Nathanael_Greene
Member
Tons of silver and gold change hands on Ebay every day, with none of it being assayed.
To invest in Silver Bullion or Firearms?
- Thread starter LoadAmmo
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Father Knows Best
Member
palerider1 said:
Um, yeah. That's true but not very helpful. How do you buy anything "below current market value"? By definition, you can only buy something at market value, unless you have access to something that nobody else does. Second, how do you know what things have a market value that will "increase with time"? Investing would be a whole lot easier if I could buy stuff for less than it is currently worth and with a crystal ball to tell me what would go up in value.
palerider1 said:
"Past performance is not a guaranty of future results." Repeat that over and over. Don't buy what worked in the past. By definition, it has already run up. People who are quoting spectacular value gains to you are generally doing so because they need to unload those things and need you to take them off their hands. They're locking in their gains, and you're left with a highly appreciated asset that will probably never increase in value like that again, and may well decline.
When it comes to firearms, keep demographics in mind. WWII collectibles, including U.S. and German military firearms from the era, saw a huge run-up in value in the 1970s and 1980s. Why do you think that was? Simple. The "baby boom" generation was entering the age (25-45) where large numbers had disposable income, and as the children of WWII vets they had a distinct interest in the era. Thus, lots of children of vets got into collecting WWII stuff during the 1970s and 1980s. That meant big increases in demand. With a limited supply (by definition, as they ain't making any more genuine WWII collectibles), the increased demand drove prices up. Even non-WWII firearms suffered a spillover effect and ran up in value, but it was largely confined to items of particular U.S. historical interest, such as Civil War and Indian Wars/Old West collectibles and other U.S. made firearms of significance.
Prices have been level or even declining in the last 5-10 years, though. Why? Because those same collectors are moving on. They've lost interest, or are worried about retirement funds and selling off their collections, or they are sitting on their collections but just no longer buying (which dries up demand and depresses prices).
The same goes for muscle cars, which someone else suggested. Muscle car prices did indeed skyrocket as the boomers who couldn't afford those cars when they were teenagers or in their 20s suddenly had lots of discretionary income in their 40s and 50s. The peak has passed, though, and muscle car prices at big auctions have actually been falling, lately.
The key to investing in collectibles is to identify what the next big trend will be. When the current crop of twenty-somethings are hitting the stages in their lives where their kids are grown (or nearly there), and they have the time and money to indulge in a hobby, what are they gonna want? Buy that stuff now while it's still cheap.
palerider1
member
you can buy anything under market value if you look hard and are conservative about your purchases. car dealers, realestate investors, gun brokers, ect ect do it all the time. im thinking about putting an ad in the paper "we buy used guns" . i have alot of research and work to do before i do this but i have been sitting in the gunshop plenty of times when guys bring in their old guns that they havnt used in years and sell them for next to nothing. i saw a guy come in with 3 rifles that the dealer paid 25 bucks for...(no they wernt stolen) the guy had them around for years and years. the gun dealer spent 25 bucks, a little time soaking and cleaning them up and turn 25 bucks into 500 bucks when he sells the guns. now thats a profit. so yes,,,,,,,,,you can buy guns way way under market value.
LoadAmmo
Member
This has turned out to be a great thread.
Thanks everybody who posted with your insights.
I'm probably going to go with $1,000 in silver bullion.
Thanks everybody who posted with your insights.
I'm probably going to go with $1,000 in silver bullion.
Live Free Or Die
Member
LoadAmmo said:
I sure hope for your sake that you're right about the future of silver. Because as of today, 17 January 2006, silver is trading at an 18 year high. If you're playing the "buy low, sell high" game, you've chosen an interesting time to start.
OTOH, $1,000 is a modest sum to risk.
PlayTheAces
Member
Once upon a time I bought and sold coins on a small scale. Bulk silver coinage isn't a bad way to go, and usually trades in bags of $1000 face value. However, circulated coinage isn't like to ever increase in value above melt. What determines value is condition and rarity. The common modern silver coins were minted in vast quantities, and even large scale melting isn't likely to make the surviving populations rare or scarce. The fact they are circulated as well precludes them from being in the condition collectors look for.
As far as taking delivery or not, I subscribe to the following:
Here's a link to the full text of the above advice, from a fairly well respected bullion dealer's web site. Anyone thinking of investing in metals might want to read the full text - just one guy's opinion but he brings up points that I think have some validy.
