%

2006 data:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_20.html

Total murders............................14,990.....100.00%
Handguns..................................7,795......52.00%
Other weapons (non firearm, non edged)....2,158......14.40%
Edged weapons.............................1,822......12.15%
Firearms (type unknown)...................1,465.......9.77%
Shotguns....................................481.......3.21%
Hands, fists, feet, etc.....................833.......5.56%
Rifles......................................436.......2.91%

2007 data:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_20.html

Total murders............................14,403.....100.00%
Handguns..................................7,086......49.20%
Other weapons (non firearm, non edged)....2,043......14.18%
Edged weapons.............................1,753......12.17%
Firearms (type unknown)...................1,819......12.63%
Shotguns....................................436.......3.02%
Hands, fists, feet, etc.....................827.......5.74%
Rifles......................................439.......3.05%

 

[buzz_knox]

Why is the guy in back pointing his gun at his buddies head? Is he related to Al Gore?

No, he's not related. You can tell because he actually is issued magazines and other gear necessary to achieve the mission. This is quite unlike Al Gore, who went on patrol with nothing to make the rifle go "bang" with.

Of course, you don't need any ammo when you are taking photos using an AR-15 around Franklin, TN.

 

[K-Romulus]

Well, one anticipated argument (based on the anti-gun-owners' past rantings about "disproportionate use against police") concerns the percentage of firearms out there that fit into the "assault weapon" category.

Like the bogus "Officer Down" study put out by the VPC, I foresee the following argument/rebuttal to your premise: "3% of murders committed by 1% of the guns = Three times as deadlier" or some such statistical nutbar-ery.

 

[Gottahaveone]

While rifles avg about 3%, handguns are averaging ~50%.
I can hear it now...."Half the murders committed in this country are committed with handguns." Speaking as a person who enjoys being allowed* to have a handgun on and about his person at all times, do we really want to fling these statistics around too much?

*Yeah, I KNOW it's a right, but the reality is that without big bro's permission, it ain't happening. It's how law abiding citizens STAY law abiding citizens......

 

[jonmerritt]

What part of the 2nd amendment says only in the home???? The supreme court didn't say we were limited to defending ourselves in our homes!

 

[benEzra]

FWIW, the 2007 data is out and the % of murders that were committed with rifles increase a little bit, but still right around 3%:

Only because some of the other numbers (particularly handguns) dropped. The absolute numbers stayed almost the same:

2005: 442
2006: 436
2007: 439

I suspect that the population increase 2006-2007 means that the absolute rifle murder rate (per 100K inhabitants) still declined, but I don't have those numbers at the moment.

 

[damien]

While rifles avg about 3%, handguns are averaging ~50%.
I can hear it now...."Half the murders committed in this country are committed with handguns." Speaking as a person who enjoys being allowed* to have a handgun on and about his person at all times, do we really want to fling these statistics around too much?

Yes, I think so. The reason is that the Supreme Court knows handguns are used in 50% of all homicides and still ruled that handgun ownership is a right under the 2nd Amendment, so I don't see the distribution of these statistics as being a threat. The fact is, Brady and VPC have been trumpeting that fact for a long time.

What is more important is that almost no one knows that rifles are only used in 3% of all murders. I think that is an important statistic to publicize. We don't know how the courts will rule on the possession of semiautomatic rifles, and I don't want to know. I want to fight that one in the court of public opinion and the legislatures and never have to find out.

 

[DoubleTapDrew]

I'm sure Helmke will sleep much more soundly at night knowing his neighbor is protecting his house with a .375H&H hunting rifle that might stop somewhere in the next zip code, rather than a super dangerous .223.
Rephrased and edited for content:

Universal background checks affect the right of self-defense in the home. Banning the most effective class of weapons, like our made up term: "assault weapons", also would adversely affect the right of self-defense in the home," said Henigan. "Curbing large volume sales doesn't affect self-defense in the home, but it can put gun shops out of business, and that's our #1 goal.

 

[Frank Ettin]

The idea that "super dangerous" weapons should get special treatment isn't new. At one time in Texas, homicide with a bowie knife was considered more serous than with other weapons. If a homicide would otherwise have been manslaughter, under Texas law it would be murder if committed with a bowie knife. (see Cockrum v. The State, 24 Texas 394 (1859), http://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/usr/wbardwel/public/nfalist/cockrum_v_state.txt )

 

[makanut]

Rifles present the lowest danger to the general public of all weapon types, yet somehow those eeeeeeeevil assault rifles must be stopped. My conclusion is that liberalism is a disease that must be stopped.