The Shape of Things to Come - Guns in the Future

[jlbraun]

I have said in the past that I think the future of long range small arms is intelligent large caliber projectiles. Paint the 1000yd target with a laser, shoot a 20mm grenade. Puts more long range firepower into the hands of the average grunt. Basically, this would change warfare much the same way fire and forget missiles changed air combat.

Also I see more integration of autonomous weapons like UAVs. Soldiers will be able to call down fire from circling UAVs and get imagery from same.

Active denial systems are actually pretty easy to build - the components aren't restricted, the design for large W-band radars is 40+ years old, and the math for narrow beam antennas is 90 years old. Any civilian could build one.

Light gas guns - yes, I could see that being pretty neat.

 

[paramedic70002]

Remember that in many ways future facts will be shaped by current fiction.

Government of some form (probably a popular leader responding to a crisis will be appointed emperor) will initiate a crackdown the force and scope of which would embarrass the architects of Communism and Nazism. Utopian culture will be forced on the masses with criminal elements hunted and killed until they are unable to conduct business. All non military firearms will be outlawed. Citizens will have lawful privileges but no rights against the state. Once absolute control is achieved, nationalized security forces will replace all police and will carry stun weapons that utilize technology that does not exist today. Security cameras will be commonplace, even in the home. Any form of violent behavior, or talk of violence, will be managed by imprisonment, medical "treatment" and re-education.

Unless WE turn the tide, if we can.

 

[blkbrd666]

...and then there's the "Three Seashells".

 

[blackcash88]

I never did figure out what they were for.

 

[rocpyro]

The world will be a much more restrictive place. Guns? Hahaha, the ones that survive will be in museums.

 

[Rachen]

1. As for the legal system? I surely hope in the future, there will be a much wider understanding of history via the Internet, thus encouraging people to stand up for their rights, and thus, their right to keep and bear arms as well. Also, gun control has already been proven a dismal failure, evidenced by DC and Britain.

2. Technology wise, I don't think smart technology would be appreciated by traditional gunnies, now or later. I prefer my guns to be wood and steel, nothing else, maybe an aluminum riflescope, thats all. The military, on the other hand, is very technophilic, and will likely gobble up any technology that becomes handy, so I won't be surprised that the militaries of the world will start having Phaser-like weapons. However, a nice, original style 1911A1 isn't going to go away. Period.

3. As for hunting, it won't go away either. PETA and some others may label hunting as "inhumane", but to anyone with a brain, it should be obvious that hunting game with a rifle is surely much, much more humane than these cattle that were filmed being kicked, stabbed with forklifts, shocked, or skinned alive as seen on many commonly available videos. Hunting is also a proven survival method, and we have a very strong hunting tradition that has been passed down since the times Daniel Boone, and buckskin and deerleather and the good ol' Kentucky flintlock. Or even before, when the first Native Americans arrived on this soil and began hunting bison and mammoth with spear and arrow.

 

[1776 Rebel]

Here is another twist to this. An article the other day noted that some scientists are predicting robots that are self aware within 50 years. Even if it is 100 years it still fits in this discussions time frame.

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/259720.asp

If in fact we have such things running around. I wonder what the RKBA implications are for

1. Arming robots?
2. "killing" a robot?
3. Authorizing a robot to shoot a human?

Of course Asimov's rules will probably apply (oh no, I am bringing up a Sci Fi author - ok I get a pass, he did have his PhD in BioChem). But I am sure that someone or some organization or goverment will bypass those safeguards.

Remember 50 years is within the lifetime of the young'ns on this forum !!!

 

[Rachen]

If in fact we have such things running around. I wonder what the RKBA implications are for

1. Arming robots?
2. "killing" a robot?
3. Authorizing a robot to shoot a human?

If robots become self aware, they face the safe moral and ethical responsibilities as human beings. If a robot is out to harm people, of course, the people being harmed are justified to destroy it.

Arming robots for war, authorizing it to shoot, etc... Then that puts the robots on the same level as human beings. An dthat means they, or their creators, are also subject to the same laws as would regualr human beings. Most importantly the creator. Since one who orders a robot to kill a person would most likely use the "It's wasn't me, I have no responsibility" type of defense plea. HOWEVER, his/her actions have caused the robot to become fatal, and he/she will also face the consequences for such actions, whether it be hanging, firing squad, gassing, or electrocution.

 

[H088]

If a robots self aware, the creator has no control over its actions.

 

[Thernlund]

I expect to be alive 50 years from now.

I don't think projectile weapons are going anywhere for a long time. I don't think small arms will change much in the next 50, 100 or 200 years. You may see innovations in powder, ballistics, manufacturing methods and materials, ect. But the basic design and function won't change much. It hasn't in the past 100, I doubt it will in the next.

That said, I do remember laughing at a friend of mine 20 years ago when he told me that I would soon be able to get any information I wanted, even satellite photos of my own house, on a device about the size of a Pop-tart. I told him I just couldn't see it. A Star Trek communicator?? Silly. A Hitchhikers Guide to... whatever?? Non-sense!

I laugh at that memory as I look at a satellite photo of my own house on my Blackberry, and then send it to the same friend. Hmph.