CNI
As far as taking delivery or not, I subscribe to the following:
Here's a link to the full text of the above advice, from a fairly well respected bullion dealer's web site. Anyone thinking of investing in metals might want to read the full text - just one guy's opinion but he brings up points that I think have some validy.
CNI
Fred Fuller
Moderator Emeritus
Disclaimer: IANAE. (I am not an economist.)
My background is history. So I hope you can forgive me if my outlook on the subject is... well, not economic. Right now an ounce of silver is worth pretty much what an ounce of silver has ALWAYS been worth. That is, one ounce of silver. Ditto gold.
It is not the value of silver (or gold) that is changing. It is the unit of value in which the value of an ounce of silver is MEASURED that is changing. Silver (or gold) is not going up in price.
The dollar is going down. (That's what fiat currencies always have done. They eventually assume their intrinsic worth, every one that has ever existed previously has done so. What is the intrinsic worth of any fiat currency? ZERO.)
Of course that is absolutely backwards from what was originally intended in this country (who here is surprised at that?). As the framers originally had it, the dollar was to be a unit of measure of a certain weight of gold or silver of a certain purity. See http://www.fame.org/HTM/Vieira_Edwin_What_is_a_Dollar_EV-002.HTM for an essay on the convoluted history of the dollar.
So, where do dollars come from today? How are they created? What is their source of value? Do you know what the US debt is today? ( http://www.skymachines.com/US_National_Debt_Per_Capita_Percent_of_GDP_and_by_President_1976-2004.htm ) What are the limits to the creation of dollars, or of debt? Do you know who Ben Bernanke is and what his outlook on money is?
No, don't buy silver or gold as investments. If you buy them, think of them as insurance...
lpl/nc
My background is history. So I hope you can forgive me if my outlook on the subject is... well, not economic. Right now an ounce of silver is worth pretty much what an ounce of silver has ALWAYS been worth. That is, one ounce of silver. Ditto gold.
It is not the value of silver (or gold) that is changing. It is the unit of value in which the value of an ounce of silver is MEASURED that is changing. Silver (or gold) is not going up in price.
The dollar is going down. (That's what fiat currencies always have done. They eventually assume their intrinsic worth, every one that has ever existed previously has done so. What is the intrinsic worth of any fiat currency? ZERO.)
Of course that is absolutely backwards from what was originally intended in this country (who here is surprised at that?). As the framers originally had it, the dollar was to be a unit of measure of a certain weight of gold or silver of a certain purity. See http://www.fame.org/HTM/Vieira_Edwin_What_is_a_Dollar_EV-002.HTM for an essay on the convoluted history of the dollar.
So, where do dollars come from today? How are they created? What is their source of value? Do you know what the US debt is today? ( http://www.skymachines.com/US_National_Debt_Per_Capita_Percent_of_GDP_and_by_President_1976-2004.htm ) What are the limits to the creation of dollars, or of debt? Do you know who Ben Bernanke is and what his outlook on money is?
No, don't buy silver or gold as investments. If you buy them, think of them as insurance...
lpl/nc
SemiAutoMan
Member
Do both I have a room full of guns and a closet full of silver us/world coins I bought most of my silver when the price was at $6 so made $3 profit on the oz so far.
I bought most of my silver when the price was at $6 so made $3 profit on the oz so far.Linlan
Member
Guns verses precious metals ... ? ?
Been dealing in both a lot of years, last 5 years or so primarlly on the internet.
I've watched gold / silver rise and fall many times. A lot of experts claim precious metals are different now then back during the Hunt bros. days, and that may be true. But there is one thing about guns that I know for certain ... good quality modern or vintage guns have continued to rise every year on a steady pace.
One has to use good judgement and knowledge to see whats out there but if you use your head and keep abreast of what the market is .. its not very hard to get a steady growth in a gun collection of 5-10 % a year. Really depends on as I said buying or investing in good top of the line modern or vintage ( antique ) firearms. That 5-10 % won't set the world on fire but you can enjoy your hobby and make money on it at the same time.
The simplest advice I can give is quit buying 2-3 hundred dollar firearms 4 or 5 times a year and buy 1 $1500.00 investment gun once a year. More is not always better ! ; - )
Been dealing in both a lot of years, last 5 years or so primarlly on the internet.
