1776 Rebel
Member
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2007
- Messages
- 38
First let me say that I really didn't know where to post this thread (moderator - if it needs to be moved go ahead).
Let me start off with the following. The Japanese business folks have always intrigued me. It is typical for Western businesses to put together 1 year, 5 year, or even 10-year business plans. The Japanese are known to have a much longer outlook. Sony Corporation actually has a 200-year business plan. It is done not because they can read the future but as a way to stimulate thinking and focus on extreme long-term goals and activities.
Beretta has been around for 500 years. But what they churn out has changed significantly.
In light of the above I've been thinking about a couple of things recently.
First of all is the Heller decision. Obviously over a long stretch of time our Constitution is going to be evaluated and interpreted by the court system (assuming our system of government stays pretty much as is, might not though!). With that, the legislative and executive branches are going to play a role also over time. Commentators are even now talking about Heller spinning off 30 years of appeals. Where will the NRA be in 100 years?
Technology is going to change. Firearms are our interest. Gunpowder might or might not survive as a component of projectile firing mechanisms. Computer technology is beginning to be integrated into guns, etc.
Finally the social aspect of this. We see a decline in hunting but an up tick in CCW. As time goes by society and its mores change. (Maybe gun stores go away and you can actually order stuff over the Internet?)
So to make things simple, here is what I would like to get some input on. I would like a projection on the following questions with a time perspective of 50, 100 and 200 years from now.
1. Project out where the legal system will take our gun rights over time.
2. Project out where the firearms technology will be.
3. Project out what will societal attitudes be like.
I’ll start by putting my two cents in.
1. In 50 years I think we will have a much clearer pro-gun legal situation. I also believe we will not be operating on the world stage alone. I believe the inherent nature of man is going to move most of the western world more to the right and establish more conservative governments. It took most of the 20th century to get rid of out and out communism. Socialism will take the same. Further down the line I definitely see a good amount of consolidation of nations. I believe in north America the USA, Canada and Mexico possibly merging. But it will be American rights on guns that will prevail. Western Europe will join us in celebrating the right of the individual to own and use firearms for self defense.
2. As to technology I think gun powder is going to be around for another 200 years but in a diminishing status. It will be an antique. Boutique shops will conjure it up and sell small quantities. Just like flintlock muzzleloaders now are still around but not used in much other than staged target events or collecting. Guns will become intelligent devices. Easily recognizing the shooter, responding to voice commands and on the longer horizon even the target. “shoot the dude on the left in the green jacket”. Me thinks a lot of this could happen in the 50 year timeframe. In 100 to 200 years definitely. Wood stocks and steel go away. Everything is molded of composite materials and ceramic. Lots of copper wiring, batteries and chips. Software is going to be integrated into the device and that will be the big ticket item. Potentially the projectiles become intelligent themselves.
3. Since killing animals might be viewed more negatively, shocking or marking them might become ok. Basically a 400 yard shot on a bull elk to drop an orange paint marker on it (biodegradable of course). Or a Taser shot. So you can immobilize it and send a picture of you and the elk back to the wife and kiddies. I also see society having two distinct very strong drivers. Security and safety, and the other being communication and information. Bad guys will always be around. Whether it is the local thug or the international terrorist. So the individual will always want to be able to defend him/herself. That says people are going to want guns. The CCW movement I believe supports this. So CCW will increase and become a universal across the country. The second says that a lot of our ‘take for granted’ activities of hunting and shooting will happen over some medium like the web. Gun clubs and gun shows will be fewer in a 100 years. Actually shooting will be much rarer. Some areas of the country will have one or two “sanctioned” places to shoot. Other areas like out west will have more. Shooting will be more like SASS. Not to put them down, but shooting in itself will be like theatre. It will be embedded in something else. Dress up time. Social gatherings with most of the time spent doing something other.
Ok, those are my thoughts. How about yours?
Let me start off with the following. The Japanese business folks have always intrigued me. It is typical for Western businesses to put together 1 year, 5 year, or even 10-year business plans. The Japanese are known to have a much longer outlook. Sony Corporation actually has a 200-year business plan. It is done not because they can read the future but as a way to stimulate thinking and focus on extreme long-term goals and activities.
Beretta has been around for 500 years. But what they churn out has changed significantly.
In light of the above I've been thinking about a couple of things recently.
First of all is the Heller decision. Obviously over a long stretch of time our Constitution is going to be evaluated and interpreted by the court system (assuming our system of government stays pretty much as is, might not though!). With that, the legislative and executive branches are going to play a role also over time. Commentators are even now talking about Heller spinning off 30 years of appeals. Where will the NRA be in 100 years?
Technology is going to change. Firearms are our interest. Gunpowder might or might not survive as a component of projectile firing mechanisms. Computer technology is beginning to be integrated into guns, etc.
Finally the social aspect of this. We see a decline in hunting but an up tick in CCW. As time goes by society and its mores change. (Maybe gun stores go away and you can actually order stuff over the Internet?)
So to make things simple, here is what I would like to get some input on. I would like a projection on the following questions with a time perspective of 50, 100 and 200 years from now.
1. Project out where the legal system will take our gun rights over time.
2. Project out where the firearms technology will be.
3. Project out what will societal attitudes be like.
I’ll start by putting my two cents in.
1. In 50 years I think we will have a much clearer pro-gun legal situation. I also believe we will not be operating on the world stage alone. I believe the inherent nature of man is going to move most of the western world more to the right and establish more conservative governments. It took most of the 20th century to get rid of out and out communism. Socialism will take the same. Further down the line I definitely see a good amount of consolidation of nations. I believe in north America the USA, Canada and Mexico possibly merging. But it will be American rights on guns that will prevail. Western Europe will join us in celebrating the right of the individual to own and use firearms for self defense.
2. As to technology I think gun powder is going to be around for another 200 years but in a diminishing status. It will be an antique. Boutique shops will conjure it up and sell small quantities. Just like flintlock muzzleloaders now are still around but not used in much other than staged target events or collecting. Guns will become intelligent devices. Easily recognizing the shooter, responding to voice commands and on the longer horizon even the target. “shoot the dude on the left in the green jacket”. Me thinks a lot of this could happen in the 50 year timeframe. In 100 to 200 years definitely. Wood stocks and steel go away. Everything is molded of composite materials and ceramic. Lots of copper wiring, batteries and chips. Software is going to be integrated into the device and that will be the big ticket item. Potentially the projectiles become intelligent themselves.
3. Since killing animals might be viewed more negatively, shocking or marking them might become ok. Basically a 400 yard shot on a bull elk to drop an orange paint marker on it (biodegradable of course). Or a Taser shot. So you can immobilize it and send a picture of you and the elk back to the wife and kiddies. I also see society having two distinct very strong drivers. Security and safety, and the other being communication and information. Bad guys will always be around. Whether it is the local thug or the international terrorist. So the individual will always want to be able to defend him/herself. That says people are going to want guns. The CCW movement I believe supports this. So CCW will increase and become a universal across the country. The second says that a lot of our ‘take for granted’ activities of hunting and shooting will happen over some medium like the web. Gun clubs and gun shows will be fewer in a 100 years. Actually shooting will be much rarer. Some areas of the country will have one or two “sanctioned” places to shoot. Other areas like out west will have more. Shooting will be more like SASS. Not to put them down, but shooting in itself will be like theatre. It will be embedded in something else. Dress up time. Social gatherings with most of the time spent doing something other.
Ok, those are my thoughts. How about yours?
