President of Federal on ammo shortage

Status
Not open for further replies.
bassjam said:
It's unreasonable to expect ammo companies to stockpile 1-2 years worth of ammo for 8-12 years just to be prepared for the next panic buy. And had Covid not happened, it realistically could have been that long. They'd have to expend hundreds of millions in materials and overtime labor that they won't get a return on for years and years. They'd have to store the ammo loose and pack when needed, or go ahead and pack it in normal paperboard packaging that starts to deteriorate in humidity or when it dries out. They'd have to rent or buy a royal $h!tload of warehouse space, and I'm sure the insurance costs for warehousing to store ammo are pretty costly. Then there's the constant inventory management and labor to keep track of everything and cycle through it in the warehouse to ensure none of it is too old, vs normally when they'd just send it straight out the shipping docks from the manufacturing facility direct to distribution. Not to mention the political firestorm they'd receive once the media finds out they have that much ammo saved up. You can bet at least one of the governors in a state where one of those warehouses is would attempt to pass laws preventing such a thing or at least heavily taxing them.
Click to expand...

Why would they be waiting 8-12 years for a 4 year cycle?

Covid made the problem worse, but it would have happened. It started happening BEFORE covid hit with O'roarke's saber rattling back in fall of 2019. Never mind all the political unrest and riots dating back to 2019 that also had people running scared and buying up ammo. Trump was never in a position to be a shoe-in for the next term of office. There was going to be a run on ammo just like with the previous few elections and the signs were there.

It may be unreasonable to expect them to build up extra supply for a cyclic ultra high demand, but at the same time, it is exceptionally naive to believe that they didn't see this coming. How could you not? It is like people who build homes or cities in the flood plain and then seem surprised when it floods.

I have to laugh at the ammo companies and I have to laugh at so many of the consumers that this keeps happening to. They all act like this is completely new, never happened, no way to ever predict it could happen, yet we have seen it happen over and over again.

You know what? It will happen again in 2024. And in 2024, the ammo companies likely will not have done anything in anticipation of it despite the profits to be made. They will stay the safe, conservative course. Consumers will be shocked, AGAIN, that ammo is in short supply.
 
Double Naught Spy said:
Why would they be waiting 8-12 years for a 4 year cycle?

Covid made the problem worse, but it would have happened. It started happening BEFORE covid hit with O'roarke's saber rattling back in fall of 2019. Never mind all the political unrest and riots dating back to 2019 that also had people running scared and buying up ammo. Trump was never in a position to be a shoe-in for the next term of office. There was going to be a run on ammo just like with the previous few elections and the signs were there.

It may be unreasonable to expect them to build up extra supply for a cyclic ultra high demand, but at the same time, it is exceptionally naive to believe that they didn't see this coming. How could you not? It is like people who build homes or cities in the flood plain and then seem surprised when it floods.

I have to laugh at the ammo companies and I have to laugh at so many of the consumers that this keeps happening to. They all act like this is completely new, never happened, no way to ever predict it could happen, yet we have seen it happen over and over again.

You know what? It will happen again in 2024. And in 2024, the ammo companies likely will not have done anything in anticipation of it despite the profits to be made. They will stay the safe, conservative course. Consumers will be shocked, AGAIN, that ammo is in short supply.
Click to expand...

A normal election cycle is nothing like what is happening now. You could still buy ammo in 2008 for the most part, though there was a slight panic buy. Things were fine in 2012 until Sandy Hook and the subsequent talk of gun control. I don't remember even the slightest shortage in 2016 and the entire country was almost certain that Clinton would win that election! Those were still the days of $500 AR15's and $0.17/round 9mm. Covid caught EVERYONE by surprise and was the match that started this fire. You could still buy whatever ammo you wanted, at great prices, up until Feb/March of 2020. You could still buy toilet paper and Lysol then too, but panic buying wiped out store shelves of those items as well. Had Covid not happened, there was a much, MUCH greater chance of Trump winning re-election. I'd say it was an almost certainty. Things were good, especially the economy, and voters are reluctant to change things when the economy is strong. The "political unrest and riots" you speak of got much worse in 2020 after people were suddenly off work with nothing better to do, which again fed fuel to the fire Covid started. What's going on right now is truly unprecedented and there is no way anyone could have been prepared. Remember when grocery store shelves were half bare? Those were only able to get filled back up because there's only so much food and toilet paper people can store. The panic buying stopped, allowing manufacturers to catch up. I actually work in food manufacturing at the corporate level; I was able to see what was going on behind the scenes and I can tell you if people were still buying food like they are ammo, we'd be in a LOT of trouble. Things are really just now starting to get somewhat back to normal for us, but there's still times we struggle to get things like glass jars or plastic bottles. But the ammo manufacturers haven't had the luxury of anything slowing down to even catch their breath.
 