I've watched gold / silver rise and fall many times. A lot of experts claim precious metals are different now then back during the Hunt bros. days, and that may be true. But there is one thing about guns that I know for certain ... good quality modern or vintage guns have continued to rise every year on a steady pace.
One has to use good judgement and knowledge to see whats out there but if you use your head and keep abreast of what the market is .. its not very hard to get a steady growth in a gun collection of 5-10 % a year. Really depends on as I said buying or investing in good top of the line modern or vintage ( antique ) firearms. That 5-10 % won't set the world on fire but you can enjoy your hobby and make money on it at the same time.
The simplest advice I can give is quit buying 2-3 hundred dollar firearms 4 or 5 times a year and buy 1 $1500.00 investment gun once a year. More is not always better ! ; - )
1911Tuner
Moderator Emeritus
re:
If faced with a decision, I gotta vote guns. As observed, precious metals
fluctuate on a daily basis. 'Tis here, 'tis gone...'Tis nothing. In the event of an economic breakdown or even collapse...which probably must happen, if you follow historic trends...guns can not only be bartered for other necessary goods, they can be put to use. All that silver and gold can do is sit there and bling. You can't eat it and you can't drink it. You can't even use it to start a fire with. Paper currency at least has THAT goin' for it. At such a time...if it does come and is of such a magnitude that money is worthless
for anything EXCEPT starting fires, a good gun will be worth its weight in platinum.
The other part of the equation is ammunition. Without it, the gun is worthless. If we look back on the debacle in New Orleans...pretty much a worst-case scenario...a socio-economic upheaval would leave many at the mercy of the hordes. A gun AND ammo to use would not only be a lifesaver for some few, they could buy you other things that you need. Ammunition, in particular, is easy divisible into unit value. A round for a Coke. Two rounds for a Moon pie and a Coke. A magazine full for a gallon of heating fuel, etc.
Just my 2% of a rapidly dwindling buck...
If faced with a decision, I gotta vote guns. As observed, precious metals
fluctuate on a daily basis. 'Tis here, 'tis gone...'Tis nothing. In the event of an economic breakdown or even collapse...which probably must happen, if you follow historic trends...guns can not only be bartered for other necessary goods, they can be put to use. All that silver and gold can do is sit there and bling. You can't eat it and you can't drink it. You can't even use it to start a fire with. Paper currency at least has THAT goin' for it. At such a time...if it does come and is of such a magnitude that money is worthless
for anything EXCEPT starting fires, a good gun will be worth its weight in platinum.
The other part of the equation is ammunition. Without it, the gun is worthless. If we look back on the debacle in New Orleans...pretty much a worst-case scenario...a socio-economic upheaval would leave many at the mercy of the hordes. A gun AND ammo to use would not only be a lifesaver for some few, they could buy you other things that you need. Ammunition, in particular, is easy divisible into unit value. A round for a Coke. Two rounds for a Moon pie and a Coke. A magazine full for a gallon of heating fuel, etc.
Just my 2% of a rapidly dwindling buck...
PlayTheAces
Member
Lee - I agree entirely with all your points. The value in bullion is simply what it's perceived to represent. In our case, it's value the metal is thought to represent versus the dollar (or equities, or pork bellies, or barrels of oil, or.......).
To get the thread back on a gun related basis, it's interesting to note that collecting coins and/or guns are similar in several points. Both disciplines value originality, rarity, and condition. Restored guns and cleaned coins tend to lose value. Counterfeiting is an issue as well. Coins are most likely counterfeited to a greater degree, but if you want to get a serious Mauser collector wound up, ask them about restamped SS sniper rifles.
I like to spread it around - a little gold here, a few guns there.
To get the thread back on a gun related basis, it's interesting to note that collecting coins and/or guns are similar in several points. Both disciplines value originality, rarity, and condition. Restored guns and cleaned coins tend to lose value. Counterfeiting is an issue as well. Coins are most likely counterfeited to a greater degree, but if you want to get a serious Mauser collector wound up, ask them about restamped SS sniper rifles.
I like to spread it around - a little gold here, a few guns there.
