There is no simple answer about gunpowder lifetime other than it is "indeterminate". That is, unknowable. Determining when it goes bad is beyond the predictive tools of this era, and has been that way, since the stuff came out in the 1888's. Human lifetime more or less falls into the same category. Ask your Doctor what year you will catch prostate cancer. That way, you can avoid all those prostate cancer exams till then.
Gunpowder breaks down, it is breaking down from the day it leaves the factory and to date, the only reliable measure of shelf life is the percentage of stabilizer left in the gunpowder.
This is a long military document on that:
Ammunition Surveillance Procedures SB 742-1
Chapter 13 Propellant and Propelling Charges
page 13-1
WARNING
Nitrocellulose-based propellant can become thermally unstable as the age. The normal aging process of the propellants involves deterioration of the nitrocellulose with an accompanying generation of heat. At some point, the propellant may reach a state where heat is generated faster than it can be dissipated. The accumulation of heat can lead to combustion (autoignition). Chemical stabilizers are added to propellants to slow the aging process. In time, the stabilizer levels will drop to a point where the remaining effective stabilizer (RES) is not sufficient to prevent an accelerating rate of decomposition. When this point is reached, the propellant may autoigniet, with possible catastrophic results to property and life. Monitoring the stability level of each propellant lot is essential for continued safe storage.
Page 13-5 , Table 13.2 Propellant Stability Codes.
Stability Category A 0.30 or more Percent Effective Stabilizer
Acceptable stabilizer loss: safe for continued storage
C 0.29-0.20 Percent Effective Stabilizer
Significant stabilizer loss. Lot does not represent an immediate hazard, but is approaching a potentially hazardous stability condition. Loss of stabilizer does adversely affect function in an uploaded configuration. Disposition instructions will be furnished by NAR. All stability category “C” assests on the installation must be reported in writing…
One year after becoming stability category “C” a sample of the bulk propellant lot or the bulk-packed component lot will be retested. If the lot has not deteriorated to category “D”, it will be retested each year until it has been expended, or it has deteriorated to category “D”, at which point it will be demilitarized within 60 days.
D Less than 0.20 Percent Effective Stabilizer
Unacceptable stabilizer loss. Lots identified as stability category “D” present a potential safety hazard and are unsafe for continued storage as bulk, bulk-packed components , or as separate loading propellant chargers. Bulk propellant, bulk –packed components and separate loading propelling charges will be demilitarized within 60 days after notification of category “D” status.
I found that the 20% stabilizer criteria is based on a five year safe storage assumption. If there is 20% stabilizer left, then that gives the military enough time to pack the stuff up, ship it to a demilling facility, and not have the gunpowder burst in fire along the way.
You however don't have gas chromatography equipment, unless you can afford the TNO system mentioned in their
sales literature. This is also interesting T
he delicate matter of lifetime. Last I looked, one of those portable gas chromatography machines was a quarter million bucks. Chump change for some, but not for me.
This is what the Army said about clock time, and ammunition lifetime
Army Not Producing Enough Ammunition
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2003/May/Pages/Army_Not3866.aspx
Regardless of what the Army decides to do with its industrial base, the fundamental issue does not change: the Army needs to produce more war reserve ammunition, Naughton said. Time is running out, he said. “Most of the ammunition in the stockpile today was built 20 years ago during the Cold War buildup.” Most rounds are designed to have a shelf life of 20 years. “We are outside the envelope of the shelf life on 40 percent or more of our existing ammunition. The rest is rapidly approaching the end of its shelf life.”
Ammunition does not “go bad” overnight, after it reaches a certain age, but “once it’s over 20 years old, the reliability rapidly degrades,” said Naughton. Within a few years, it will become increasingly difficult to shoot it. “You can predict that you’ll lose 7-8 percent of the ammo after the 20-year mark.”*
To replace the obsolete rounds, the Army would have to produce 100,000 tons of war reserve ammunition a year for the next seven years. Past that point, it would need 50,000 tons to 60,000 tons a year to sustain the stockpile. That represents about “half the level of the Cold War buildup,” he said.
* I think what is meant, 7-8 percent per year after 20 years.
So what do you do with loaded ammunition? I recommend shooting up self defense ammunition before it it ten years old. Conservative yes, but is your life worth a box of new ammunition? Some don't think so, and will angrily reply in such a way, that you can see their value system. I recommend shooting all ammunition and gunpowder up before it is 20 years old, and I have had kegs of gunpowder go bad around the twenty year mark.
Old stuff, pull a bullet and look for corrosion inside the case.
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This ammunition, the gunpowder is bad, did not find corrosion inside the case, but all the case necks splits, along with body splits.
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This was surplus powder sold to me, from Pat's at Camp Perry. At the time, I did not know that surplus military powders were junked because they had 20% stabilizer or less. I talked to Pat and he was clueless about powder lifetime. Or he was lying, I just hope he was clueless.
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If the ammunition you are shooting develops a high number of body splits and case neck cracks, stop shooting it. The best you can do is pull the bullets, the cases are ruined, and so is the gunpowder.
And the last one, if your old ammunition blows up your weapon, don't shoot it in another. I contend that the reason this guy's 50 caliber blew up, was that he was firing 2007 military surplus ammunition that somehow escaped demilling. Almost killed the guy, and clearly ruined his rifle.
But if you want certainty, because all humans crave predictability, certainty, and control, you are not going to find it. I do think that is where most of the push back comes from the deniers. They want a predictable, controllable, and certain future. They cannot live in an ambiguous universe. However, the universe always wins in the end. There are two things that are certain, one of them is taxes, and the other
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