Ammo manufactures are not going to just build new factory's. They may increase or add shifts but its stupid to build new manufacturing for what very well may be a temporary thing. And if Biden does tax ammo it could cause sales to eventually fall. The other thing is if Biden can get a law passed by congress that taxes or bans some ammo or guns and mags it is not going to be an easy lift to get it repealed. If it were not for the sundown on the 94 crime bill ban on some guns and mags it would still be with us. They have learned and there will not be a sun down next time. So many ways the Dems can cause problems with gun ownership.
 
castile said:
Ammo manufactures are not going to just build new factory's. They may increase or add shifts but its stupid to build new manufacturing for what very well may be a temporary thing. And if Biden does tax ammo it could cause sales to eventually fall.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Like any wise business venture, though, if one has good people who have foresight running a company, they are always looking to expand a bit. For example, spend a bit more for a lease and have some extra room to add some machinery if needed. Lots of companies don't do that. They cram as much as possible into a space that they can afford at the time, and then wonder why it might cost so much to move, etc. Of course, there are limits to that, too, but any good business mind should have that in the back of their head as time moves on.
 
bassjam said:
A normal election cycle is nothing like what is happening now. You could still buy ammo in 2008 for the most part, though there was a slight panic buy. Things were fine in 2012 until Sandy Hook and the subsequent talk of gun control. I don't remember even the slightest shortage in 2016 and the entire country was almost certain that Clinton would win that election! Those were still the days of $500 AR15's and $0.17/round 9mm. Covid caught EVERYONE by surprise and was the match that started this fire. You could still buy whatever ammo you wanted, at great prices, up until Feb/March of 2020. You could still buy toilet paper and Lysol then too, but panic buying wiped out store shelves of those items as well. Had Covid not happened, there was a much, MUCH greater chance of Trump winning re-election. I'd say it was an almost certainty. Things were good, especially the economy, and voters are reluctant to change things when the economy is strong. The "political unrest and riots" you speak of got much worse in 2020 after people were suddenly off work with nothing better to do, which again fed fuel to the fire Covid started. What's going on right now is truly unprecedented and there is no way anyone could have been prepared. Remember when grocery store shelves were half bare? Those were only able to get filled back up because there's only so much food and toilet paper people can store. The panic buying stopped, allowing manufacturers to catch up. I actually work in food manufacturing at the corporate level; I was able to see what was going on behind the scenes and I can tell you if people were still buying food like they are ammo, we'd be in a LOT of trouble. Things are really just now starting to get somewhat back to normal for us, but there's still times we struggle to get things like glass jars or plastic bottles. But the ammo manufacturers haven't had the luxury of anything slowing down to even catch their breath.
Click to expand...

$0.17 9mm? I was getting steel case 9mm for $0.13 a shot throughout 2019.
 
NuShootr said:
Like any wise business venture, though, if one has good people who have foresight running a company, they are always looking to expand a bit.
Click to expand...
Well, the "good people" in charge of the company where I worked for 27years had the "foresight" to move their operations to China. Maybe that's what the ammunition companies should do.:D
Sorry, I don't mean to sound like a wise guy. It's just that I don't know much about business. I did electrical maintenance work for a living, so ask me to troubleshoot a motor control circuit, and I'll do you up right. But ask me to troubleshoot why ammo companies are far too often (IMO) unable to keep up with demand these days, and I'll tell you I really don't have a clue.o_O
BTW, when my wife and I were into IHMSA back in the '80s, and the International Championship was held in northern Idaho, we toured the CCI/Speer factories in Lewiston. They were pretty neat facilities, and we enjoyed the tour. I wouldn't have wanted to work there though - I don't think they paid all that well.;)
 
So with a billion plus dollars of orders on the line, and that usually comes with an expiration, they cannot add some capacity? Five years from now, hey, we got that ammo you wanted, somehow that will just likely not work. Nah, I do not want a billion dollars, I would have to hire a few more employees and add a few machines, invest a few million for a billion, nah, why bother. And we wonder why everything is made in China today, with management heads stuck in the sand like that, it is a wonder we are not speaking Chinese.
 
3Crows said:
So with a billion plus dollars of orders on the line, and that usually comes with an expiration, they cannot add some capacity?
Click to expand...

No...actually they can't. That would take months to plan and execute. They can't just snap their fingers and suddenly have the materials, extra machinery, larger work space, the ability to make sure the all that extra ammo is up to standards, the capacity to pack and ship the ammunition out, and hire enough skilled people to do all that. It's not a matter of that moving to China. It's a matter of making sure your product adheres to the standards your customers expect.
 