R127
Member
Inflation right now is probably at about 10% to 15% a year. Silver and gold are a safe haven from inflation, which has been eating away everyone's savings for the past 100 years and will continue to do so. Unless you conistently make more than 10% or 15% a year on your stocks and bonds you are not outperforming silver or gold, but you are at a greater risk to lose it all.
M3 is not going to be published after March, that means continued runaway printing of money, continued inflation. Dollars are scheduled to be dumped as the currency of choice for buying oil around this same time. The Asians are selling off US debt they own. Read the signs...
Anyway, numismatics won't mean anything post SHTF, that counts for guns, cars, coins, anything. Guns are good to have, but I won't be arming hungry, desperate people, only close friends and family, not a trade item till things stabilize again. Same goes for ammo. Precious metals always have been and always will be a stable way to store wealth and standard medium of trade. It's good to keep some on hand. If you're worried about a drop on spot, buy 40% Kennedy halfs as they contain silver but have a face value that give you a garaunteed bottom that is the most advantageous on the market.
M3 is not going to be published after March, that means continued runaway printing of money, continued inflation. Dollars are scheduled to be dumped as the currency of choice for buying oil around this same time. The Asians are selling off US debt they own. Read the signs...
Anyway, numismatics won't mean anything post SHTF, that counts for guns, cars, coins, anything. Guns are good to have, but I won't be arming hungry, desperate people, only close friends and family, not a trade item till things stabilize again. Same goes for ammo. Precious metals always have been and always will be a stable way to store wealth and standard medium of trade. It's good to keep some on hand. If you're worried about a drop on spot, buy 40% Kennedy halfs as they contain silver but have a face value that give you a garaunteed bottom that is the most advantageous on the market.
cracked butt
Member
If you want to speculate on precious metals, why not just buy contracts on the Chicago Commodities Exchange? No hassles with certifying gold or silver, no dilema about storing it vs having a broker store it, no highly specialized knowledge about coins is needed. Another bonus is that you get to leverage larger amounts of commodities than you could buy for the money, meaning larger upside on the investment. The downside is that you can lose the entire price of a contract. As someone else said, you don't invest in precious metals (metals don't produce a product or a service or even a dividend, they simply fluctuate in price), you speculate on them, same thing as commodity trading.
Someone mentioned muscle cars- yes these would have been a neat thing to put money into 15 years ago, but with 1969 chevelles and camaros selling for $60,000+ now and uncertainty about gasoline prices, its a prettty poor place to put money now.
Someone mentioned muscle cars- yes these would have been a neat thing to put money into 15 years ago, but with 1969 chevelles and camaros selling for $60,000+ now and uncertainty about gasoline prices, its a prettty poor place to put money now.
garyk/nm
Member
The standard axiom is buy low, sell high. Where are silver prices right now? Compared to the 3.25- 3.50/oz I paid in '97?
Has silver increased in value? Most definitely yes.
Will silver continue to increase? Those who want you to buy it would have you think so.
Go for the guns. You can buy a crate of Yugo SKSs for around $1800. What will happen to the price of Yugos when the supply dries up? Do the math.
Has silver increased in value? Most definitely yes.
Will silver continue to increase? Those who want you to buy it would have you think so.
Go for the guns. You can buy a crate of Yugo SKSs for around $1800. What will happen to the price of Yugos when the supply dries up? Do the math.
R127 said:
Um, you might want to check your source on that.
According to this inflation calculator,
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
inflation 2004 to 2005 was 2.7%.
What cost $100 in 2004 would cost $102.70 in 2005.
According to
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
the highest annual inflation rate since 2000 was 3.6 percent.
telomerase
Member
Just buy whatever class of guns will be banned next, and you'll make some money. We should get up a poll; I would expect all .50 BMG rifles to be banned first. Anyone else have an opinion on what will be banned in 2008? (Hmmm, I guess FDR did ban gold coins... guess it could go either way).
telomerase
Member
Seems a little hard to believe, looking at the prices of metals, oil, gas, etc.
I think the quantity of money has expanded at a lot more than 3.6 percent. Prices of many items have not risen as much as the quantity of money because we keep getting more efficient at making things. In the late 1800s, this was reflected in falling prices relative to gold.
Today, prices can't fall in terms of dollars because the Republican Congress and Emperor will print money just as fast as they can get away with.. or maybe a tad faster.
