The Ghost Gun Issue as a Straw Horse

A no compromise attitude is much simpler. After all, that is what the opposition is essentially doing. The key difference is our superior intellect on the subject as a whole, and in general.

"Ghost guns have become popular in recent years, but because they are untraceable, there is no good data indicating how many have been sold or are in circulation, says Alex McCourt, director of legal research at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Prevention and Policy. According to a 2020 report from Everytown for Gun Safety, an anti-gun violence nonprofit, many ghost gun sellers found “their inventories stretched thin” because of increased demand in 2020."

"Some law enforcement agencies are recovering more ghost guns from crime scenes. In Philadelphia, for example, 99 ghost guns were recovered in 2019, jumping to 250 in 2020. And, as of mid-March this year, more than 80 had been recovered, according to Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro."

So if we extrapolate 100 x 50 states that is 5000 ghost guns that we can account for, how many total is still an unknown. Note: statistical data used is based on 2019 info but purchased data is 2020.

40 million guns purchased in 2020

5000/40000000 = .000125 if you only count gun sales in 2020

393 million guns in US per this report https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/guns-per-capita

so, 5000/393000000 = .00001272264


so, yep a bunch of zeros before a significant number

Now, interesting and on topic, this same report has a table of "Registered" firearms by state - somebody apparently has a database of "registered" guns.

Also, this same report says:
"
Rhode Island and New York have the lowest guns per capita of 3 per 1,000 people each. These states also have some of the lowest gun ownership overall, with only 14.8% of Rhode Island residents owning a gun and only 19.9% of New York residents owning a gun. The three other states with the lowest guns per capita, all with 5 per 1,000, are:

Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts

Similar to Rhode Island and New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts have the lowest gun ownership rates in the U.S., with only 14.7% of each state's residents owning a gun. Unlike the states with higher guns per capita, these states all have some of the country's strictest gun laws. For example, New Jersey requires guns to be registered, requires a permit to purchase, a permit to carry, and does not allow open carry. Fortunately, these states also have the lowest numbers of gun deaths."

Well, do your own research and you will find that:

Delaware - 53 in 2019
Hawaii - 35 in 2019
Massachusetts - 157 in 2019
Rhode Island - 23 in 2019
New York - 601 in 2019

The actual lowest "deaths" 5 are:
WY 25
ME 23
RI 23
ND 21
VT 11

So Rhode Island is actually the only one of the 5 mentioned that are in the lowest 5 - (Remember how stats lie), they don't mention it in their article, but I suspect they are using some per capita measurement of "Death Rates" data to make their low gun ownership states look better - New York as an example. Also they are using only registered guns not all guns which is roughly 5 million guns total - not 393 million.

Also:
Guns per Capita by State
The number of firearms per capita ranges significantly between states. The lowest is 3 per 1,000 people in Rhode Island and New York, to 229 per 1,000 people in Wyoming.

Wyoming has, by far, the highest number of guns per capita. Of Wyoming's 581,075 people, there are 132,806 registered guns. The four other states with the highest number of guns per capita are:

• New Hampshire: 47 per 1,000
• New Mexico: 46 per 1,000
• Virginia: 36 per 1,000
• Alabama: 33 per 1,000

Seventeen states have at least 20 guns per capita. Of these states, Texas has the most registered guns, with 588,696. Due to Texas's population size, its guns per capita is 21 per 1,000 people. New Hampshire, which has the second-highest guns per capita, has some of the most relaxed firearm laws in the U.S., including no requirement to register your gun. This is the case in many other states, so it's important to remember that the majority of guns in the U.S. are not registered

Just some food for thought:

I don't think it matters what percentage of all guns are ghost guns.

It may matter what percentage of all guns recovered from crime scenes are ghost guns.

WrongHanded said:

I don't think it matters what percentage of all guns are ghost guns.

It may matter what percentage of all guns recovered from crime scenes are ghost guns.

Click to expand...

I also question how many of these "Ghost Guns" are guns that have had serial numbers ground off vs guns that were built by the criminal from an 80%.

webrx said:

I also question how many of these "Ghost Guns" are guns that have had serial numbers ground off vs guns that were built by the criminal from an 80%.