That guy is up to his ears in the brown stinky stuff. According to him the years of Oboom boom were lean, and now they are bust and they were caught flat footed? Really? And now he whines about a brass shortage? Oh boo hoo. He is just a terrible business man. I mean...TERRIBLE. Any business with a demand for product, like ammo has now, would be moving mountains to meet the demand. They have had a year, at least, to adjust their business model and they didn't do it. You want to run some numbers? Look at the price of .38 special on Gunbroker. Are you willing to pay $2.00 a round for .38 special? REALLY? I don't understand why some entrepreneurs haven't just rented a few machines and started cranking out .38 special. Seriously, why can't FEDERAL rent a warehouse and some machines and meet the freakin demand? I don't get it. Why doesn't Federal CONTRACT out some work? Seems to me there are a lot of factories in America capable of tooling up in pretty short notice to make ammo for a couple of years. Just saying.
 
Commader47 said:
Seriously, why can't FEDERAL rent a warehouse and some machines and meet the freakin demand? I don't get it. Why doesn't Federal CONTRACT out some work? Seems to me there are a lot of factories in America capable of tooling up in pretty short notice to make ammo for a couple of years. Just saying.
Click to expand...

Probably because their profit margin has gone down during all this. Materials costs are up. They may not be able to keep as much staff as necessary due to new COVID restrictions. Shipping and packing costs more as well. Who would they contract out the work to if there are limited supply of materials, or the machinery isn't available? Sounds like you have an excellent business plan. When can we expect you to have ammo available for purchase?
 
I would assume the ammo line's equipment is mostly custom machinery, tools, and dies, etc. The companies that make the equipment probably make the same equipment for all of the other factories, not just ammo factories, that are all maxed out in production. Even if there was no demand, it takes at least a year to custom order and put together a production line, and it ain't cheap.

I'm in automotive manufacturing and most OEM's are having to shift around schedules because of parts shortages. There is so much pent up demand for everything right now. Raw materials and some parts are running out. It's a crazy time right now.

Everyone is sitting home counting their money from their stimulus checks, can't travel or vacation, so they get bored and just buy stuff. Like guns and ammo.
 
NuShootr said:
No...actually they can't. That would take months to plan and execute. They can't just snap their fingers and suddenly have the materials, extra machinery, larger work space, the ability to make sure the all that extra ammo is up to standards, the capacity to pack and ship the ammunition out, and hire enough skilled people to do all that. It's not a matter of that moving to China. It's a matter of making sure your product adheres to the standards your customers expect.
Click to expand...

That is where some planning would have come in and trend study. Not like this is the first time. And now really over a year into it they have not been able to adjust to take advantage of the opportunity presented (like the billion dollars of pent up demand he claims).
 
BigAlShooter said:
I would assume the ammo line's equipment is mostly custom machinery, tools, and dies, etc. The companies that make the equipment probably make the same equipment for all of the other factories, not just ammo factories, that are all maxed out in production. Even if there was no demand, it takes at least a year to custom order and put together a production line, and it ain't cheap.
Click to expand...
Absolutely true - these sorts of capital investments need to be made 12mo-24mo in advance.

3Crows said:
That is where some planning would have come in and trend study. Not like this is the first time.
Click to expand...
As is this.

Every corporation operates on annual planning cycles, in which market demand is folded into business strategies across the year intended to meet that demand and harvest that revenue. It's not like everyone in the firearms industry didn't see how an election year might alter the steady-state market dynamics; we've seen it every election cycle since the AWB sunsetted in 2004. If Federal, or anyone else, took a 'wait-and-see' attitude instead of investing for a possible / likely sales increase, well, that was a business decision that they need to publicly own. Coming out and pretending that this was not foreseeable is frankly nonsensical.
 
I think there is more going on than just people buying more ammo. Midway USA has not received significant amounts of handgun ammo in a long time. I have signed up for notifications when in stock, and am hardly ever getting sent a notification that something is in stock. I am suspicious there is more going on here than meets the eye.
 
3Crows said:
That is where some planning would have come in and trend study. Not like this is the first time. And now really over a year into it they have not been able to adjust to take advantage of the opportunity presented (like the billion dollars of pent up demand he claims).
Click to expand...

No one could have planned for what happened during COVID. You speak as if the ammo industry is the only one caught in this limbo. Do me a favor. Can you please find me some free weights? Or how about Bones Skateboard wheels? Or Thunder Trucks for skateboards? Ice skates? Steel for making knives? This is happening in just about every consumer goods industry. As people are saying, this was the perfect storm. What good would all this planning have done if raw materials are either impossible to find, or astronomically priced? Then, of course, there are people hoarding all kinds of things to cut a profit. Not just in firearms and ammo.
Do you have the capital to start an ammo manufacturing plant? Seems like everyone is pointing the finger for someone else to do it. Go for it!! Sounds like there is a tidy profit to be made! I'd 100% buy from you. When can I place my first order?
 