TABING
Member
One thing I found out in the 1979 silver run up; for example, I buy an oz. of silver today for $5.00, tomorrow the quote is $10., I go back to the dealer, the dealer isn't going to give me anything near $10. he gave $5.25.
When there is a hot market the buy-sell spread gets very big to protect the dealer. After commissions, it wasn't worth it.
I learned my lesson, and when prices plummeted, (and they always have), I started buying little bits every month. Over here any jewelry shop sells 5, 10, 20 gram, 1oz. 2oz. etc. pieces of 99.999 pure gold. It is produced and assayed in Swizerland and are in sealed, tamper proof plastic packets. Everyone recognizes them and they are easy to sell or exchange.
I would ALWAYS take delivery. Don't trust no one to hold my stuff, let alone some investment company.
"As through this world I wandered, I've seen lots of funny men, some will rob you with a six-gun, and some with a fountain pen". Woody Guthrie, song: Pretty Boy Floyd.
I like gold better than silver, it's less bulky, you can carry $25.000 in your pocket, you'd need a wheelbarrow to move that much silver. In a SHTF scenario, silver isn't that practical. I know we're talking investments. but it pays to factor in all options.
If you don't have a stockpile now, it's probably a little late to make a killing.
For investments, I'd buy NIB Colt 1911s. Yes, Yes, they may not be the best in some opinions, but they are the "world standard", everyone recognizes them and you could sell them in 24 hours in any of the free states in the country.
When there is a hot market the buy-sell spread gets very big to protect the dealer. After commissions, it wasn't worth it.
I learned my lesson, and when prices plummeted, (and they always have), I started buying little bits every month. Over here any jewelry shop sells 5, 10, 20 gram, 1oz. 2oz. etc. pieces of 99.999 pure gold. It is produced and assayed in Swizerland and are in sealed, tamper proof plastic packets. Everyone recognizes them and they are easy to sell or exchange.
I would ALWAYS take delivery. Don't trust no one to hold my stuff, let alone some investment company.
"As through this world I wandered, I've seen lots of funny men, some will rob you with a six-gun, and some with a fountain pen". Woody Guthrie, song: Pretty Boy Floyd.
I like gold better than silver, it's less bulky, you can carry $25.000 in your pocket, you'd need a wheelbarrow to move that much silver. In a SHTF scenario, silver isn't that practical. I know we're talking investments. but it pays to factor in all options.
If you don't have a stockpile now, it's probably a little late to make a killing.
For investments, I'd buy NIB Colt 1911s. Yes, Yes, they may not be the best in some opinions, but they are the "world standard", everyone recognizes them and you could sell them in 24 hours in any of the free states in the country.
I think it is important to recognize that precious metals do not climb in value per se. The "price per ounce" is only a representation of the rise or fall of one paper currency value. If silver goes from "$9 per ounce" to "$18 per ounce" it is the dollar that has lost value, not silver that has gained.
Precious metals have unique properties and therefore intrinsic value. As an "investment" they are really simply security against the busts of paper money.
The value of firearms is based on many things; rarity (not always), demand, and condition.
Or popularity - utility. A $125 well-used and beaten but fully serviceable Rem 870 might suddenly be worth double or triple to someone who wants or "needs one now" during civil unrest for example.
----------------------------------------------
http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org
Precious metals have unique properties and therefore intrinsic value. As an "investment" they are really simply security against the busts of paper money.
The value of firearms is based on many things; rarity (not always), demand, and condition.
Or popularity - utility. A $125 well-used and beaten but fully serviceable Rem 870 might suddenly be worth double or triple to someone who wants or "needs one now" during civil unrest for example.
----------------------------------------------
http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org
AStone
Member
value
About half way through reading this thread, I realized that my interpretation of the original question was different from at least 90% of other responders.
For me, the question of 'value' resides NOT in how much money ($) an 'investment' may bring in the future, but how well the 'investment' can be used as a tool to prolong my life.
For most, 'investment' assumes that money will continue to be worth something 20 years from now.
I happen to be one of those who thinks otherwise.
I'm one of those SHTF/TEOTWAWKI types who thinks that civilization as we've known it for, say, the 20th century will end during my life time.
When - not if, IMO - that happens, I'd MUCH rather have my 870, or my .22LR, or even my 9mm or .38 spl than an equivalent weight in silver, gold or diamonds.
I can't defend myself against intruders with gold or diamonds, let alone kill food with it.
