Posted by JustinJ: Looking at violent crime rates in one's city and multiplying it by their life would be a good indicator except the numbers are extremely skewed by people who are victims because of illicit activities.
Again, the stats for a city constitute
averages, and the likelihood of victimization of any one person or group of people will differ from the average for many reasons.
Actually, one does not multiply the rate times the lifespan. The calculation involves an exponential function. In any event, for any person, the likelihood of being victimized at least one over a longer period is much longer than over a shorter period, and one should never base assessments for risk management on period statistics.
Murders and gunshot wounds that occur among those who are involved in illicit activities are certainly a major contributor to violent crime. On the other hand, crimes against criminals that do not result in death or in injuries that must be reported by medical persons (bullet and stab wounds) are often not reported. Are the numbers really "extremely skewed"?
To the extent that they may be, does that mean that law abiding persons are not at a meaningful level of risk of being victimized by criminals? I do not think so.
This is what i'm reffering to as opposed to wearing nice shoes.
My reference to that had to do with the fact that expensive footwear has in many instances provided a motive for strong-arm robbery that has resulted in death. Wearing such shoes increases the likelihood of victimization for good kids and bad and it is not an indication that one has been involved in something illicit (unless, of course, the victim is the second owner who acquired the shoes unlawfully). One who wears expensive shoes these days may learn that the assertion that 'Kids...don't tend to get mugged, being kids and all' is not something upon which to rely.
This is exactly why the rates drop dramatically as the demographic gets older.
I'm not sure what it is to which you are attributing a reduction in crime rate with increasing age.
The reduction in number of older people who
commit violent crimes could probably be attibuted to changes in aggressiveness related to hormonal balances; to better economic status and having "more to lose"; and possibly, to attrition.
I'm not sure how the statistics of
victimization vary with age. Middle aged people are less likely than young adults to frequent bars, but they usually make much more attractive targets for car jacking, armed robberies around places of high value entertainment, and attacks at cash machines. It does seem that there is little or no correlation at all between the risk of being a victim of random gang violence such as the "knockout game" and the age of the victims.
Certainly, when young people run in bad circles and engage in illicit activity, they do put themselves at higher risk, but I do not see any basis for concluding from crime statistics or from anything else that the chances of young people who do not do so becoming the victims of violent crime are "quite slight". Maybe today, maybe nest week, but not so much over the lifetime.
And of course, there is the other dimension--the severity of the potential consequences. The
number of people who attend a large, well known private untiversity nearby who have been mugged, robbed, raped, and/or murdered in recent months is actually quite small. But people who attend school there have been advised to take extraordinary precautions, including taking University-provided cars when going home from the library or classes at night, walking in large groups, etc..
These are most often minors, but from the standpoint of availability of tools for self defense, university restrictions put them all in the same boat.