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You'd hope that the LE employee responsible for cataloguing such items would understand the difference. And I'd think unless the manufacturer's name is also removed, that would be a pretty good indicator (in most cases) of whether the gun was originally serialized or not. I'm not aware of any manufacturers who sell completed firearms and also 80% receivers. But ignorance on my part is not evidence.

Yeah, but Ghost Guns covers both, so, who knows.

webrx said:

Yeah, but Ghost Guns covers both, so, who knows.

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I hadn't previously considered that. It's certainly an interesting point.

"While there are no reliable statistics on how many privately made firearms are being recovered in crimes, since the issue rose to prominence in California, ATF has documented recoveries of ghost guns in 38 States plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.[15] ATF noted an increasing number of ghost gun seizures every year since 2016, and over 1,600 of these firearms have been entered into NIBIN"

"Overseas production centers of unmarked firearms include China, the Khyber Pass area of Pakistan and the Philippines; the Philippines are especially known for the production of .45 caliber semi-automatic pistols.[5"

Notable crimes[edit]
Unserialized firearms have been used in at least two shooting sprees in California, most notably one at Rancho Tehama Reserve in 2017 by a man who was barred from possessing guns. The shooter also carried and primarily used three firearms he had illegally acquired that were not privately made firearms. [3][19][20][21] Additionally, firearms with scraped off serial numbers have been used in numerous crimes, however, an altered gun is not the same as a homemade firearm.

California[edit]
In 2014, California attempted to enact a law to require serial numbers on unfinished receivers and all other firearms, including antique guns,[23] but it was vetoed by the governor.[24] However, in 2016, it passed a measure requiring anyone planning to build a homemade firearm to obtain a serial number from the state (de facto registration) and pass a background check.[25] From July 1, 2024, "firearm precursor parts" may only be sold through a licensed dealer.[26]

Connecticut[edit]
Since October 1, 2019, all manufactured guns must have a serial number obtained from the Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection engraved.[27] Any Plastic gun that "after removal of grips, stocks and magazines, is not ...detectible" by metal detectors is banned under Connecticut law.[28]

New Jersey[edit]
S2465, enacted in November 2018, prohibits the manufacture and sale of guns or parts that are or can become an untraceable firearm.[29] Multiple arrests were made within months of this law going into effect. Attorney General Gurbir Grewal aggressively prosecuted infractions of this law. New Jersey filed a lawsuit against U.S. Patriot Armory, a company that allegedly sold AR-15 build kits to NJ residents.[30] In July 2019, S3897 was enacted, which criminalizes transferring or possessing unserialized firearms.[31]

New York[edit]
In 2015, during the state of New York's first prosecution for sale of privately made firearms, Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said that it was "easy" for "criminals to make completely untraceable, military-grade firearms."[32] In 2019, New York passed a law to prohibit the making, selling, transporting or possessing 3-D-printed guns or other undetectable firearms.[33]

Pennsylvania[edit]
Attorney General Josh Shapiro issued a legal opinion in December 2019 that 80% lower receivers are considered firearms.[34] A legal challenge ensued[35] and in January 2020 Commonwealth Court issued a preliminary injunction blocking AG Shapiro's opinion.[36][37]


Interesting:

How long have ghost guns been around?
Ghost guns aren’t new, but they are a growing problem. Even though kits to assemble guns have been sold since the 1990s, the market did not really take off until around 2009. At the time, firearm sellers in California began offering unfinished receivers for the AR-15 and AK-47 series of guns, in an attempt to circumvent the state’s assault weapons laws, according to T. Christian Heyne, the vice president for policy at the Brady United Against Gun Violence organization.

The problem of ghost guns did not become well known until 2013, when one was linked to a shooting at Santa Monica College in California, which killed six people, including the gunman.

Sales of ghost guns started to rise substantially around 2016, as people began buying kits to recreate a firearm based on the Glock 9-millimeter semiautomatic pistol.

How prevalent are they now?
There is no way to know how many ghost guns are in circulation because they do not have serial numbers and no background check is required to purchase them.

But data shows that their prevalence appears to be growing every year, especially in states like California that have strict gun laws.

So, if this is the case, then would it be a straw man argument to say, removing strict gun laws, will reduce the number of Ghost Guns? ‍

d

webrx said:

How prevalent are they now?
There is no way to know how many ghost guns are in circulation because they do not have serial numbers and no background check is required to purchase them.