If there are no functional stores from which to buy, what's the point?
Give me 12 ga, 9mm, .38 spl, & .22LR anyday, with a well-stocked ammo locker (yes, indeed) in a mobile transporter unit (10,000 GVWR) over silver anyday.
Nem
About half way through reading this thread, I realized that my interpretation of the original question was different from at least 90% of other responders.
For me, the question of 'value' resides NOT in how much money ($) an 'investment' may bring in the future, but how well the 'investment' can be used as a tool to prolong my life.
For most, 'investment' assumes that money will continue to be worth something 20 years from now.
I happen to be one of those who thinks otherwise.
I'm one of those SHTF/TEOTWAWKI types who thinks that civilization as we've known it for, say, the 20th century will end during my life time.
When - not if, IMO - that happens, I'd MUCH rather have my 870, or my .22LR, or even my 9mm or .38 spl than an equivalent weight in silver, gold or diamonds.
I can't defend myself against intruders with gold or diamonds, let alone kill food with it.
If there are no functional stores from which to buy, what's the point?
Give me 12 ga, 9mm, .38 spl, & .22LR anyday, with a well-stocked ammo locker (yes, indeed) in a mobile transporter unit (10,000 GVWR) over silver anyday.
Nem
R127
Member
I used to be very skeptical in my thinking regarding precious metals, until I started having enough money to have something to protect and became more interested in economics. This unfortunately happened only recently and as a result I won't be as strongly positioned as I'd like to be, but taking any action at all puts me way ahead of anyone who took no action.
Regarding inflation being around 10% to 15%, yes, that is shocking beyond all belief. The effects of inflation are largely concealed because of cheap foreign imports. Look at the major expenses of average Americans; gas, electricity and housing. Look at the cost of a barrel of oil, not long ago people were awestruck when it rose over $50/barrel. Anyway, to really understand the situation take a look at M3, the total ammount of money that the Fed has created, click the link below and scroll down to see a handy chart, and you had better be sitting down when you do,
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson112205.html
There is a sneaking suspicion amongst many that the government is trying to inflate away the national debt, similar to what the Germans tried after being heavily penalized after WWI. It is almost certain to have the same effect here and now as it did then. It is very telling that the Fed has been printing more than a trillion dollars a year for the past couple years, that's new actual dollars not new paper token to replace worn out paper tokens, and now is going to hide M3, the only measure of how much they are adding, in two months.
Also, the fed gov will have to increase the ammount of money they allow themselves to borrow simply to pay for day to day operations, in about two months. More money, more debt, you can see where this is going... this ponzi scheme is breaking down. If you have any doubts, just think of these three words, Baby Boom Retirement. I have heard that their medicare costs alone will exceed our entire current budget and everybody knows social security won't be there for us younger guys.
It simply is not safe to be heavily invested in the US dollar now. Since many other currencies rely heavily on the US dollar, it probably isn't safe to be heavy on them, either. If you had $1,000 US dollars in 1981, they would have HALF their buying power today, and that was at a much slower rate of real inflation than we are currently experiencing.
Silver and gold are and always will be safe havens. For you Christians and patriots, those are the only two forms of money aproved by both God and the US Constitution. Though it may appear their price fluctuates, as has already been pointed out dollars should be measured in terms of metals, not metals in terms of dollars. In terms of buying power, they don't really lose. In fact the only real hit in value that silver and gold took was when they were demonetized, that is, they were no longer the physical material money was made from or the physical material that was backing the money. That was simply a matter of supply and demand, if precious metals were monetized again their value would shoot through the roof. For example, monetized silver has historically been worth hundreds of dollars an ounce. In the event of a major economic meltdown metals could be monetized again, though I'm not banking on that.
Right now silver is tracking close to the inflation rate, making it a really good buy. That isn't a two-decade high price, that is the effect of inflation you are seeing. Gold seems to be growing faster than inflation, which means more risk, but it has a very strong basis upon which to be gaining that value and there is no reason to think it won't continue to rise. There are new factors in the market today, in India people are seeing more money than before, which means dowries and jewelry. In China the common people have just recently been granted the right to own gold and it will be distributed through their banks. Think about the size of the populations of these countries, as compared to the limited quantities of gold and silver available to purchase. For that matter, there is more paper silver being traded than physical silver. Silver is a safer bet than gold, that, percentage-wise has a higher potential gain. What's more is that silver is an industrial metal that is being consumed much faster than it can be mined, meaning that above ground stocks are being eaten away. There is likely less physical silver available for purchase than there is gold.
