You would lose that bet. Many people here do think about different scenarios and formulate plans
Really? How many people here have thought through the scenario that when something wakes them up in the night that they might look outside and see all their car doors open?
I remember the first night we were hit by mortar rounds in Vietnam when I was there. The air base had been hit before and I'd been shown where the bunkers were - down by the flightline. So you had to grab your stuff (paraphrased), and head down between the huts to the bunkers.
It was several weeks between my arrival and the first night that we got hit and my locker had gotten a little messy. Alright, alright, it was in quite a state of disarray with books and junk. So when we got hit exactly at midnight, I was already asleep, but jumped up, got my stuff - except I couldn't find my two loaded magazines. I pulled out the underwear drawer at the bottom and a big rat jumped out. At this point I got completely in touch with my feminine side and screamed like a woman. Forget the magazines - I got to the bunkers just as the attack was over. Lack of detailed planning on my part could have gotten me killed - that would never happen again. (I never saw the rat again either - I may have shattered his ear drums).
Several months later: it was Sunday morning and quiet. I woke up and looked at my watch. It was after 8AM. I was in deep trouble because I was supposed to be in the command post by 8AM. As I started to get out of the bunk there was an enormous explosion and the florescent lights came crashing to the pavement. It was followed by more explosions. We thought we were being bombed by the North. The explosions were coming from the flightline, which is where the bunkers were. It turned out that it was an 'accidental' explosion of one of the bombs, which set off a chain reaction. No one knew what was going on nor what to do. We hunkered down in the hut, and no one ever said anything about me being late for work.
What scenario could we possibly have thought of that would have prepared us for the base blowing up? The Air Force later published a safety film about all that went wrong at Bien Hoa that morning, and I was able to get a copy of it, but how could we as the troops ever envisioned what might go wrong where we wouldn't be safe going to the bunker?
My point in all of this is that you may be able to think of certain scenarios, but when suddenly in a deep sleep something happens, you don't always think as clearly as you do sitting in front of a computer screen.