There's just no telling. This is far and away the biggest reason that I don't want to die. Death doesn't scare me per se. But just think of all the things I might miss out on.


-T.

 

[Kind of Blued]

I understand how rapidly technology develops, but I also understand that we were supposed to be piloting flying cars by now.

I'm a pessimist on this issue in most people's minds, and a realist in my own.

I won't be alive to see it get really bad, which is not to say that I am old.

 

[Rachen]

If a robots self aware, the creator has no control over its actions.

However, being self aware doesn't necessarily mean that it possesses moral, ethical, or legal intelligence. An electric eye is also self aware: you walk up to a hotel or office door, doors open up. Thats self awareness. HOWEVER, if the same electric eye refuses to open the door for what appears to be a burglar or street thug, then, that becomes intelligence.

A robot can be self aware: It can run about and shoot everything it's sensors sense that is moving and alive, or do anything it's creators made it do, but that doesn't mean the said robot can actually think for itself, or wonder if it's actions are right or wrong.

 

[Titan6]

Jilbraun I can assure you the future is already here in much of your post.

The military will also become much more involved with directed energy weapons. At least they will if they don't want to become obsolete.

What does the political landscape look like? More socialism. People don't want the machine turned off. Once it becomes to expensive to run the social state all the freedoms will be gone. Not sure about the timeline though.

 

[Rachen]

What does the political landscape look like? More socialism. People don't want the machine turned off. Once it becomes to expensive to run the social state all the freedoms will be gone. Not sure about the timeline though.

And what will happen after freedoms are gone?

People will revolt. And overthrow the socialist regimes so they can correct the wrongs again. From there, where would it go? Back around the circle, of course.

It is just like a dynastic cycle. The Mandate Of Heaven always favors the ruler who can best act for the peoples' behalf. Once the ruler becomes tyrannical or intolerably oppressive, he will lose the Mandate of Heaven. And the cycle continues, as long as the biosphere exists.

 

[Prince Yamato]

I don't know why people always think the world is going to fall apart. I think it's actually pretty great, especially our country.

My prediction: The AR-15 people (soon to be the M-16 people after Heller) will put more electronic and tactical stuff on their guns, whilst I keep using my AK-47s- except this time, they'll have a happy switch .

 

[QuestionEverything]

In the next 50 years?

The global economy, whose smooth function is predicated on cheap energy and transportation, collapses in the face of rising fuel costs. The Western industrialized nations undergo massive social upheavals while China and India fight over resources, possibly involving Russia as well. Changing population dynamics lead to mass migrations of ethnic groups and some cases of genocide.

Many nations and cultures of people will realize that highly centralized governments and organizations are fragile and slow to adapt to people's needs, and an era of smaller, more localized governments and businesses will begin. I think it's likely that those who survive the period of collapse, particularly those who were helpless in the face of oppression by dying regimes, will recognize the value of an RKBA as a deterrent to tyranny.

As far as firearm design goes?

The firearms of the future will be accurate, ergonomic and reliable as well as cheap to produce. It can't be that hard to come up with a rifle that's as reliable and easy to manufacture as an AK and as accurate and ergonomic as an AR.

Things like smart projectiles and heat rays are unlikely to appear, because that kind of stuff depends on high-tech electronics that require a massive knowledge base and manufacturing infrastructure to produce. In an economically depressed world, integrating electronics into everything will be less feasible. The most lucrative technologies will be ones that create value without requiring a large manufacturing base or infrastructure. For instance, someone may invent a microbe that would convert human waste into nitrocellulose.

 

[Zedicus]

Handguns for personal defense may be replaced by hand held Active Denial Systems ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_Denial_System ).

One good EMP Blast and that thing would be useless.

I'll take Mechanical over Electronic Any Day.

 

[JesseL]

One good EMP Blast and that thing would be useless.

Protecting electronics from EMP is old hat for anyone who wants to bother to do so.

 

[macadore]

I am amazed by the number of doomsayers. In my childhood I was told that 1) the World would be overrun by “Godless Communism” and 2) civilization would be destroyed by a nuclear war and the survivors would be starving mutants. In 1968 Paul Ehrlich predicted that by the eighties the civilized world would be overrun by starving Third World countries. None of these predictions were even close. Instead, we have air conditioning and the Internet.

In 1976 the NRA told everyone that Ted Kennedy and the Democrats were going to take our guns. This was before Boxer, Feinstein, et al. At the time, it was illegal to import a PPK, but it was legal to manufacture machineguns and sell them to civilians. There were no firearms imported from East Block countries. Today, it is legal to import the PPK, firearms from former East Block countries, and even Russia. It is illegal to manufacture machineguns and sell them to civilians. Things are different, but not necessarily worse.

The future will be better than today. The Luddites will still not like it and talk about the “Good Old Days”. The Good Old Days weren’t that good. That’s why things changed.

 

[blackcash88]

Well, with China in bed with Cuba and going to drill for oil 60 miles off our coast, I could realistically see us going to war with China over this. And Russia, another nuclear power, WILL have China's back in that fight along with a potentially nuclear Iran down the road.