As to utility in a SHTF scenario, gold will not be as useful as silver. The reason is because it is already worth so much and will be worth even more then. The commonly used example is trying to buy a chicken with a $1,000 bill. Flashing your krugerands will probably get you whacked when somebody gets the impression you're some kind of apocolyptic billionaire. A much more useful form of money would be 90% coins, dimes, quarters and half dollars. Gold is great for transporting wealth, as noted you can fit your fortune in your pocket, and for that reason it isn't necessarily a bad thing to have, just use something else for your trading wampum.
In a SHTF scenario a can of beans, guns or bullets will be more useful than gold or silver. Maybe. That really depends on what happens. I used to believe in the end of civilization, because I love the apocolyptic movies of the 70's and 80's. Then I traveled the world and realized that things can go down the toilet but some semblance of society always remains, however seemingly uncivilized it is. In our most likely SHTF scenarios we will have an economic downturn or collapse which won't make the US into a Mad Max wasteland, but it will take everybody's money and make it hard to find work. You'll still need money, though. To pay your taxes, buy supplies, medical care, etc. Precious metals are just the ticket to preserve your wealth through such a scenario. That said, make sure you have the beans, bullets and blasters you need first. Those are basic necessities. If you're well stocked in those items, then you should look into metals. Land is a really good thing to own, too. 5 good acres and a modest house can feed and shelter you and your family. Get a small dairy cow like a dexter or something, some chickens or goats, plant some corn or potatoes, etc.
Anyway, just as a public service anouncement, do be aware that there is no reason to expect our economy to remain as good as it currently is. Expect a hard downturn and considerable devaluation of currency. Plan accordingly.
Regarding inflation being around 10% to 15%, yes, that is shocking beyond all belief. The effects of inflation are largely concealed because of cheap foreign imports. Look at the major expenses of average Americans; gas, electricity and housing. Look at the cost of a barrel of oil, not long ago people were awestruck when it rose over $50/barrel. Anyway, to really understand the situation take a look at M3, the total ammount of money that the Fed has created, click the link below and scroll down to see a handy chart, and you had better be sitting down when you do,
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson112205.html
There is a sneaking suspicion amongst many that the government is trying to inflate away the national debt, similar to what the Germans tried after being heavily penalized after WWI. It is almost certain to have the same effect here and now as it did then. It is very telling that the Fed has been printing more than a trillion dollars a year for the past couple years, that's new actual dollars not new paper token to replace worn out paper tokens, and now is going to hide M3, the only measure of how much they are adding, in two months.
Also, the fed gov will have to increase the ammount of money they allow themselves to borrow simply to pay for day to day operations, in about two months. More money, more debt, you can see where this is going... this ponzi scheme is breaking down. If you have any doubts, just think of these three words, Baby Boom Retirement. I have heard that their medicare costs alone will exceed our entire current budget and everybody knows social security won't be there for us younger guys.
It simply is not safe to be heavily invested in the US dollar now. Since many other currencies rely heavily on the US dollar, it probably isn't safe to be heavy on them, either. If you had $1,000 US dollars in 1981, they would have HALF their buying power today, and that was at a much slower rate of real inflation than we are currently experiencing.
Silver and gold are and always will be safe havens. For you Christians and patriots, those are the only two forms of money aproved by both God and the US Constitution. Though it may appear their price fluctuates, as has already been pointed out dollars should be measured in terms of metals, not metals in terms of dollars. In terms of buying power, they don't really lose. In fact the only real hit in value that silver and gold took was when they were demonetized, that is, they were no longer the physical material money was made from or the physical material that was backing the money. That was simply a matter of supply and demand, if precious metals were monetized again their value would shoot through the roof. For example, monetized silver has historically been worth hundreds of dollars an ounce. In the event of a major economic meltdown metals could be monetized again, though I'm not banking on that.