But data shows that their prevalence appears to be growing every year, especially in states like California that have strict gun laws.

So, if this is the case, then would it be a straw man argument to say, removing strict gun laws, will reduce the number of Ghost Guns? ‍

d

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There's certainly the argument that if we don't want anyone to break gun laws, we shouldn't have any gun laws. But that leave us with another problem.

Restricting anything will never work 100%. But it can certainly reduce the opportunity for abuse. Restricting a fully made weapon, but allowing kits to be bought by anyone (whether they are prohibited or not), leaves a gigantic gapping hole. It's not much good having a steel front door in a reinforced frame with multiple deadbolts, if your backdoor is just a screen door, and left unlocked to boot.

So if restriction is the path our society is going to continue pursuing, in attempt to keep guns from the hands of dangerous people (whom society has deemed should not have access to them), the answer is obvious: close the loopholes.

If we're not going to do that, all the current legislation regarding FFL records, background checks, etc is simply pointless. And as was said in another thread a month or so ago; we might as well sell guns on supermarket shelves.

The other option (as previously mentioned) is to make the consequences for criminal activity far far more serious. But I think you'll find that a hard sell to the gun-control folks, who already think they know the answer.

I wonder how many of the founding fathers had ghost guns?

100%, enforce the laws that work, make deterrents that have an effect, for repeat offenders, well, make that deterrent even stiffer and extremely unwanted. 3 strike rules? 2 strike rules for violent, etc.

Law abiding citizens - No restrictions
Criminals - enforce the laws
Those who have paid their debt, rights restored
Repeat violent offenders, take them off the streets (one way or another)

Also, a serious study of where the violent crime is occuring, why, and do something to stop it there. something like (and I have to look it up) 50% of all Gun Crime occurs in 5 major cities - Gangs? Drugs?, etc, etc, etc.

d

We are wandering a touch, the idea of making the consequences of criminal activity more harsh flies in the reality of the causality of much economically and culturally motivated criminal behavior. It won't work to be blunt if we want to keep a free society. As in the other thread, if the kit guns are a significant channel of guns to criminals outside of the current checks, that is a problem in some people's mind. You may want to abolish all purchase checks on firearms but you will have to deal with increasing easy access to firearms to people you may not want to have them. Yes, criminals and those with relevant psychiatric problems are getting guns, do you want to make it easier? You may want to assembly a long gun or a Glock kit for your hobby. However, the flow of such into criminal hands, if significant is or isn't a problem?

That is the core question? We really went over all this before.

Gem - Yes, there are other factors, aka, psychiatric, suicide, etc. So, I get it, As stated before, I think the ghost gun thing is not going to solve anything, that is not from my research where a large percentage of criminals get their guns, yes, there have been a handful of people who should not have had guns, that have used ghost guns (some removed serial numbers, some built them, etc).

Maybe stop selling them online, so, 16 year olds can't buy them? Maybe put a serial number on them, and keep records, just like they do for everything else, heck, you can look up my washing machine and refrigerator have serial numbers, and which could be used to determine who bought it if I were to dump it someplace.

For law abiding citizens who buy an 80%, it has a serial number on it, the seller has to keep a record of serial number with the sale, which should be pretty easy, since they already have records of sales, and if it gets used illegally, it gets looked up through the manufacturer, seems like the easy solution rather than another BGC law.

d

WrongHanded said:

...all the current legislation regarding FFL records, background checks, etc is simply pointless. And as was said in another thread a month or so ago; we might as well sell guns on supermarket shelves.

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Best idea so far! I can get behind that. I remember when they were on Western Auto shelves; it didn't seem to be much of an issue.

Yes, I know that's probably not how you meant it, but I'm completely serious. If the intent is to reduce crime, the focus should be on the actions and the perpetrators, not the misuse of a tiny fraction of one group of inanimate objects. (Hey, that even used to be a principle of law - "Abusus not tollit usum")

webrx said:

I also question how many of these "Ghost Guns" are guns that have had serial numbers ground off vs guns that were built by the criminal from an 80%.

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Me too.

DrDeFab said:

Best idea so far! I can get behind that. I remember when they were on Western Auto shelves; it didn't seem to be much of an issue.

