New demand signals

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Vista did expand with its acquisition of Remington. I doubt we will see any more large scale capital investments from Vista or Olin. This may be a good time for companies like Norma to grow. I would think companies in Russia would just start routing ammo through other countries. Wouldn't surprise me to find PPU, S&B or some other company from the former com-bloc region start offering a "new" steel cased line of ammo that has a slight hint of cat pee when fired:D
 
I heard last fall that Sig was expanding. Part of that was some primer manufacturing for internal use. That should help them to be more vertically integrated.

I think part of Remington’s downfall was they invested heavily in a new plant expansion after the last shortage and then the bottom fell out of the market. They were practically giving ammunition away. It’s hard to pay the bills when you have to pay for all that capital expense.
 
WeekendReloader said:
I heard last fall that Sig was expanding. Part of that was some primer manufacturing for internal use. That should help them to be more vertically integrated.

I think part of Remington’s downfall was they invested heavily in a new plant expansion after the last shortage and then the bottom fell out of the market. They were practically giving ammunition away. It’s hard to pay the bills when you have to pay for all that capital expense.
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While removing a huge amount of Russian ammunition I think would be a much better a long-term demand signal then just A Market Spike like we were having
 
AJC1 said:
While removing a huge amount of Russian ammunition I think would be a much better a long-term demand signal then just A Market Spike like we were having
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Well, not to drag the subject too far into academia but if you read about the various bans and bounties used throughout history to effect some market entity I think you’ll find they tend to have an opposite effect from their intent. Read about The Cobra Effect as an example.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
Well, not to drag the subject too far into academia but if you read about the various bans and bounties used throughout history to effect some market entity I think you’ll find they tend to have an opposite effect from their intent. Read about The Cobra Effect as an example.
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I havent been ammo aware very long but your position is well supported by the amount of Norma. I have never seen norma on the shelf until recently. I believe it's a good quality product and at a decent price.
 
Should we have a market contraction as this is happening supplies of ammo will be strangled for a long time to come. Might be what they are planning. This bubble is not sustainable. Might be soon happy to have a bunch of .22 on hand after all.
 
FROGO207 said:
Should we have a market contraction as this is happening supplies of ammo will be strangled for a long time to come. Might be what they are planning. This bubble is not sustainable. Might be soon happy to have a bunch of .22 on hand after all.
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Following my own rule I believe less ammo was the goal, I was hoping the response would be an in country industry stepping up to fill that need.
 
Dangerous to plan based on politicians. The ban could be (unlikely I know as Bush and Clinton bans are still in place) switched by the next administration or over ruled somehow. Someone could build a new plant just in time for the ban to be lifted.

Now, the 10,000,0000 or so new gun owners, that is different. May wane a bit over time but I don't see them all going away in one sudden event.

I'm not a business person though.
 
The demand to change from steel case crap to regular brass case would be a cleaner nicer range. I cant say if all steel production was shifted to brass would be bad. The demand for brass would go up, but us recyclers love to get a lit of uses out of the same case. I may bring more into the reloading fold, and it changes shooting habits. Mag dumps with 20 dollars of ammo is a lot different than 40 rounds you spent hours carefully assembling.
 
If we lose access to inexpensive steel ammo, I would suggest that a little range courtesy will be in order. As in, the brass scavengers better wait until the shooter packs up and leaves, before rustling around trying to grab all his brass.

I say this as a guy who doesn't reload brass, and also cleans up his cases, whether steel, brass or aluminum. Going forward, I will keep mine, whether I reload it or not. I used to not mind donating brass to reloaders, but a lot of the snide comments have left a sour taste in my mouth towards them.
 
lsudave said:
If we lose access to inexpensive steel ammo, I would suggest that a little range courtesy will be in order. As in, the brass scavengers better wait until the shooter packs up and leaves, before rustling around trying to grab all his brass.

I say this as a guy who doesn't reload brass, and also cleans up his cases, whether steel, brass or aluminum. Going forward, I will keep mine, whether I reload it or not. I used to not mind donating brass to reloaders, but a lot of the snide comments have left a sour taste in my mouth towards them.
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Isn't range courtesy always in order. Hell the range for me is social hour. My kid empties cases so I can fill them back up. Sorry you have rubbed elbows with bad people. I think meth head scrap chasers hurt our image but I cant fix that.
 