Right now silver is tracking close to the inflation rate, making it a really good buy. That isn't a two-decade high price, that is the effect of inflation you are seeing. Gold seems to be growing faster than inflation, which means more risk, but it has a very strong basis upon which to be gaining that value and there is no reason to think it won't continue to rise. There are new factors in the market today, in India people are seeing more money than before, which means dowries and jewelry. In China the common people have just recently been granted the right to own gold and it will be distributed through their banks. Think about the size of the populations of these countries, as compared to the limited quantities of gold and silver available to purchase. For that matter, there is more paper silver being traded than physical silver. Silver is a safer bet than gold, that, percentage-wise has a higher potential gain. What's more is that silver is an industrial metal that is being consumed much faster than it can be mined, meaning that above ground stocks are being eaten away. There is likely less physical silver available for purchase than there is gold.
As to utility in a SHTF scenario, gold will not be as useful as silver. The reason is because it is already worth so much and will be worth even more then. The commonly used example is trying to buy a chicken with a $1,000 bill. Flashing your krugerands will probably get you whacked when somebody gets the impression you're some kind of apocolyptic billionaire. A much more useful form of money would be 90% coins, dimes, quarters and half dollars. Gold is great for transporting wealth, as noted you can fit your fortune in your pocket, and for that reason it isn't necessarily a bad thing to have, just use something else for your trading wampum.
In a SHTF scenario a can of beans, guns or bullets will be more useful than gold or silver. Maybe. That really depends on what happens. I used to believe in the end of civilization, because I love the apocolyptic movies of the 70's and 80's. Then I traveled the world and realized that things can go down the toilet but some semblance of society always remains, however seemingly uncivilized it is. In our most likely SHTF scenarios we will have an economic downturn or collapse which won't make the US into a Mad Max wasteland, but it will take everybody's money and make it hard to find work. You'll still need money, though. To pay your taxes, buy supplies, medical care, etc. Precious metals are just the ticket to preserve your wealth through such a scenario. That said, make sure you have the beans, bullets and blasters you need first. Those are basic necessities. If you're well stocked in those items, then you should look into metals. Land is a really good thing to own, too. 5 good acres and a modest house can feed and shelter you and your family. Get a small dairy cow like a dexter or something, some chickens or goats, plant some corn or potatoes, etc.
Anyway, just as a public service anouncement, do be aware that there is no reason to expect our economy to remain as good as it currently is. Expect a hard downturn and considerable devaluation of currency. Plan accordingly.
mrmeval
Member
It's also overpriced with excessive shipping and handling.
Nathanael_Greene said:
mrmeval
Member
+1
The Yugo's will dry up completely. Silver will not yet.
In the 90s I bought a lot of inexpensive guns and everyone sold for more than I paid for it. The SKS and MAC90 earned more than I thought. I'd have made more in private sales but was desperate a the time.
An investment in mummy wrapped Yugos with log book and such would be a fine thing.
The Yugo's will dry up completely. Silver will not yet.
In the 90s I bought a lot of inexpensive guns and everyone sold for more than I paid for it. The SKS and MAC90 earned more than I thought. I'd have made more in private sales but was desperate a the time.
An investment in mummy wrapped Yugos with log book and such would be a fine thing.
garyk/nm said:
Gold. Gold. Gold.
The spike in silver back in the late 70s was a fluke. Silver is a very tightly controlled commodity.
Firearms could get banned for whatever reason...it IS a possiblity.
For long term investments, I'd advise mutual funds, EFTs, SPYDERS, stocks, etc, but only after much and deep research. There are other precious metals, mostly man made that can lead you to your "pot of gold" but, again, research.
For the short term, oil stocks and associated processing stocks (shipping, processing, storage, fuel cells, etc) can pay good returns. Just remember, many of the richest oil producing nations are converting their wealth to tourism as they are the first to admit that the writing is on the wall for oil.
There is no shortcut to wealth.
The spike in silver back in the late 70s was a fluke. Silver is a very tightly controlled commodity.
Firearms could get banned for whatever reason...it IS a possiblity.
For long term investments, I'd advise mutual funds, EFTs, SPYDERS, stocks, etc, but only after much and deep research. There are other precious metals, mostly man made that can lead you to your "pot of gold" but, again, research.
For the short term, oil stocks and associated processing stocks (shipping, processing, storage, fuel cells, etc) can pay good returns. Just remember, many of the richest oil producing nations are converting their wealth to tourism as they are the first to admit that the writing is on the wall for oil.
There is no shortcut to wealth.
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