Yes, I know that's probably not how you meant it, but I'm completely serious. If the intent is to reduce crime, the focus should be on the actions and the perpetrators, not the misuse of a tiny fraction of one group of inanimate objects. (Hey, that even used to be a principle of law - "Abusus not tollit usum")

Click to expand...

If I use my imagination, I can envision an America where crime is at historic lows. And I can imagine it being that way because there's no such thing as a repeat offender, and very few people are willing to cross that legal line as a direct result. Guns are easy to buy because there are very few restrictions, and yet society is polite and peaceful.

But the road from here to that imaginary version of our country is far from clear to me.

SharpDog said:

IMHO: The current administration's fight against ghost guns is really a straw horse for universal background checks and ultimately, universal gun registration.

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Every piece of gun legislation ever presented by the federal government is an effort to disarm the citizens. This particular effort is only one of the "death by 1000 cuts" approach that has been working for them so far.

What about incomplete ("80%") receivers that are purchased with no intention of ever completing them? For example, someone might want to assemble a "dummy" gun. Are these going to be required to be serialized and transferred like regular, live guns? I myself have two "dummy" Thompsons that I assembled in this way. I went ahead and engraved serial numbers on them, but if they are going to be considered "real" guns, they would also be considered NFA contraband. This is looking like a can of worms. Unless.... they also allow an open season amnesty to allow registration of such things. I would be OK with that.

GEM said:

We are wandering a touch, the idea of making the consequences of criminal activity more harsh flies in the reality of the causality of much economically and culturally motivated criminal behavior. It won't work to be blunt if we want to keep a free society.

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are you saying we have to pander to criminals in order to keep our free society?

That’s exactly the opposite of what we need to do. We are all losing our freedoms because we will not enforce and punish the offenders. Every day more laws are passed which only limit the freedom of law abiding citizens. Laws them selves never impede the criminal. Only punishment and/or execution impede criminal behavior. We either have anarchy or we have limited freedoms based on obedience to a set of laws by most citizens.

Your opinion is your own, my reading of the causes of economically and culturally motivated crime suggest otherwise. Increasing executions is not a society I would be happy with. Increased incarceration has not done much and is a negative in the long run. Want to lower crime - the answer is well known - decent economic opportunity for young men and breaking the culture that lack of opportunity generates. This has been seen across the ages and cultures. Economic opportunity is not pandering.

Yes, we should have executions for drug users! Execute 15% of the population. Execute those poor bastards hooked on oxy and meth! Not to continue this diversion too much but a good read on this is :

A Peculiar Indifference: The Neglected Toll of Violence on Black America Hardcover – September 15, 2020
by Elliott Currie (Author)

Goes over the factors in crime in a thorough manner to the earliest criminological/sociological/anthropological work

We are wandering off the topic of ghost guns. The last time we did this, it was asked if you had to buy a P80 kit or an 80 % AR receiver and it had to go through an FFL, would you buy it for your hobby? Hell, no - some said the reason was to avoid 'registration' by the NICS or similar checks. But does that mean you never buy an intact gun that goes through the checks?

The more important issue to have either a legislative or Scotus action that forbids banning types of guns and magazines. If that occurs and we keep the current NICS, etc. system - that's a more important win.

GEM said:

economically and culturally motivated criminal behavior

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Not everybody buys this. There are plenty of people who grew up in poverty-stricken single-parent homes who did not become criminals, instead making positive contributions to society. Dr Ben Carson is the best-known example.

As for the "culture" part, this is not genetic or something, it has been created by governmental actions that need to be reversed.

AlexanderA said:

What about incomplete ("80%") receivers that are purchased with no intention of ever completing them? For example, someone might want to assemble a "dummy" gun. Are these going to be required to be serialized and transferred like regular, live guns? I myself have two "dummy" Thompsons that I assembled in this way. I went ahead and engraved serial numbers on them, but if they are going to be considered "real" guns, they would also be considered NFA contraband. This is looking like a can of worms. Unless.... they also allow an open season amnesty to allow registration of such things. I would be OK with that.

Click to expand...

What exactly is a "dummy" gun?

Of course, people overcame their background but an individual or two or more doesn't negate the overall effect of such. Of course, culture isn't genetic, who ever said it was. Yes, governmental actions and societal actions that led to folks being in dire straights need to be reversed.

Let's get back on ghost guns again, various theories of society are off topic. I'm contributing to it but let's stop it.