No, it's all good; a little forum courtesy on my part would be good too. No sense of growling like an angry bear. I thought about the tone of that post after I entered it, but what's said is said. I'm not usually that irritable, but this year has worn on me. I think it's done that to everyone; I watch traffic and folks are just plain crazy out there right now.

*disclaimer, I work in healthcare, in a big hospital. This second spike in covid is catching everyone by surprise, I think we thought life was coming back to normal. And now I'm watching Hurricane Ida projections; it's pointed straight at me. Oh well,... at least I don't have to worry about working o_O, although I could USE a break.
 
lsudave said:
No, it's all good; a little forum courtesy on my part would be good too. No sense of growling like an angry bear. I thought about the tone of that post after I entered it, but what's said is said. I'm not usually that irritable, but this year has worn on me. I think it's done that to everyone; I watch traffic and folks are just plain crazy out there right now.

*disclaimer, I work in healthcare, in a big hospital. This second spike in covid is catching everyone by surprise, I think we thought life was coming back to normal. And now I'm watching Hurricane Ida projections; it's pointed straight at me. Oh well,... at least I don't have to worry about working o_O, although I could USE a break.
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I hear ya, brother. I work for a big healthcare group, too, public sector, but I'm just a programmer not a doc. Traffic is kids on scooters and patients for five different hospitals, two private and one big VA facility. I hate the daily two to three hours of commuting but turning on the playlist (big band) and not caring about how long it takes to get places makes it not so bad. I could work from home easier that in my office if the phone and cell service out here in the sticks weren't so bad but it is so I can't. Best of luck and dn't worry about being a bear every once in a while.
 
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There is potentially a ton more money to be made by domestic ammo producers if Tio Jose’s Russian ammo ban works as the anti’s intended

But, it’ll take a ton of capital outlay to increase production… and I’m not sure the purse-string controllers will shell out money to speculate after the last ammo-crunch collapse left piles of guns and ammo not selling in warehouses. (Oh, if we only knew!)

This, plus the Covid-exacerbated supply chain issues from raw material suppliers to production line workers are still causing massive headaches all over.

Time will tell I guess…

Stay safe.
 
Russia will just route their stuff through other countries. May come with a different name and logo in the future. If the Russion CEOs are as forward looking as one would hope all business leaders should be, rebranded ammo may even already be on it's way here way if not already at the ports of entry.
 
Hooda Thunkit said:
If this isn't a signal for the domestic ammo manufacturer to expand,
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That's a complicated calculus.

A brand new factory building takes a year to build.

Needing to buy more machines means finding the machines to buy and install--and reloading equipment is made-to-order, not off-the-shelf, as a general rule.

Adding shifts is equally complicated. There are productivity and QC declines in 2nd & 3rd shift work in every industry in shift work. This is well-known and well studied. 2nd & 3rd shift work has a higher labor rate (often mandated by contract).

And, all that presumes that the company in question has the cash in hand to buy the raw material to feed into either new machines or new shifts, or both.

Which then dovetails into the far larger question of whether available logistics exist to move the finished product off the factory floor and out to wholesalers (it does not make you a dime sitting on a pallet waiting for a truck or a rail car).

The margins in ammo manufacture are some tight, the market has ebbs and flows, just because you make it does not mean "they" will buy it.
 
Seems as if there is an ammo shortage exacerbated by the lack of Russian ammo, to make more profit without building new factories or adding shifts, all the existing American producers will have to do is raise prices.

We've seen in the past how people scramble for ammo, and if Gunbroker is any example, the sky's the limit for what they will pay.
 
AJC1 said:
I havent been ammo aware very long but your position is well supported by the amount of Norma. I have never seen norma on the shelf until recently. I believe it's a good quality product and at a decent price.
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Got some Norma ammo recently at a very good price online. It's made in Hungary. Seems like good quality ammo.
 
bersaguy said:
Vista did expand with its acquisition of Remington. I doubt we will see any more large scale capital investments from Vista or Olin. This may be a good time for companies like Norma to grow. I would think companies in Russia would just start routing ammo through other countries. Wouldn't surprise me to find PPU, S&B or some other company from the former com-bloc region start offering a "new" steel cased line of ammo that has a slight hint of cat pee when fired:D
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FWIW, I imagine they’ll do exactly that: simply move it to a friendly nation and re-brand it.

China does this with honey.
 
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