NuShootr said:
No one could have planned for what happened during COVID. You speak as if the ammo industry is the only one caught in this limbo. Do me a favor. Can you please find me some free weights? Or how about Bones Skateboard wheels? Or Thunder Trucks for skateboards? Ice skates? Steel for making knives? This is happening in just about every consumer goods industry. As people are saying, this was the perfect storm. What good would all this planning have done if raw materials are either impossible to find, or astronomically priced? Then, of course, there are people hoarding all kinds of things to cut a profit. Not just in firearms and ammo.
Do you have the capital to start an ammo manufacturing plant? Seems like everyone is pointing the finger for someone else to do it. Go for it!! Sounds like there is a tidy profit to be made! I'd 100% buy from you. When can I place my first order?
Click to expand...

Looks like free weights, Bones Skateboard wheels, Thunder Trucks, and ice skates are all in stock at Amazon.
 
Balrog said:
Looks like free weights, Bones Skateboard wheels, Thunder Trucks, and ice skates are all in stock at Amazon.
Click to expand...

Damn dude!! You are a miracle worker!!

See some of those prices? Yep. I do, too. $62 bucks for a pair of 10lb weights. Why can't the free weight industry catch up already??!! I was paying $20 for those last year!!
 
Balrog said:
I am not sure what your point is. Ammo is priced at around 3x its normal price, and its not in stock anywhere.
Click to expand...

There is plenty of ammo available. If you want to pay those prices. That's the point. Just like I can get free weights, skateboard wheels, skateboard trucks and myriad of other things for 3X the price of what they were in 2019. So again, why haven't these other industries caught up to demand, yet?
 
NuShootr said:
There is plenty of ammo available. If you want to pay those prices. That's the point. Just like I can get free weights, skateboard wheels, skateboard trucks and myriad of other things for 3X the price of what they were in 2019. So again, why haven't these other industries caught up to demand, yet?
Click to expand...


There isn't plenty of ammo available. It is very limited.

Could you post some links to available 357 Magnum ammo for no more than 3X the usual price? Before all this, you could get 357 for about 40 cents a round. Show me where you can get it for $1.20/round or less.
 
Last edited:
NuShootr said:
No...actually they can't. That would take months to plan and execute. They can't just snap their fingers and suddenly have the materials, extra machinery, larger work space, the ability to make sure the all that extra ammo is up to standards, the capacity to pack and ship the ammunition out, and hire enough skilled people to do all that. It's not a matter of that moving to China. It's a matter of making sure your product adheres to the standards your customers expect.
Click to expand...
3Crows said:
That is where some planning would have come in and trend study. Not like this is the first time. And now really over a year into it they have not been able to adjust to take advantage of the opportunity presented (like the billion dollars of pent up demand he claims).
Click to expand...
Maybe they did and came to the same conclusion that it was mine the last run in ammo. It was shorter lived. I don’t think there was any way to anticipate a 7m person jump in consumers.
 
Honestly until someone posts hard data on the increase in material costs, a decrease in availability/importation, which is a a problem for many industries including the lumber industry were all just running around in circles.

I’d be interested in hearing from importers and manufacturers of raw materials.
 
I keep hearing about this seven million new shooters. What 6.9 million of them are likely the most casual of gun owners who are unlikely to shoot a box or two a year. They will also likely sell the (1) gun they bought in a panic before they buy more ammunition. I just not buying into that as a significant player in the current shortage. It may have been the tipping point but I do not see many of these new shooters out perusing the bare ammo shelves. What I do see is the same old fellas that where haunting Walmart Thursday nights at 4AM in the morning when they put the ammo out. Whatever the cause(s) are it is hard to see that after an eight year long shortage just four years ago nothing was learned. And, truthfully, the shelves were never all that full in the last four years, with such continuous demand and again, per the presidents (of federal) words a billion dollar market, really!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

huntsman
  • Locked
Obama Signs Firearm And Ammo Killswitch
Replies
6
Views
933
BullfrogKen
B
Brubz
  • Locked
About the ammo shortage
Replies
3
Views
602
Robert
Robert
Q
  • Locked
There is no Ammo Shortage
2 3
Replies
72
Views
6K
SOUTHPAW
S
M
  • Locked
Ammo shortage forces Police use Airsoft to train!
Replies
7
Views
600
9mmepiphany
9mmepiphany
G
  • Locked
An interesting take on ammo shortages from G and A
2
Replies
28
Views
2K
Tom609
Tom609
Back
Top